There is a myth circulating in Bearsland that we somehow have the pole position in the race for the NFC North division title. We don’t. Not even close. The Bears are currently behind the Vikings in every conceivable way. But dry land is not a myth. I have seen it. And I spent some time this morning putting together the scenarios for those of us who simply need to know this crap or we can’t sleep right.
(Note: We’re going to leave the Green Bay Packers out of this equation for the time-being, with the full understanding that they’re still in this thing.)
BEST CASE SCENARIO
The “easiest” way for the Bears to win the division is to win two more games down the stretch than the Vikings. The Vikes have road games at Detroit and Arizona followed by home battles with Atlanta and the Giants. That’s three playoff teams and a club desperately trying to not go 0-16. The Bears should beat Jacksonville and Houston. They got a scheduling break by having the Saints at home, in December, at night. That leaves the Packers. Monday night. December 22nd. The best case scenario for this Chicago Bears team is that they need to win at home against their oldest rival to make the postseason.
BUT IF THEY DO FINISH TIED…
(1) Division Record
If the Vikings were ever to lose Sunday in Detroit and the Bears won, the “control your own destiny” ball is back in our court. If the Vikings win Sunday, the Bears could even the divisional records by beating the Packers. Monday night. December 22nd.
(2) Common Opponents
Right now the Vikings are 6-4 and the Bears are 3-5. That doesn’t sound good but all four teams left on the Bears schedule are, in fact, common opponents. The Vikings have only the Lions and Falcons remaining so if the Vikings were to win this Sunday in Detroit, the Bears would need to run the table and have the Vikes then lose to the Falcons. If the Vikings win these two games (the only two where they'll be favored), they’ll also win this tiebreaker. How’s that pole position looking?
(3) Conference Record
Vikings. 5-3. Bears 5-5. Vikings have all four remaining games against conference opponents while the Bears have New Orleans and Green Bay at home. Now think about this. If the Vikings lose two more (and one of them is Atlanta) and the Bears only lose to an AFC opponent, then this would be locked up as well. Though really analyzing things, this seems where the tiebreaker would die. If it doesn’t…
(4) Strength of Victory
Vikings up 27-13 right now. Why? The Bears last two losses have been by a total of 54 points.
WHAT DO WE REALLY NEED TO HAPPEN?
The Bears need to win out. Plain and simple. It's worth rooting for the Lions this week and the Falcons down the road but this will really all be moot if the Bears don't beat these four teams in the month of December.
#2 Spanish Bear said . . .First
December 2, 2008
#3 jeff said . . .hohoho, it was my first "first".
The point is that, right now, i don´t see the Bears winning both Saints (i know it´s Bear Weather time in Chicago, but that isn´t enough) and Packers. Period.
I´m only a couple of weeks of swichting to offseason mode.
Bear Down
December 2, 2008
#4 jeff said . . .look out for the news.
i think both the williams' are getting suspended for the rest of the season by the nfl. today.
December 2, 2008
#5 Spanish Bear said . . .and the suspensions have come down. both williams are suspended.
December 2, 2008
#6 Luke said . . .Well, now, i don´t see the Vikings wining more than 2 games (best case scenario: Lions and Giants last week).
December 2, 2008
#7 Nick said . . .No more Williams Bros. this season is a big plus. Hopefully that'll be enough for the Lions to beat them (though it probably won't be). But another awesome thing I noticed is that the Saint's D-line just took the same kind of beating, losing Will Smith and Charles Grant for the last 4 games. Duece is also suspended from the Saints, so I think the stock in the Bears winning Thursday night football against the Saints just went up considerably.
A side-note: On the 99-yard pass play, Charles Tillman looked like me playing Madden and accidentally switching to the cover guy and running him away from his assignment. You heard me, Tillman. You looked like a flawed video game. Never again. NEVER!
December 2, 2008
#8 Brian in Sec 430 Row 25 said . . .With the Vikings losing the "Williams Wall" our outlooks gets brighter and brighter. AND, with the news about the Saints D-line taking a hit that helps us also. This season we have been able to run the football and up until Orton got hurt we could pass too. Remember after the first Vikings games (the good game) we were the highest scoring offense in the NFL. We are in a better spot than most people think.
December 2, 2008
#9 brian in Sec 430 Row 25 said . . .Luke....awesome point about madden..just when I think I am switching to the Defensive end to sack the quarterback...ooops, I just took my corner 10 yds away from the play. The best description of the play I have heard so far.
I find it interesting that the NFL waited until after the Vikings played on Sunday night to announce the suspension of the Williams fat asses. National TV is no place for the NFL to highlight another suspension.....this mind set really screwed the Bears, period.
I think we are screwed, i see no way we beat N.O or Green Bay and frankly, I would not be suprised if we get pounded by jacksonville. Oh, did I mention we can get smoked by Houston? How does 6-10 sound with 5 losses to end the season sound Lovie and Jerry? I have no confidence in this team.
Finally, Kyle seems to be getting a free pass for his terrible effort since coming back from the injury.....does anyone else see an amazing resemblence between 2008 K.O and 2006 Rex? If we make a long term commitment to K.O I think we are just setting ourselves up for another 10 years of quarterback misery.
December 2, 2008
#10 brian in Sec 430 Row 25 said . . .Luke....awesome point about madden..just when I think I am switching to the Defensive end to sack the quarterback...ooops, I just took my corner 10 yds away from the play. The best description of the play I have heard so far.
I find it interesting that the NFL waited until after the Vikings played on Sunday night to announce the suspension of the Williams fat asses. National TV is no place for the NFL to highlight another suspension.....this mind set really screwed the Bears, period.
I think we are screwed, i see no way we beat N.O or Green Bay and frankly, I would not be suprised if we get pounded by jacksonville. Oh, did I mention we can get smoked by Houston? How does 6-10 sound with 5 losses to end the season sound Lovie and Jerry? I have no confidence in this team.
Finally, Kyle seems to be getting a free pass for his terrible effort since coming back from the injury.....does anyone else see an amazing resemblence between 2008 K.O and 2006 Rex? If we make a long term commitment to K.O I think we are just setting ourselves up for another 10 years of quarterback misery.
December 2, 2008
#11 jeff said . . .I have a question for all you guys...seeing how the season is quickly drawing to a dissapointing close I find myself questioning my own time and financial commitment to the Chicago Bears. My question is this, since the week leading up to Week #1 how much time and money have you spent on the Bears? I will offer up my own situation for an example:
Time: Every game 3hrs x 12 = 36 hrs
Pre and post game shows 2hrs x 12 = 24
Internet/Radio 1 hr a day x 90 days = 90 hrsMoney: Tickets $130 x 10 home games = $1300
2008 playoff tickets = $500
Stadium parking $18 x 5 = $90
Weekly tailgate $100 x 5 = $500
Misc. Bears gear = $150Totals: 150 hours and $2540.
That is 25 hours per victory and $423 per victory. (And I have the cheap seats)This does not even begin to factor the amount of time I spend thinking about the bears.
I have to be honest, when you break it all down it sounds totally pathetic. I spend this amount of money and effort watching 54 people I will never know fail at their jobs.....sad.
December 2, 2008
#12 Willie from Chicago said . . .by the way brian...i'll be in 231, row 11 on thursday night next week for the saints game.
December 2, 2008
#13 McHouse said . . .The Bears need to win out and hope to God that the Lions beat the Vikings at home.
This is a Lions team that is coming off of a pee wee league performance, so they will be hungry to get a win. Remember, this is the same Lions team that lost only by 2 to the Vikings ON THE ROAD, so they can do it.
I dont think the Vikings will loose the Giant game because the Giants will most likely rest their starters, so that is out the window. The Atlanta game is a possible loss because Atlanta will be trying to win their division. Now the Cardinal game is a game the Vikings can very well loose, especially since the Cards will be fighting for the 3rd seed in the standings.
I remember last year we were having the same discussion, but the Bears ended up loosing 2 of their last 4 games, that cant happen this year, they must win out.
December 2, 2008
#14 shonbear said . . .The Vikings have 3 games remaining against much better teams:
1. Arizona does not lose at home.
2. Atlanta and Michael Turner will coast through the gaping hole formerly known as the Williams sisters.
3. The Super Bowl NY Giants. They are 11-1We can all pray for blowouts but here's something to chew on: Have a little faith in the Lions this weekend. Why? Anybody remember 2001?
This was the last year the Lions went 0-12 heading into Week 14. And guess who they played at home? Vikings. And guess who they beat at home? Vikings.
Go Bears
December 2, 2008
#15 minnie mad dog said . . .ok the Bears need to win out, so like I said yesterday, they haven't won more than two games in a row since prior to getting to the Super Bowl (ALMOST TWO YEARS!!), so the likelyhood right now seems slim. Getting through the next two Jax and NO, what better scenario to snap this thing by crushing the Pakcers and finally getting that elusive third win monkey off our backs, thus carryigng our guys into Houston to finish the season on a high and right into the playoffs that way.
It could happen?!? What a great story it would be and it would do a lot to heal the heart ache I and we have felt this whole agonizing season, how many flash backs do you all have of those three or four games we had in our grasp when we couldn't finish.
Go Bears.
December 3, 2008
#16 shonbear said . . .Give me a break.
The beloved site is full of scenarios (esp. Jeff) about how the Bears could get to the playoffs. I agree. It is possible. So what?
The team has looked pathetic in 3 of the last 4 games and the one good performance was against shit. We were spanked by the Vikings. What do we have to be positive about? Our aging and over paid defense? Orton, the future of the franchise? Give me a break (and I am a fanatic Bears fan). It is time to accept reality and start thinking about next year.
I live in Minnesota and was just watching the local sports high lights about suspension of the fat Williams boys. That closes out the Queens season. Period. To bad they didn't send Jared Allen to Siberia, too. Hate the Queens.
Point. From a Bears perspective,however, what the local Minnesota news showed was play after play where the brilliant Bears coaches tried to run up the middle. Williams boys are like two Refrigerator Perrys side by side . Forget it. Once for the Wildcat offence. Ten times trying to have our offence run inside on the best run stoppers in football. Go wonder.
We need to forget about this pathetic year and start thinking about new coaching for 2009 and beyond.
Just my thinking.
December 3, 2008
#17 Rancid said . . .Never give up, never surrender. Best thing I heard someone say, maybe Rancid. I'll paraphrase, I will start showing some emotion or passion when the Bears start doing the same.
Believe me I'm as fed up as anybody, first it's bullshit why the NFL felt they needed to wait till after our game to suspend those fuckers. Anyway, though AP seems to have carreer games against us as the new Barry Sanders vs us. Truly we did pretty awesome against him.
Take away that 59 yard run and he's got 27 runs for 72 yards which is only a 2.66 rush per average. Fucking Kevin Payne wrap up dammit!
I say this, those of us who want to think about next year and drop the season...when that first set of wild card games is being played without the Bears, we will wish we could be watching our team instead of the fucking vikings or especially the Packers. If for no other reason hope upon hope that we don't have to see one of those two teams in the playoffs in our stead. That is just a non-starter for me.
Go Bears!
December 3, 2008
#18 Nick said . . .Don't get me wrong, I want to see Da Bears in the playoffs, I just hope they're the Bears we know they can be, not the ones we've seen lately.
December 3, 2008
#19 jeff said . . .Perfectly put Rancid. I think we all know the Bears are capable.
December 3, 2008
#20 reverend dave said . . .minnie, you're not getting new coaching in 2009. so you're better off hoping for this coaching staff to get better right now. anybody who thinks this team is firing lovie is completely out to lunch.
December 3, 2008
#21 First time said . . .my question regarding coaching this week is, ronny called a pretty creative game last week, least in the first half, against arguably the worst team in football. scratch that, arguably the second worst team in football. but then against the vikings and their d line built to stop absolutely everything going up the middle we reverted to the old brutally predictable offensive playbook.
it took us years to break out some inventive plays, we had success with them and then we file them away to save room for The Jason, and its inevitable loss of one on short yardage downs?
Mystifying.
December 3, 2008
#22 The Ghost of Halas said . . .As much as I would like to see the Bears in the playoffs I see it causing two problems.
One, the Defense NEEDS to be fixed and knowing Lovie he would continue point to fact that the 2008 Bears were a playoff team and nothing needs to be changed when in fact the Bears were just lucky to be in a crappy division.
Two, if the Bears do go to the play offs and I have to endure them getting their ass kick one more time (its killing my blood pressure) for the opportunity to get a worse draft position, because I really don't see them beating any wild card team on the road.
December 3, 2008
#23 Nick said . . .See, Jeff said yesterday that all he cared about was Chicago making the playoffs. Generally, I would whole-heartedly agree.
But my problem, of late, is that if Chicago pulls some miraculous feat of arms and ends the season at 10-6 or even 9-7 and go to the postseason, then nobody will have learned their lessons.
What I mean is that the heirs to the Halas throne will not see the problems with Smith, Turner, Babich, and Angelo if they make the playoffs. It will be glorified as a great triumph! Why should they get rid of the coaching staff and administration which has gotten them into the postseason 3 out of the last 5 seasons? If the Bears end the season with a losing record, or even with a .500 or better but do not make the playoffs then Halas Hall is going to wants answers. Heads will roll (I hope).
I cannot ever bring myself to root against the Bears, in fact I look down on those ignorant troglodytes who want the Bears to have a losing season in order to get a high draft pick (Jay Mariotti). But I'm conflicted...
Bears in the playoffs=years of more Lovie, Turner, and maybe Babich
Bears losing=the end of Lovie, the end of Turner, the end of Babich. The inauguration of a winning football franchise.
December 3, 2008
#24 Brian in Sec 430 Row 25 said . . .In 2009 Lovie will be the coach of the Bears. I really doubt anything will happen to counter that. Why are so many people focusing on next year? I understand the frustration. But there is still 1/4 of the season left. With in these 4 games a lot can happen, especially in our division. I seriously doubt anyone here wants the Bears to miss the play-offs to prove a point that Lovie Smith needs to go. Let's face it Lovie isn't the problem, execution is. Every play in the playbook is designed to score a touchdown. If you were to look at any given page in that playbook I doubt you would see a page called "Fumble Plays," "Interceptions" or "Blown Coverages." There are plays that are more often called during specific situations ie short yardage or 3 and long. But the goal of all the plays is to score. I am not giving anyone a free pass here, TIlman messed up big. Orton threw to many pics (which 2 of the 3 were tipped) but the coaches didn't say, "Peanut, let that ass-hole over paid prick run passed you so he can score and earn some of his money that might as well have stole from the dickheads her in Minnesota." I bet neither Lovie nor Babich said that.
December 3, 2008
#25 shonbear said . . .Jeff, it would be great to meet the man behind the pen at the saints game on Thursday Night. If you see a guy a few rows over screaming "Jeff!" it may be me looking for you so I can buy you a beer for all your hard work putting this great blog together..
December 3, 2008
#26 First time said . . .I see all the points, but I also know that in watching the Bears for so many years that they seem to thrive on break through's. Such as we couldn't seem to get past that playoff game when we had a first round by until we finally got past Seattle similar to the way the Packers couldn't win a playoff game in Dallas, so finally they got that playoff game in GB and it carried them to a Super Bowl victory. The Saint's allowed hurricane Katrina to ride the proverbial storm of excitement and emotion further than they should have gone (though they have a lot of talant on that team). The Bears just need a break through, the talant is there to be successful despite the coaching. The Giants were like a mirror image of the Bears about a little more than a year ago until they started a road game streak stretch and a hard fought last game of the season thriller against the New Englan Patriots which provided the needed faith to beat them in the SB. The Colts needed to just get past New England for the first time to make it to their SB victory. I don't believe that the Pats or Brady would ahve ever developed into the QB he is today if it wasn't for the "tuck" fumble. Another example is the Atlanta Falcons, they aren't spectacular, they play good D and have one of the best running backs which takes all the pressure off the rookie QB and they have a chip on their shoulder after the Mike Vick crap, so now they are a more balanced team and still riding the wave. Last years Redskins snuck into the playoffs riding the wave from their fallen comrade, see where I'm going?
My point is that we just need a break through. Every game is a potential break through opportunity. This years break through could have been the Colts win, but it wasn't followed up by the two wins that could have and should have been, so here we are still wanting, waiting, praying and hoping for it to happen.
Sure we have a crappy division, but not really (save Detroit). I mean last year our division was one pass away from GB going to the SB, the previous year we were there, this year is still being played out, possibly this division will be that close three years in a row. I still think there is a lot of parody in the league and any team can win any time (hear that Detroit?), any team can have a break through, the talant is relatively equal except those few bright and shiny stars (we could really use one of those star receiver's or at least have our average guys not drop passes, it could be the difference in like 2 or more games).
Anyways I digress, this team could win out, start believing in itself again, roll into the post season and shock the world (especially the media world). This is sports, what a story it would be how much of this season's ups and downs would be washed away in a rush if we could do that, history shows this is not likely, but that is what makes it even more exciting, the achievement of the impossible becoming possible before our eyes. Our players being as surprised as the fans when it happens is an interesting side story too.
Every game I look for that thing, that one thing that is going to happen. One to change the momentum of that specific game and two the momentum of the whole season. I long for the moment that our team regains the confidence (especially Hester). Not a false confidence like they seemed to have last season with going through the motions thinking they would just end up in the playoffs as a foregone conclusion, but more like a humble type of confidence like we see in Matt Forte.
This is my guts and every year it's the same, sometimes it comes to pass that for a time they come through and show me what I always dreamed could happen and one day, one day it will result in the ultimate prize, a return and victory to the ultimate venue and all haters of the Bears will have to watch our highlites way more than they ever wanted to, it will make them sick and make us the faithful, we will be stoic and assured with a confidence that is not a false one just waiting for the levy to break because deep inside we find it so hard to believe what we are seeing will really last and we must just be lucky.
Don't really know if our current coaches can bring this out, just think they need to maybe have a major sit down and figure it out. Break down every aspect of the last couple years and find some real solution, don't act like you think everything is ok, be prepared to make some real changes.
So until then it's time for a break through.
Go Bears!
December 3, 2008
#27 minnie mad dog said . . .I am not arguing that the Bears should throw a game to make the playoff (though it might sound like that) nor am I arguing that Lovie necessary needs to be fired. As head coaches go I believe Lovie is ok but he needs the a defensive coordinator who is a fire cracker and will get after the defensive players when they are taking plays off not make excuses for them. Its like a house you cannot have two aggressive parents in a house nor can you have two laid back parents. When the Bears went to the Super Bowl two years ago they had that balance but when they let Ron Rivera go they lost there balance. Lovie needs to swallow his pride and hire a defensive coordinator who will get after the defensive players and make them play to there potential.
And if the Bears make the playoffs I don't see Lovie making the changes that I believe he needs to on the Defense. Now if all of a sudden the Bears find the magic formula to win the last 4 games of the season and finish with 10 wins I will love to see the Bears go to the play offs but I don't want them going into the playoffs 8 and 8 and making it just because the Viqueens lose there last 4 games.
December 3, 2008
#28 minnie mad dog said . . .Jeff Of course, you are totally right.
And for all the reasons already mentioned by smart people on this site. There is no chance that Lovie is going to be canned, and we can just hope about the other lame ass coaches.
I just think that overall and on average, the players are way better than the coaches. I see fundamentally talented athletes like Hester, The DBs and even Urlacher playing without much direction, spirit or emotion. They seem lost. These guys, including a bunch of past ProBowlers, are not ALL losers. Am I wrong?
Dog
December 3, 2008
#29 And just to remind earlier posters said . . .Jeff Of course, you are totally right.
And for all the reasons already mentioned by smart people on this site. There is no chance that Lovie is going to be canned, and we can just hope about the other lame ass coaches.
I just think that overall and on average, the players are way better than the coaches. I see fundamentally talented athletes like Hester, The DBs and even Urlacher playing without much direction, spirit or emotion. They seem lost. These guys, including a bunch of past ProBowlers, are not ALL losers. Am I wrong?
Dog
December 3, 2008
#30 John said . . .Lose is what the Bears have been doing in big games lately
Loose is how we like our women after our favorite six pack of beer or how you should have your pants after a Thanksgiving feast
December 3, 2008
#31 Z said . . .WHY ARE YOU BEARS FAN'S SO OPTIMISTIC? Did you guys not see the game against the Vikings. The fact is, the bears suck. They have an old ass aging defense, a horrible QB, and pathetic receivers. So what if the Vikings have a tough schedule. You guys are all acting like the bears will win the next four with ease. The bears suck.
December 3, 2008
#32 The Ghost of Halas said . . .Ok we all have good (great) reason to be pissed at this whole team (Forte you never count with the rest of the class in these little lectures) and the coaches but seriously there is still a quarter of the season left and the Pack are 2 under .500 and the Vikings just lost their run defense for the rest of the season.
If the goal is to win the Super Bowl every year without exception then the first part of that goal to have any chance is to make the playoffs. I don't care how we do that. Just get it done.
Did anyone think we were solid favorites to go to the Super Bowl when the playoffs started in '06? It just takes being bettter than your opponent for 60 minutes on that one particular day. When the playoffs start, anything can happen. Anything. Unless of course you are not in the playoffs.
If Coach Carebear can't play bad cop ever does he need someone who can? Absofuckinglutely. Someone to scream at them and then coach can say, ok son make us proud next time, we know you can do it and then the mean old D Coordinator won't have to scream/spit in your face next time and will take that vice grip off your balls. But a whole team of good cop coaches is not cutting it.
Besides even if Smith got fired, who do we honestly think Grandma would hire? Do you really think she would get out that big old checkbook and keep writing down zeros or do you think she would get someone with potential that is affordable? Shit the Bulls got the #1 pick and hired? Drumroll please...... Vinny Del Negro?? We are trying to cheer for you Chicago and give you our time and money. Stop making it so fucking hard.
If we cheer against our Bears we will have let Lovie win with his apathy by letting him convince us to turn to the dark side. We would then not make the playoffs and in all probability still have the same coaches. I say fuck them and fuck that. I say win out and the Division and the playoffs and win the Super Bowl despite our coaches.
Step 1.
Win this fucking game.
December 3, 2008
#33 Michael L said . . .Well said, Z!
Nick, you certainly do have an ability to tribulize the momentous and complicate the obvious. Ever consider running for Congress?
December 3, 2008
#34 Rancid said . . .Heya Jeff. BTW the MIN-ATL game doesn't figure at all into tiebreaking.
If MIN beats DET this week, there is no possible way the Bears can win a tie against them.
(If this isn't clear, for common opp record to tie MIN has to lose ATL and CHI has to win out -- if MIN wins the rest they win the conf tiebreaker, otherwise if they lose another game then CHI just takes the division outright.)
So the Bears have exactly 2 possible paths to the playoffs over the Vikings:
- win 2 more games than MIN does, out of the last 4
- win just 1 more game than MIN does, as long as both MIN loses to DET and CHI beats GB-Mike
P.S. Strength of victory isn't scoring differential, it's total cumulative record of opponents beaten. It won't come down to SoV between CHI/MIN though. (However if you're curious, right now it's 0.326 (23-48-1) for CHI and 0.417 (35-49) for MIN.) Interestingly, the SoV tiebreaker could have come up between CHI/GB had CHI lost to STL last week, but it's no longer possible now.
December 3, 2008
#35 Nick said . . .Jeff - I agree that we likely won't send Lovie packing in the offseason, but what about RT? Can't we at least get rid of him? Isn't that more realistic. Please, If I don't have hope, I don't have anything.
December 3, 2008
#36 Phil from SATX said . . .Ghost- Complicating the obvious is what I do best! I am just trying to offer a positive perspective. When the Bears do poorly we tend to get down on them or on what we THINK the problems are. However negativity is like herpies, many people have it (sadly) and during outbreaks it spreads rapidly. Staying positive keeps the slim hope alive, which can also spread in a positive way.
December 3, 2008
#37 v in GH said . . .So when did it become obvious to everyone that Lovie is a shoo-in to stay as head coach of the Bears, especially if we miss the playoffs? Without any injury excuse (like last year)? The only feasible reason I would believe in is monetary, but once again I will assert that the McCaskey ownership, right now, DOES spend money, and spends money on correcting mistakes as well. So I will say it, and fervently hope it, as well, right now -
IF THE BEARS MISS THE PLAYOFFS, LOVIE AND BABICH AND RT ARE GONE.
Per Jeff, that means I'm out to lunch. And that is entirely possible, maybe even probable.
Nick, read your post again, and tell me that the only conclusion one can come to if you buy into your post is that COACHING DOESN'T MATTER.
Do you really buy that? I don't.
Example - Bad Coach: Let's run every single play up the middle, alternating Forte and Fullback. Against the pre-suspended Williams brothers. C'mon boys, EXECUTE!!!
How many times does that play get stuffed? Well about 75 out of 75. Why didn't the players just make the plays? It's not RT carrying that ball or blocking those massive fat asses! It's not his fault!
I'm not rooting against the Bears to lose. Nor to loose. Whichever flavor of potatoe you prefer. I could maybe talk about doing that but my BNA wouldn't let me. (that's Bearoxiribose Nucleic Acid for you science fans).
Here's my problem right now. I can even concoct a hopeful playoff scenario which is imaginable, in all ways but one. Bear with me as I explain.
Can the Bears go on a roll, at this late stage, playing as bad as they did in critical games against division rivals in two of the last three games? I think they can. The reason I think they can is because the D all of a sudden DOES look resurgent to me - maybe not on a early 2006 level or pre-inury 2007 level, but the D line is starting to get to the quarterback, to be disruptive. And lost in the discussion from the previous game (although Rancid brought it up in one of his many great posts of late) - was the fact that the Bears D actually played pretty damn good for much of that game, and it was Kyle and the O who let them down with the ugly INTs and short fields.
But I think the D unit could really pick it up in the last four games.
On offense, I think this could happen t00 - Al, in the last thread you repeated what many have been saying, that "the wheels have come off" for Kyle just like Rex in 2006 and 2007, he's "reverting to norm." The truth is Kyle hasn't been the same since his ankle injury. He came back too early, and while it appears to be bothering him less and less in each game, it was an injury on his planting foot. Because he was injured, there is no reason except perhaps past bias against him to think that his earlier successful games and growth he has shown this year is now gone, merely a Rex-like mirage.
I think Kyle will finish the last four games strong. I think St. Clair had a bad day against a great pass rusher, and I think he will do much better in these last games. I think Booker has already been sat down and Lloyd is now back in the mix. Matt Forte is still out there. So I think it is possible that the offense gets on a roll.
On special teams, I'm not sure about this one - but Brad Maynard has proven his value over the years, and was excellent at pinning the team down in the last game, if not kicking us out of trouble. Danieal Manning looks explosive on kick returns. And one thing I am positive about is that we will see Devin running more north-south on punt returns - game film and Dave Toub tongue-lashings from the Minny game will ensure that. So I think special teams can improve over these last four games.
Given all that, I think there is a case to be made that the team could go on a roll in the next four games, carrying them into the playoffs.
So what's the problem, why am I not able to wholeheartedly buy in to that scenario?
Because of the thing that doesn't matter to Nick but does to me, the fact that the current Bears coaches will still be calling the plays. On O and on D. The great Reverend Dave called it mystifying - how RT can get it right for the easy game but screw the pooch in the game that matters. Rancid put his hand up on that one - the great practice player who can't show up for games. [Nick, although it looks the opposite, I'm not calling you out - you're a good poster - but you're just the principal opposition voice right now in the everlasting "is it the coaches or is it the players" quandry - no offense meant.]
I have plenty of faith left in our players - veterans have proven it to me, new guys are showing it in every game - but I have ZERO faith in our coaches to do anything to help them win.
I'll be rooting, for sure. And then I'll be rooting for new coaches. Something to give me hope for the future.
Dave Wannstedt, Dick Jauron, Lovie Smith...
Who's next?
Hmmm... I'll have the combo with sweets and hots, onion rings, and a Leiny (since it's only lunchtime, I'll hold off on the hard stuff until later).
Check please!
December 3, 2008
#38 Willie from Chicago said . . .Is it even worth it with this team? I mean even if we get to the playoffs do you really think they have a chance? With the wins and losses it would really move them up in the draft if they don't get to the playoffs.
and yea that 99 play was just like in Madden. It's the same play I use online and just like Tillman the idiot on the other end will move the DB accidentally..... I bet god was playing Madden on Sunday night.
December 3, 2008
#39 Rancid said . . .Well, since the Vikings are missing the middle of thier D line, the Lions will have somewhat of a chance of winning.
BEAR DOWN.......and go Lions
December 3, 2008
#40 #23 said . . .But if God played Madden, He'd never screw up, right?
Phil - I love the BNA line. I've always struggled with the "bearimist" concept. The word sounds silly to me and it isn't really all that close to "optimist". But BNA, that works. Good stuff!
Anyway, I think that RT could serve as a scapegoat to buy Lovie another year at the wheel. Lovie gets to keep his job but replaces RT. I'm not totally sure this will happen (I assumed RT was dead last year, and nearly didn't recover) but I tend to think optimistically about any scenario in which RT potentially starts drawing unemployment. RT's good job in the Rams game proves my point about his coaching. In a game where the plan works from whistle to whistle, RT is fine, even good, creative. But when the defense is smart enough and talented enough to make adjustments, he starts twitching, drooling, and reverts to moron self. Look at Indy. What a great game, but we ran the same offense the whole game. It worked the whole game. It's hard to find Bears wins where RT was forced to adjust his game successfully throughout the contest. In my opinion this makes him a worthless coach. GET OUT OF CHICAGO. I'm no Lovie or Babs apologist, but in my mind any frustration with those men will always pale in comparison to my crusade for RTs head.
December 3, 2008
#41 jeff said . . .Do you think if I break one that could be the catalyst and resurgence that this team needs?
December 3, 2008
#42 Phil from SATX said . . .you know what always surprises me. fans who say things like, "who cares if we get into the playoffs! we'll lose anyway." i'm sorry, would you rather not make the playoffs? does having the 16th pick in the draft excite you that much more than the 24th pick? what kind of fan doesn't want one more game and at least the hope - far reaching though it may be - the hope to advance.
and on that note...atlanta in chicago in january. dallas in chicago in january. washington...it's not like the wildcards in the nfc are going to be great clubs.
December 3, 2008
#43 jeff said . . .Rancid, the RT-as-scapegoat deal probably won't work this year when the D has been as disappointing as it has and the O has actually outperformed expectations, at least until the point Kyle got injured.
Maybe a workable scenario is Lovie stays but gets two new coordinators. And I'd be okay with that, because I would assume that anyone would be an improvement over Turncoat and Patch. (hey, sounds like a movie!)
And Jeff, you're right - I wouldn't ask for losses and missing the playoffs in exchange for draft position - but I MIGHT do a trade for new coaches. That said, I don't get to make that trade, and I'll be rooting for wins as always. And you make a good point about the fact that if we make the playoffs, we are in a greatly favorable position at home against a travelling wild card team - and then you win that one and who knows what happens? Maybe some magic. So that's a great point, and I'm going to focus on that to keep my fires burning.
Thanks man!
December 3, 2008
#44 Phil from SATX said . . .phil, agree on the coaches. but i think even if lovie loses out this season, he's coming back.
December 3, 2008
#45 Truth said . . .Jeff - because of the money or because they still like him?
December 3, 2008
#46 JWilson said . . .We all want the Bears to win the division for bragging rights, however, what is the point? Does anyone actually think this team has the potential this year to win the Super Bowl? No way. I would rather see the Bears lose the rest of the season and get a better draft position. At least getting a top 10 pick we could use that as trade bait or maybe get a playmaker on offense to work with Forte. Lets be honest, we all want the Bears to win, but is it worth it??? I dont want to see a repeat disaster performace of this year.
December 3, 2008
#47 Crown said . . .What happens if the Queens lose 3 of the last 4 and the Bears Win all 4? Or the the Queens lose 3 and the Bears win 3? Do the Queens really have to lose to the Lions and the Bears win out to win the Division and or make it to the Play- offs?
December 3, 2008
#48 JWilson said . . .If the Bears don't make the playoffs, I expect Lovie to be back and Turner and Babich to be gone. The McCaskey's are too cheap to buy out Lovie's contract no matter how lifeless and apathetic his ass is on the sidelines.
December 3, 2008
#49 Truth said . . .The Bears, and any team has a chance to win in the play offs. If they make it, that will be sweet! If they lose in the 1st round so be it. I'll take a play-off season over a 6 win season any day. Making it to the play offs will make all of those huge contracts more easier to swallow. Plus as a huge fan, that play off appearance and chance at the Super Bowl means a whole hell of a lot more that a damn high draft pick!
December 3, 2008
#50 Truth said . . .JWilson, I see your point. But dont you want to win in the playoffs?? What fun is it to watch them lose in the first round. How about letting the season slide and become competitive so in the future when we go to the playoffs we can actually win?
December 3, 2008
#51 Truth said . . .JWilson, I see your point. However, dont you get sick of losing in the first round? By letting the year slide and obtaining a good draft selection, it will enable the Bears to become more dominant in the North and in the league, thus creating the Bears to WIN in the playoffs. Sometimes you have to do this to win for the future.
December 3, 2008
#52 Phil from SATX said . . .JWilson, I see your point. However, dont you get sick of losing in the first round? By letting the year slide and obtaining a good draft selection, it will enable the Bears to become more dominant in the North and in the league, thus creating the Bears to WIN in the playoffs. Sometimes you have to do this to win for the future. Unless you like 8-8 seasons and losing first round year after year.
December 3, 2008
#53 The Ghost of Halas said . . .Jwilson, may others correct me if I'm wrong, but the tiebreakers are all in play if we have the same record, which would be achieved if we win one more of our last four than they do. Like they go 2-2 and we go 3-1, we'll have identical records and the tiebreakers begin.
If we win two more than them, we win the division (not counting the Pack here). Those possibilities would be
Bears go 2-2 and Vikings go 0-4
Bears go 3-1 and Vikings go 1-3
Bears go 4-0 and Vikings go 2-2Given the Williams boys' absence, 1-3 or even 0-4 is a real possibility. Mark Schlereth who was sitting in on Mike and Mike this morning said that he believed the Bears were now the presumptive favorites to win the division, for whatever that's worth.
December 3, 2008
#54 Phil from SATX said . . .Well, remember kids, there was that nasty little rumor floating about concerning Coach Smith being a candidate for Wade Phillips' job in Dallas. Ha. Perhaps he would jump out of his contract and rush to Dallas...
...unlikely.
December 3, 2008
#55 JWilson said . . .Truth, we have unfortunately proven over and over again that who you pick is far more important than when they are picked. We were all pretty excited about having that #4 pick in the draft a few years ago weren't we!
And you shouldn't be sick of losing in the first round of the playoffs, because it doesn't happen all that often. So yes, playoffs should be a goal always, no matter how bad the team looks, and Jeff points out that a cold day in Soldier Field has derailed more than one squad who may have looked better than us on paper. So if you were offered a chance to WIN a game in the playoffs, even if you lose once you travel to New York or Tampa Bay or Carolina, wouldn't you like that?
Draft position really means nothing. Now new coaches, THAT means something. And I'll take Lovie back if it means new offensive and defensive coordinators. Problem with that is, who's going to come knowing Lovie's a potential lame duck? Maybe THAT'S the best argument that Bears management may do nothing at all with the coaching. If that happens, I will be a very sad and angry Bear fan.
December 3, 2008
#56 Phil from SATX said . . .I want them to MAKE the play offs! I want them to WIN ALL of their play off games. I want them to Make it to the Super Bowl. It might not happen, but I still have faith in my team that they WILL! A play off loss might be hard to deal with. But a fucking losing season is even worse! My point is I want the Bears to win each and every game. And never once would you hear me say, throw away this season for a draft pick. That sounds like a Bears fan who has lost his faith.
December 3, 2008
#57 Rancid said . . .Now I'm going to contradict myself - actually everyone would come. If you do a good job but the team flounders, you may be in line to become the new head coach. So maybe there's at least as much incentive to come as to stay away.
December 3, 2008
#58 NittyGritty34 said . . .Screw draft position. It's all a crap shoot anyway. The playoffs are why you play. If you're willing to throw away the playoffs to move up a spot or two on draft day, then you might as well not even take the field. 1 playoff loss is better than no playoff game.
December 3, 2008
#59 Phil from SATX said . . .If you're a bears fan, you root for your team every week, period. Regardless of playoff implications or the absence thereof. High draft picks do not guarantee quality additions. Cedric Bumson as case in point. I don't care how bad we look, how bad I think we'll do in the playoffs, and how bad our division is. I don't care if we got in because the Williams Sisters got suspended. I don't care. We're Bears fans here, we root for them to win. Anything else and you may as well be a Packer fan.
I understand all the negativity and pessimism, but as a life long bears fan, I remember so many years where we weren't even competitive and the high draft picks did nothing to change things the following year in most cases. If we make the playoffs, that will be the third time in 5 years and the third division title in 5 years, and at least one superbowl appearance. A marked improvement over the nineties. I'm just as pissed at Lovie, babitch Patch, Turner, and Angelo as everyone else. But remember this, they're not Wanny, Jauron, Shoop, and Shea.
Don't get me wrong, underachieving is never okay. but consider this; In 2001 we got to the playoffs with a 13-3 record because our average team greatly overachieved. I think we all knew at the time that their playoff hopes were dismal at best, even with the great record. They had a lot of lucky bounces that year and won many games they probably shouldn't have. Contrast that with this team who has much more talent and better coaching (I think compared to Jauron and Shoop) and who has, thus far, underachieved. If they somehow make the playoffs then I have more hope that they can pull off some upsets because I do believe we have the talent.
Point is, I love overachieving teams because they play hard, but they rarely have a legit chance at the title. I hate underachieving teams but they at least have a chance at turning that switch in the playoffs because the talent is there, just sleeping.
Also, contrast this team with 2006 who started strong and finished weak. This team started average and may finish strong. Why? It seems T Harris is finally picking his game up. As goes Harris, so goes the D line. As goes the D line, so goes the the rest of this defense. Hence, regardless of how much we've underachieved to this point, we have the talent to make an actual playoff run. I refuse to give up hope until the fat lady sings so loud that my eardrums actually rupture. Let's all put the fat lady away for a few more weeks shall we.
BEAR DOWN BEAR FANS, IT'S WHAT WE DO!
December 3, 2008
#60 NittyGritty34 said . . .NittyGritty, that there may have just been the post of the year. Seriously. I never would have thought about it that way if you hadn't said it.
Congrats brother, and thank you.
December 3, 2008
#61 NittyGritty34 said . . .By the way, we almost beat the Panthers, Bucs, and Falcons, three teams we may see in the playoffs, should we get there. In fact, we should have won at least two of those games. If we win the division, we'll get one of those teams the first week of the playoffs, in Chicago in January. We can still do this.
December 3, 2008
#62 Oaktown34luv said . . .Your'e very welcome Phil and thanks for the props.
We bleed together on this site, we hope together on this site, we even commiserate on this site. We never ever root against the bears on this site. Not ever.
December 3, 2008
#63 Willie from Chicago said . . .I too like NG34's theory about under achieving teams having a better chance in the playoffs than over achieving teams. That explains why I remain hopelessly devoted to this year's team despite all the poor performances we've seen. It also explains why my frustration is higher now than at any point in the past 30+ years. This team has talent but plays soft, in the past we didn't have talent but played hard.
Come on guys!!! It only takes one spark (play) to ignite the roaring fire because the Bears got plenty of kindling (talent).
Fire up and Bear Down!!
December 3, 2008
#64 jeff said . . .Guys, draft position is meaningless if you dont know how to draft, look at our pick in the last few year, how did those turn out?
December 3, 2008
#65 Reverend Dave said . . .1. our draft record is no worse than anybody else's in the league. i have written about this over and over again and i'm tired of arguing the point.
2. you want to know how important the williams sisters are to the vikings? the first place vikes are playing the 0-145 lions and vegas isn't setting a line yet.
December 3, 2008
#66 jdawg said . . .Nitty, I like a lot of your points but I am not contrasting this years squad to the 06 till i see them finish strong. They havent yet given me at least any indication of that happening.
To be honest I think we started out way stronger than we are now. Think about it we beat Indy and the Eagles and dropped to the Panthers, Bucs and Falcons all playoff contenders with winning records and all in the final seconds by a couple points because of one failed play each game. Oh and we slaughtered the Lions. Since then we have been lost by significant margins to the Pack and Vikes, and struggled mightily against the lowely Lions. Sure we beat up a miserable Rams team and played away a very winnable game against a very good Titans team but thats hardly enough to really offset the fact that our pass D has been significantly worse since the the first quarter of our season and that cause of injury or whatever, KO's performance has slipped from its midseason high.
Im not saying success isnt still possible or that we cant finish strong but i need to see that 4 game win streak first. And incidentally that 06 team that didnt finish strong only dropped one more game in the second half of the season than it did the first. One of those was a game to the pats that came down to a blown Urlacher opportunity and the other was the Packer NYE disaster which while painful was not by any means a game we needed to win. Sure Rex became bipolar in the second half but the rest of the team picked him up. This year our third loss of the back eight was a game we really needed to win and no one is around to pick anyone up cause they are all falling down themselves.
December 3, 2008
#67 Nick said . . .Hey Jeff,
I think I must have missed your posts about our drafts against other teams. Do you have a link?
Personally, I'd rather win the division because we were the best team, not because the Vikes lost the Williams wall.
But it is what it is.
December 3, 2008
#68 Z said . . .Phil- My post wasn't intended on saying coaching doesn't matter. It does matter, but in order to "appear" as a good coach your players need to execute and do their jobs. Football is the ultimate team sport, it's 11 guys doing 11 different jobs. If everyone does their job were are OK. That is not what is happening. We will have one breakdown that results in a big play for the opposition. People are calling for all the coaches jobs, Turner, Babich and Lovie. I truly think these coaches are OK. Not horrible not great, but good enough, especially with some of the talent we have. The coaches just need to go back to basics and have the team do the little things right. At this point in the season some of the players are trying too hard to do too much when all we need is for 11 guys to do THEIR jobs.
I am happy with anyway we get into the play-offs. Weather it's by us winning out or if it's by the Vikes losing 3 out of 4. Play-offs are play-offs no matter how you get there. Last years Giants are a perfect example. I am not sure who posted it but I am a big believer in the Bears needing one little spark to get the ball rolling. That spark could come this weekend.
December 3, 2008
If the coaches are good enough and the players are talented enough than why do we suck?
If all we need is for the players to do the little things and/or their job and they aren't and the coaches can't get them to do that, then what should we do? Nothing?
Either we need benchings or firings but I guess the status quo will have to do for one more game.
Go Bears!!
Now does everyone agree that this game is a must win?
December 4, 2008
Here at DaBearsBlog, you are free to kill us or the Bears as you so wish. You are not free, however, to be an asshole. So if you spew racism or ill-meaning foul language (cursing about football is just fine) or anything of that ilk, your comments ain't gonna last long, jerk.