For those of you new here, I began picking against the spread on this site two years ago and was about thirty games over. Since then...not so much. So I'm changing the format. Starting with week one, I'll pick the Bears game and three others each week. You do the same.
(1) Pick the Bears against the spread and THREE other games in the "Comments" section. To protect your selections, you can also email them to jeff@dabearsblog.com.
(2) Get all four correct in any of the seventeen weeks and you make the postseason fantasy tournament (the only fantasy I do).
(3) Win that and you'll be invited to join me every Friday for the duration of the 2009 season. I'm looking for a nice point/counter point Friday column.
CHICAGO BEARS +9.5 OVER Indianapolis
Why do I like the Chicago Bears this week?
1. I always like the Chicago Bears.
2. I actually believe the Bears are going to win Sunday night. A banged up interior of the Colts offensive line and a quarterback who'll undoubtedly be wary of lateral motion will give way to a barrage of Tommie and stunt blitzes.
3. Because according to Brad Biggs: Wide receiver Rashied Davis on whether he has watched Super Bowl XLI: 'I have it on my TiVo at home. I still have it. I don't watch it much, but I still have it.' Let's not forget that contrary to the David "I'm the new Mariotti" Haugh, a great many of the players on this roster felt that defeat in Miami nineteen months ago. This is a Bears defense that hasn't been healthy since and has spent the last two weeks being shit on by the local press for underperforming in fake games. They'll be inspired Sunday night.
4. Kyle Orton: 17-28, 209 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
5. Matt Forte: 24 carries, 144 yards, 2 TDs
6. Bears 27, Colts 23
...and the other three...
NEW YORK GIANTS -4 over Washington
I spoke about the Giants yesterday so I'll leave that be. Otherwise I just can't get excited about the Washington Redskins. The emotion and energy of a Giants fanbase celebrating their first title in 18 years should catalyze Eli Manning into what I believe is going to be a Pro Bowl season.
Cincinnati -1 over BALTIMORE
Joe Flacco's last start in a football game was losing in the I-AA championship game. He's going to lose again Sunday and look badly doing it. When an organization is considering starting Troy Smith over you in a professional football game, you're not ready.
New York Jets -3 over MIAMI
This is a hope pick. I'm rooting like hell for Brett Favre to be the best quarterback in football this season because I know in the homes of Allouez and DePere and Madison, it'll make their hearts sick.
#2 Max said . . .FIRST HAHA!
September 4, 2008
#3 Idonije said . . .And Jeff, I used to root for 2 teams every week, the bears and whoever was facing the packers. . . This season, im cheering for 3 teams, The bears, whoever is facing the packers and now, whoever is facing the jets. I realize Brett doing well would make the green and yellow faithful go nuts, but i just cant root for him. Im sorry, i never will be able to.
I hope Brett gets sacked 4 times and throws at least 2 interceptions. Whether they win or lose, it doesnt matter to me. I just want him to get hit. . . alot
September 4, 2008
#4 BearsTransplant said . . .I will take the Bears to beat the spread against the Colts in a low scoring affair, where Forte and Maynard control the clock and win the possession game. I will also take the Texans plus 6 and a half against the Steelers, the Eagles giving 7 and a half, and last but not least the Cardinals giving 2 and a half against the Niners.
September 4, 2008
#5 animal said . . .I think the Bears actually pull this one off...with a little help from #23. I don't think he'll score, but the Colts will botch one kick-off/punt trying to keep it away from him, and he will return one for at least 50 yards. Add in a blocked punt, a big sack on Manning, an efficient offense that only goes 3-and-out once or twice in the 1st half, and a couple of well-timed blitzes up the middle, and I think you've got a 23-20 game. That's probably a beatable spread even if they dont win, though I quit gambling. The main thing I want to see is the defense not get washed to the side and burned on the cut-back run. That shit drives me crazy. Stay in your gaps!
BEARSSSSS!
September 4, 2008
#6 Phillip from NYC said . . .VERY interesting dilemma presented here!
Do we
a. root for Favre, to spite the hated Packers and their fans
or
b. root against the Favre we have always despised?I want to say A, but I don't think my learned hatred will let me.
September 4, 2008
#7 Phillip from NYC said . . .So, I'm not ashamed of admitting when I don't know something - that's how you learn, after all.
Can someone explain to me what this "spread" is and where I find it?
September 4, 2008
#8 Dan said . . .Also of note, Da Site is undergoing a redesign! Exciting!
Here's to hoping they don't use so much fucking Flash.
September 4, 2008
#9 jeff said . . .Anyone have any good bears bars in New York City? I spent all of last season trying to find a place to get some sound, with no luck. Any help would be most appreciated.
September 4, 2008
#10 jeff said . . .dan, new here? welcome.
josie woods.
waverly place, btw greene and mercerofficial nyc bar of dablog....i'll be there all day
September 4, 2008
#11 Bill said . . .great brad biggs piece on hester and his jersey number
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/football/bears/1145256,hester090408.article
September 4, 2008
#12 jdawg said . . .Phillip -
"Spread" is the point spread. Many people incorrectly think it's the oddmakers opinion of what the point difference in the game will be. That is, that the Colts will beat the Bears by about 9 points.Actually, it's the number that splits the betting public down the middle. So an equal amount of money is bet on the Colts and Bears. If the Colts win by 10 or more, the Colt bettors win. If the Bears lose by 9 or less (or win outright) the Bears bettors win.
The people taking the bets really make their money on the "vigorish" (sp?) or the small amount of each bet that is maintained and not paid out.
The most famous example of all this is the Colts Jets SB III. The spread was about 17 - but it's not that the bet takers thought the Colts woudl win by that much - it took a spread that high to get people betting on the Jets.
September 4, 2008
#13 Rancid said . . .I have a sinus infection so right now I'm having trouble seeing the Bears score a TD on offense. Given our special teams I expect some FGs, but no TDs. Maybe a TD on special teams but I doubt it.
I think our O will need to score at least 2 TDs to beat the Colts. Unfortunately I don't see that happening.
I'm about to flush my sinuses with saltwater, so maybe I'll be able to convince myself of a Bears W in about 5 minutes.
September 4, 2008
#14 Taylor said . . .On the surface, rooting for or against Favre appears to be a bit of quandry. But the solution is simple:
1. Regardless, the pack must suck. hard.
2. Rodgers must be injured at some point, preferably before showing even an ounce of competence, and it might as well result from an Urlacher sack, just for good measure.
3. Favre plays well, good enough to get the Jets into the playoffs. Then his gunslinger ways reappear and he single-handedly throws away an important game.
This way, the pack sucks, they look like idiots for giving up Favre, and Favre adds yet another piece of evidence to the case was he was more durable than great. Everyone wins! well, everyone except Favre, the pack, and the Jets. I'm good with that.
September 4, 2008
#15 trueblue said . . .I read on a fantasy site that Dungy said, they plan on kicking to Hester. Anyone else heard/read this?
September 4, 2008
#16 Jimbo said . . .Colts beat Bears, Patriots over Chiefs, Vikings over Packers, Steelers over Texans.
September 4, 2008
#17 nutjob said . . .See the sun times: Dungy says they are not going to kick out of bounds to give the bears a short field. Insead they are going to kick "high" and "away" from hester so he'll have to "move" to get punts/kickoff's.
Wow. I figure they will do that until he brings one to the house... then we will be seeing squibbs and kicks out of bounds.
Either that, or they will squibb every kick like the superbowl. pussies.
I think, if they kick to him, he scores 1 TD. They were last in the league in 2007 for punt/kickoff yards allowed. yikes.
Also, the bears will add 1 rushing touchdown and 3 field goals. The D forces 2 turn overs... we commit none. Addai rushes for
The bears win 23-17.
September 4, 2008
#18 Joist said . . .Check out prediction number 3 of the sports guy. I love it!!go bears
http://m.espn.go.com/wireless/story?storyId=3568647
September 4, 2008
#19 Tyger said . . .Bears (+9.5) over Colts (I'm a hopeless optimist before the season starts - after about Week 3 I'll start writing sarcastic picks like "My slow pitch softball team (-15) over Bears")
Jags (-3) over Titans (I really like the Jaguars, for some reason, and I think Vince Young sucks)
Texans (+6.5) over Steelers (I can't explain my hatred for the Steelers, but I will pick against them at every opportunity)
Saints (-3) over Bucs (It's an even-numbered year, which means Tampa will suck)September 4, 2008
#20 Jimbo said . . .I'll take:
Indy (-9.5) over the Bears.
NY Jets (-3) over the Dolphins (who might be the worst team in the league)
Green Bay (-2.5) over Minnesota. (Aaron Rodgers will surprise Bears fans.)
NY Giants (-4.5) over the Redskins.
September 4, 2008
#21 Too much experience said . . .Not one single sports writer on the internet has given the bears a chance at being better than 8-8 (most say 7-9 or 6-10). They say the o-line sucks, orton is bad, forte is unknown, and Hester is no #1. They say the D is lazy. They say lovie smith is a soft players coach.
I hate that shit. I can't wait until we come out and beat indy. Man its gonna be great. I hope its not even close. I am praying for a repeat of week 3 in 2006 when we were gonna get "crushed" by big bad shaun alexander and the seagirls. they scored, what, 3 points.
New prediction: Bears 28, colts 10. Peyton's rookie center lets DD sneak in and fucking slam gatoraid boy's knee into the ground. Game over, he sits out the rest of the game. comes back in week 2 all hobbled.
Wanna talk about O-line?? The colts are starting a rookie in place of a pro-bowl center. They are also missing a starting guard. This is screaming field day for tommie and DD. I say we get 5 sacks. 4 in the first half and 1 after they pull Peyton.
I hope the D is as pissed off as i am about all the shit being slang all over the popular media about them.
I wish i could go to bed now and wake up sunday afternoon.
September 5, 2008
#22 Rancid said . . .Drugs and alcohol Jimbo, drugs and alcohol - that'll make that wish come true.
September 5, 2008
#23 Joist said . . .They actually give the Bears a positive word or two at the halftime show. I was surprised.
September 5, 2008
#24 NY Bears Fan said . . .Crap.
Just read Simmons' picks column and realized that he made the same picks I did. I don't know whether to change all of them or not.
Ahh, screw it.
September 5, 2008
#25 Phillip from NYC said . . .I actually had to rewind the DVR when Chris Collingsworth said something positive at halftime. I haven't heard a single positive thing come out of the media. I guess we will have to see in three nights.
September 5, 2008
#26 Joist said . . .Bill,
Thanks! One more follow-up if you don't mind - what's the significance of the positive and negative? I.e., Bears +9.5 over Colts, Giants -7 Under Redskins?
September 5, 2008
#27 mikebdot said . . .Phillip, I can field that one. When you bet "against the spread", you're not merely deciding who will win the game. You're picking who will have more points when you add the spread to the underdog's score (or, put another way, subtract the spread from the favorite's score). So, if you pick the Bears +9.5 over the Colts, you're saying that the Bears' final score + 9.5 points will be higher than the Colts final score. In other words, if the Colts win by 9 or fewer points (or if the Bears win by any margin), then you win your bet. Conversely, if you picked, for example, the Giants -4.5, then in order for you to win your bet they would have to win by five or more points (which they did, so you'd have won if you picked them).
September 5, 2008
#28 mikebdot said . . .You didn't give us much time to get our picks in! Oh well. Been busy. Switching jobs. Start new one Monday! Hooray for 12.5% pay raises by the simple task of writing up your resume and selling that engineering knowledge.
September 5, 2008
#29 AfroCelt said . . .Oh, I never learned to read...there is still time. Yee haw!
September 5, 2008
#30 Kyle said . . .Big changes seem afoot everywhere then. Put in an offer on our first house yesterday! It isn't even a starter house....thank you crappy real estate market!
I have no problem rooting for Favre since he's not wearing green and gold...y'know, devil colors.
September 5, 2008
#31 Kyle said . . .Against the Spread:
-Da Bears deliver the KO +9.5 over Indy
-Cinci -1.5 over Baltimore
-Cowboys -6 over Browns
-49'ers +2.5 over Arizona
September 5, 2008
#32 Bill said . . .On Favre. I hate the Packers, and I hated Favre while he was on the Packers, but it's almost like Chicago got cheated out of the opportunity of watching Brett Favre play. I know it was annoying as hell for us, but the guy is fun to watch. I'm not going to root for him, but I'll enjoy watching him play if the Jets happen to be on TV. The fact that it'll make Packers fans squirm with every TD pass is just icing on the cake.
September 5, 2008
#33 said . . ."Institutional Smugness".....classic.
September 5, 2008
#34 jeremy34 said . . .September 5, 2008
#35 Urlacher FTW said . . .Bears +9.5 over Colts
Arizona -2.5 over San Fran
Dallas -5.5 over Cleveland
Detroit -3 over Atlanta
September 5, 2008
#36 Pissed Off said . . .I will take:
Bears to beat the Colts
Minnesota to trounce Green Bay
Jets over the Dolphins
Browns to shock the CowboysI suppose the "experts" are in the same boat as the rest of us. Noone really knows anything until Sunday... well we know a little about the Giants and Redskins. I am not nearly as concerned about the Bears O-line or D as a lot of people seem to be.
For known starters the Preseason is absolutely meaningless, it is a time to evaluate players and avoid injury ; not evaluate teams. To think you can glean some accurate evaluation of a defense or offense from watching a team's starters play without motivation, without an actual scheme, without some starters, and without definitive direction on preparing for a specific team; is assinine.
For people to claim Forte is unproven.. well duh, so was AP last season and what did he do for Minnesota; single-handedly catapult them to a team that could run the football.
GO BEARS!September 5, 2008
#37 Pissed Off said . . .I'm not liking this first matchup of the year. Call me a traitor, but I think we're in for a good ol' fashioned butt-whoopin.
September 5, 2008
#38 Phillip from NYC said . . .That was not me in #36, dont know why someone would steal my screen name and post that...I cant completely disagree but it wasnt me.
September 5, 2008
#39 Idonije said . . .Thanks for the info guys, and while I'm still a little confused, I think I understand. Here goes:
Da Bears beat da ponies +9.5
J E T S BRETT BRETT BRETT beats Big Tuna, -7
Seattle over Buffalo, +3 (why not?)
NoLA over the Bucs, -3
September 5, 2008
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/football/bal-sp.ravensnotes05sep05,0,2785120.story
willie anderson to sign with the Ravens.
September 5, 2008
Here at DaBearsBlog, you are free to kill us or the Bears as you so wish. You are not free, however, to be an asshole. So if you spew racism or ill-meaning foul language (cursing about football is just fine) or anything of that ilk, your comments ain't gonna last long, jerk.
