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Legal Tampering Day One, Open Thread

| March 13th, 2023


DBB is on spring break this week. And in lieu of spending the week drunk and shirtless in Daytona Beach, I’m hanging out with Sarah and the cats in Queens while doing very little mental labor. So, we’ll start this week with a series of three open threads during the legal tampering period and opening day of free agency, allowing the comments section to be the place to discuss the moves/non-moves. Thursday we will return with some longer reflections. 


 

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Dannehy: Four Thoughts Before Free Agency

| March 9th, 2023


Defensive Tackle Market Will Be Interesting.

The market took am initial hit when the Washington Commanders placed the franchise tag on Daron Payne. But a bigger shock came when a warrant was issued for the arrest of Georgia star Jalen Carter. The number of impact guys is dwindling but there are still a lot of interesting names.

  • Javon Hargrave is probably the best player available, but the Bears might not be interested in giving a large contract to a seven-year veteran who just turned 30 years old.
  • Dre’mont Jones – 26 when the next season begins – has been playing in Denver’s 3-4 since coming into the league in 2019 but could thrive switching to a scheme that allows him to shoot the gap every play.
  • Zach Allen, who will also be 26, has been a defensive end in his career, but could benefit from a move inside.
  • Without question the most interesting potential option is Northwestern’s Adetomiwa Adebawore. While the Wildcats moved him around the line of scrimmage, Adebawore showed burst inside at the Senior Bowl and lit up the combine with a 4.49-second 40-yard dash (1.61 10-yard split) and a 37.5-inch vertical, while weighting 282 pounds with arms that are about 34 inches long.

Looking for an Edge.

While the Bears will have a ton of interesting options on the interior of their defensive line, the edge market might not be as strong as once thought.

For starters, the free agent market has very few adequate options. And while Will Anderson is the consensus best player in the draft, the Bears probably won’t be able to draft him if they trade back.

In Matt Eberflus’ time as a defensive coordinator and head coach, his teams have exclusively drafted ends who have weighed at least 250 pounds with at least 33-inch arms and a 35-inch vertical jump. The only defensive ends to jump 35 inches with the aforementioned size and length were Pittsburgh’s Habakkuk Baldonado, Missouri’s Isaiah McGuire, Louisville’s Yaya Diaby and Adebawore, who the Bears could see as a tackle.

The Pro Day circuit will be interesting to watch here. There were a number of players — like Iowa’s Lukas Van Ness — who showed very good all-around athleticism but didn’t jump well. The NFL changed the combine workouts around again this year, so it’s possible that the jumps were impacted by that.

Otherwise, the Bears might be scrambling to revamp their defensive line, especially on the outside.

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Zooming in on the Blockers, Vol. 3: Center, TE, WR

| March 8th, 2023


Prior days explored the tackles and guards, and today will focus on center, with a bonus glance at tight end and wide receiver blocking.

Center

Let’s start with center, the last position on the offensive line and an area that has been held down exclusively by Sam Mustipher for the last two seasons.

Pass Blocking

The table below shows how Mustipher held up in pass protection compared to the 39 centers around the NFL who had at least 200 pass blocking snaps. All data is from Pro Football Focus (PFF), and true pass sets are intended to remove plays designed to minimize the pass rush, such as screens, play action, and rollout. Cells highlighted in green indicate a rank in the top 25%, while red indicates the bottom 25%.



There’s really only one takeaway here: Sam Mustipher is awful in pass protection. Every column that’s not red just missed the cutoff. (Every Bears fan already knows this, so I don’t think we’re breaking any new ground.)

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Zooming in on the Blockers, Vol. 2: Guards

| March 7th, 2023


Yesterday, we explored the tackles, where Braxton Jones looks like a solid starter. Today, we will look at the guards.

Pass Blocking

The Bears had four guards play meaningful snaps last year, and the table below shows how they held up in pass protection compared to the 77 guards around the NFL who had at least 200 pass blocking snaps (Lucas Patrick did not have enough snaps to qualify, so his ranks are where he would have fit if he did). All data is from Pro Football Focus (PFF), and true pass sets are intended to remove plays designed to minimize the pass rush, such as screens, play action, and rollout. Cells highlighted in green indicate they ranked in the top 25%, while red indicates the bottom 25%.



A few thoughts:

  • Like we saw with the tackles, the Bears minimized the amount of true pass sets in order to protect an offensive line that they didn’t trust to hold up in protection. And like we saw with tackles, they generally had good reason not to trust the line, as there’s a whole lot of red and not a lot of green in this chart.
  • Looking at individual players, the top three aren’t too bad. Nobody really stands out as being all that good, but they’re mostly around average to maybe a bit below average.
  • Lucas Patrick, on the other hand, was horrible. I know he struggled through injuries last year, but he was legitimately one of the worst guards in the NFL.

Teven Jenkins got a lot of hype from Bears fans last year, but he seemed to struggle a bit as a pass protector, especially in true pass sets. Of course, it was his first season as a starter, so it’s possible that he improved as the season went on, like we saw from Braxton Jones yesterday. The table below looks at his performance when splitting the season into four-game intervals. Jenkins got hurt during the season in 2022, so he only played five games from Week 9 on, and those are all put into one sample.



Here you can see that some improvement was made as a pass protector, at least based on PFF’s grades. This is especially evident in the true pass sets, which is where Jenkins most struggled. Hopefully that progress can continue going forward.

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Zooming in on the Blockers, Vol. 1: Tackles

| March 6th, 2023


Free agency is right around the corner, and the Bears have money to spend. In order to best understand which positions they need to prioritize, it helps to examine who they have coming back. I already did that at both defensive end and defensive tackle, and this week the focus shifts to the offensive line. That starts today with a look at the tackles.

Pass Blocking

The Bears had three offensive tackles play meaningful snaps last year, and the table below shows how they held up in pass protection compared to the 79 tackles around the NFL who had at least 200 pass blocking snaps. All data is from Pro Football Focus (PFF), and true pass sets are intended to remove plays designed to minimize the pass rush, such as screens, play action, and rollout. Cells highlighted in green indicate they ranked in the top 25%, while red indicates the bottom 25%.



A few thoughts:

  • The first thing to notice is that the Bears utilized true pass sets at among the lowest rate of any NFL team last year. This indicates the lack of trust they had in their offensive line. To think of it another way, the Bears helped their offensive line in pass protection more than pretty much any NFL team.
  • The rest of the data makes it pretty clear why the Bears didn’t trust their tackles to hold up in pass protection. All three of them ranked below average in pretty much every category.
  • This data is especially concerning for Braxton Jones, who graded the worst of the three but is generally expected to be Chicago’s starting left tackle in 2023. However, he was a rookie in 2022, so perhaps he showed growth throughout the season. To check that hypothesis, the table below shows how he graded if you split the season into four-game samples. (Five games at the end of the year. Curse you, 17th game for messing up the easy sample breakdown!)

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(Potential) Free Agent Spotlight: Mike McGlinchey, OT, San Francisco

| March 3rd, 2023

Team Need Score: 10/10. Is McGlinchey a great tackle? No. But he’s a solid, professional starter and this offensive line could desperately use his reliability and leadership.


2022 Highlights on YouTube: #49ers RT Mike McGlinchey vs Raiders Maxx Crosby (Week 17) – YouTube


PFF Contract Projection: “On its list of the top unrestricted free agents available this offseason, Pro Football Focus ranks McGlinchey as No. 10 with a projected four-year contract worth $62 million.”


Analysis: “Losing McGlinchey, despite his inefficiencies, would be huge for the 49ers if they don’t have an apparent replacement of his caliber, given what he does in the running game and that pass protection has already been an issue at times this season, especially in the playoffs.” Read the entire piece HERE.

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(Potential) Free Agent Spotlight: Dalton Schultz, TE, Dallas

| March 2nd, 2023

Team Need Score: 5/10. Schultz is not a great blocker, so it’s unlikely he’ll have much appeal to this run-first coaching staff. But the Bears need to keep adding weapons in the passing attack and Schultz has shown an ability to find holes in defensive zones. He’s an incredibly productive pass-catching tight end.


2022 Highlights on YouTube: Dalton Schultz 2022-23 Full Season Highlights – YouTube


Draft Network Contract Projection: “The deal will be for four years and worth somewhere in the range of $57.5-58 million for an average annual value between $14.375-14.5 million, making him the second highest-paid tight end in the NFL.”


Analysis: “The question now becomes who among this group becomes the main security blanket for Dak Prescott in 2023? While Schultz has not put up numbers resembling the likes of Travis Kelce or George Kittle, he has become a reliable target in the passing game. Since he arrived in Dallas as a fourth round pick out of Stanford, Schultz has quietly become one of the Cowboys’ biggest weapons on offense.” Read the whole story HERE.

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Dannehy: Four Things to Watch at Combine

| March 1st, 2023


With the first pick and the possibility of getting more selections, all eyes are going to be on the Chicago Bears in Indianapolis this weekend.

In the second year of the Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus regime, we have a better idea of what kind of players the team is looking to add. Beyond just the standard answer they give regarding players who fit the mental makeup they want, the Bears brass reiterated some of the physical attributes for which they are looking.

Here are four things to look for:

Quarterbacks

The Bears once again refused to offer unwavering commitment to Justin Fields as their quarterback and on Tuesday morning Poles made it sound as if the team is keeping its options open.

The door might only be open a crack, but if the Bears weren’t at least considering drafting a quarterback with the first overall pick, there would be no reason not to slam it shut. The idea that they need to make teams think they’re going draft a quarterback simply for leverage doesn’t make any sense. The only team that might panic is Houston, which would be more nervous about the idea the Colts are going to take a quarterback.

Compare it to the Eagles last year who, when rumor about interest in Russell Wilson or drafting a quarterback surfaced, said “there’s no doubt about it” when asked if Jalen Hurts was the team’s future at the position.

Nobody honestly expects the Bears to take a quarterback, but their refusal to say “this is Fields’ team” is weird. When teams are confident in their quarterback, they are almost always willing to broadcast that to the world.

The most likely explanation is that the Bears would be happy going forward with Fields as the quarterback, but would like to see if they can upgrade. There’s nothing wrong with that.

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(Potential) Free Agent Spotlight: Javon Hargrave, DL, Philadelphia

| February 28th, 2023


Team Need Score: 10/10. Hargrave will be 30 years old this season, so he’s not an ideal fit for a young, rebuilding Bears team. But he also had 11 sacks from an interior DL position and if the Bears hope to climb into respectability next season, Hargrave would be a huge step in that direction.


2022 Highlights on YouTube: Javon Hargrave 2022-23 Highlights || HD – YouTube


B/R Contract Projection: “Three years, $61.2 million, $40.25 million guaranteed”


Analysis: “Eagles All-22 Film Review: Javon Hargrave will be greatly missed if he’s not back.” Read the full report HERE.

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