Make your selection for the picks contest on the previous post. You can get there easily by CLICKING HERE.

You also have 17 days remaining to purchase the blog tee shirt. So do that, jerks, by CLICKING HERE.

Tee Shirt Sales

The Reverend is also on a bye this week so we’re using this opportunity to sell some more tee shirts. Tees will only be on sale through Halloween and then we’re closing down shop on this brilliant design (PICTURED ABOVE) by the aforementioned Reverend and the great Michael Lapinski (@m_lapinski on Twitter). These make an excellent gift for the holiday season and this will be the last opportunity for you to order the shirts before that point.

So go and support the site, buy a tee shirt and show a Bears fan you love them. To do so, CLICK HERE.

Picks Contest Reminder.

If you have not entered the contest by now you are ineligible to win the contest. To see a the current standings after five weeks, CLICK HERE. We will update the standings again in three weeks or so.

Picks Contest Prize.

You’ll be invited as special guest of DaBearsBlog to this year’s Round One Draft Party on Thursday night, April 25th at Cortland’s Garage in Bucktown. The prize includes:

• Accommodation for draft night at The Willows Hotel, Lakeview. To see the hotel, CLICK HERE. I’ll also be in the hotel and will gladly take you for a drink at the local spot Monsignor Murphy’s if you so choose.
• DaBearsBlog will cover the open bar for you and a +1 at the event.
• Two automatic entries into the ticket contest giveaway that evening. (We’ll announce the particular game and details once the schedule is released next spring.)
• A pair of 2012 DaBearsBlog tee-shirts.

*Sadly we’ve removed the Lou Malnati’s gift card for now due to some issues that have arisen. I am working on them and will have either the Malnati’s card restored or something in its place.

The Week’s Lines.

Remember:

• You only pick one team against the spread.
• Once you select the team they are unavailable to you for the remainder of the season.
• It is NOT a survival pool. The highest winning percentage at Week 15 will be awarded the prize. If there are ties, we’ll decide in Weeks 16 and 17 by increasing the number of games selected incrementally.
• You don’t need to pick every week. But you must make ten selections between Week One and Week Fifteen. If you picked in Week One you do not need to pick in Week Two if you don’t like the games.
• DO NOT MAKE YOUR SELECTION IN THE BODY OF ANOTHER COMMENT. YOUR SELECTION SHOULD BE IT’S OWN COMMENT AND CONTAIN ONLY THE NAME OF THE TEAM YOU ARE SELECTING. (Otherwise it’s a terrible bitch for me to tally up each week.)
• Picks are due by kickoff of the early games Sunday. Picks will only be accepted in the comments of THIS post.

(Home team in CAPS)

Cincinnati -1 CLEVELAND

NEW YORK JETS -3.5 Indianapolis

TAMPA BAY -4 Kansas City

ATLANTA -9 Oakland

BALTIMORE -3.5 Dallas

PHILADELPHIA -4 Detroit

MIAMI -3.5 St. Louis

New England -3.5 SEATTLE

ARIZONA -4.5 Buffalo

SAN FRANCISCO -6.5 New York Giants

WASHINGTON -3 Minnesota

HOUSTON -3.5 Green Bay

I am violating my rule by picking a team and line I don’t love. But I can’t see how (1) Cincinnati won’t rebound from their putrid performance against the Miami Dolphins last week and (2) Cleveland can keep their head above water after dominating the Giants for a quarter plus and still being torpedoed. I also can’t imagine going into Cleveland right now will be the most hostile environment around (unless you’re the Browns) so I’ll take the BENGALS and lay the point.

REMINDER: ROUND TWO OF TEE SHIRT SALES HAS BEGUN AND WILL CONCLUDE ON HALLOWEEN, OCTOBER 31ST. TO CHECK OUT THE SHIRT AND MAKE YOUR ORDER, CLICK HERE.

You must enter ten selections to be eligible to win the Picks Contest. The following are the standing through five weeks of the season. Unfortunately for MichBearFan, I have found you selected Philadelphia twice and thus you have been eliminated from the competition. (If I made a mistake, please email me at jeff@dabearsblog.com.) Also, because I can, I haven’t even looked at the selections from thebigcheese.

I am not including the teams you’ve used thus far. You must keep track of those yourselves. If you believe I have made a mistake, please email me.

Mathematically you are not eliminated until you’ve registered a sixth loss as Crown is guaranteed no worse than a 5-5 record. Pushes are losses.

THE STANDINGS

Crown 5-0 (Due to a bonus point won)

Blogfader 4-0

MonkeyNuts 4-0

MikeV in OR 2-0

Chris Odom 2-0

OsosFan 1-0

Perno 1-0

505Bears! 1-0

Jokey 1-0

Artoo 4-1

Ben in norcal 4-1

I Bleed Navy + Orange 4-1

Bearfanincb 4-1

evantonio 3-1

BobbyDouglass 3-1

Sirwiz 3-1

Viva 3-1

TheFifth 2-1

Enderwiggin 3-2

Bears-4-Ever 3-2

jmcyclone 3-2

Santa Claus Gave us a QB 2-1

Bearsssssssssssss 1-1

Nagurski 1-1

Slsmth54 1-1

Bigboar3 1-1

JohnnyWad 2-2

BigHurtNYC 2-2

DYLbear23 2-2

ChiRy 2-2

BearDown85 2-2

IrishSweetness 2-2

reprisal 2-2

FQD1911 2-3

#76 Mongo Murph 2-3

MB30SD 2-3

lindemrm 2-3

Shady 2-3

SC Dave 1-2

Michael L 1-2

NewBearinTown 1-3

4ever85 (AKA Butch DeadLift) 1-3

Tobijohn 1-4

Doc Nitty 34 1-4

Who is Willie Gault 1-4

CanadaBear 1-4

David Williams 0-1

Ufficio 0-1

PombeGeek 0-1

RenoBear 0-1

Jedthro 0-1

Deemoney23 0-1

roughneckjoe 0-1

NGB 0-1

MikeBrownHadaPosse 0-3

McFlpside 0-3

AlbertinTuscon 0-3

MattySouthside 0-4

If you don’t see your name listed above and you should, email me.

No picks contest bonus tonight. Enjoy Thursday Night Football.

REMINDER: THE SECOND ROUND OF TEE SHIRT SALES HAS BEGUN AND THE WINDOW WILL CLOSE OCTOBER 31ST. CLICK HERE TO ORDER YOURS! (To see the tee shirts, look up.)

We’ve also received a solid number of email questions for the Monday Mailbag. Keep ’em coming to jeff@dabearsblog.com.

___________________________________________________

RIP the Great Alex Karras

Charles Tillman Wins NFC  Defensive Player of the Week

Does anyone want to continue commenting or Tweeting about Tillman’s sub par effort against the Giants in the preseason? Anyone? Anyone? Here’s Peanut’s second pick six in consecutive weeks:

Pat Mannelly on Display!

I named this column for Mannelly after the ridiculousness of his audible against the Green Bay Packers several years ago prompted me to call for everyone working at Halas Hall to be fired. Then I found this video this morning and just had to post it. To Pat!

Passing time around here on the bye week is always fun, isn’t it?

After selling an absurd amount the first time around we’ve made the official Bears blog tee shirt for 2012 available for sale AGAIN. We did not raise the price, keeping it at the symbolic $19.85. As with last year, you can get two shirts for the even-more symbolic price of $34 and three shirts for $51. (The image of the tee shirt is listed above. The type for the back of the shirt is quite small and tasteful.)

The shirt was conceived by Reverend Dave, designed by the great Mike Lapinski and will be made by my boy Jared.

Just go ahead and write in the comment box what color (we have both the orange and navy base) and what size (S, M, L, XL, 2XL) you’d like. If you’re ordering multiple shirts just write: Orange – XL, Navy – S…etc.

We’re going to send out the orders in one large shipment again. The close-off date for this order of tee shirts will be October 31st – Halloween. These orders will arrive to your home by Thanksgiving. These shirts make excellent Christmas gifts for the Bears fan(s) in your family so you’ll want to get in on THIS shipment. I can’t guarantee we’ll have selling shirts in December.

We’ll be doing a lot of housekeeping around here Wednesday – Friday, including another round of tee shirt sales and the picks contest standings.

Also we’ll be doing our first ever DA BEARS BLOG MAILBAG on Monday, October 15th. Many of you out there don’t spend much time in the Comments arena and I thought it’d be nice to give you a chance to make your presence known on the site. Send a question or comment to jeff@dabearsblog.com.

First, five questions arising from these terrific first five games of the 2012 season.

QUESTION #1

Can Brandon Marshall insert himself into the MVP discussion if the Bears defense continues to dominate?

Doubtful but Marshall is on pace to shatter everything done by wide receivers in Chicago. He’s staring down 100 catches, double-digit touchdowns and nearly 1500 yards. He has changed the complexion of the Bears offense by drawing the attention of opposing defensive coordinators and giving Jay Cutler a reliable target on third and fourth down short-yardage situations. Jay Cutler and Matt Forte are very good football players. I’m getting the sense Brandon Marshall is a great one.

Take a look at how Marshall is stacking up in Bears WR history by CLICKING HERE.

QUESTION #2

Both Major Wright and Chris Conte have struggled at times on pass plays over the top. Will this possible deficiency hurt the Bears anytime soon?

It very well could but we won’t have to wait long to know. The Detroit Lions want their quarterback to drop back into the pocket and unleash the ball deep and they’ve got the wide receiver (Calvin Johnson) to do it. If the Bears don’t get pressure on Stafford a week from Monday night, Conte and Wright will be seeing a heavy workload. Let’s see how they produce.

QUESTION #3

Can Jay Cutler win a close one?

Maybe he won’t face the situation but the Bears have yet to need their franchise quarterback to take the ball eighty yards, down four, three minutes to go. You can’t fault the Bears defense for playing the way they’re playing but the Bears will not win a Super Bowl without Cutler making a big play at a clutch moment. With his offensive line performing far better than even a few weeks ago, Cutler won’t have any excuse for not succeeding in the big moment.

QUESTION #4

Will Devin Hester continue to look normal in the return game?

Thus far the greatest kick returner in the history of football has looked average. But one thing we know for sure is the Detroit Lions are somewhat-defined by their complete inability to make a tackle on special teams. If Hester continues to look human against the Lions at Soldier Field, we may be looking at the Bears no longer entering each game with the overwhelming special teams advantage they’ve maintained for seven years.

QUESTION #5

Will we see Brian Urlacher in 2012?

I believe it is the definitive question facing the Chicago Bears moving forward. Can the Bears defense continue to succeed with Urlacher playing at this 40-60% level? Yes. They are simply playing at outrageously high levels everywhere else on the defense. But teams will look at the Cowboys and Jaguars tapes and see two definitive lessons: (1) Urlacher is struggling to protect the middle of the field from tight ends and backs. (2) Urlacher is struggling to make it to the edge. Until he proves he can do both routinely, I expect teams to attack him directly. If Urlacher is able to get to 75-80%, this defense will not have competition for the status of league’s best.

It never felt like a blowout, even as Cutler erupted in the second half and the Reverend and I questioned with Chad Henne was actually the Jaguars backup quarterback. It never felt dominant, even as Armando Allen (really?) showed some of that early-camp flash. The second half of this 41-3 rout felt more like relief. Good relief but relief nevertheless. It allowed me to breathe at the North Haven, Connecticut Holiday Inn bar and acknowledge, “Yes, this is a very good football team. I’m not crazy.”

Some thoughts…

• I hated Matt Forte staying in the game to get a hundred yards. I understand it matters to these guys but Forte is an essential member of this offense, coming off a semi-serious injury, staring down fourteen days off. Were those 100 yards really worth a potential injury? And why was Cutler handing him the football at that point? I had no audio for the game so maybe this was explained?
• Another solid effort from J’Marcus Webb at left tackle. As this season is progressing I could make a detailed argument that Webb has been a better tackle than Gabe Carimi. Carimi has to stop committing terrible penalties.
• The Bears defensive line was inconsistent Sunday but once they get unleashed with a lead I don’t think there’s an offensive line in the NFL that will hold them back. I thought Corey Wootton’s sack/fumble was the most significant play of the game Sunday.
• There were a few moments Sunday where watching Brian Urlacher attempt to track Maurice Jones-Drew to the sideline made me sad. I thought the Jags would attack Urlacher and they did, over and over, throughout the first half. He simply lost his speed.
• Lance Briggs found it.
• I hope some Bears fans are now understanding what I love about Justin Blackmon. He is a special talent.
• Nice to have a player as talented as Michael Bush coming off the bench, huh? I knew Bush was a big, bruising back but I didn’t expect him to be a weapon in the passing game.
• I think the Bears should retire the slant because I’d guess Jay Cutler throws 60% of his interceptions on poorly executed slants. Jay seems uncomfortable throwing them. The receivers seem uncomfortable running them. The whole thing looks like a circus. So just retire the play.
• The Bears secondary STILL needs to clean-up the go route execution. It seems every week – Gibson, Bryant, Shorts – some receiver is running free over the top. The Bears better clear it up in the next two weeks because Stafford/Johnson will test them repeatedly in primetime at Soldier Field.
• Nobody seemed to take more ridiculous criticism this summer than Peanut Tillman. Folks decided a meaningless game in the Meadowlands was reason enough to cut the guy. Tillman has been in the shadow of Tim Jennings for the early part of the year but now has essentially hit game-winning homers in back to back weeks. Good to see.
• Hey, Muhsin Muhammad! I guess Chicago is not where receivers go to die. I guess it’s just where a shitty receiver like you went to steal McCaskey money. Alshon Jeffery is going to be very good for a very long time.
• I want Earl Bennett to come back because I just don’t trust Kellen Davis to be able to catch the ball. Tight end has to be a focus for Phil Emery in April.
• 12 catches. 144 yards. 1 touchdown. Wow, Brandon Marshall. You need to not get hurt.

4-1 into the bye is better than I expected and the teams, as a whole, looks better than I expected. We’ll spend the next 48 hours wrapping up the first five games and find a fun way to pass time over the next long, boring week.

We’re up a little early today as I’m in New Haven, Connecticut and won’t be getting to a computer before the game. Here are my final three points:

• This is a match-up of the league’s worst offense and one of the league’s best defenses. The only reason the Bears lose today is if they turn the ball over. Repeatedly.
• I was in the building the last time the Bears played the Jags and it’s one of the weirdest fan bases in the league. They literally cheer first downs with plastic chains and  a “Move the Chains” thing they yell. It’s comical and they don’t seem to like football much. Must be the weakest home field advantage in the sport and I’d expect 15,000 Bears fans to be in attendance. (My brother reports from Jax that the building will have more available seats that normal due to an influx of Chicago’s finest fans.)
•  Who will be the stud defensive lineman this week? It was Paea against the Rams. Melton against the Cowboys. I say this is Shea McClellin’s afternoon.

Bear down.

Two personal announcements:

First, our love to Murph and his wife as they suffer through some difficult medical issues. I got to meet Murph at the Draft Party in April and it was one of my highlights of the night. He’s a great guy and I hope they pull through this.

Second, our love to my dear friend Margot Reilly Campbell and her new husband, actor and Chicago Bears diehard Christopher Denham. I love them both and I’m proud to be part of their ceremony Saturday as a, you guessed it, Bridesman. No new post on tomorrow. Game thread will be up early Sunday.

_______________________________________

THIS IS THE FINAL OPPORTUNITY YOU’LL HAVE TO MAKE YOUR FIRST PICK. ANYONE WHO HAS NOT MADE A PICK IN THE PICKS CONTEST BY SUNDAY WILL BE INELIGIBLE TO WIN THE PRIZE.

The Prize Reminder.

You’ll be invited as special guest of DaBearsBlog to this year’s Round One Draft Party on Thursday night, April 25th at Cortland’s Garage in Bucktown. The prize includes:

• Accommodation for draft night at The Willows Hotel, Lakeview. To see the hotel, CLICK HERE. I’ll also be in the hotel and will gladly take you for a drink at the local spot Monsignor Murphy’s if you so choose.
• DaBearsBlog will cover the open bar for you and a +1 at the event.
• $50 gift certificate for you/wife/husband/family to any of the Lou Malnati’s locations across the Chicagoland area.
• Two automatic entries into the ticket contest giveaway that evening. (We’ll announce the particular game and details once the schedule is released next spring.)
• A pair of 2012 DaBearsBlog tee-shirts.

The Week’s Lines.

Remember:

• You only pick one team against the spread.
• Once you select the team they are unavailable to you for the remainder of the season.
• It is NOT a survival pool. The highest winning percentage at Week 15 will be awarded the prize. If there are ties, we’ll decide in Weeks 16 and 17 by increasing the number of games selected incrementally.
• You don’t need to pick every week. But you must make ten selections between Week One and Week Fifteen. If you picked in Week One you do not need to pick in Week Two if you don’t like the games.
• DO NOT MAKE YOUR SELECTION IN THE BODY OF ANOTHER COMMENT. YOUR SELECTION SHOULD BE IT’S OWN COMMENT AND CONTAIN ONLY THE NAME OF THE TEAM YOU ARE SELECTING. (Otherwise it’s a terrible bitch for me to tally up each week.)
• Picks are due by kickoff of the early games Sunday. Picks will only be accepted in the comments of THIS post.

(Home team in CAPS)

Atlanta -3 WASHINGTON

PITTSBURGH -3 Philadelphia

Green Bay -7 INDIANAPOLIS

NEW YORK GIANTS -8.5 Cleveland

MINNESOTA -5.5 Tennessee

CINCINNATI -3 Miami

Baltimore -6 KANSAS CITY

CAROLINA -3 Seattle

Chicago -4.5 JACKSONVILLE

NEW ENGLAND -6.5 Denver

SAN FRANCISCO -9.5 Buffalo

NEW ORLEANS -4 San Diego

My pick: none. I don’t like the board this week so I’m staying away.

The Bears have a brilliant opportunity to enter the bye at 4-1 and set the stage for a big season. They can’t lose Sunday and they won’t.

WHY DO I LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS THIS WEEK?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.

THE OPPONENT: STATISTICS OF NOTE

• Jacksonville has the league’s worst offense in terms of yardage gained and the second-worst offense in terms of points scored.
• They have the 26th ranked defense in terms of yardage allowed and the 21st in terms of points allowed.
• Even on an offense that bad, the great Maurice Jones-Drew is averaging 4.9 yards a carry.
• Jeremy Mincey (above), a defensive end the Bears tried to acquire this off-season, has been held without a sack through four games.

THE ANALYSIS

• This is an opponent tailor made for the Bears. They have registered only two quarterback sacks on the year while surrendering twelve. If Mel Tucker has to be creative (blitzes) to try and hit Cutler, he’ll end up leaving the middle of the field wide open.
• I see one flaw in the Bears defense: guarding the slot receiver on the go (9) routes. Chris Conte seems a bit slow to the ball and both Gibson (Rams) and Bryant (Cowboys) exploited the Bears secondary from that position.
• After giving MJD only 13 carries against the Bengals last week, head coach Mike Mularkey expressed regret. I expect 25-30 for the back.
• If you read this site regularly you know how big a fan I am of Justin Blackmon. I think he can be one of the best receivers in the sport and his physicality will be a challenge for Jennings, Tillman or whomever is lined up across from him.
• Blaine Gabbert is a dump off machine, especially to MJD, Greg Jones and tight end Marcedes Lewis. Mularkey’s offenses want to dink and dunk you to death and I don’t see that approach working against this ferocious Bears defense.
• I expect their performance in Dallas will give the Bears offensive line a tremendous confidence boost. That especially goes for J’Marcus Webb, who looked technically sound Monday night. I expect protection to be solid this week.
• And when protection is solid I think the Bears can throw the ball on anybody in the league. I think the Bears will do just enough in the run game to keep the Jaguars safeties honest and attack them successfully on the outside. I think this passing game is going to look its best Sunday.

SURVIVE/THRIVE

• Survive: Brian Urlacher. I wrote about it Wednesday. You can read that piece by CLICKING HERE.
• Thrive: Brandon Marshall. I choose to believe Marshall’s Monday night outing was a coming out party and he’ll salivate at the site of AJ Green shredding the Jaguars secondary. I expect Marshall to dominate.

BOLD STATISTICAL PREDICTIONS

• Maurice Jones-Drew will be held to 77 yards rushing.
• Adam Podlesh will average over 46 yards per punt against his former franchise.
• The average starting field position for the Jaguars will be their own 17 yard line.

RESULT

If the Bears had a tough game next week I would subscribe to the trap game theory. But knowing they have a week off will allow the Jaguars to hold their focus. I just can’t see the Jags scoring very much on what is currently the best defense in the league.

Chicago Bears 30, Jacksonville Jaguars 10