There seems to be a prevailing consensus among Chicago fans that the Bears still have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Unfortunately, there is no reason to believe that is true.

The Bears had a great defense in 2018, but that was 3 years ago, an eternity in the NFL. They led the NFL in pretty much every defensive stat imaginable that season, but we’ll track their decline since then with a simple one: points allowed.

• 2018: 17.7 points/game, 1st in NFL
• 2019: 18.6 points/game, 4th in NFL
• 2020: 23.1 points/game, 14th in the NFL

That’s right, Chicago’s defense was more average than good in 2020 (with 32 NFL teams, 16th is exactly average). That feels weird to say, right? I know I certainly didn’t think of them that way last year. But a broader look at the statistics paints exactly that picture, as you can see in the table below. DVOA is a measure of total defensive performance from Football Outsiders, and net yards/attempt (which factors in sacks and pass attempts) is from Pro Football Reference.

The only major stat where the defense ranked in the top ten was yards/run allowed. Everywhere else was mostly middle of the pack besides forcing turnovers, which they were bad at.

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The journey continues…

Safety

This is probably the weakest position on the roster right now.

Eddie Jackson clearly regressed last season, though that could be as much to do with scheme with a coordinator who was hell bent on using him like a player he isn’t. The Bears have banked on Jackson being good enough to make whoever is next to him useful for the last two seasons — but that didn’t work last year.

The Bears could add a minimum-level free agent like they did in 2019 with HaHa Clinton-Dix and 2020 with Tashaun Gipson, but there might also be value in spending an actual asset to getting Jackson a terrific running mate.

The only good option in the first round appears to be Trevon Moehrig from TCU, widely considered a top-25 player. They could also look at Jevon Holland or Andre Cisco in the second or third rounds.

It could be interesting to see what kind of player the Bears want next to Jackson. They have prioritized having interchangeable safeties, but it’s inarguable that they miss the physical presence Adrian Amos provided in 2018, even if he lacked in coverage. With both cornerback and safety, it’s worth wondering if the Bears are going to try kicking the can down the road for a year in order to try to improve the offense.

Wide Receiver

Reports that the Bears have tried to trade Anthony Miller and sign Kenny Golladay make this an interesting position.

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If the Chicago Bears are unable to secure a trade up for one of the five best quarterbacks in the 2021 NFL Draft, they still should be able to get a quality player.

Should five quarterbacks go in the top 20, that will push the rest of the skill position players down. And this draft is (supposedly) rich in areas the Bears could use upgrades.

Here is a quick look at some of the positions the Bears could look to fill early in the draft and the players who could fill them.

Offensive Tackle

We can feel confident that the Bears see a need here based on the reports that they were going after Trent Williams. Williams re-signed a huge deal with the 49ers and there was never a thought that he would come cheap, so the Bears were clearly — if the reports were remotely true — willing to shell out a large sum of money for this position.

The Bears have an adequate left tackle in Charles Leno Jr. and Germaine Ifedi played well at right tackle last year. The pursuit of Williams tells us the Bears want to do better than adequate at left tackle.

This would be a good draft to revamp the tackle position. While five quarterbacks will surely go within the top 20 picks, along with a handful of defensive players, wide receivers and a tight end, the Bears could be looking at franchise tackle, so to speak.

The only tackle who is pretty much guaranteed to be drafted before the Bears choose is Penei Sewell — widely seen as one of the five best players in the draft. The Bears would probably love to get their hands on Christian Darrisaw from Virginia Tech or Rashawn Slater from Northwester. Slater is more likely as some teams won’t like his size and could project him as a guard or strictly right tackle.

Even if all three are gone, the Bears could grab a mauler in Teven Jenkins, though he might be strictly a right tackle.

Tackle is widely considered the deepest position in the draft, so the Bears could wait until the second round or later. A player like Standord’s Walker Little could be a great pick at 52 or they could grab Dillon Radunz from NDSU or Brady Christensen from BYU.

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There has been tremendous debate about Kyle Trask among scouting types. No one doubts his arm but his athleticism has called his future into question. From my perspective, he’s worth the risk any time after the first round. Here is analysis from the great Lance Zierlein at NFL.com:

Strengths

• Prototypical size to stand tall and fire from the pocket
• Made substantial production gains across the board in 2020.
• Enabled team to open up game plan in 2020.
• Became the first FBS quarterback in 15 years to post three or more TD passes in nine consecutive games.
• Stepped up against Alabama in SEC Championship Game.
• Able to pump and reset against baiting coverage.
• Feels edge pressure and climbs to free space in pocket.
• Gets back into passing platform when moving outside the pocket.
• Arm strength to whip field-side deep outs with no issues.
• Tardy safeties will find a willing challenger over the top.
• Talented downfield passer with touch and accuracy.
• Can attack one-on-ones and place deep throw where it needs to go.
• Fairly accurate even when feet are not set.

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During league meetings this week, NFL owners overwhelmingly approved the 17-game schedule.

But the landmark move did not come without opposition as Bears chairman George McCaskey voted against the measure.https://t.co/cYcc6hnT0X

— Chicago Tribune Sports (@ChicagoSports) April 1, 2021

This was apparently a near-unanimous vote. So the question becomes why didn’t George want that 17th game? Was he siding with the players? More to come…

Andy Dalton is a middle of the road quarterback.

Ryan Pace knows Dalton is a middle of the road quarterback.

Matt Nagy knows Dalton is a middle of the road quarterback.

George McCaskey and Ted Phillips know Dalton is a middle of the road quarterback.

And that is why none of these men can possibly believe Dalton is a pathway out of the mediocrity of the last two seasons. None of these men can possibly think Dalton – even replacing the ineptitude of “the former guy” – is the missing piece in a Super Bowl puzzle. And in the cases of Pace, Nagy and perhaps even Phillips, they can’t possibly imagine Dalton is worth risking their tenures within the organization.

To believe any of that nonsense would show that everyone in a position of authority at Halas Hall has lost their collective minds. And if that’s case, what hope do any of us have?

So we must believe Pace, Nagy, Phillips and McCaskey have not lost their minds. We must believe they understand the Bears must still solve the most important position in team sports. We must believe they know there are only two ways to inspire this fanbase for the coming season: Russell Wilson or a first-round (or very early second-round) quarterback.

Bears fans have grown impatient, and with every right. But until we know if either Wilson or a top prospect are achieved, there is no reason to be decisive about this Bears off-season. That time, however, is rapidly approaching.

Another Wednesday, another collection of Bears-related links from the wonderland known as the the World Wide Web.

• In their newest mock draft for The Athletic, Adam Jahns and Kevin Fishbain present a pivotal question facing the Bears on draft weekend: are Kellen Mond or Davis Mills likely targets after day one? (Mills seems to have shined as his Stanford pro day, per various reports. But if you can’t shine on your pro day, you’re literally just a terrible player.)
• Kyle Shanahan made news this week by deciding to attend the pro day of Mac Jones, not Justin Fields. This supports the widespread belief in league circles that the Niners are planning to select Jones third overall. So if you believe there are five first-round quarterbacks in this draft, the Bears are now down to two, Fields and Trey Lance.
• Really solid longish-form piece by Jeff Berckes at Windy City Gridiron, profiling the artist Jerry Keefe. Here’s a nice little passage:

  “So, you know who George Halas is, right?”

  Jerry Keefe’s son, also named Jerry, posed that question to me about five minutes into our first conversation. I happened to be staring at the bobblehead collection of Chicago Bears greats given out at home games for the 2019 season that sits on my desk. That collection includes the special Papa Bear bobblehead the Bears sent their season ticket holders, wearing his signature suit and fedora.

  Yeah, I know George Halas.

  “George was my Godfather.”

• ACTUAL BEAR NEWS, both from ABC.
  • First, the story of the second oldest polar bear in America dying after outliving his life expectancy by almost a decade. His name was Little One and he was born at the Cleveland Zoo in 1989.
  • Second, a book review. The book is called The Loneliest Polar Bear: A True Story of Survival and Peril on the Edge of a Warming World, by Kale Williams. The review is from Rob Merrill and his lede tells the story: “Nobody ever asked them if they wanted the job, but polar bears are the global symbols of climate change.”
• Dave Kindred is a sportswriting legend. 60 Minutes did a wonderful profile of his newest endeavor: covering high school girls hoops in central Illinois. (Thanks to my friend Rick Pearson for pointing me towards this piece.) He describes how he started this with perfect Kindred simplicity. “I went to a basketball game. And like the old war horse, I couldn’t sit there and not write about what I saw.”

Happy reading!

The San Francisco 49ers trading up to the third pick didn’t just hurt the Bears because it meant three quarterbacks would go in the first three picks. It also hurt because the trade illustrates what the cost will be for Chicago to get into position to select either of the other two premier quarterback prospects.

The 49ers traded three first round picks — including the 12th pick in 2021 — to move up nine spots. Even if the 49ers win the Super Bowl the next two seasons, the value of the picks they surrendered far outweighs the value of the pick they got. More likely, they’ll pick somewhere between 16th and 25th, which really blows the value charts out of the water.

What that means for the Bears is that even if two of the quarterbacks get out of the top 10 — possible, though not likely — the cost to move up to say 12 with Philadelphia is going to be astronomical. And doing so would firmly take the Bears out of the Russell Wilson sweepstakes because, even if the Bears have a quarterback the Seahawks would want, they wouldn’t have the draft capital to make the trade work.

It has to be asked, what is more likely:

(1) That the Bears trade three first round picks and solve their decades-long quarterback crisis with Mac Jones, Trey Lance or Justin Fields.

Or

(2) That they use those picks to trade for Russell Wilson, who then solves the quarterback crisis himself.

The answer is pretty clear.

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Prior to the 16-game season era, Joe Namath was the only QB in pro football history to throw for 4,000 yards in a season.

At the conclusion of the 16-game season era, the Chicago Bears and… the New York Jets were the only teams to not have a 4,000-yard passer from ’78 to ’20.

— Football Perspective (@fbgchase) March 28, 2021

We assumed the Russell Wilson trade saga was over..

No, no, no.. #PatMcAfeeShowLIVE pic.twitter.com/6TPZQKknQS

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) March 25, 2021