I had a dream last night (yes I occasionally dream about the Bears) that the Jacksonville Jaguars won Sunday by the score of 54-7. I tell you this because if it were to happen DaBearsBlog will officially become the home of Tony Stewart's #14 and the United States national soccer team as they prepare for South Africa in 2010 on Monday morning.
I did exhaustive research (ten, twenty minutes) last night into my picks this season and made some startling discoveries. (1) I'm 6-6 picking winners. (2) On average I missed the Bear opponents' total score by ten points to the south - meaning I've continually thought the Bears defense should be ten points better than they are. (2) On average I have nailed the Bears offense right on the button, meaning that I've countered guesses on the low side perfectly with guesses on the high side. With the exception of the two Vikings games and the Packers game, I've rarely been off by double digits.
So what's going to happen against the Jags? Here are five plays that will actually take place.
First Quarter - Bears 3rd and 6 at the Jags 19 (11:09)
Kyle Orton throws a perfect slant route through the hands of Devin Hester, who had a clean road to the end zone in front of him. Robbie Gould comes on and kicks a 36 yarder to put the Bears up 3-0.
First Quarter - Bears 1st and 10 at the Jags 27 (3:46)
After Kevin Payne intercepts an errant pass from David Garrard, Kyle Orton throws a touchdown strike on play-action to a wide open Greg Olsen headed toward the right corner of the end zone to give the Bears a 10-3 lead.
Second Quarter - Jags 3rd and 15 at their own 7 (3:15)
David Garrard is sacked by Alex Brown and fumbles; recovered by Adewale Ogunleye at the 2. It only takes three Matt Forte runs to score and give the Bears a 20-6 lead.
Third Quarter - Jags 1st and goal at the Bears 1 (9:47)
The Jags come out of locker room and call seven perfect plays and move the ball the length of the field. With first and goal at the one, Garrard runs a draw from the shotgun and puts the Jags back in it. 20-13.
Fourth Quarter - Bears 1st and 10 at their own 38 (13:17)
Kyle Orton throws a screen pass to Matt Forte, who breaks a pair of tackles en route to a game-icing 62 yard touchdown. 27 - 13. Forte gains another fifty yards in the quarter to put the game out of reach.
Chicago Bears 27
Jacksonville Jaguars 13
oh...wait...
Chicago Bears 27
Jacksonville Jaguars 23
#2 animal said . . .First Bitches!
I am just going to focus on my boy Forte carrying the Bears AND my Fantasy team in the playoffs!December 5, 2008
#3 Decatur Staleys # 7 said . . .Jeff, I added up 23 Fantasy points for F0rte from just the plays you predict. If you are right Im a happy, happy man
December 5, 2008
#4 jeff said . . .Jeff,
This week must be really be bothering you about the Bears.3 different post about this team,an no around the league.
I been kinda reserved in my comments,because i just want to win(no fire Lovie,I hate Ron Turner,Our Oline sucks,Our Defense sucks..etc)
I have a whole off season(not make the playoffs) to dwell on that if it comes to pass.
Even though this team has pissed so many chance away this season,They are still alive for the playoffs.An I sure there alot of teams whose season was pissed away early would trade places with us right now(Looking at you Lyings,Aints,4.9ers,Seachickens,Faiders,Dolts,Chefs,Brown-eye,Bungles,Tex-mess,Jag-Fags,Rams)
December 5, 2008
#5 Max said . . .yeah, it's hard to care about what else is happening around the league. i just want to get the taste of sunday night out of my mouth and a i need a ballgame to do it.
December 5, 2008
#6 Phil from SATX said . . .word
December 5, 2008
#7 So.Ill Bears Fan said . . .Jeff, your ending was hilarious.
Great point by Decatur on the list of those who are behind us.
I'd like to spend a minute listing some teams, that, records aside, I'd feel okay saying we're better than right now.
Rams
Lions
Raiders
Seahawks (what in the world happened to that club?)
Bengals
Browns
Chiefs
Texans (I hope, and we'll have chance to prove)
Jags (same as above)I think that's all I can confidently list there. So to me, records aside, right now we're no worse than 22nd in the league.
Teams I feel confident we're worse than
Giants
Patriots
Steelers
Titans
Cowboys
Panthers
Jets
Ravens
Falcons
BuccaneersSo by this I'm saying we're no better than 11th in the league.
Teams I'm not sure about (the rest, but I'll show them)
49'ers
Chargers
Cardinals
Broncos
Vikings
Packers
Redskins
Eagles
Dolphins
Bills
Colts (even though we beat them, it was first game of season)
Saints (we'll have chance to prove it)Somewhere between 11th and 22nd - giving an average of 16th - right there in the middle of the pack. Of the last group, if we strapped it up right now and went after them, I think we'd have a good chance of beating the Bills, Redskins, Saints (at least at home), and Dolphins. I think we'd probably lose to 49'ers, Cardinals, Broncos, Eagles and Colts.
I left Vikings and Packers out of it. We'll have a chance to hold serve against the Pack soon.
What's all this supposed to mean?
1) It could be worse.
2) It's not nearly good enough.December 5, 2008
#8 Max said . . .Thank you oh great almighty Jeffrodamous!
I hope your right! I really truelly do!
Let's Go Bears!
December 5, 2008
#9 Al In WI said . . .Federal judge just blocked the suspensions for the five players suspended by the NFL for violating the leauges anti doping policy.
Fuckin guy must be a Saints or Vikes fan. . . damn
December 5, 2008
#10 jdawg said . . .According to reports around Minnesota the Williams wall is likely to have their suspension drug (no pun) out until next season. Meaning the vikes are likely to go at least 2-2 down the stretch. Meaning to pull off this division the Bears have to go 4-0. No margin for error, no excuses.
December 5, 2008
#11 JP said . . .Its hard to know what I really want to see Sunday, given that the Jags are probably a couple notches above the Rams. If we win big I'll be unimpressed. If we win small I'll be depressed and if we lose I start thinking about the off-season.
Its sad when the only thing that will get me excited is the Lions beating the Vikes, but what the hell.
December 5, 2008
#12 Phil from SATX said . . .As I said before and I know it's not popular, but this team needs a shakeup from the front office down. A win or two to the end the season might be just enough to keep the organization from making the big changes that they need to do to get back to the big game. As long as this team settles for mediocrity we will be outside looking in. I for one am sick of it.
The say the definition of insanity is to keep “doing the same thing and expecting different results.”
If Lovie's only solution is to divide the season into little pie pieces and keep telling the media and players the team just needs to play better...well that's insanity.
December 5, 2008
#13 Willie from Chicago said . . .This is actually a great scenario, because it does force us to go 4-0. I believe the Vikes WILL go 2-2, beating the Lions easily and then beating the Giants' second and third stringers in their meaningless last game. (Only thing that mitigates against that is last year's precedent of the Giants finishing strong - they may actually be a club that decides they want to win every game regardless). Vikes lose to Cards in the desert and to ATL at home.
Therefore Bears need to win FOUR IN A ROW.
And guess what? With Vikings at full strength, if the Bears win four in a row and Vikes only win two, our erstwhile heroes will have EARNED their way into the playoffs and go in on a four game winning streak.
And get to host one of those beatable teams on the frozen shores of Lake Michigan. Then it's five in a row. And now THEY'RE the story of the NFL.
Of course, if Vikes take either of the ATL or ARI games, then it's curtains for the Bears, with a sort of repeat of last year, crappy season that finishes strong. And then we get to keep all the coaches for their strong finish. Yippee!
But I love the scenario of backs against the wall. The only way to go out.
BEAR DOWN!
December 5, 2008
#14 Shady said . . .Well, I wouldn’t count the Lions out just yet, they are desperate and they are at home. The will put up a good fight against the Vikings.
If the Bears loose the game vs the Jags, then this season is over. At least my second favorite team the Dolphins (again, I don’t love them nearly as much as I love the Bears but ever since I moved to south Florida at the age of 4 from Chicago, they’ve been my adopted team) have a chance to make the playoffs, which I called in the beginning of the season.
BEAR DOWN
December 5, 2008
#15 Phil from SATX said . . .OH MAN IT'S GONNA BE COLD ON SUNDAY!
I think Kyle loves this weather and he'll do great if he's 100%.
The offensive line will have something to prove after that weak performance on the goalline last week and should give Forte some hole to run through and Kyle time to find WRs (if they can get open).
The real question will be if the defense can use the weather to it's advantage and force turnovers. The weather gets cold and the ball becomes harder, making it more difficult to throw, catch and hang onto. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a PLETHORA of fumbles this Sunday.
Can the defense have a dominant performance? If so, there's hope.
If not, you can mail this season in.
Believe it or not, I thought this defense played well last week. They beat up Adrian Peterson pretty well, and outside of a few missed tackles (Kevin Payne knocking your own players off of AP) I thought the unit didn't play that bad. Of course the statistics didn't show it, mostly because the Bears offense went INT, Punt, Punt, INT, INT, Punt in their last 6 possessions.
C'mon bizzarro Bears! Find the type of defense that has been your bread and butter for the past, oh I don't know... forever! And help your offense out already!
Bear down (and 2 tickets still available for Sunday's game if you want to go!) cheap cheap!
e-mail hcbrandt2000@aol.com if you're interested.
December 6, 2008
#16 Willie from Chicago said . . .Willie, please man, it's LOSE. We need to reform you guys one man at a time. We tried with Megan, not sure if we ever succeeded. Can you work with us a little? Don't you read Pet Peeve's posts? (is that you Mikeb? Or Rancid? I don't know).
Shady, great points all around - I especially noted the comment about Payne, in fact I thought I witnessed that all day - later guys knocking earlier guys off Peterson. Not sure if there's anything that can be done about that, it looks like just bad luck.
I was glad to see the gang tackling, and I just have to say once again that AP is some kind of extraordinary runner - he really did amaze - we kept tivoing backwards, going "how the hell did he do that?" Sometimes you just have to take your hat off to an exceptional performer. What I DON'T get is why the Vikings can't beat every single team with this runner and that D. I suspect they have some of the same coaching questions we do.
These really are four winnable games. Three games at home, in sub-frigid weather, against teams without winning records.
I'm really hoping all coaches realize they better be coaching their ASSES off to save their jobs. Turner, quit the freaking stage fright, will ya? Come with an aggressive game plan, be creative, go for broke, but in an intelligent way. Babich, keep up the resurgence and MOTIVATE your players as best possible - I do think you may be a motivator, I remember you in early 2007 jumping around on the sidelines. Dave T, time for you to regain the magic. Lovie, don't know what to tell you, you're a black box. JUST DO BETTER. (like you tell us your players need to do).
START WITH THIS ONE.
JUST WIN.
December 6, 2008
#17 Willie from Chicago said . . .Phil, I have been spelling pretty bad, but my computer is screwed up and I cant see what I'm typing, so I cant chack what I'm posting.
December 6, 2008
#18 Willie from Chicago said . . .Well, I spelled check wrong, fucking computer.
December 6, 2008
#19 Willie from Chicago said . . .But I apologize for my poor use of spelling.
December 6, 2008
#20 Z said . . .But Phil you have to remember, when I started posting on dabearsblog last year, I spelled horribly, and I have gotten much better, but I do occasionally screw up by spelling a word like lose wrong.
December 6, 2008
#21 Phil from SATX said . . .Willie I agree your spelling has improved leaps and bounds. We all make a couple fuck ups, especially when we are typing fast trying not to get caught at work/school.
Come On Bears. Backs against the wall. Show us what your made of.
December 6, 2008
#22 Z said . . .I'll agree with Z 100% Willie, you have improved drastically since you began. Good work! Everyone who writes a lot (like some of us have written as part of their jobs) knows that the way you improve is by doing it. Plus I got about 30 years on you. Even us old guys get things wrong - I know Shady meant to say "to its advantage" - not "to it's advantage." If you can master the difference between its and it's you'll be better than about 200 million spellers in this country - maybe more. That one's simple - never use that apostrophe unless you really want to say "it is." Most of the time that's not what you want to say.
Every once in a while we have conversations like this here and I know everyone hates it. So I'll stop now.
It's (hey there's one right there) a little surreal to me that the season hangs in the balance by how we play in less than 48 hours. Also hard to believe that there may be only four more games for us this year.
LET'S MAKE THEM COUNT, HOW BOUT IT BEARS?
BEAR DOWN AMERICA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
December 6, 2008
#23 Z said . . .Phil is funny. Jeff too.
My BNA is coded for life it seems. I always feel we can win before each game. I just see the reasons that we should based on the talent that we have. I am begging you Bears. Win Win Win and Win.
But to start with please just Win.
December 6, 2008
#24 Phil from SATX said . . .I'll take comment #23. Here's hoping that Forte and Rose keep giving us a taste of excellence that may one day even resemble a fleeting glimpse of the glory that Sweetness and Money gave us in Chicago for all those years. Damn they are missed.
December 6, 2008
#25 Z said . . .Check this out:
From our new fullback, Jason Davis, in responding somewhat tartly to the controversy over the failed goal line play he was involved in:
"Last Sunday's not the first time we've run a dive and gotten stopped," Davis said. "You're talking about running against arguably the two best defensive tackles in our conference [in Pat and Kevin Williams]."
He's right, of course. It's about the 187th time we've run a dive and gotten stopped. But at least he recognizes that.
I nominate Jason Davis for the office of offensive coordinator. Any seconds on the floor?
December 6, 2008
#26 CA BEAR FAN said . . .I second.
At least it seems like he had scouted the Vikings and knew that they had a dominating rush defense especially in the middle with that 750 pd. wall of DT's. Or maybe he just remembered from us playing them before.
Either way realizing that running up the middle off center would be a very low percentage play would seem to qualify him over RT. At least make him assistant OC.
December 6, 2008
#27 CA BEAR FAN said . . .HONESTYLY! i want the bears to lose all these last four games! why? cause i want Lovie and his dumbass friends(RON TURNER BOB BABICH) out of chicago! i dont want them to make the playoffs...i want those three stooges to be fired and not have any excuse on why they shouldnt be fired! I JUST HATE THESE FUCKING COACHES! THEY FUCKED OUR SEASON!
December 7, 2008
#28 NittyGritty34 said . . .OFFSEASON:
1) big time RECEIVER
2) 1 big time O LINEMEN
3) 1 big time DBack FS or CB
4) 1 good line backer for hillenmeyer
5) BETTER FUCKING COACHES!December 7, 2008
Jeff, don't change you prediction to 27 - 23 because now it will be 27-33 we lose. Have you learned nothing. You should be predicting Bears 21 opponent 0, the rest of the way. Then we win out 21-10 in each game.
December 7, 2008
Here at DaBearsBlog, you are free to kill us or the Bears as you so wish. You are not free, however, to be an asshole. So if you spew racism or ill-meaning foul language (cursing about football is just fine) or anything of that ilk, your comments ain't gonna last long, jerk.