Da' Bears Blog

Bears vs Packers: Notes and Numbers

Friday, December 9, 2005 | Dave

(Here are the random notes and numbers that I found interesting about last week’s game while pouring over any and all press coverage. This one’s a long one, even for me.)

DEFENSE:

They bent more than they have in other games but the only breaking they did was with Farve.
Farve claims he was beaten up more last week against the Bears than any other game this season. He was sacked twice, fumbled 3 times and threw 2 INTs. His 8 game winning streak and his streak of 26 consecutive games against the Bears with a TD pass finally came to an end.

He attempted 58 passes. Only once in the other 1,202 games in Bears’ history has an opposing QB tried more. That was Randall Cunningham who tried 62 times in 1989.

Individual Performers:

Brian Urlacher: 16 tackles, (13 solo) and 2 PD, one of which he almost, and should’ve intercepted.

Lance Briggs: 16 tackles, 3 PD, 1 Fumble recovery

Charles Tillman: 6 tackles, 1 sack, 3 PD, 1 FF and 1 INT returned 95 yrd to the Packers 7yrd line, the 4th largest return in Bears’ history. He also recovered one of Davis’ muffed punt returns. Monster Day for a player I often strongly criticize.

Nathan Vasher: 4 tackles, 1 PD and 1 INT returned 45 yrds for a TD. The man hawks balls. It really is ridiculous. He simply has more ballhawk. He’s in the running for the Pro Bowl if he doesn’t get to go that’ll be a travesty.

Mike Brown: 5 tackles, 1 sack, 1 FF.

Tommie Harris: 2 tackles, 1 FF.

The Bears are now tied with the Vikings and the 49ers with 5 scoring returns this year. (Wade’s punt return against Detroit, Brown’s sixth career INT returned for TD, Tillman’s game winner against Detroit in OT, Vasher’s record setting missed field goal return against the 49ers, and Vasher’s return this week.) Currently the Bears’ D has 7 players that combine for 19 career TDs.

On the flip side the Bears are 1 of 5 teams that haven’t given up a TD return yet this season.

The Packers had the 5th rated red zone offense. The Bears stopped them on 2 of 3 trips inside. The Bears have given up just 6 red zone TDs, which equals a mere 20% of opponents possessions in their 20yrd line. They are the only team under 40% and every other team has allowed at least 11 TDs.

OFFENSE:

The story here was not so good. Actually the passing game was abysmal. The running game was solid and dependable as ever and is maligned when people lump it in with the passing game.

The Bears had 188 yrds of offense.
They had more than double the INT-return yardage (140) as it did passing yards (68).
They started 5 of their 13 drives in Packers territory and didn’t produce a single TD.
They were 0-10 on 3rd down conversions.
In comparison the Packers had 358 total yards and 26 first downs.

It was the first time this season that the Bears failed to score a TD after reaching the red zone. They have a 45.5% success rate in the red zone with 15 TDs in 33 possessions.

Individual Performers:

Thomas Jones: 93 yrds on 19 carries. He now has 1,005 yrds on the season the first time he has ever gone over 1,000.

Adrian Peterson: 48 yrds on 11 carries. He really had some solid runs too. I really like this guy.

Bernard Berrian: 3 catches for 59 yrds. That is 50% of the Bears receptions and 100% of its net passing yards.

Moose and Gage: 0 receptions for 0 yards.

Orton: 6-of-17, 68 yrds, 1 INT and a passer rating of 23.7. His net passing yards was actually 49 due to him taking 3 sacks for a negative 19 yards due to his instance on holding onto the ball for 6 and 7 second counts.

The last time the Bears won with such a poor performance was with the immortal Craig Krenzel who had a 19.3 rating against the Titans. On the season he has a 53.4 completion percentage, 9 TDs and 13 INTs. The benched and disgraced Joey Harrington has a higher rating.

The Packers had the 23rd ranked run D in the league. The Bears attempted a pass on 5 of their first 7 plays. They didn’t score on those possessions. Then with a 12-7 lead and trying to ice it with 4:14 left in the game, the Bears opted for a handoff to TJ on 3rd and 10 instead of attempting a pass. Quite a shift in confidence in the QB over the course of a game.

There are rumors of the Bears’ offensive calling on Orton to step up during one huddle during the game, and Moose has been making his feelings known after going without a catch for the first time in 51 games including playoffs.

Personally I feel that Orton has this week to perform or else Rex starts.

SPECIAL TEAMS:

Maynard really deserves a trip to the Pro Bowl whatever his numbers. He dropped a snap and on the run still got off a 34 yarder. And when Hillenmeyer got flagged as an ineligible receiver on a poor Maynard punt that ended on the Packers 24 they were dumb enough to replay the down. Maynard hit a 63 yarder. Even when it rolled into the end zone the touchback putt it at the 20 and cost Green Bay 4 yards. He is so good at pinning opponents on their goal line and letting the D do the rest.

This season Bears’ opponents have driven for a TD after only 4 of Maynard’s last 73 brilliant punts.

Robbie Gould: 3 for 4, and he missed that last one by just 2 yards. He's 15-for-20 on the season and leads rookie kickers in scoring.

The Bears are averaging 27.8 yards per return on 18 interceptions, compared with 4.2 yards per return on 13 picks by their opponents. This has been attributed to Lovie's demand on the practice field that they treat any loose ball as a live ball and try to return it, even if it was just an incomplete pass. Makes the D more opportunistic, and makes the offense better prepared to make tackles.


Quick notes on this week’s game against the Steelers:

There are 229 players in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Of those 43 are from the Bears and Steelers.

The Steelers are 0-5 when they rush for less than 100 yards

The Bears’ red zone D will have their work cut out for them. The Steelers have 7 touchdowns in their last 11 trips in the red zone.

The Bears have lost 31out of the last 35 December/January road games. They have lost 20 of the last 21 road games that were outdoors in Dec/Jan.

Bears Mentioning:

The win last week assured the Bears’ 2nd winning season out of the last 9.

The current 8 game, in-season, win streak, the longest since 1985 is just the 6th in Bears’ history, a span of 86 years.

The Bears have out rushed their opponents for the last 11 consecutive games.
But the offense has only scored more than 1 TD in only 3 games. They have had 1 TD drive of over 8 yards in the last 4 games. They have 17 TDs on the year WHICH IS TWO FEWER THAN LAST YEAR. The passing game is actually worse than last year, averaging 122.1 yards a game. That season we had Rex for 3 games then Quinn/Krenzel/Hutch, an axis of evil if there ever was one. The last time it was this bad was 1978 when Bob Avellini and Mike Phipps averaged 120.8. This is why there is a brewing QB debate, no matter what our record is.

Kreutz and Miller have been fined $50,000 each for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy.

The Bears lead the NFL with 8 interception returns for TDs in their two seasons under Lovie (three this year).
With 4 takeaways to 2 turnovers against the Packers the Bears now have a turnover ration of plus 1. It’s the first time the Bears have been on the positive side since the Cleveland game.

Bears lead the league in percentage of points (88) scored off turnovers with 43.8%, the highest percentage for any team since 2000. Last year they had 74 take away pts, which was tied for 16th in the league. (However those 74 pts were 32% of their pt total which similarly led the NFL.)

Alex Brown has drawn 14 holding penalties and forced 9 false starts this season.

The Bears are 14-9 at the “new� Soldier Field with one game remaining.

When the Colts’ beat the Titans last week they set the record for most consecutive wins by more than 7 pts. The previous record was 11 set by the 1942 Bears.

The Bears have screwed up 9 of the season’s 36 punt returns (25%).

The Bears/Packers game had a 31.1 television rating in Chicago. That’s 30% higher than their season opener and comparable to what the White Sox brought in in their postseason.

Comments

#1 Noah Brier said . . .

One more number --

1,499: Number of words in this entry.

December 9, 2005

#2 revdad said . . .

and one more yet ...
two (out of two): number of times brett favre's last name is misspelled in this otherwise sterling piece of research.

footnote: and it's "poring" (no U)

December 10, 2005

#3 Reverenddave said . . .

I wouldve made this its own post but I am away from my own computers and cant remember the damn web address for posting. So I am attaching Revdad's weekly prediction.

"This morning, I was all set to swallow all my oft-repeated doubts about the
Bears offense (see previous predix for the Vikings, Ravens and Panthers, and
partially the Bucs and Packers) and say the Bears should beat the Steelers.
Roethlisberger's thumb is worse than he and Cowher will admit, their
starting left tackle is out, their running game has gone south, and their
psyche is sagging. Don't take my word for it. Here's what the Pittsburgh
Post-Gazette's Steelers columnist says (short version) in Saturday's paper
...
"The Steelers' injury report lists eight players as probable for the game
tomorrow against the Chicago Bears at Heinz Field, the most prominent of
whom is quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, owner of the most discussed thumb
since Little Jack Horner. ... Not listed under any category, though, is the
collective confidence of the Steelers. At best, it is fractured and
considered very, very questionable after three consecutive losses. ... Right
now, if the Steelers' mental state were any more precarious, the word
"FRAGILE" would be stamped in red across their uniforms. ..."
He goes on:
"Not included in the laundry list of problems was the running game ... In
the past three games, the Steelers have carried 78 times for 251 yards, an
average of 3.2 yards per carry. "We're just not on the same page," said
running back Willie Parker, who will start against the Bears. "Once we're on
the same page, we'll be all right." But Parker, who had four 100-yard games
in his first six starts, hasn't had a 100-yard rushing game since Oct. 23 in
Cincinnati. ... What's more, Duce Staley is expected to be inactive against
the Bears because the Steelers will use Verron Haynes as the third-down
back. ..."

That all sounds good.

But then I learn (from a delivery guy at the Athens grocery store, of all
places) that Mike Brown is out. MIKE BROWN IS OUT? Wow, is that a big uh-oh
... Neither regular starting safety available? Uh-oh some more. Todd
Johnson and Mike Green vs. Hines Ward? Uh-oh, uh-oh, uh-oh.

More on this later. But first, predictions from other experts. Note,
however, that all were made prior to revelation of the calf injury that
transfixed Chicago.

The line: Steelers by 6
Tribune: Steelers 17, Bears 7. "Steelers can't run, Bears can't throw."
Sun-Times: Steelers 21, Bears 10
Novacek: Interestingly, the headline on Novacek's picks on the web says
"Steelers win big." But his actual prediction doesn't say that at all -- he
does pick the Steelers, but apparently mainly because the game's in
Pittsburgh. "This will be a very interesting game," he says. "These are two
outstanding defenses."
Gary Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Bears 16, Steelers 14.
(Intriguing reversal of opinion between the Chicago and Pitt
prognosticators.)

Every time I've predicted disaster for the Bears, they've fooled me.
Usually, I've bet against them partly on the basis of other teams' good
defenses -- Carolina, Baltimore. But I've finally come to realize THAT MAKES
NO DIFFERENCE. The Bears' offense, at least the passing offense, will stink
whether they play a good defense or, um, the 49ers. Steelers' defense is
good (and very good against the rush -- 4th in NFL), but Baltimore, Tampa
Bay and Carolina are all better. The Steelers' offense is only so-so (20th
overall, but mainly due to rush, which, as noted above, has slipped last
three games). The Bears should stop Parker and The Bus -- in fact, Todd
Johnson actually is a better run-stopper than Chris Harris. And if Wale &
Co. get to Roethlisberger before Ward and whatzisname at tight end get into
an area where they're a safety's responsibility, Bears will also minimize
passing damage. Sure, Bears need big defense and special teams help, but
what's new there?

So I'm gonna go out on the same limb I planned to climb out on pre-Mike
Brown. Hope I'm not sorry tomorrow.

Bears 19, Steelers 17 (I'm saying four FGs for Robbie Gould.). Bears fans
get another win -- and another nutritious helping of chewed fingernails.

SPECIAL BONUS PREDICTIONS:
If Orton plays lousy and:
-- Bears are down by 10 points or more at start of second half, Grossman
comes in.
--Or, Bears are down by a TD at start of fourth quarter, that's Rex Time
too.
-- Or, Bears are down by any amount with 4 minutes left, Rex the Wonder
Quarterback also gets a shot then.

love, dad

p.s.: Gee, this is about as long as David's numbers/blog entry. But I
spelled everybody's name right. I win."

ive never been down on the whole brevity thing but at least its obvious where that comes from.

December 11, 2005

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