I’m off to Dallas,
to answer a big question…
wha is the best bar?
The Friday column returns (in earnest) next week.
Friday Haiku.
I’m off to Dallas,
to answer a big question…
wha is the best bar?
The Friday column returns (in earnest) next week.
Find out here:
The Bears have three rookies with a chance to play meaningful roles on offense or defense this year, so I want to take some time this week to look at what history can tell us about what to expect for those players, both in their rookie seasons and in their careers. We started with QB Caleb Williams, looked yesterday at WR Rome Odunze, and today we’ll end the series with a look at DE Austin Booker.
Booker was drafted in round 5 this year, so to look at historical comparisons I examined all 29 defensive ends selected in round 5 over the last 10 drafts. Full data set can be seen here.
Some might argue that Booker was projected as a 3rd round pick before the draft (he was 85th on the Consensus Big Board), so he should not be compared to typical 5th rounders, but Arif Hasan, who runs the Consensus Big Board, has found that “steals” – players who are drafted appreciably later than their pre-draft media projection – end up performing more in line with their draft slot than their media projected slot, so comparing him to other 5th round picks is still a valid approach.
With that in mind, let’s examine how these 29 defensive ends performed as rookies.
Overall, defensive ends drafted in the 5th round didn’t do much; their average stat line was 202 snaps, 12.5 tackles, and 1.5 sacks. Of course, there was a wide fluctuation of outcomes among 29 players, so the table below breaks them up into groups based on how many snaps they played.
The Bears have three rookies with a chance to play meaningful roles on offense or defense this year, so I want to take some time this week to look at what history can tell us about what to expect for those players, both in their rookie seasons and in their careers. We looked yesterday at QB Caleb Williams, and today will focus on WR Rome Odunze, before ending tomorrow with a look at DE Austin Booker.
To get a baseline for Odunze, I looked at all WRs drafted near him in the last 10 years. Odunze was drafted 9th overall, so I went +/- 5 picks and looked at WRs drafted between 4th and 14th. This gave a list of 17 players who were viewed fairly similarly to Odunze coming out of college, and enables us to see what history has to say about reasonable expectations for Odunze, both as a rookie and in his career.
With that setup in mind, let’s take a look at how those 17 WRs fared as rookies. Full data can be seen here, but the average stat line for these players was 13 games and 680 snaps played, with 91 targets leading to 54 catches for 766 yards and 5 TD.
That’s not bad – those values would have ranked 41st among WR in targets, 46th in receptions, 40th in yards, and 28th in TD. Basically, the average player in this sample has performed like a mid-tier WR2.
The Bears have three rookies with a chance to play meaningful roles on offense or defense this year, so I want to take some time this week to look at what history can tell us about what to expect for those players, both in their rookie seasons and in their careers. We’ll start today with QB Caleb Williams, shift tomorrow to WR Rome Odunze, and end with a look at DE Austin Booker.
To get a baseline for Caleb Williams, I looked at the last 10 QBs drafted 1st overall, going back to Sam Bradford in 2010. I only wanted to look at QBs drafted 1st overall because they are significantly different than other highly drafted QBs in a few notable ways:
QBs are by far the most valuable players in the NFL, and so any QB who is widely regarded as a top-level prospect is going to get drafted #1 overall. Accordingly, I want to compare Williams directly to his peers, not to others who might get drafted highly out of desperation.
With that setup in mind, let’s take a look at how these 10 QBs fared as rookies. Full data can be seen here, but the average stat line for these players was 504 pass attempts, 60% completion, 6.7 yards/attempt, 17 TD, 13 INT, and an 80.2 passer rating.
Some people call them hot dogs.
We call them cheezborger breaks. #NationalHotDogDay pic.twitter.com/44PMjpORm0— Billy Goat Tavern (@Cheezborger) July 17, 2019
D'andre Swift
•Just got paid RB1 money
•Elite pass catching ability
•Positive touchdown regression
•Top 10 in Fantasy points per touch in 3 of last 4 seasons pic.twitter.com/1d3WdhFRmy— Nick Guglielmo (@NextLvl_Fantasy) June 30, 2024
.@dan_bernstein once deemed Bears head coach Matt Eberflus to be "Powdered Toast Man."
Bernstein has now done a 180. He loves how the Flus has reinvented himself, particularly as a face of the Bears organization.
Listen to full segment: https://t.co/cI3paUL36V pic.twitter.com/XysQllNuQ2
— 670 The Score (@670TheScore) June 20, 2024
Rome Odunze's ability to beat press by playing half a man and crossing a cornerback's face, combined with his ability to turn 50/50 balls to 80/20 in his favor? It all makes him a nightmare to cover. pic.twitter.com/NzYaRjY3A1
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) July 1, 2024
