LUCKY THIRTEEN

Thursday, December 1, 2005 | Jeff

The number thirteen has always gotten a bad rap, I think. I am not going to go into some bad Ray Romano routine about all the good thirteens out there but I've always found it ridiculous how buildings leave off the thirteenth floor.

This week's picks are dedicated to the passing of my grandfather, Thomas Robert Hughes Sr. He was a bigtime New York Giants fan and his death ultimately proved anticlimactic. Because if he had lived until this past Sunday, Jay Feeley would surely have killed him.

I'm 86-70-2 on the season and that's a winning percentage of about 56%. They say great gamblers win 65% of the time so I'm not quite there yet. It's going to take a strong finish.

CHICAGO -7 OVER GREEN BAY
I know, I know. Brett Favre blah blah blah. The reason I'm picking the Bears this week is because without Ahman Green, the Packers just don't scare me. That and the Bears have just been terrific at home. The number may be high but I think the Bears can get up early and run right down their throat.

ARIZONA -3 OVER SAN FRANCISCO
I refuse to believe that Alex Smith will win a single game as a rookie quarterback. And let me ask you this: if Mike Nolan could go back and do it again, is there any chance he takes Smith first? I'm betting he'd take Ronnie Brown, Cadillac and maybe even Demarcus (Where?) first.

HOUSTON +8 OVER BALTIMORE
Nobody has given enough airtime to what the Texans accomplished this past weekend. They blew a three-touchdown lead to a fading franchise with a back-up head coach and a third-string rookie quarterback from an Ivy League school. Only Dom Capers, people, only Dom Capers. Even with this, I wouldn't make Kyle Boller an 8-point favorite over Don Bosco Prep.

TENNESSEE +16 OVER INDIANAPOLIS
Here's my answer to the Will-the-Colts-try-for-16-0-this-season debate. Yes. Yes, they will. Because it's the ultimate retaliation to the Bill Bellichick dominance. Think about it: which team willl history remember more? The 3 our 4 championship Pats or the perfect and utterly dominant Colts? I bet the Colts. I don't think Peyton plays the fourth quarter of this game and McNair makes it a two touchdown game.

CLEVELAND +3 OVER JACKSONVILLE
David Garrard. People keep telling me he can play. But I don't like him on the road.

BUFFALO +4 OVER MIAMI
Buffalo has to be the most disappointing team in football this season and their season ended against New England on Sunday nights a few weeks ago. But there's no way Nate Clements is going to let Gussy F beat him.

DETROIT +3 OVER MINNESOTA
Here's why I like the Lions: I'm an idiot. I'm a complete and utter moron. So stupid...really, so stupid. But the Bears defenses always played hard for Dick Jauron and I think you'll see the same Sunday. Jauron won't forcia Garcia into seven-step drops. He'll dink. He'll dunk. This game is a fieldgoal one way or the other and I see Jason Hanson kncoking down a 42 yarder late.

NEW ENGLAND -10 OVER NEW YORK JETS
Tom Brady. Not happy. The Jets. Not a real football team.

OAKLAND +11 OVER SAN DIEGO
Since when is San Diego not involved in a nailbiter eith three minutes left? Vegas will probably bend me over the poker table and slam it's large neon cock in my hole, but I'm taking the points.

TAMPA BAY -3.5 OVER NEW ORLEANS
Man, the Bucs offense impressed me in the fourth quarter against the Bears. They're going to put up 30 against the Saints and I just don't see how America's Team will stay with them.

WASHINGTON -3 OVER ST. LOUIS
Remember the cinderella known as Ryan Fitzpatrick? It's midnight.

PHILADELPHIA +4 OVER SEATTLE
I think the Eagles win outright and here's why: I don't think Seattle is really that good. I don't think they have the linebackers to defend the Andy Reid screen-pass-running game. And I think Jim Johnson and that defense are going to make life as hard on Shaun Alexander as they did on Ladainian Tomlinson.

...and now the four big games of the week...

ATLANTA +3 OVER CAROLINA
I have not been able to get a read on this game all week. I don't think either team is going to run the ball particularly well. I don't think either team is going to throw the ball particularly well. And I think both teams play pretty good special teams. So I found a matchup I like and it's Michael Vick's legs versus the Panthers linebacking corps - they don't have the Brooks or Urlachers to chase him down.

DENVER -1 OF KANSAS CITY
I am usually late to the bandwagon but not here. Denver is going to run right over Kansas City and dicate the entirety of this game. The Pats are not the Pats anymore and Trent Green will not be looking at open receivers all over the field this week.

CINCINNATI +3.5 OVER PITTSBURGH
I watched the "physical" Steelers play a soft game Monday night and the Bengals offense is rolling. 37 two weeks ago. 42 last week. The Colts showed how to beat the Steelers: drop back and throw right at them. Soften them up and then run for first downs. Keep them off-balance all day. I think the Bengals know this: win Sunday and win the division. How much more motivation do you need?

NEW YORK GIANTS -3 OVER DALLAS
The Giants defense might be a bit underrated and especially their defensive ends. Outside of Brown and Ogunleye and Chicago, no two defensive ends are playing better than Strahan and Osi Yakamotouraldjjlduura. Drew Bledsoe. Under pressure. Road game. Interceptions. Loss.

Bet with me this week, kids. I feel the mojo.