As things are beginning to shake out around the NFL and teams are the free agency period is approaching with rapidity, it is time for me to start guessing. That’s all this time of year is for football writers, after all. None of us know which team is going to cut which player. None of us know which prospect has become the apple of which team’s eye. And then there’s the bloody franchise tag making the whole system even more unpredictable. So here are four guesses, mixed with criticisms, opinions and erroneous conjecture.

• Tackling the wide receiver is a tricky proposition but it is actually rather easy this offseason. If Phil Emery can’t orchestrate the near-impossible trade for Brandon Marshall, there are four WRs on the market with 80-100 catch potential: Vincent Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colston and Stevie Johnson. Jackson possesses the combination of speed and size Cutler covets on the outside and he’s spent his career playing with an enigmatic quarterback in a dynamic offense. The Bears could then use their first round draft pick to take either Kendall Wright from Baylor or Michael Floyd of Notre Dame (both projected to be available) and find themselves with an entirely rebuilt receiving corps heading into 2012.
• I think it’s time for the Bears to put more value on the cornerback position. For years we’ve heard that corner in the Lovie system is valued less than around the rest of the league because it is far more reliant on sound tackling and discipline than on excellent cover skills. But the league has changed and teams are now moving to almost exclusive passing attacks. With what might be the deepest FA cornerback field in a generation, I’d like to see Emery add some physicality on the outside. Cortland Finegan would do that. So would Brent Grimes if he becomes available. Brandon Carr, Carlos Rogers and the Terrell Thomas (coming off a bad injury in 2011 for the Giants) would all be improvements to the Bears secondary.
• The more days goes by the less likely I believe the Bears will be interested in a premier defensive end on the FA market. Those guys cost a boatload of money and defensive end is fourth or fifth on the Bears’ needs chart. Mario Williams will require not only a lot of years but a lot of money. It will be interesting to see if the Bears become players for Robert Mathis or Osi Umenyiora – two elite, pass rushing veterans who might require a less-lengthy commitment.
• Let’s not forget backup quarterback. Right now Peyton Manning is clouding the issue. When he lands somewhere the dominoes will begin to fall. But it seems two players will be available next month: Kyle Orton and Jason Campbell. Both would provide the Bears with experience and poise behind Jay Cutler. Both would have led the 2011 Bears to the postseason after Cutty broke his thumb.

You’ll notice I’ve left the offensive line out of the mix. Why? Because I believe Mike Tice will convince Phil Emery he can win with Webb, Williams, Garza, Spencer, Louis and Carimi. And I believe those will be the guys playing offensive line for the Bears this year.

We’ve spent enough time documenting the complicated off-season currently facing new Bears GM Phil Emery. Emery has to do the following before the start of the 2012 season:

• Find those few players (WR, OL, DE) to elevate the Bears, 7-3 with a healthy QB, to a legitimate Super Bowl contender. (Although I’m not sure they were not already a legitimate contender.)
• Rebuild roster depth that has been lacking due to several years of mediocre (or below) drafting.

Emery’s first job, however, is analyzing the players currently on the Bears roster. Which of those men is currently untouchable? Because the word untouchable might have varying degrees of meaning, I’ll rephrase it this way: Which players on the Bears roster would you not include in a trade for Brandon Marshall?

The Untouchable: Jay Cutler. Cutty is the going to be the Bears franchise quarterback for the next five-plus years and the club realized in 2010 just how far he can carry them without a single great player on his offensive line or in his receiving corps. He’s the real deal and he can bring this city a championship.

The Aging Superstar: Julius Peppers. If the Bears were to trade Peppers they would see their defense decline more rapidly than they care to imagine. Peppers may not have the sack numbers of the other premiere defensive ends in the game but his versatility and play against the run continue to make him one of the elite defenders in the game. He’s got three solid years left.

The System Man: Brian Urlacher. Urlacher is the prototypical middle linebacker for the Lovie Smith system and dealing him now would be to castrate the head coach before he’s able to jump into bed. If Lovie were no longer the head coach and Marshall could be acquired for Urlacher I would consider the deal awfully hard to pass up.

The Spinal Cord: Matt Forte. I have never been as high on Forte as most, thinking he lacks the breakaway speed and explosiveness needed to be a top tier back in the current NFL. But having watched Marion Barber moron a game away and Kahlil Bell fumble half his touches I am coming to terms with the fact that without the Forte as this offensive organism’s spinal cord, the organism cannot stand. I expect Forte to be signed to a long-term deal in the not so distant future.

The Great Debate: Lance Briggs. Will the regime change lead to a softening of the Lance Briggs’ heart or will one of the best linebackers in the game continue to bicker and moan each summer that he’s underpaid? Will Phil Emery believe his talents outweigh the PR negativity? If Briggs could be dealt in the coming months for Marshall, how would you feel? I admit I’ m torn on the question but I’m leaning towards the Bears needing Marshall more than Briggs. Especially as playing great run defense becomes a secondary need in the modern NFL.

The Up-and-Coming Star: Henry Melton. Melton had 7.5 sacks in 2011, tied for the NFL’s lead among defensive tackles. In the post-Tommie Harris era the Bears have eagerly sought a Sapp-like talent to disrupt the middle of opposing offensive lines and pressure the pocket. Melton has emerged to fill that role in only his second season. Will he take the step to elite player in his third year? Would you be willing to risk his future should a team ask for him in return for a big-time receiver?

The Bears exhausted as many options as they could in and around the NFL but ended up “settling” for the right man to coach their quarterback and coordinate their passing game: Jeremy Bates.

For those that will point to Bates’ tenure as offensive coordinator in Seattle as a negative I say the following: who cares? Bates will not be coordinating the Bears offense. He will not be charged with installing an offensive game plan each week or with orchestrating halftime adjustments in the locker room. His job will be simply to tailor to the passing game to the strengths of his friend and former pupil Jay Cutler. His job will be ever more simply to make Jay Cutler happy.

This was the smart move.  For those in the media who once again wrongly wrote that Cutler and Bates were not as close as reported, time to check your sources. For those who yelped about Tice and Bates not being able to co-exist, time to check your information. Cutler has his man and the quarterback has taken another power step with the Chicago Bears franchise.

I was sitting on a bench in front of a coffee shop in the beautiful beach town of Spring Lake, New Jersey, waiting for the NJ Transit Coast Line train back to Manhattan last summer. A slick-haired douche pulled up in some way-too-big car and, after getting his coffee inside, started chatting me up as if my wearing jeans in the summertime was a means to conceal a .45 in the waistband. He asked where I was from and I answered politely, “Kearny.”

He seemed impressed. “Tough town,” he responded. That sort of sums up where I come from. A tough town sorta halfway between Newark and Jersey City. That is where I became a Bears fan between the ages of 3 and 4. In the shadow of New York City, and with the Meadowlands visible out my bedroom window, I chose the Chicago Bears because they made a music video. A video I make my friends watch every Super Bowl Sunday for a song whose record I have framed on my bookshelf. If I hadn’t made that choice I would currently be celebrating the fourth Super Bowl title of my lifetime with the New York Giants. But I made that choice and have not regretted for one minute since. It has not only given me my purest sports passion but it has also given me my second geographical home: the great city of Chicago.

Following the Bears in New Jersey in the pre-internet, pre-Sunday Ticket era was an occupation. The Jersey Sports Cafe in Rutherford had a few of those big satellites on the roof and they had a small contingent of Bears fans there each Sunday (including a buddy’s Dad) but convincing my own father to take his eight year-old son to a bar on Sunday proved futile week-in and week-out.

I followed the Bears in three ways when they were not on national television. (1) Since my family had Jets season tickets, I would often attend the games in my Jim McMahon or Tom Waddle jersey and watch the Bears scores update on the big board. Other folks in Section 324 enjoyed it so much it became the Soldier Field Annex. (2) I would be in the living room while my Dad watched the Giants or my brother watched the Jets and once I heard the little jingle that announced scores would scroll at the bottom of the screen I would jump to my feet. Bears 14, Niner 10. Yes! (3) I would sit eagerly in anticipation of ESPN’s Primetime, the greatest show ever produced by the four letters.

I knew nothing of Chicago’s media. Knew nothing of their newspapermen or radio hosts. Knew nothing of the approach those fellas took to the team I loved. I knew only the approach the local media took to the Giants and Jets. My formative sport fan years were spent in the company of the nation’s best sportswriting/broadcasting talents.

Mike & the Mad Dog, WFAN’s industry-changing pair, became part of our lives. When you played Wiffle ball in the driveway or street football there was a always a radio nearby playing Francesa and Russo. Opinions were shaped by Mike and Dog. Debates were formed and furthered by them too. You didn’t have to agree with their often insane opinions to understand they had shaped the language you used to discuss sports. The Newark Star-Ledger had Jerry Izenberg – one of the greatest sportswriters who ever lived. Izenberg could make a failed Vince Coleman bunt attempt read with the power of a Shakespearean tragedy. Dave Anderson in the New York Times was, like Izenberg, one of those sportswriters who seemed to come from a different time. Every one of his columns was delivered with a literary gravitas but one always got the sense he wished he were ringside at the Garden in 1962. The Daily News‘ Mike Lupica could see beyond the game. The player’s face as he stood beside his locker. The Yankee Stadium janitor hiding tears underneath his worn ball cap. These guys were and are the best in the world. And they were all available for a less than a buck up at the corner deli.

Then DirecTV and the Sunday Ticket emerged in the mid-90s and were a sure thing in taverns everywhere by 2000. The internet came too and came hard, making available the full content of the Tribune and Sun-Times. It did not take long for me to realize the men writing columns for those newspapers were not watching the same games I was watching. It did not take long for me to realize there was a pervading sense of negativity in the newspaper each day. Every move was wrong, even when it worked. Every loss was symptomatic of organizational disarray and had nothing to do with missed field goals or dropped touchdown passes. Every win was lucky. Bill Gleason was being replaced on the importance scale by the likes of Jay Mariotti and Rick Telander. These were not men concerned with capturing a sporting event from a unique perspective or with any semblance of passion. These were men concerned with instigating a disappointed populous by praying upon a seemingly inborn negativity.

There are still bad columnists working in Chicago, of course. David Haugh’s opinions are as bland and lifeless as his prose. Rick Morrissey actually graces the pages of the Sun-Times with these kinds of sentences (about Phil Emery), “If somebody had asked him about the life of a hermit, he would have said it takes a village to raise a recluse.” Deadspin went out of their way to attack Telander’s work of Herculean inanityon Cutler’s non-winning sensibility with the brilliant headline, “Jay Cutler Is Not a Winner Because He Doesn’t Smile at Bears Employees, Writes Crazy Person.”

Steve Rosenbloom is the worst. In my two decades of reading sports writers from around the country I have never encountered a man quite like him. His writing is atrocious; a mixture of failed humor attempts and sarcastic jabs at the local teams. His opinions are pointless and predictable. His moment-to-moment reactions to Bears games on his blog actually reveal how little he understands the game he’s covering. Rosenbloom is not competing with the best sports columnists in the country. Rosenbloom is competing with the drunkest guy at the end of the bar and the loudest teenage brat on Twitter.

Today is the first day of the 2012 NFL season. And DaBearsBlog will no longer validate the existence of these men on its pages. Brad Biggs, Sean Jensen and the boys over at ESPN Chicago are the real deal. We’ll celebrate their work and rely on their information. But no longer will I be using the columnists as a springboard for my columns. No longer will links to Rosenbloom or Haugh or Telander appear here. The Chicago Bears are one of the greatest franchises in the history of sports and the Chicago Bears fan deserves better.

Can I be the one to provide it? I hope, from an opinion perspective, I am part of a solution . I know, from an editorial perspective, ignoring the current crop of columnists is a definitive step in the right direction for the emotional and intellectual sanity of us all.

If you haven’t gotten your pizza contest selection in yet, you must do so by kickoff on the previous thread. Selections will not be accepted on this thread.

GAME PREDICTION

I’ve noticed a great many of our readers on the blog have no interest in this Super Bowl and that seems odd to me. We’d all prefer the Bears be in every Super Bowl but they’re not. Still, the Packers are not in this Super Bowl either – even after a 15-1 season. The Lions are not in this Super Bowl. They were blown out in New Orleans. There is nothing particularly annoying or emotionally devastating about this game. On the contrary I can’t remember a Super Bowl with more story lines and more drama. I’m looking forward to the game.

And I like the Pats.

Yes I know the Patriots are going to have a hellish time defending the Giants passing attack. There’s nobody in their secondary capable of staying with Nicks, Cruz and Manningham. There’s also not enough talent in the Pats pass rush to disrupt Eli Manning’s pocket. Give Eli time and he’ll dice you up. This game could easily end 38-10 Giants.

But I’m going with intangibles. Belichick and Brady do not want to lose consecutive Super Bowls. Do not want to see their SB record drift closer to.500. Do not want to finish their respective tenures with the mark of not having been able to beat Coughlin and Eli. I’m taking one of the greatest coach/quarterback tandems in history on Sunday.

Patriots 30, Giants 28

THE LOU MALNATI’S PIZZA CONTEST

• Seven of us remain in the Fantasy Playoffs pizza contest.
• I am left with the Patriots offense, Giants defense and Patriots special teams. This essentially means that my offense and defense will nullify each other and I’ll be entirely reliant on the Pats specials.
• The tiebreakers are the following: (1) The combined quarterback rating of both Tom Brady and Eli Manning. This is Price is Right rules. You cannot go over. (2) The total number of Giants rushing yards. Price is Right rules.  (3) Total number of catches by members of the Patriots not named Gronkowski, Hernandez and Welker. Price is Right.
• My tiebreakers: 179.2, 63, 4

Contestants List

Jeff “Blogfather” Hughes

SidLuckman42

SC Dave

JimWoww

TheFifth

BigT

TheVoid

We continue with my top four questions heading into Super Bowl Sunday.

#4 What will Tom Brady’s approach to the Giant d-line be?

In 2007 and earlier this year Tom Brady was under duress from the fearsome Giants pass rush and one of the most prolific passing attacks in the game was relegated to the land of the ordinary. But this passing attack is a bit different for Brady. He relies on timing routes to his tight ends and slot man Wes Welker. I can’t imagine the Pats will pull a Mike Martz and drop Brady deep in the pocket repeatedly, subjecting him to the likes of Pierre-Paul, Tuck and Osi. Brady will have to hit the quick stuff outside and over the middle. He’ll have to go to the run from shotgun to keep the edge rushers honest. It is the only way he’ll be successful.

#3 Is Gronk healthy and can the Pats survive without his at %100?

If Rob Gronkowski can’t play Sunday I see no way for the Patriots to win this game. Aaron Hernandez is good but he’s far more wide receiver than tight end. Gronk positions himself at the end of the line, delivers punishment to rushers and then revolutionizes the tight end position by catching every ball thrown his way, being borderline impossible to tackle and scoring touchdowns at a clip we’ve never seen in the NFL previously. He is THE mismatch. Not only against the Giants but against the entire league. Without him the Pats will not be able to play the game that ushered them to a 13-3 year and may be looking at long evening in Indianapolis.

#2 How in God’s name can the Pats cover the Giants wide receivers?

They can’t. For two reasons: (1) the Giants wide receivers are as good as there are in football and (2) the Pats secondary is crappy. I talked yesterday about the Pats living in the “big nickel” look, attempting to use quantity to compensate for their lacking in quality. But the truth is they’ll be forced to engage in a shootout unless Vince Wilfork and the great Mark Anderson can harass Eli Manning the way the brilliant Niners front seven did a few back in San Francisco. Without that pressure it could be a field day for Nicks, Cruz and Manningham. (Side note: I do wonder if Shaun Ellis will have something for this game.)

#1 What does this game REALLY mean to Belichick and Brady?

I usually don’t get concerned with intangibles when it comes to the Super Bowl because rarely do they have any influence on the outcome of the contest. But Bill Belichick is one of the greatest football coaches that has ever lived. Tom Brady is one of the greatest quarterbacks that has ever lived. And four years ago they were on the precipice of a perfect season. If they beat the Giants that night in Arizona, they’d each have that elusive fourth Super Bowl and solid arguments could be made that each belong historically at the very top their craft. They did not win that game. And earlier this season they lost to Coughlin and Eli once again.

This game has to mean more to them than any other they’ve played together. It has to. If they win they’ll have their redemption, four years later, with an inferior roster. If they win it they’ll each have that fourth Super Bowl and their immortality. If they lose their legacy will be marred by their inability to beat Coughlin and Eli. Their brilliant run together over this past decade will be marked with an impressive (but not legendary) 3-2 record in the biggest game of all. For mortals that record would be more than sufficient. For Belichick and Brady it can’t be.

NOTE: PREDICTION FOR THE GAME IS COMING TOMORROW AS WE’LL ALSO START ACCEPTING CONTEST ENTRIES FOR THE FINAL ROUND OF THE PIZZA CONTEST.

I can’t get too pumped up about the hiring of a QB coach/passing coordinator. This offense is going to run the ball and then use play action to get Jay into space and let him fling the ball down the field. I also don’t want to restart the “should we pay Forte” debate. Forte will be a Bear in 2012. He’ll either be on a long-term contract or he’ll be making more than $8 million. Either way, he’ll be just fine.

The Super Bowl is coming and it should be paid the proper deference. Here is volume one of seven questions I have heading into Sunday as the NFL prepares to crown another champion that is not the Chicago Bears. (They are listed in declining order of importance.)

#7 Will either side make a play on special teams?

The Giants are only in Indianapolis because Niners backup kick returner Kyle Williams played one of the dumbest games a return man has ever played in a big spot. We often spend the two weeks leading up the The Big Game dissecting the x’s and o’s on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball but one muffed punt return or a well-timed onside kick or a return TD could dramatically alter the outcome. Neither of these teams has excellent specials so might one group surprise?

#6 Will short yardage failure/success make a big difference?

There are two teams playing Sunday. One has a running back bigger than most linebackers with a history of running over defensive backs on Sportscenter. The other has a quarterback who impregnated a super model and dumped her for another super model. Now if you had to guess which is the better team in short yardage, whom would you select? Brandon Jacobs has struggled so mightily in short yardage that Giants fans litter talk radio with calls for Ahmad Bradshaw in those situations. No quarterback in the history of football has been more effective as executing the quarterback sneak than Tom Brady. (Many note that it’s Brady’s ability to read how defenders line up that makes him so effective.) Their last Super Bowl meeting came down to a man avoiding a sack by half a foot and throwing a jump ball subsequently caught on the helmet of a teammate. Which inches will decide this encounter?

#5 When defenses go into nickel, who’ll run the ball better?

Mike Francesa on WFAN in New York has done a nice job drawing the parallel between this matchup and the Giants matchup with the Buffalo Bills following the 1990 season. In that game NYG defensive coordinator Bill Belichick spent most the contest in a “big nickel” look and dared the high-flying Jim Kelly Bills to run the ball. They did, quite effectively, but the Giants were able to avoid the big play that defined the Bills that year and dictate the terms of play. The 2011 Giants are statistically the best big play offense in the game and it would be surprising if Belichick did not employ a similar tactic.

The Giants have no choice. When the opposing offense is prolific with minimal use of the wideout, a defense is forced to use linebackers and safeties to concentrate on slot receivers and tight ends. The G-men know they can get pressure with just their front four so they’ll try and create confusing looks in the secondary for Brady. If the Pats go to the run, can they find success over the duration of four quarters?

The top four will arrive by Thursday morning…

Here are my reactions to Phil Emery’s introductory press conference at Halas Hall:

• Reverend said it to me (we spent presser on IM) and he was right. Emery was far more comfortable responding to questions from reporters than he was delivering his prepared statement. It took Emery some time to get through the emotion of the moment, I think.
• It was very evident that the awkwardness Jerry often displayed with the media will no longer be visible from the Bears GM. Emery basically told the press he won’t tell them anything and called out a reporter for forcing two question into a one question slot. I dig it. This media needs to be slapped and Emery seems like a guy ready to do some slapping.
• Emery seems like a tough boss. The guy who walks into your office and says, “You need to be better” and it hurts you profoundly to hear it.
• It sure sounded like Phil Emery intends to sign Matt Forte to a long-term deal.
• I don’t have a counter here but I’d bet he said “playmaker” 20 times. Take from that what you will but I think he was sending a clear message about getting Jay Cutler some weapons.
• Ted Phillips said he was looking for a GM to build the Bears through the draft and Emery made it clear the draft is going to be the focal point of the front office.
• Jerry Angelo often said strange things but reports were rampant that Angelo disregarded the opinions of scouts and relied on his own experience on draft day. Emery made it clear he is going to trust his men in the field.
• My favorite quote. “This is a big man’s game”
• Emery is going to build a scouting department that mirrors the Pats’ scouting department. Let’s hope they are as productive as the Pats scouts used to be.
• Emery is clearly most heavily influenced by his time at the Naval Academy. He mentioned all the GMs he’s worked with a few times but almost waxes poetic when he gets into his time at Navy.
• Bears fans will love this sentence: “I’m a very different person than Jerry”. When asked about whether his hiring is a sign of status quo at Halas Hall, Emery went out of his way to point out the differences between himself and Jerry Angelo.
• A couple writers kept trying to press Emery on the question of control, asking if he had full control. He handled the question with class by acknowledging his DOES have full control but repeating, “that’s now where my heads at.”

I liked the Phil Emery I saw in this press conference. He’s not a comic. He’s not Spalding Gray. He is a tough guy, a leader, organized and methodical. I’m excited to see what he does this spring.

The Chicago Bears will introduce their fifth GM in organizational history, Phil Emery, at a 2 PM CT press conference. I don’t expect Emery to go into much detail regarding a future plan but it’ll be interesting to gauge his initial dealings with the beloved Chicago sports media. (Including Brad Biggs, pictured above.)

You can watch the press conference live on ChicagoBears.com by CLICKING HERE.

You can listen to the press conference live on ESPN Radio Chicago by CLICKING HERE.