Da' Bears Blog

The Pick: Week Four

Thursday, September 25, 2008 | Jeff

Sixty minutes of good football Sunday night and the Chicago Bears can hit the reset button on the 2008 season. Sixty minutes of good football and the Bears can enter the easiest stretch of their schedule with the momentum of a second primetime upset. Sixty minutes of good football and the defensive collapses against Carolina and Tampa Bay are swept under the rug, only to be thought of again in the whirlwind of late December tiebreaking scenarios.

So forget the damn point spreads for this week...

Your 2008 Chicago Bears over Philadelphia Eagles
Why do I like the Chicago Bears this week?
(1) I always like the Chicago Bears. (Though their credit is running low)
(2) I think this team is engineered to play their best football when they’re under a barrage of criticism from media and fans. They play well with a chip on their shoulder and they should have eleven chips on Sunday night.
(3) McNabb is hurt. Westbrook probably won’t play (though he says he wants to…though I’ve never heard a player say “I got no interest in playing”). L.J. Smith is banged up. Shawn Andrews still isn’t ready. The Bears are getting this team at the right time. I’m fine with that.
(4) Strange as this might be, the Eagles (especially without Westbrook) don’t do a ton on offense that scares you. They like to throw down the field and that's not how you beat the Lovie Deuce.
(5) The Bears have shown a remarkable ability to contain the run game which means Andy Reid will likely attack the Bears the way everyone used to: screen, screen, screen. Don’t expect the “mug” defense to be sending too many linebackers into the backfield because it’ll leave them susceptible.
(6) The Bears will run the ball far more than the Steelers and their 13 carries did. I certainly do not believe that the Eagles have suddenly cleared up their years-long inability to contain a big running game. Kreutz. Beekman. Garza. Tait. St. Clair. Win this one.
(7) In the last two weeks, the Eagles have scored a total of 12 second half points. The reason? Because since the Super Bowl vomit incident, McNabb has been outed as a player who tires late in games and makes poor decisions because of it. The way to beat Chicago has been to stay in it and score easily as the clock winds down. I'm doubtful of McNabb's ability to do that.

Final note: I want to see the Bears up late in this game. Six points would be preferable. Yeah, I want to see the Bears kick a field goal to go up 20-14 with three and a half minutes remaining. Then I want to see this defense come on the field and end the game. Four plays. No yards. Game over.

Bears 20, Eagles 14.

Comments

#1 Who's Laughing Now said . . .

Don't panic, Bears fans. We played two decent football teams down to the wire. Yes, those were terrible, terrible losses that should have never happened. But guess what? They do happen -- at times, to every team in the NFL. As Jeff says, we are catch the Iggles at the right time. THIS week shows us what the Bears are all about, baby!

September 25, 2008

#2 Denny Green said . . .

THE BEARS ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE!!

Coming into the season we thought the Bears were a team with a game-manage at QB1 who couldn't WIN when they needed to with the passing game.

Check: The Bears are who we thought they were.

We thought the Bears would have a better running game with Benson gone and Forte in, but with the gaps in our o-line, even before the rookie injury, we didn't think we had a running game that could put us on their shoulders and carry us.

Check. The Bears are who we thought they were.

Coming into the season, we were skeptikal of how good the Bears D looked ON PAPER because those memories of fourth-quarter collapses still haunted us. It sure seemed like that it would take more than getting Mike Brown healthy to get the D back to an elite level.

Check. The Bears are who we thought they were.

Coming into the season, we had creeping doubts about Lovie and a full-on, all-out despising of Ron Turner. We'd seen to much of him to think that he could coach his way out of a paper bag.

Check. The Bears are who we thought they were.

The Bears TEASED us in Week 1. We whispered about a return to the Super Bowl. The truth is, we caught Peyton on a really bad day at the beginning of a possibly not-so-great sesaon. At the end of Week 1, we thought: Well, maybe the Bears are something different than we first thought. Maybe Ron Turner doesn't suck, maybe Lovie does really know what he's doing, maybe the O-line really isn't so bad, maybe Mike Brown really does make all the difference ....

But now, as we look back on two weeks that we let slip out of our hands, and we look at a darn good Eagles team, we're one more TYPICAL lame Bears effort from 1-3. And we have to face the music, sooner or later. It's time to face the truth.

THE BEARS ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY ARE.
They fooled us

September 25, 2008

#3 Al In WI said . . .

I couldn't agree more with your point number two. And that really bothers me. Why do they need to get their little feelings hurt to play with effort and play well? That is pathetic. And I'm so sick of this "everyone's against us," bullshit they spew every week.
They are well paid athletes living what for most people in the country is a dream. It shouldn't take critics fairly pointing out their failures to make them want to go out and compete.
So I do agree that they will use this as motivation and play a much more intense game then they did last week. I won't be suprised if they go out and win this game in impressive fashion. Gloat to the media about 'how dare anyone doubt us.' And promptly go out and lose to Detroit the next week.

September 25, 2008

#4 Phil from SATX said . . .

The thing I disagree with everybody about is that the Bears lacked effort in the last loss. I don't think they did at all - I think they were trying their guts out. They were run down by an incredibly effective Brian Griese who, with the help of good, opportunistic coaches, succeeded in exploiting the weakness in our scheme. I know the offense was trying like crazy too - I don't think anyone has commented about the Kyle run where he was helicoptered (that... was... AWESOME!!!) - he is a tough guy and was working as hard as he could. Matt Forte - no question about how hard this kid was trying. Lloyd was catching balls behind his head.

Even the devastating penalty was caused by too much emotion - and as stupid as it looked to us, I would guess that the same scene would have played out on most teams. Maybe not on the best coached teams - Pats or Colts or something - but on most NFL teams, some guy is going to jump in that fray when they see their teammate being abused in that way.

Last year I thought the D wasn't trying - missed tackles and whatnot. Not seeing that this year.

I agree with Who's Laughing Now more than Denny Green - these have been devastating losses, but this is a team with better than average talent. We can right this ship.

I'll make a comment about the firing of Bradley. After reading Haugh's article about it, while I may not agree that Bradley is the bust everyone's making him out to be, I think the central theme of Haugh's article is a good one, and an encouraging one for Bear fans - Jerry and the Bears are demanding accountability, and the era of coddling draftees is OVER - show us what you can do, if you can't show us, you're taking up space, and we'll dump you even while it makes us look bad. As a fan, I am encouraged by that policy, even if I might disagree with this dumping. I wish the team would activate Brandon Rideau - he might have been the best WR in preseason.

This accountability needs to spread through the coaching staff. Maybe the team will sit up and take notice. Harris was talking a bunch of shit about Bradley's firing - watch your back Tommie, the spotlight may swing on you - you haven't been performing up to your contract yet, not close.

I still don't like how players say whatever the hell they want - it gives us fans evidence that Lovie is not a strong coach, and not in control.

Let's have some accountability here, let's win a MUST-WIN game.

MUST WIN. BEAR DOWN.

September 25, 2008

#5 Shady said . . .

Denny I think you're making too many generalizations about what we, the Bears fans, thought about this team before the season and after the 1st game. I can't completely disagree with what you said, but I do disagree with most of it.

Currently I'm watching a pretty good Cubs @ Mets game. Just turned 9-6 Cubs in the 10th. They just showed Bill Murray in the 1st row wearing a Bears cap. Nice. It's a Cinderella story.

Yes, there is no doubt in my mind that this game is BIG. But a loss wouldn't mean the end of the 2008 season by any means. Keep it in perspective Bears fans. Chirs Williams is making appearences in pads at practice again. There is still plenty of time for the offense to come around, let's just hope the defense is healthy and playing well when that happens. Bear down America.

September 25, 2008

#6 animal said . . .

Who's laughing- Im not panicking. We play the lions twice still.

Phil, good comments. I would just repeat many of them at this point. KO, Forte... Im proud of their efforts and the games they've played.

September 25, 2008

#7 Rancid said . . .

Correction Denny Green. The Bears are who YOU thought they were. I'm not that negative to start a season. I see a team a couple of brainfarts away from 3-0. That's somewhere no-one thought we had much of a shot at, even me. So far they've won the toughest game on the schedule and had the upper hand against two solid teams before blowing it late. I don't love it, but I'll take it. And regardless of the lens you view it through, they're a better team than most thought they were.

September 25, 2008

#8 BearDown1982 said . . .

Point #2. Yes. It is one thing that has always bothered me about this group of guys on defense. I get tired to the disrespect, let's play against the media's expectations bull. Just go out there and dominate because that is what you are supposed to do fellas! But, I guess we do have it going for us this week, so I'll take it.

I hope Westbrook is out because that would help us big time.

Here's my one prediction for this game: if Skunk plays, he scores a touchdown.

September 25, 2008

#9 Phil from SATX said . . .

Bears 23 Eagles 21. Game ends with a safety - the best possible way for a Bears game to end.

I'll also take kneeling.

Speaking of that, is a safety not the most fun way to score points? This Bears team has given us a number of memorable safeties over the past few years - to me there's nothing better.

Read the Haugh article today - very good analysis out of him. Central thesis is the Bears need to do what the Bucs did to us - max protect, short drops, quick passes. Corollary is that we need to NOT do what the Steelers opted to do - long drops, trying to set up long passes. He was sacked over and over again.

This should be a pretty easy one to game plan, and so far I like the flexibility shown by the coaches in general - seems much more so than last year, on both sides of the ball. I think RT is so excited to have a great weapon, and a prototypical BEAR weapon, as he has in Matt Forte, that he's just going to the well a little too often. Ease up, share the load with Jones, spread the ball around like you did in your two good scoring drives last week. Keep the pressure and intensity up for 60 minutes, regardless of the score.

One thing we WILL see, at least in one game, this year - the Bears playing with a lead, and then the run game with Forte and Jones taking over in the fourth, wearing teams out. I know RT was actually trying to do that and it didn't happen against the Bucs. But at some point we will see that, and it will be beautiful. Maybe on Sunday night.

September 25, 2008

#10 mikebdot said . . .

Denny Green is unemployed...for a reason.

September 25, 2008

#11 mikebdot said . . .

Incidentally, just finished watching the Jags/Colts game and guess what? Other NFL teams run the ball...over and over and over...

When Kevin Jones is healthy, hopefully Ron Turner figures this out. Garrard (sp?) was a very effective game manager last season and they made the playoffs.

And no, I'm not going to say Forte + Jones = Jones-Drew + Taylor, but still, if you commit to something and can regularly get 20 yard runs, that will really play games with a defenses mind, especially the linebackers on play-action passes. Hopefully our line will just "figure it all out" and make it happen. I still firmly believe Kreutz and Garza are the bane of the Bears existence at this moment. That play where Kreutz literally misses the DE that is directly in front of him is just disgusting. Or when he was out there "blocking" for Forte on a screen, you know, by getting in Forte's way...sad.

September 25, 2008

#12 shonbear said . . .

I posted this on the last thread and Jeff is ding such a great job providing new stuff that I had to re-post. Thoughts?

Jeff,

After seeing the replay of the game I've decided that you are correct, I pleaded with you to re-watch the game several times to assess what happened as I disagreed with your "defenses fault" statement.

Putting aside the 10 point lead, even worse is we had the ball with a 7 point lead, less than 2-3 minutes remaining in the game and the defense had like 2-3 opportunities to kill that too.

So I down with the O killed the first half and the D killed the second half statement.

Now I have thought about this extensively this week and last week with the following conclusion:

It's all mental (I know genious, right?)

In the past we had success, media scrutiny and lack of respect and our team was having fun proving them wrong, they were loose and relaxed and making plays. They were having a blast and enjoying themselves.

Now they are still good, even in that game when they imploded in the 4th quarter and overtime, they were still a gnats ass from like 4-5 mistakes/opportunities on defense only from making that play and winning the game.

Now they are playing tight, they are thinking too much. Maybe this is what's in their head: "Its on the line and I absolutely have to make this play for my team to get us out of this rut and earn us the respect I know we deserve from everybody"

They are pressing themselves, but they just need to free their minds and do their jobs and have fun doing it. They have been playing absolutely incredible overall and we should be 3-0, so how do you fix a team mentally? This is the coaches job for sure, it's the captains jobs, but it really is the coaches responsibility, he needs to pull some Phil Jackson shit out of his ass and get these guys to do something that will alter their psyche and right this ship.

Normally W's will right the ship and loosen their minds up, give them the swagger all that, but I think that the great elation of the Colts payback victory may have put them too high, so when they clearly had the win in their hands for the second of a difficult road trip, they relaxed just a hair (enough to lose) and were unable to create a Win streak like they expected. Possibly that's what got in their heads and then when TB kept themselves within reach of the game and shocked the Bears with that shotgun no huddle shit, (not to mention the clock was down there quite a bit), they saw a flashback of the previous week.

So yea there was coaching errors, player errors, penalties, bad calls, no calls, bad play calling, sometimes poor player usage, etc...

The biggest thing I think has to be the mental errors, mainly on the D's part.

Will we or will we not overcome this issue against the Eagles??? Did we take a step forward witht he offense???

If they were going to release Bradley, why didn't they get rid of him sooner during the final cuts, he didn't look bad in training camp, I thought he was going to contribute. Thought Hamilton had a few good plays against the Bears, he was also burned several times by Brandon Lloyd. Why do we need a practice squad guy, unless their is some other strategy they are planning.

Go Bears!

September 25, 2008

#13 Butt Plug said . . .

To: All of the people that predict a TD by the skunk every game,

You can't say Hester is going to score every game and then when he does expect us to give you props that you were right. Thats like me saying the bears are going to win on every saturday and then when they do ask for ackknowledgement.

September 25, 2008

#14 mikebdot said . . .

http://blogs.suntimes.com/bears/2008/09/snap_to_it_davis_lloyd_rarely.html

Ron Turner is fucking retarded.

There is no reason Rashied Davis should have more snaps than Booker. He is a slot receiver, at best. Booker picked up Hester's lost snaps apparently. It should be the other way around (i.e. Davis and Hester should be splitting time at the 3, with Hester getting more).

Our receiving corp isn't great or anything, but when Ron Turner is the person controlling the pieces, you might as well suit up the disney dog du jour.

September 25, 2008

#15 mikebdot said . . .

Giving props to Jeff for picking the Bears to win is like giving props to a butt plug for being nice and pushing in *insert name here*'s stool.

That's the joke you fool. Jeff is like a Superfan, except better because I don't have to hear awful sounding Chicago accents.

September 25, 2008

#16 jeff said . . .

you see the thing about my picks is that if you read them...you can usually tell if i ACTUALLY believe the team is going to win or not. i usually couch the ways in which we'd be defeated as some sort of defensive mandate.

September 25, 2008

#17 Shady said . . .

If the Eagles are going to bring the heat on Orton, the Bears need to spread out the offense and take advantage of the Eagles agressiveness in a couple of ways.

Number one, I'd like to see the short slant by Lloyd or maybe a TE out on the corners on 1st or 2nd down. Opposing teams always pull that shit on the Bears and it's time the Bears turn the tables on their opponents. Those 4-7 yds routes are going to be critical to 3rd down conversion success. They don't necessarily have to run the play on 3rd down, but those slants could set up the Bears for manageable 3rd and shorts, an area where they've actually had pretty good success.

Secondly, the Bears need to take advantage of the over pursuit of the Eagles defense. Whether is be a screen or a mis-direction play, or hell maybe even something halfway creative, Ron needs to figure out a way to get his play makers the ball in space. The Bears should use this opportunity in front of America to have fun with the play calling and get his players excited. Probably, not going to happen though. Many of us on here have been preaching creativity on offense to Ron Turner for a long, long, long time.

Finally, we need to see if GO or Des Clark can make up for their mistakes early this season, but they need the opportunity to do so. I want to see the Bears utilizing the TEA time game plan again. Turner hasn't done a terrible job this year, I think he's slowly getting better, but he is going to have to make big strides this week in order to put up enough pts. to beat the Eagles.

Health issues on both teams are also going to be key. Keep an eye on Hester and Westbrook this week.

September 25, 2008

#18 Joseph said . . .

This team needs a verbal thrashing! If Lovie won't do it then bring in Sgt. Hartman from Full Metal Jacket or some shit!

Whats your name fat body? Tommie Harris Sir! Where are you from? Texas sir! Only Steers and Qeers come from Texas! How tall are you? 6-3 sir! I didn't know they stacked shit that high!

September 25, 2008

#19 Viva said . . .

"Looks like the best part of you ran down the crack of your momma's ass and ended up as a brown stain on the mattress. I think you've been cheated."

September 25, 2008

#20 marc said . . .

WE will win our division! The Packers,Vikings, and Lions cant win against us... these three first games made us tougher as a team and we are an elite team...we will win our division and we will win NFC CHAMPS! GO BEARS!

September 25, 2008

#21 zmac said . . .

#2: If the Bears are who we thought they were, how did they fool us.

That whole thing made no sense.

September 25, 2008

#22 Z said . . .

USC just got finished off by 1-2 Oregon St. I love when teams that are supposed to run the table and cakewalk to a national championship are upset by unranked teams with a losing record in week 3. Sweet.

Come on Bears if Oregon State can do it so can we.

September 26, 2008

#23 Shady said . . .

Joey LaRoque must be one happy guy this morning.

Speaking of this morning, I woke up only to hear Kyle Orton on Mike and Mike (show sucks by the way) discussing how he threw 74 times in a game once at Purdue. The best part of waking up, is Kyle Orton in your cup.

Bear Down America.

September 26, 2008

#24 Well it's Friday.... said . . .

and that means that last week's game is a distant memory. And thats evident by all the idiots saying KO is good QB and that he can win games for us. This happens on Thursday and Friday every week here. When will Lovie wise up and put Rex back in? Hurry up already before you piss the entire season away. Fuck!

September 26, 2008

#25 Urlacher FTW said . . .

Butt... the Bears don't play on Saturday... unless they make the playoffs; GG.

Jeff, I agree with you and I always pick the Bears, and even if I thought they had no chance of winning I would just not pick their game instead of picking against them. And while I agree that staying at least 500 or above is a way better way to situate yourself for a late season playoff run; the simple fact is they could lose the next 3 games straight and still be alive; they'd probably have to win out and go 11-5, but still any talk of playoff hopes for any team right now is stupid. Where are the 3 best teams from the AFC last year, Indy is at 1-2, Chargers are 1-2, and NE is 2-1 but just got a major thumping from MIAMI! I mean I would rather be us with 2 close losses than to get blown out by the fins! Outside of Dallas; noone really knows what the playoffs will look like.

I am kind of sick of the talk about how we are getting people at the right time, football is a man's game, individual toughness and depth of roster are factors of a good team.
Look at the Bears, people may say we don't have an elite QB, RB, or WRs but look at depth there.. If Orton goes out, our backup knows the system has played an entire season and played in the Superbowl; if Forte (GOD FORBID) gets hurt, we have a first round pick with proven numbers to put in; if Lloyd goes out .. oh ya, Bradley's gone; well, anyway even along the O-line and defensively we seem to be the deepest team in the NFL. Maybe putting all of your eggs in one basket isn't the way to go, noone in the media seemed to care why the Bear's were losing last season with 6 STARTERS on D out a couple games and 3 gone for the season but we beat the colsts and everyone says, oh Manning has a sore knee, that's why; WTF?

September 26, 2008

#26 RandomName said . . .

Ok, bears, still early in the season. i'm deflated a bit which may be a good thing. bears are still contenders i really hope they can pull this one off

September 26, 2008

#27 Al In WI said . . .

David Haugh pointed out that the Bears where 26-1 when leading in the 4th quarter under Ron Rivera. Under Babich they are 1-6. And pretty damning stat.
As for a prediction, I hope the opposite happens but here goes; Eagles 24 Bears 9.

September 26, 2008

#28 Bill said . . .

Al - I read that fact about 4Q under Babich vs Rivera and got angry. How can that not be enough to put him on watch? And Lovie too.

September 26, 2008

#29 Lovie should be fired.... said . . .

for the way he conducts himself. Without yelling or getting in the face of the team once in a while they get complacent and that has been evident by the 4th quarter performances. As if fucking up and conducting a fake QB competition and letting that secret get out werent enough, now we learn he cant even keep his coordinators in check...let alone his players.

September 26, 2008

#30 RandomName said . . .

Lovie should be fired? they slaughtered the colts, THIS year, they stayed in all three games till the 4th quarter. this is still a good position.

Converting on short yardage should be fixed.

The yelling and screaming inst actually necessary depending on your coaching style, this coach did have a continually growing win-loses ratio since he''s coached the bears until 07. And they made it to the superbowl.

but talk to me after game 8, I may listen then.

September 26, 2008

#31 Ronaldo said . . .

You can't fire Lovie just because he doesn't show emotion. That's a juvenile, illogical reason to fire someone. By that same logic neither Belli-cheat or Dungy show much emotion and all they've done is win the last 2 of 3 Super Bowls. I'd much rather have my coach be like them than like Coughlin.

All I want in my coach is someone who knows how to adjust the gameplan as the game dictates. That's why I think Lovie and staff need to go. Repeatedly, they've shown disregard for wanting to adjust gameplans; never more so evident than last week's 4th quarter. It's just stubborness at this point.

September 26, 2008

#32 Al In WI said . . .

Bill, I agree. I also heard a quote I liked this week from Hub Arkush who said that Babich's only qualification to be the d-coordinator is that he's Lovie's best friend.
I've been on the kick for a while but ever since Smith got his big contract extension and took a more hands on approach to things, this franchise has headed south. He fired Rivera, Wade Wilson, and several other defensive coaches. And when he was questioned by the media, he replied "trust me." Since that point we're 8-11 and have lost some mind blowing games.
This week for the first time in a long time he's finally starting to get some heat. It has been reported in the Tampa papers that to the Bucs it was obvious that the Bears got tired out at the end of the game. How does that happen when the Bears actually won the time of possesion battle? Could it be Lovie's club med training camp style?

September 26, 2008

#33 Mr.Biggz said . . .

Bring out the Body Bags boys...this game come sunday is going to be brutal. Say good bye to KO, this will be his last game. Amen. Ko=TKO'D! simple as that. Lets pray that Matt Forte doesn't become another CAdalallac Willaims, we are over using him toooo tooooo much. The RB position needs to be shared a lot more with Kevin Jones or else Forte isn't going to last toooo long. Come this Sunday we will fight till last man standing.......
Gooo Bears..........

September 27, 2008

#34 BearDown1982 said . . .

Tommie Harris. Anyone else as worried about him as I am? He has showed zero burst this season and looks like a shell of himself. I can't even remember the last time he was actually healthy. I'm concerned that this might be a guy whose body just won't cooperate for him. And what a shame...our defense is very, very good when Tommie is on his game.

I'm also hearing that Bulger does not want to play for Linehan. Although, may not matter because I'm sure he will be fired by the end of the season...but that is a QB I wouldn't mind seeing n the navy and orange.

September 27, 2008

#35 shonbear said . . .

Ron Turner would fuck away a talented Marc Bulger.

Did anybody hear Zach Zademan's Tommie Harris interview. Holy cow! What the heck is going on with Lovie, Tommie and the team for that matter. This Eagles game has the potential to be a major launhing point of success or possibly a team implosion, let's hope for the prior.

Hub's statement (or was that a blogger) about the Bears being 1-6 under the defense of Bob vs 48-1 when having a lead in the fourth quarter under Ron Rivera is pretty alarming.

Liked what Alex Brown said about the D looking and playing great. I agree, both games even with the D's short term failure, they are oly a play or call away from the win. I think he should emphasize that part of it more though.

Let's ring the philly liberty bell!

September 27, 2008

#36 joseph said . . .

I would play Marcus Harrison until Tommie is completly healthy! He is a liability when he is not 100%! Let Marcus out play Tommie Harris and we will see how fast Tommie gets his fat ass back into shape!

The guy too me is a big cry baby! Go out there and earn your contract or we will trade you to the Rams!

September 27, 2008

#37 Al In WI said . . .

The quarterback market for 2009 looks very promising. Derek Anderson, Bulger, and mabey even Carson Palmer if things continue to go south in Cinci. It'll take a trade, but what the hell we don't do anything with our 1st rounders anyways.
I think Babich will get canned if this crap continues. Last season he had injuries for an excuse this year he has top 5 talent. I'd look for Marinelli to be his replacement. Not saying that's what should happen, but I wouldn't be surprised.

September 27, 2008

#38 zisk said . . .

as long as we are blaming people i want to throw rusty jones' name out there. we used to be a well conditioned team but someone isnt making sure they're staying in shape. the strength and conditioning coordinator is as good a person to blame as anyone

September 27, 2008

#39 animal said . . .

Fire Lovie and offer Bill Cower 1.6 billion to come to Chi town. Fuck it. I'd like to see a coach with fire, one who can win a super bowl. I have never bought into the fire Lovie shit until someone posted that Rivera/Babich stat. Now I'm more pissed about that decision than ever.

September 27, 2008

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