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Caleb’s Close-Up: Volume III, Time to Throw

| March 19th, 2025

In part one, we saw that Caleb Williams generally struggled as a passer during his rookie season, and part two revealed that most of those struggles came on deeper passes. Today, we’ll continue diving deeper into Williams’ statistical profile to try and figure out where improvement is most needed going forward.


Play Action

Let’s start by looking at how Caleb Williams did on play-action drop backs compared to standard passing plays. Before I present the full data, I want to briefly explain two PFF stats that will be used:

  • Big Time Throw. These are best described as a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window. In other words, these are really good, difficult passes that should result in highly valuable big plays. A higher % here is better.
  • Turnover Worthy Play. These include fumbles in the pocket, interceptions thrown, and interceptable passes that were not caught. A lower % here is better.

Both of these stats will admittedly have some subjectivity, but they provide a useful glimpse into how frequently a QB makes a really good play vs. a really bad one.

The table below shows how Williams performed in a wide variety of statistics in play action (orange) vs. other dropbacks (blue), and also includes Williams’ rank (in parentheses) out of 34 total NFL QBs who had at least 250 pass attempts. Information on the spread of all NFL QBs is also provided for each stat. Cells highlighted in green indicate Williams was among the top 25% of QBs in this category, while those in red indicate Williams was in the bottom 25% of QBs. All data comes from Pro Football Focus (PFF) unless otherwise noted.

(If you can’t view the full figure, click on it to open in a new tab. Sorry about formatting issues.)

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Caleb’s Close-Up: Volume II, Where He Threw the Football

| March 18th, 2025

Yesterday we saw that Caleb Williams generally struggled as a passer during his rookie season. Today we’re going to dive deeper into those stats to see if we can figure out where it all went wrong.


Sorting By Depth

Let’s look at how frequently and effectively Williams targeted each depth of the field.

The table below shows information splitting the field into four areas, which I will refer to as behind the line, short (0-9 yards), medium (10-19 yards), and deep (20+ yards downfield). Williams’ pass frequency, accuracy, completion percentage, and yards/attempt are shown, as well as how he ranked compared to 34 NFL QBs with at least 250 pass attempts. The best, average, and worst value from around the NFL is given, and any areas where Williams was in the top 25% are highlighted in green, while areas in the bottom 25% are highlighted in red. All data comes from Pro Football Focus (PFF) unless otherwise noted.

(If you can’t view the full figure, click on it to open in a new tab. Sorry about formatting issues.)

[Quick note: I realize the numbers for frequency don’t add up to 100%, but this is PFF’s data, and it’s the same data for everybody, so I’m just rolling with it for a fair comparison. My guess is that they are excluding throwaway passes that didn’t have a clearly defined target, which account for the missing percentage.]

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Caleb’s Close-Up: Volume I, Overview

| March 17th, 2025


How good was Caleb Williams as a rookie?

Expectations were sky high for Chicago’s signal caller after they drafted him with the #1 overall pick, added playmakers like Keenan Allen, Gerald Everett, D’Andre Swift, and Rome Odunze to the offense, and tapped Shane Waldron, one of the most highly regarded offensive coordinators on the market, to lead the unit. Many in the media argued that Williams was stepping into a historically good situation for a QB selected #1 overall.

Offseason optimism quickly turned into a real-life dumpster fire, however.

  • Gerald Everett was clearly washed up and managed only 36 receiving yards (this should not have been a surprise).
  • Keenan Allen spent a good chunk of the season looking washed up and had arguably the worst healthy season of his career.
  • DJ Moore, fresh off a career season and monster extension, spent much of the year looking disinterested in playing football and had one of the worst seasons of his career.
  • Chicago’s offensive line saw ten players play at least 100 snaps while giving up a league-worst 68 sacks.
  • Chicago cycled through two head coaches and three offensive coordinators.

Through all this chaos, Caleb Williams somehow managed to start all 17 games, playing all but 13 offensive snaps, and threw for 3,541 yards, with 20 touchdowns to 6 interceptions. He even added 489 rushing yards, bringing him over 4,000 yards from scrimmage on the season. Pretty good, right?

Those are all volume numbers, but don’t say all that much about how well a player actually performed. In this series, we’re going to dive into Williams’ advanced statistical profile to see what he did well, where he struggled, and what insights we can glean about his future.

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Off-Season/Free Agent Acquisitions: Highlights and Commentary

| March 13th, 2025


The NFL allows their media partners to post NFL content on YouTube. They do not, however, allow secondary sites (like this one) to embed those YouTube videos on our platforms. I guess twenty years of promoting their product is not enough. So unfortunately, only links provided.


Grady Jarrett

Highlights: Atlanta Falcons Grady Jarrett Ultimate Highlights 2024

Commentary: Why the Falcons released Grady Jarrett and how it will affect the locker room – The Athletic


Dayo Odeyingbo

Highlights: Dayo Odeyingbo 2024 Highlights | Welcome to the Bears – YouTube

Commentary: Colts free agency: Why didn’t Dayo Odeyingbo re-sign and join Bears?


Joe Thuney

Highlights: Creed Humphrey & Joe Thuney vs Vita Vea (2024) | OL vs DL Matchup

Commentary: Chiefs News: Andy Reid discusses Joe Thuney’s departure – Arrowhead Pride

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Three Thoughts on Free Agency (Thus Far)

| March 12th, 2025


(1) The Bears will have one of the better offensive lines in the league next season. Drew Dalman and Joe Thuney are VERY good players. Jonah Jackson is a significant improvement at right guard. Are the Bears done on the line? Doubtful. Ben Johnson knows his top priority is the QB’s development and he’s well aware that an OL is required to do so.

(2) Grady Jarrett can still play at a high level, and did so in 2024. Dennis Allen has been watching Jarrett tape for years. He knows what he’s getting.

(3) Nothing the Bears did this week should impact their approach when it comes to the draft.

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