DBB is on spring break this week. And in lieu of spending the week drunk and shirtless in Daytona Beach, I’m hanging out with Sarah and the cats in Queens while doing very little mental labor. So, we’ll start this week with a series of three open threads during the legal tampering period and opening day of free agency, allowing the comments section to be the place to discuss the moves/non-moves. Thursday we will return with some longer reflections.
Compensation update, per sources: Bears trading No. 1 overall pick to Carolina for:
pick No. 9
pick No. 61
a first-round pick in 2024
a second-round pick in 2025
WR DJ Moore pic.twitter.com/hHrHn1UIR2— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 10, 2023
Defensive Tackle Market Will Be Interesting.
The market took am initial hit when the Washington Commanders placed the franchise tag on Daron Payne. But a bigger shock came when a warrant was issued for the arrest of Georgia star Jalen Carter. The number of impact guys is dwindling but there are still a lot of interesting names.
Looking for an Edge.
While the Bears will have a ton of interesting options on the interior of their defensive line, the edge market might not be as strong as once thought.
For starters, the free agent market has very few adequate options. And while Will Anderson is the consensus best player in the draft, the Bears probably won’t be able to draft him if they trade back.
In Matt Eberflus’ time as a defensive coordinator and head coach, his teams have exclusively drafted ends who have weighed at least 250 pounds with at least 33-inch arms and a 35-inch vertical jump. The only defensive ends to jump 35 inches with the aforementioned size and length were Pittsburgh’s Habakkuk Baldonado, Missouri’s Isaiah McGuire, Louisville’s Yaya Diaby and Adebawore, who the Bears could see as a tackle.
The Pro Day circuit will be interesting to watch here. There were a number of players — like Iowa’s Lukas Van Ness — who showed very good all-around athleticism but didn’t jump well. The NFL changed the combine workouts around again this year, so it’s possible that the jumps were impacted by that.
Otherwise, the Bears might be scrambling to revamp their defensive line, especially on the outside.
Prior days explored the tackles and guards, and today will focus on center, with a bonus glance at tight end and wide receiver blocking.
Let’s start with center, the last position on the offensive line and an area that has been held down exclusively by Sam Mustipher for the last two seasons.
Pass Blocking
The table below shows how Mustipher held up in pass protection compared to the 39 centers around the NFL who had at least 200 pass blocking snaps. All data is from Pro Football Focus (PFF), and true pass sets are intended to remove plays designed to minimize the pass rush, such as screens, play action, and rollout. Cells highlighted in green indicate a rank in the top 25%, while red indicates the bottom 25%.
There’s really only one takeaway here: Sam Mustipher is awful in pass protection. Every column that’s not red just missed the cutoff. (Every Bears fan already knows this, so I don’t think we’re breaking any new ground.)
Yesterday, we explored the tackles, where Braxton Jones looks like a solid starter. Today, we will look at the guards.
Pass Blocking
The Bears had four guards play meaningful snaps last year, and the table below shows how they held up in pass protection compared to the 77 guards around the NFL who had at least 200 pass blocking snaps (Lucas Patrick did not have enough snaps to qualify, so his ranks are where he would have fit if he did). All data is from Pro Football Focus (PFF), and true pass sets are intended to remove plays designed to minimize the pass rush, such as screens, play action, and rollout. Cells highlighted in green indicate they ranked in the top 25%, while red indicates the bottom 25%.
A few thoughts:
Teven Jenkins got a lot of hype from Bears fans last year, but he seemed to struggle a bit as a pass protector, especially in true pass sets. Of course, it was his first season as a starter, so it’s possible that he improved as the season went on, like we saw from Braxton Jones yesterday. The table below looks at his performance when splitting the season into four-game intervals. Jenkins got hurt during the season in 2022, so he only played five games from Week 9 on, and those are all put into one sample.
Here you can see that some improvement was made as a pass protector, at least based on PFF’s grades. This is especially evident in the true pass sets, which is where Jenkins most struggled. Hopefully that progress can continue going forward.
Free agency is right around the corner, and the Bears have money to spend. In order to best understand which positions they need to prioritize, it helps to examine who they have coming back. I already did that at both defensive end and defensive tackle, and this week the focus shifts to the offensive line. That starts today with a look at the tackles.
Pass Blocking
The Bears had three offensive tackles play meaningful snaps last year, and the table below shows how they held up in pass protection compared to the 79 tackles around the NFL who had at least 200 pass blocking snaps. All data is from Pro Football Focus (PFF), and true pass sets are intended to remove plays designed to minimize the pass rush, such as screens, play action, and rollout. Cells highlighted in green indicate they ranked in the top 25%, while red indicates the bottom 25%.
A few thoughts:
Team Need Score: 10/10. Is McGlinchey a great tackle? No. But he’s a solid, professional starter and this offensive line could desperately use his reliability and leadership.
2022 Highlights on YouTube: #49ers RT Mike McGlinchey vs Raiders Maxx Crosby (Week 17) – YouTube
PFF Contract Projection: “On its list of the top unrestricted free agents available this offseason, Pro Football Focus ranks McGlinchey as No. 10 with a projected four-year contract worth $62 million.”
Analysis: “Losing McGlinchey, despite his inefficiencies, would be huge for the 49ers if they don’t have an apparent replacement of his caliber, given what he does in the running game and that pass protection has already been an issue at times this season, especially in the playoffs.” Read the entire piece HERE.
Team Need Score: 5/10. Schultz is not a great blocker, so it’s unlikely he’ll have much appeal to this run-first coaching staff. But the Bears need to keep adding weapons in the passing attack and Schultz has shown an ability to find holes in defensive zones. He’s an incredibly productive pass-catching tight end.
2022 Highlights on YouTube: Dalton Schultz 2022-23 Full Season Highlights – YouTube
Draft Network Contract Projection: “The deal will be for four years and worth somewhere in the range of $57.5-58 million for an average annual value between $14.375-14.5 million, making him the second highest-paid tight end in the NFL.”
Analysis: “The question now becomes who among this group becomes the main security blanket for Dak Prescott in 2023? While Schultz has not put up numbers resembling the likes of Travis Kelce or George Kittle, he has become a reliable target in the passing game. Since he arrived in Dallas as a fourth round pick out of Stanford, Schultz has quietly become one of the Cowboys’ biggest weapons on offense.” Read the whole story HERE.
With the first pick and the possibility of getting more selections, all eyes are going to be on the Chicago Bears in Indianapolis this weekend.
In the second year of the Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus regime, we have a better idea of what kind of players the team is looking to add. Beyond just the standard answer they give regarding players who fit the mental makeup they want, the Bears brass reiterated some of the physical attributes for which they are looking.
Here are four things to look for:
The Bears once again refused to offer unwavering commitment to Justin Fields as their quarterback and on Tuesday morning Poles made it sound as if the team is keeping its options open.
The door might only be open a crack, but if the Bears weren’t at least considering drafting a quarterback with the first overall pick, there would be no reason not to slam it shut. The idea that they need to make teams think they’re going draft a quarterback simply for leverage doesn’t make any sense. The only team that might panic is Houston, which would be more nervous about the idea the Colts are going to take a quarterback.
Compare it to the Eagles last year who, when rumor about interest in Russell Wilson or drafting a quarterback surfaced, said “there’s no doubt about it” when asked if Jalen Hurts was the team’s future at the position.
Nobody honestly expects the Bears to take a quarterback, but their refusal to say “this is Fields’ team” is weird. When teams are confident in their quarterback, they are almost always willing to broadcast that to the world.
The most likely explanation is that the Bears would be happy going forward with Fields as the quarterback, but would like to see if they can upgrade. There’s nothing wrong with that.
Team Need Score: 10/10. Hargrave will be 30 years old this season, so he’s not an ideal fit for a young, rebuilding Bears team. But he also had 11 sacks from an interior DL position and if the Bears hope to climb into respectability next season, Hargrave would be a huge step in that direction.
2022 Highlights on YouTube: Javon Hargrave 2022-23 Highlights || HD – YouTube
B/R Contract Projection: “Three years, $61.2 million, $40.25 million guaranteed”
Analysis: “Eagles All-22 Film Review: Javon Hargrave will be greatly missed if he’s not back.” Read the full report HERE.
