A question occurred to me after a very interesting day for our humble blog (more on that coming soon). Besides Mr. Haugh's assertion of Bernard Berrian's game-altering genius, what have the Minnesota Vikings done that the Chicago Bears haven't in 2008? Why does this uphill climb feel so steep? I came to a stark realization.
Nothing. They've done nothing.
FACT ONE
The Bears and Vikings play identical schedules with the exception of two games. They each won their game against the worst division in the sport (NFC West) and the Bears won theirs against the best division in the sport (Eagles, NFC East). The Vikings play the Giants in Week 17.
FACT TWO
In the remaining schedule, we both lost to each other, Tampa, Tennessee and Green Bay. Minnesota lost to Indianapolis and beat Carolina. The Bears...the opposite. Hence, your conference record tiebreaker.
FACT THREE
The Bears have one more loss than the Vikings and that was to the Atlanta Falcons, or Minnesota's Week 16 opponent.
You: Jeff?
jeff: yes?
You: What does all this mean?
jeff: i'll tell you.
It means that as down as you might be about the Cardinals playing dead on Sunday at home, the Minnesota Vikings still have to earn this division title. This team hasn't been better all season, by any means. They simply lost the right game at the right time. Their two remaining contests are - by current records - the 2nd and 6th hardest games on their schedule all season. The Viking record against 1,3,4 and 5? 1-3. If they win these last two, fine. Tip your cap and hope the six seed comes into the Metrodome and kicks their ass.
If they don't, just hope the Bears are there to capitalize.
#2 Jon said . . .Interesting website with up to date statistics on playoff probability. According to this, the bears have less than a 9% chance of making the playoffs.
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfcstandings.html
December 17, 2008
#3 The Ghost of Halas said . . .Jeff, you make some great points on the comparison of the two teams. Interesting perspective. But your facts in "Fact One" aren't quite right. In terms of conference winning percentage, the NFL South is the best division in football, against which the Bears went 1-3 and the Vikings 2-1 to date.
December 17, 2008
#4 Z said . . .I'm a considerable youngster to this blog, but this is one of the best ones our fearless leader has ever created. Just when I was feeling low and the woesome despotism of Chicago sports media had overwhelmed the mirth I felt after the victory over New Orleans, you craft a thing of such logical beauty.
Good job.
December 17, 2008
#5 Nick said . . .Jeff you may be the only Bears fan up as late as me almost every night. Animal seems tobe up late a lot too but he is in Alaska. We are East Coast and there is obviously something wrong with us (or at least with me).
After the draft how many really thought we could go 10-6 and have a shot at the playoffs and the Division with two weeks to go? We are playing the Pack in a meaningful football game (besides the meaning of wanting to destroy our hated rivals) the second to last game of the season. I know we easily could have and argueably should have more than that going for us but that is still pretty good considering all the question marks we had going into the season.
Am I dissapointed in some of the give away losses? Hell yes. But we still have a chance to make the playoffs which is the first goal of any season. And until that goal has been destroyed before us we can never give up. It is not yet destroyed. Who thought going into the playoffs last year that the Giants would win it all? Over the Patriots no less. We all know that once there, any team can win. Any Given Sunday. Or Saturday. Or Monday or Thursday. You get the point. Making it into the playoffs = a chance to advance in the playoffs.
The 6th seed wildcard team that makes it to the playoffs has to do the same thing a 15-1 or 16-0 team has to do (plus win one extra game) . They all have to win the next game until there are no more games to play. That is all. Just win. Yes we need help to make the playoffs. But if we do make it then all we have to do is keep winning one game at a time until there are no more opponents left to play. And we won't need any outside help for that.
Bear Down
December 17, 2008
#6 mikebdot said . . .Excellent point Jeff. Let's all keep in mind the Vikings lost Pat Williams for 2-6 weeks, and Jared "Hillbilly" Allen is playing at about 50% with a bum knee. The Viking play Atlanta this week with Michael Turner. Without Williams and Allen -at his best- I think the Falcons will be able to run the ball well. Not to mention pass. Minnesota's secondary is kind of make-shift. Yes they stopped Kurt Warner and the air attack of Arizona, I have a hard time believing that defense can do it two weeks in a row.
December 17, 2008
#7 BearDown1982 said . . .Yea, facts! Hooray. I love those.
Great post Jeff.
Jon: "best" is subjective, so the fact is mixed with an opinion...a forgivable sin, surely. I don't buy Carolina, Tampa, or Atlanta being the best division in football regardless of the statistical anomaly that is their collective record against the NFC. Plus, Carolina still has to prove themselves against the Giants (the only team they play against the NFC east) as they played crappy teams all year and got super lucky against mediocre ones. Atlanta lost to Philadelphia. NO lost to Washington. TB lost to Dallas. So, screw conference record, how about head to head? The south is 0-3 against the east. There you go, fact.
Oh, I just realized, the south played against a falling division in the AFC...Oakland and Kansas City continue to be a joke and SD and Denver continue to take full advantage, this year only to be considered "poor" football teams, rather than terrible ones. Shoot, and Denver just split their games against both. That's just sad. They're lucky they picked up Royal and he is a stud at WR. As it turns out, good things can happen if you play your talented 2nd round WR.
December 17, 2008
#8 mikebdot said . . .It certainly helps our cause that Minny has to play the #1 and #2 rushing offenses without the entire Williams Wall. Gives me a bit of hope. Anyone know if Jackson is expected to be the starter the next two weeks or is Gus expected to come back?
December 17, 2008
#9 Johnq said . . .Well, maybe Denver is "mediocre".
December 17, 2008
#10 Phil from SATX said . . .Best post in a while.
December 17, 2008
#11 thegreenmenace said . . .Great points Jeff. Can we also get one thing off the table? (I know we can't but here g0es).
Kyle Orton needs to be locked up at QB. I want him for the now and the future. He will only get better, he has great intangibles and leadership, he has demonstrated the ability to bring our team from behind, and he looks to be durable, this year's ankle sprain notwithstanding.
In the Pro Bowl talk I heard about them comparing QBs and wanting to boost the ones who have less to work with. Is there any QB that had less to work with than Kyle this year? He did have two better than average tight ends and a great receiving RB, but after that? I don't know how he ranks but 15 TDs and 10 INTs doesn't suck, especially since he played in at least 3 games where his ankle was bothering him. How many passes without an INT?
Someone on TV made a comment about how it wouldn't be worth paying a top flight passing QB in Chicago given the bad weather for half the season. Interesting point, not sure I agree, but look what Drew Brees, The Anointed One, has done over here 3 seasons in a row? All his passing heroics go for naught.
Pay the guy some medium money, lock him up, then go get him a Pro Bowl Oline - wouldn't you love that? Wouldn't you like to have what the Cowboys have - a Pro Bowl center and right guard? Wouldn't Matt Forte blast into the stratosphere with that?
GET ON IT JERRY! But first sign Kyle.
December 17, 2008
#12 CA BEAR FAN said . . .every now and then I find myself in a predicament in which i leave myself to the mercy of the universe. you know, like submitting my stats final at 3am on Monday instead of "by the end of the day Sunday," or not calling sick into work and just hoping no one notices I didn't show to that department wide meeting about communication.
The thing is, during these moments of prayer, I often think about how next time I will not let this happen, next time I will make the right choices, I will be alert, conscious, involved, I'll be watching week by week, day by day making the appropriate adjustments, making the right moves, doing all that is required...
When do we get to assess the moves that were made?
the Draft.. moving the greatest returner to WR... losing the best special teams player in the league... dide we sign Rashied Davis to a 3-Year deal?damn it would be nice to make the playoffs, but it would be nicer to hold coaches and management accountable for some of the decisions they've made this year...
December 17, 2008
#13 thegreenmenace said . . .JEFF! u have given some kinda of hope...I had dream last night. I was talking to Urlacher and Briggs and they told me " Dont worry we will win the NFC NORTH" so idk maybe this was a sign from god! telling me to Chill THE Fuck OUT and BEAR THE FUCK DOWN!
December 17, 2008
#14 thegreenmenace said . . .Soldier Field's rankings:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/specials/fansurvey/2008/index.html?bcnn=yes
details:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/specials/fansurvey/2008/affordability.html#bearsDecember 17, 2008
#15 NittyGritty34 said . . .Who the hell is Marcus Hamilton and why was he the second highest paid Bear this season?
http://content.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/salaries/teamdetail.aspx?year=2008&team=5&order=Salary+descDecember 17, 2008
#16 JP said . . .Phil: as for how qb's do in these kinds of environments, see Brett Favre. Granted, it's not as windy in GB, but there has only been one home game so far that was really windy this year in Chicago, so so what. Point is, I think Chicago could have success with a frachise qb. But it'll never happen. We reserve our big spending for D and RB, that's it. That's Chicago football, and that's the way I like it. Yes, I would love to have a "great" qb, but I'm not holding my breath. We're either cursed, or every coach/gm we have can't evaluate/develop qb's. So I'll take my chances with Kyle. If we get one more playmaker on offense, and our defense reverts to form next year (can it still?), we'll be just fine. Until then, let's win this year.
Bear Down
December 17, 2008
#17 Bill From SATX said . . .Because I live in Minnesota and see most of the games I can tell you exactly what the Vikings have done that the Bears have not done. When I watch the 2008 Vikings I am reminded of the 2006 Bears. It boils down to PASS RUSH. Another former Bear, Leslie Frazier, is doing an amazing job at Defensive Cor. We are stuck with Babich. Now having said that, I believe the Vikings also have ALOT more talent on Defense then the Bears. The Williams Boyz and Jared Allen are probably the most aggresive D Line in the league. That coupled with some unknown but great line-backers I would have to say that it's my belief that the Vikings will not only win the division, they may in fact go very far in the playoffs. Defenses win Superbowls. And they sure are important this late in the season.
The Bears need to get rid of Babich...but it won't happen.
December 17, 2008
#18 Urlcher FTW said . . .I agree with JP in that the Bears need to get rid of the DC. The D has never been what it was 2 years ago, and is it a coincidence that was when Rivera left? They can say all they want that it is Lovie's scheme, but I see different. As for the O, I agree with Phil that they need to keep and let Kyle develop. He is not flashy, but he is smart and consistent, another problem we have had in the recent past. The Bears can be great and from what I read, we all know that. The organization needs to get off their butts and get us, the die hard fans, the team Chicago deserves. Being stationed in Texas, I have the Sunday Ticket just to watch the Bears. I want to be able to root for the team they are supposed to be and ram it down these Cowboys Fans' throats.
December 17, 2008
#19 big rob said . . .JP, your assessment is a bit off imo. Yes the Vikes have 16 more sacks than the Bears, but the Bears have 14 more INTs, in over pass defense they are close and both in the bottom third of the league, mostly a wash. The lack of turnovers that the Vikes have keep them them far... far away from the monsters that the Bears were in 06.
December 17, 2008
#20 mikebdot said . . .Green Menace-
Marcus Hamilton is a rookie CB was picked up off the Tampa practice squad. We released Mark Bradley to open a roster spot for him. I have to believe that the salary bonus has to be a typo. Probably supposed to be $100,000 or a mil at the most.
December 17, 2008
#21 mikebdot said . . .Big rob: Because there is one of those weird clauses in the contract that he'll never earn but work towards the salary cap number for whatever reason. The cap number has nothing whatsoever to do with the actual payroll. Creative accounting ought to be a major.
December 17, 2008
#22 JP said . . .That last note should have been to thegreenmenace...not big rob. In any event, I remember reading something about how it's just a number on paper, never to be flaunted with fancy cars and all that jazz.
December 17, 2008
#23 Z said . . .#18
You have to look at the overall defense not one specific area. I did reference pass rush, which I think is huge. I don't think there is a better D Line in football than what the Vikings have.
Also...The Vikings D is ranked 12th, the Bears 23rd. That needs to change in my opinion.
December 17, 2008
#24 Nick said . . .I know all Da Bears can control is their final two games but I need to create in my head as many situations as possible for Da Bears to make the playoffs so here goes.
All statements are based on Da Bears having to successfully win their last two games.
Obviously the best and simplest path would be for us to win the last two and the Vikes to lose their last two. I agree with Phil that we want the Giants to lose this week and badly if possible so that they will be looking at having lost 4 games in a row leading up to the playoffs and feel like they need to win against the Vikes just to have any momentum at all.
Someone should research how many teams have ever lost four games in a row to end a season and done jack in the playoffs after that and get that info on some Giants blogs and hopefully into their coaching staff's heads and onto their locker room wall.
So if we have to fight for a Wildcard spot, the other four teams in the running for the last two spots are Philadelphia, Dallas, Tampa bay and Atlanta.
Philadelphia is the only team that will be below us with only 1 more loss. I don't know how the tie breakers would go with Dallas. (We beat St. Louis/ they lost, we lost to Tampa/ they won, they beat GB/ we lost but will hopefully win to have a win and a loss to GB, we beat Philly/ they beat Philly but will hopefully lose to Philly to split with them) So for head to head what the hell does that mean when 1 team plays a common opponent once and the other team plays that opponent twice? I assume Dallas has a better strength of schedule with Pitt, Balt and their division. So lets assume we have to finish a full game ahead of Dallas. The rest need to lose both for us to leap them.
So if Philadelphia will lose to Washington next week then we will finish ahead of Philly.
If Dallas loses to Baltimore on Sat then they can lose to Philly the last week and we would finish ahead of both of them.
So then it would be us Atl and Tampa for 2 spots.
If Atl loses on Sunday (hopefully not) to the Vikes, they play St. Louis to end the year. Yes that blows. Not sure what they have in the tank or if knocking a team out of the playoffs has any chance of saving their coach's job.
Tampa plays San Diego this week who is still miraculously fighting (if you want to call it that) for their division at 6-8. Then Tampa finishes with Oakland. And again yes that also blows. Both games are in Tampa.
So we may need to have St. Louis or Oakland win their last game of the season to get us into the playoffs. Who would you have more faith in getting that done?
We need three of those four things to happen for us to win a Wildcard spot.
I know I wrote a long spiel about not giving up and then this probably seemed like a bummer but stranger things have happened.
If we are still in it after beating GB I will be much more at peace and positive about the fight in this team going into the final week regardless of the results with hope and decent optimism for next year. How about you?
December 18, 2008
#25 Z said . . .Z- I agree with you. I also liked your analogy on the play-offs. I know we still have a shot, and I think it is a better shot than most people give us credit for. I can't help but still feel a little disappointed. We put ourselves in this position, and instead of being able to count on making the play-offs we are clawing are way in. Again we did it to ourselves. Let's just hope Atlanta's running game is on point this Sunday because I would really love to watch a Bears Packers game (which always has meaning) that has a little extra bit of hope if we win.
December 18, 2008
#26 Nick said . . .Oh I am still extremely disappointed. I am only trying to send the positive, hopeful vibes right now. If Da Bears end up not making it, there will be plenty of time for me to rant about those disappointments, and I will. And there are many of them to rant about, but much will be forgiven, at least temporarily with a playoff berth. I will forgive so much more with a SB win.
December 18, 2008
#27 Rancid said . . .Amen brother...
December 18, 2008
#28 Phil from SATX said . . .Just an impression from a guy in NY (albeit upstate). From what I have seen of Coughlin and the Giants as an organization in general, I don't think they're gonna throw away a game regardless of their position. Nearly everyone up here I have talked to who is a fan of or familiar with the organization tells me this as well. This is not the type of team to sit starters and blow the game. They didn't last year, its not their style.
December 18, 2008
#29 Z said . . .It's really all up to Atlanta. Can someone who has been watching the Vikings tell me if they are really any good? Did the Cards game mean anything as to the Vikings strength right now? I would have never guessed that Tavaris Jackson would go in there and do enough to be named NFC Offensive Player of the Week. We've played them twice and I think that with a full strength Kyle we would have beaten them twice.
I have to believe that Atlanta is better than them. Are they better including the Rollerdome advantage? Anyone? Also only 1/2 of Williams wall.
December 18, 2008
#30 Murph said . . .Braylon Edwards does not want to be in Cleveland and feels he will never be accepted there because he went to Michigan. He says he gets heckled even after he makes a big play. What a bunch of tools. If they start firing people what do you think we could get him for?
December 18, 2008
#31 The Ghost of Halas said . . .Phil..........Sign Orton long term? The guy cant throw long, and he sucks in the BIG GAMES. If he didnt have Forte, you'd be praying for Rex to play. There are lots of holes to plug, and not having our 2nd and 3rd round choices from the last few years pay off its all comin home to roost. Too many guys gettin old and no youth waiting to step in. We need a great draft this coming spring and some key free agent aquisitions or its gonna be a long season next year. Hope im wrong but Im thinkin im right.
December 18, 2008
#32 Phil from SATX said . . .Hey, if anyone wants a HUGE Chicago media spawned let-down today....read Mulligan's column in the Sun-Times.
The subject is wondering about whether the Bears lost the NFC North when they lost Berrian, wondering why Forte isn't a good RB, and wondering about the demise of Brian Urlacher's career. Cheery.
December 18, 2008
#33 big rob said . . .Murph, Orton is simply not our problem. And although we haven't yet lost the division, if you want to look at a reason why we did, look no further than the man you mentioned, Rex Grossman. I fully expected for Rex to come in tan, rested and ready, and he was just awful. His awfulness was the reason they rushed Orton back from the ankle sprain - they felt like an injured Orton gave them a better chance to win than this year's version of Rex (who's actually gotten worse year over year since 2006).
Ghost, thanks for giving me a heads up not to read that column. Matt Forte not a good running back? Is it opposite day?
Seriously, though, it is becoming more and more clear to me that the Chicago Bears have to get back to basics.
Winning programs are built around lines. O-lines and D-lines. That was the recipe for our sole Super Bowl. How far away are our lines today from 1985's lines?
Keith Van Horne vs. John Tait
Tom Thayer vs. Roberto Garza
Jay Hilgenberg vs. Olin Kreutz
Mark Bortz vs. Josh Beekman
Jimbo Covert vs. John St. ClairHmmmm...
Richard Dent vs. Alex Brown
Steve McMichael vs. Dusty Dvoracek
William Perry vs. Tommie Harris
Dan Hampton vs. Wale OgunleyeDouble hmmmmm.....
Rebuild the lines. Offensive line needs more help than the D line, but we really need a stud opposite Brown, and Ogun appears not to be it any longer.
Rebuild the lines and the rest will follow...
December 18, 2008
#34 The Ghost of Halas said . . .FUCK THE PACKERS!!
December 18, 2008
#35 Click Here said . . .Rest in Peace, "Slinging" Sammy Baugh (1914-2008)
Remember when we kicked the shit out of him 73-0 in 1940 NFL Championship?
December 18, 2008
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February 2, 2011
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May 19, 2011
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June 23, 2011
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