WILL THE BEARS BE BETTER OR WORSE IN 2007?
Everyone wants to wait for the draft to answer this. I'm going to go against conventional wisdom and say that it's NOT dependent on the draft. Why? Because I agree with Jeff - I think these dudes know what they are doing, and they are going to get us more studs, whether it be early, late or in between. And we're already stocked.
So here's my analysis, broken out by category.
OFFENSE
O-LINE - Better, because we have the same guys and will be drafting a young stud with one of the higher picks. Plus Rex improving and adding a scrambling dimension will make them look better. (Argument for worse: Old guys just got older).
RECEIVERS - Better, because Berrian, Rashied and Bradley will all be a year more seasoned plus we're sure to add another through the draft. Plus they will benefit from Rex improving. (Argument for worse - if we don't draft a stud, old and getting tired Moose is one year older and tireder).
RUNNING BACKS - Worse, unfortunately. This is a projection but it's hard for me to imagine that Benson & AP can be as good as Benson and Jones were. Plus we'll be crossing fingers all year against injury. (Argument for better - as good as TJ was last year, he took carries away from Benson for much of the season. I do believe Benson is going to make the most of those additional carries this year).
TIGHT END/FULLBACK - Better, especially when Jerry drafts Greg Olsen and Brian Leonard. Seriously, though, a new tight end looks to be in the cards, and both these positions will benefit not only by better Rex but by better play-calling, which better f-ing happen next year. Ron T, you still here? We forget to fire you or something?
QUARTERBACK - Better. Rex's improvement in his second full season will make all other categories better on offense, AND on defense too as they get to stay off the field. He is the single most important factor as to why I think the Bears will be even better in 2007 than the glorious 2006 season.
DEFENSE
D-LINE - Uncertain - Based on how Tommy recovers from his injury, whether Dusty is any good (think he will be), how the new Adams guy does in filling in for a missing Tank.
LINEBACKERS - Worse, unless Lance plays. No argument for better possible.
CORNERS - Same, unless Vash leaves before the season due to trade.
SAFETIES - Better, way better, with MB healthy and teamed with AA. No more needing to split hairs between B-team Chris Harris and B-team Todd Johnson. Two superstuds now in the backfield, countering the potential decline at linebacker. Plus may allow D. Manning to move to corner, thus bolstering them (at least the Bears have suggested this).
SPECIAL TEAMS - Same, which is to say, best in the league. Losses of some key special team players will be made up by BT (that's brain trust). Paging Mr. Hester!
COACHING - Better. Although we lost Ron Rivera, it won't make a difference, and Lovie is proving that he's learning from his mistakes. This year, the Lovie year, with all his guys and his long term visible sign of love and commitment given by the Bears, this is his year to shine, and he won't let his vaunted and becoming-legendary stubbornness derail him from the ultimate prize, even if it means changing up in the middle of the season.
So over all, I score it ---
5 Better
2 Same
1 Uncertain
2 Worse
That all adds up to BETTER IN 2007! Place your bets early folks, BEARS WIN SUPER BOWL XLII!!!
Thanks Jeff, you da man! If it's too long, send it back, crop it, whatever you want. Thanks for creating our home away from home. I can no longer live without it.
Phil
#2 jdawg said . . .Excellent breakdown Phil,
I agree.Can our backfield hold up all season?Gut feeling is yes.My real concern is what is the Defense going to do,with a new D coach.He's got to mold the D into something better than Ron R boys,From last year.A future TE is a must,An a O line stud.Unless Jerry going to buy another O line.
Maybe Bernard an Bradley can be the 1+2 punch we need,W/O drafting a WR.
I think JA will squeeze one more year out of our corners,An see where D Manning develop into.
Lovie got his players,Let win the Division 1st,An a Super Bowl parade should soon follow. Bear Down!April 23, 2007
#3 Pissed off said . . .I basically agree except for TE. Even if we draft one I don't expect instant contribution. Name me the last tight end who made an impact as a rookie, where he was drafted and what system he was in.
April 23, 2007
#4 Phil from SATX said . . .Lets not forget that we thought we'd be drafting a tight end pretty highly last year, when previously we saw no signs from Dez Clark that he would be as good as he was. Now this year we would like to draft a TE again but Dez was decent last year so I still say theres no guarantee we draft one this year. Who knows.
April 23, 2007
#5 Al in WI said . . .Not that anyone was checking the math, but I miscounted - there were 7 areas I scored "better," not 6. So if you want to knock TE down to "same," it's still looking pretty good. I agree with you PO'd, everyone thought we were woefully deficient at tight end going into last year's draft - and not taking one was in large part what made everybody hate that draft and think the BT was nuts. But Dez had a more than solid year, and one that would have qualified as a great year if not for the fall-off in the second half. And for that I'm mostly blaming Ron T.
The key to offensive improvements lies with Rex first, and OL second. Existing skill players on offense will all enjoy a better season with the improvements in Rex and the O-line.
Thanks again Jeff, it's amazing (and really kind of stupid) how much fun it is to see your words up there at the top.
April 23, 2007
#6 Pissed off said . . .Phil, Great job on the column. I would have to agree with most of what you said, including the premise that Rex will improve and that will cause the offense to improve.
However I still say that we need upgrades at wr and te this year. Look at the great qb's out there and they still have great supporting casts, case in point Peyton Manning. Compare what he has to work with to what Rex has to work with.
Right now at wr we have aging Moose who is in decline, and very good Berrian, a solid slot guy in Davis, and an injury prone raw talent in Bradley. That needs to be addressed. A lot of talk has centered on the durability of Benson, but in fact Bradley has a much worse track record. Including playoffs, in two seasons he's missed 17 games with injuries. And he's had major ACL injuries to both legs. I'm not sure you can really count on him too much at this point.
At te Dez Clark had a career year last year. But he was terrible the previous two seasons, and is over 30 with no real depth behind him. Gilmour is a blocker only, and Reid is somewhere in the middle. We lack depth in a big way at this position.
They to supporting Rex's development is giving him weapons. This is an area that desperately needs to be addressed on draft day
April 23, 2007
#7 Phil from SATX said . . .Who's this Adams guy on the D-line, am I that out of touch I dont know who your talking about? Also i dont think we should hand the Defensive player of the year over to Archuleta yet, I dont think he was even starting last year in Washington, we need to get him back to form like he was with the Rams otherwise it was pointless to sign him cuz we have guys that are more productive at that spot than he was last year.
April 23, 2007
#8 Max said . . .PO'd, you're better than that. Come on, man. 3/25/07, Anthony Adams from the 49'ers, if I knew how to post a link I would do so (anyone? a little help?). Oh yeah, I remember you had a baby, that's actually a decent excuse.
Regarding AA, he's one year removed from a Pro Bowl, very highly regarded right up until the point where the stupid Redskins decided they couldn't use him AT ALL. Although Chris Harris and Todd Johnson had their moments, I don't think they were on the verge of any Pro Bowls any time soon. This is going to be a great safety tandem.
Al, thanks for the info on Bradley, when you put it that way it looks worse than I thought. I don't think the season from Dez will be a fluke, but I agree about the mediocrity of the other 2 tight ends we have. I think we can agree that with the exception of linebacker, all picks go to offense (unless they do a trade of Vasher to try to get something from him before he goes unrestricted). So there should be room for TE, WR and OL. Why oh why is it so freaking hard to find a TE? Maybe that's why they'll have to spend up a little on a high pick for one - doesn't seem to be many of them like there are for WR.
Can't wait for Saturday!
April 23, 2007
#9 jdawg said . . .Great breakdown Phil. I agree in almost every respect except TE. . . and in regards to that, I don't know what to think. If we draft Olsen, is he going to be a major impact right off the bat? And I still have some confidence in Dez, so I am going to hold off on the TE situation.
(And one tight end that had instant contribution as a rookie, Antonio Gates to San Diego and I have no idea what system it is\was, but its a good system.)
April 24, 2007
#10 Pissed off said . . .I'm smelling WR's taken if there's one available at the right spot. Like I've said before, reading between the lines last season you get the impression that not all our WR know how to run good routes and make the right adjustments. Grossman threw some real stinkers but Berrian admitted that a healthy chunk of those INTs were on the shoulders of the WRs.
I see AA playing on first downs, sort of like a safety version of HH at LB. If its a passing down he's out of there and Manning comes in.
April 24, 2007
#11 beardown1982 said . . .I agree that I cant wait for Saturday, maybe a draft day trade will be made, maybe we'll unload Briggs or Vash, maybe we'll move up or down, who knows. Its gonna be a good day.
April 24, 2007
#12 Phil from SATX said . . .apparently up to 5 teams are interested in Briggs now...including the Bucs who own the #4 pick. Could be an interesting Saturday.
April 24, 2007
#13 Al in WI said . . .Beardown, where'd you get that? Great news, but I'm not surprised. Remember many weeks ago when we talked about our surprise as to why there weren't teams lining up for Briggs? There is no doubt in my mind that he will be traded on Saturday (or before) and the only thing I will be looking for on that trade is getting a linebacker in return for him, or another, separate pick in addition to the 1st round move up so we can take a linebacker without impacting our original draft plans. I really liked the concept of getting Lemar Marshall from the Redskins in addition to the 6th position, a guy who appears to have upside but would be pushed back in their rotation. Still think the Redskins will end up offering something like that too.
Imagine being able to move up to an elite position in the draft, plus getting the LB gap filled - yes maybe some drop in the linebacker corps, but that's going to happen anyway. Be excited, Bears fans, be very excited. We are going to get some stellar additions to the offensive side of the ball!
April 24, 2007
#14 beardown1982 said . . .Excellent point by Jdawg on the interception angle. I felt that way about several ints this year. Rex had thrown the ball up, and our reciever didn't fight for it. Case in point, the Super Bowl pick by Hayden.
I also thought R Turner's comments during the fan convention about needing another threat to take presure off of Berrian were revealing.April 24, 2007
#15 Megan said . . .According to David Haugh.
April 24, 2007
#16 Scott said . . .Glad to see ole' Briggsy is hopefully is getting outta here and we may get an earlier pick. Things are heating up gentleman! I'm getting all tingly!
April 24, 2007
#17 Fred said . . .Sorry if someone's already posted something about this guy but what about LaVar Arrington? Is he still without a team? I mean, we're about ready to lose a Pro Bowl linebacker, he is a Pro Bowl linebacker...maybe I'm over simplifying but it seems like there's real potential here. I know he used to line up on the strong side but he's a pro, right? He could learn the weak side cover 2, couldn't he? Plus, with a talent like his wouldn't you just move him all over and make the O find a way to keep track of him? Thoughts?
April 25, 2007
#18 JB said . . .Meggles is tingly.
Hang on.
The only real need this team has is at running back. We need another, two don't cut it. Free agency or draft we need another back. It's the only position lacking real depth now.
We gotta go back and win that thing!April 25, 2007
#19 Al in WI said . . .LaVar = No...not worth the 3rd chance for him to produce (2nd chance failed). Running back a need? No, 2 quality RB's is fine, and we will add a 3rd string/special teamer in the 3-5th round...but to say it's a need is a stretch.
I think there is a good chance the whiner gets traded on draft day (I'm thinking the Bills actually)...then I think we draft Patrick Willis or Greg Olsen with that pick, then some combination of WR, TE, LB or OL with the next 2... but everyone is right, the BT will do what's best for the team, especially if it's not in the 1st round.
Or maybe we just trade everything up to get Calvin Johnson...ok, so that won't happen, but what about Dwane Bowe? He looks like he could be the real deal.~Rex for MVP 2007
(Who's with me?)April 25, 2007
Rex MVP, I could see him earning it but being denied because of the national media negativity. Seriously some of the crap he took from espn last season was so over the top I felt like he had stolen one of their wives or something.
April 25, 2007
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