All times ET. Home team in CAPS.

Saturday 4:30 PM – Texans at RAVENS (-9)

A battle wages

in the land of McNulty.

The game is the game.

Saturday 8:15 PM – Packers at NINERS (-9.5)

Cover your damn eyes.

Green Bay can beat ANYONE.

They will keep this close.

Sunday 3:00 PM – Bucs at LIONS (-6)

One city makes cars.

One city is all strip clubs.

Baker be dancin’.

Sunday 6:30 PM – Chiefs at BILLS (-3)

My head says Mahomes.

But my heart is in New York,

drenched in Elmo’s sauce.

Last week the picks were 2-4 but in fairness I picked the Steelers expecting them to cover in a blizzard. This week I’m on Baltimore -9, Packers +9.5, Bucs +6, Bills -3.

All times are ET. Home team in CAPS.

Saturday 4:30 PM – HOUSTON v. Cleveland (-2.5)

His name is Flacco.

No, not the Manhattan owl.

But still the man soars.

Saturday 8:00 PM – KANSAS CITY (-4.5) v. Miami

It will be frigid,

projected at six below.

Too bleak for Flipper.

Sunday 1:00 PM – BUFFALO (-10) v. Pittsburgh

It’s the Bar Bill wings,

versus Primanti Brothers.

Dip this win in blue.

Sunday 4:30 PM – DALLAS (-7.5) v. Green Bay

America’s team.

A nation’s eyes upon them.

Will they hold up? Yes.

Sunday 8:15 PM – DETROIT (-3) v. Los Angeles

Jared was a Ram.

And Matthew was a Lion.

The latter moves on.

Monday 8:00 PM – TAMPA BAY v. Philadelphia (-3)

The home team is bad,

and the road team might be worse.

Someone has to win.

The Picks: Cleveland -2.5, Kansas City -4.5, Pittsburgh +10, Dallas -7.5, Los Angeles +3.5, Philly -3 (but I won’t be betting the last one).

Ultimately, I went 7-5 on Wildcard Weekend, completely whiffing on Cowboys/Bucs to finish. (Each of Brett Maher’s FOUR missed extra points kept the game from hitting the over.) Now we enter the NFL’s best weekend, and the league has served us four terrific games. The goal is simply to stay above .500 the rest of the way.

This week’s three-bullet approach will be a point on each team and a score prediction. Again, my picks against the spread and the total are in the final score predictions. All numbers from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jaguars at Chiefs (-8.5), Over/Under 53

• There is nothing particularly interesting about the Chiefs. We saw this story in New England for decades. When you have the best coach and quarterback at the same time, you’ll find yourself in just about every conference title game. The Reid/Mahomes Chiefs have reached a point where they don’t play an important game until late January.
• The Jags did not look good in their regular season finale, and that carried over into Los Angeles. Fun comeback, sure, but felt more like a Chargers collapse than a Jaguars creation. (Still mind blowing that the scapegoat for that loss has been the LA offensive staff and not the head coach.)
• Chiefs 40, Jaguars 27

Giants at Eagles (-7.5), Over/Under 48

• Which quarterback is going to have more success on the ground. Jalen Hurts averaged 4.6 yards per carry this season. Daniel Jones averaged 5.9. Giants’ receivers won’t be as wide open against this secondary, and Jones won’t have hours in the pocket against this pass rush. If Jones isn’t moving the chains with his legs, the Giants will be chasing this game.
• There are 2006 Chicago Bears vibes with this 2022 Eagles team. Nobody believed that Bears team was capable of making it to the Super Bowl, even though they’d been the best team in the conference the entire season. The Eagles are quite simply the far better team here. Theyll find a way.
• Eagles 27, Giants 20

Bengals at Bills (-5), Over/Under 48.5

• Who the hell knows? Honestly, how is this spread five points? There is very little discernible difference between these two clubs, so the small advantage goes to Buffalo’s home field. (But they were home last weekend and looked about as sloppy as they have all year.)
• If you’re looking for a Bengals advantage, it is turnovers. Bengals were +6 on the season and used a shocking turnover to advance from the first round. Bills broke even with turnover differential during the season and tried everything they could to fumble and drop their playoff opener. My brain tells me this is a budding upset. But…
• Bills 33, Bengals 30

Read More …

This is less a gambling guide, and more an overview of the weekend’s action with predictions. But my gambling choices are evident in my final score prognostications. (All lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.)

Seahawks at 49ers (-9.5), Over/Under: 42.5

• Just as we all predicted in August, the 2022 season could be decided by Brock Purdy’s performance in the postseason. Purdy was a player I liked in the draft, precisely because I watched him play football and not run around in his underwear in Indianapolis. He was a gamer at Iowa State, and those types of guys tend to find a role in the NFL.
• Seattle is playing with house money and teams in that position are always dangerous. This feels like a game that is 13-13 early in the second quarter, and gamblers start getting nervous, only to see it completely unravel for the Seahawks after a costly turnover or two.
• 49ers 34, Seahawks 16

Chargers (-2) at Jaguars, Over/Under: 47.5

• This was the predictable Saturday night contest, but if the league had some leadership, they would have put it in the premier Sunday night slot and marketed the hell out of these two young superstar QBs. Instead, the game of the weekend will be played in the least-watched time slot.
• This game feels incredibly even, and when that’s the case I look at three essential elements: quarterback, coach and building. Quarterback is a push right now, and the home field in Jacksonville isn’t much of one. But this is the most significant coaching mismatch of the week. Doug Pederson is a big game guy and Brandon Staley has absolutely no in-game feel. The latter will make a head-scratching decision (he always does) to decide this contest.
• Jaguars 27, Chargers 23

Dolphins at Bills (-13.5), Over/Under: 47

• Was it the Dolphins? Was it the league? Was it his family? It’s not important. Tua Tagovailoa is not playing in this ballgame and that is important for the long-term health of the young man’s brain. Tua will now have the next seven months to establish whether he wants to assume the risk of continuing his football career. One hopes that he’ll visit with serious neurologists during that time, doctors unaffiliated with the league.
• Without Tua, this is a serious mismatch.
• Bills 40, Dolphins 17

Read More …

Everyone loves the Buffalo Bills. Everyone. And quite frankly, that scares me. The NFL has become so unpredictable that it’s hard to imagine an overwhelming favorite making it all the way to the final Sunday and winning an expected title. But in order to get the Bills out of the Super Bowl, I need to find another team.

The Jets aren’t ready.

The Patriots don’t have the firepower.

The Dolphins worry me but it’s a big ask for a first-year coach.

The AFC South stinks.

The Bengals went to the Super Bowl last year. So why are the Ravens favored to win the division? (Vegas always knows something. Also, is “Vegas” even a thing anymore? Why aren’t the lines set in NJ or NYC?)

The whole AFC West is explosive, but it just feels like they’re going to beat the hell out of each other. That means the top seed is unlikely to come from the left coast and the top seed feels essential for those teams hoping to avoid the playoffs going through Buffalo.

The Buffalo Bills don’t have a major flaw on their roster, assuming Tre White eventually returns healthy, and in Josh Allen, they have the best player in the sport. If Von Miller can provide the prowess on the edge they’ll need in December and January, they will coast to an easy AFC East title and find themselves in Glendale playing for it all.

So, who wins the NFC?

I have no idea.

Am I taking the Packers again? No. Not with those receivers and not with the quarterback’s postseason record. (He’s one of the best regular season quarterbacks of all time but he’s a mediocrity in the tournament.)

I don’t trust Stafford’s health. I don’t trust Brady’s commitment. I don’t think Trey Lance is going to take a team to the title game in his first year as a starter. (And the Jimmy G re-signing strikes me as quite odd.) Who the hell else is there? Philly? Dallas? New Orleans? Nope. Nope. Nope.

I have zero conviction. And when you have no conviction, you just assume Tom Brady will do something ridiculous and overcome whatever he needs to overcome.

Super Bowl 57 Final Score

Buffalo Bills 30, Tampa Bay Bucs 23