Before the season, I broke up the Bears schedule into three distinct segments:

• Segment One: Weeks 1-6, leading into the bye.
• Segment Two: Weeks 8-10
• Segment Three: Weeks 11-18, wherein six of their final eight games are against division opponents.

Segment one was a success. Could the Bears have beaten both the Texans and the Colts? Absolutely. But they also could have lost to the Titans and Rams. 4-2 is a fair representation of the performance we’ve seen from this team over the first six weeks of the season, and 4-2 gives the Bears an opportunity to be playing knockout football in January.

The next evaluative moment in this season will come at the end of Sunday, November 10th. (For those of you not on Twitter, I’ll be presenting one of my favorite films, Sweet Smell of Success, at the Jacob Burns Film Center in Pleasantville, NY that morning.) After these next three games, the Bears will have played (essentially) half their schedule, nine games, and will be able to establish clear win/loss goals for the second and far more difficult half of their schedule.

So, how do these matchups look?

Sunday 10/27 – @ Washington Commanders

General feeling: Toss-up.

The Commanders have been one of the real surprises of the 2024 season, mostly due to their rookie quarterback’s inspiring play. (The Bears fans on Twitter that seem to resent the success of Jayden Daniels need to grow up.) But Washington still doesn’t play much defense and, with two weeks to prepare, the Bears should be expected to (at worst) make this a shootout.

[Side note: I will be in attendance for this game, which essentially guarantees something abnormal will take place.]

Sunday 11/3 (NYC Marathon Sunday!) – @ Arizona Cardinals

General feeling: Lean Bears.

Arizona is a feisty team, but they are awful defensively, and that building in the desert will be at least half transplants from Chicago.

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The Bears are 4-2. And as they head into their bye week, one thing is certainly clear: a season, a real season, is possible.

Not that entering the bye week at .50o would have precluded the Bears from having a strong finish to this campaign and fighting for a postseason berth. It would not have, especially with the way their rookie quarterback is playing. But 4-2 puts the team on the front foot, places them squarely in the playoff conversation, and gives them a significant amount of momentum as they try and get their secondary healthy over this next fortnight.

What is important for the team right now?

• The aforementioned secondary health. The Bears finished their game Sunday without Brisker, Stevenson and Gordon on the field. That is not a path to sustainable success, especially with the passing attacks of Washington, Arizona and Green Bay peppering the next month.
• Sort the offensive line. Is this offensive line going to be a top unit in 2024? No. That’s obvious. But the Bears need to decide on their best five, which will hopefully involve a returning Ryan Bates, and start to develop serious chemistry within that unit.
• Continue offensive momentum. The quarterback is playing brilliantly. The running game is coming around. The pass catchers are all getting involved. Shane Waldron’s offense has been humming as of late and continued progress should be expected as the team uses this bye week to correct mistakes.
• Survey the trade market. Ryan Poles has not been shy when it comes to in-season trades and the Bears have an explicit need on the defensive edge. Are any non-contenders willing to make a deal? Does any team actually believe they are a non-contender?

The stage has been set. Now, the play’s the thing.

My brother once bought me a Rex Grossman Florida Gators jersey, and when Rex was the quarterback of the Chicago Bears, we would hang that jersey in the bar at Josie Woods. Whenever Rex would throw a touchdown pass, I would (drunkenly) shout “WHO WANTS TO GET REXED?!?!?” This was followed by my removing the dank garment from the wall and tossing it over the head of an unwitting bystander to the applause of the celebratory horde. There was an irony to that ritual. I knew Rex Grossman wasn’t a great quarterback and was fairly certain he would never be a great quarterback. But he was our quarterback in that moment and that was all that mattered. I would have done the same for any of ’em.

Miller and Matthews.

Kyle Orton.

Kordell Stewart.

Jay Cutler.

Glennon and Dalton.

Mitch Trubisky.

Justin Fields.

The parade of young men who have attempted to fill this team’s quarterbacking void is a murderer’s row of mediocrity (or worse). It seemed clear to me, as I live out my 43rd year on the planet earth and my 20th year writing about the Chicago Bears, that a franchise quarterback was not something I would ever experience. I had submitted my letter of resignation to my boss at Hope, Incorporated, a subsidiary of Belief Enterprises. The framed pictures of Sarah, Bear and Beatrix that had adorned my office desk were now neatly placed into a cardboard box, as I awaited security’s escort to the parking lot.

But then I woke up on Sunday morning, October 13th, 2024, and everything changed.

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These were pretty damn good a week ago. Let’s see if we can keep it going.

• Caleb Williams is going to throw between 40-50 passes and put together a rarely seen stat line when it comes to the quarterback position for the Chicago Bears, as he nears 400 yards passing.
• Tank Bigsby will have success on the ground, gaining decent chunks on first and second downs, allowing the Jacksonville short passing game to move the chains.
• Bears will counter the Jacksonville edge rushers early by going to the screen game, with D’Andre Swift breaking a big one.
• Cole Kmet: 6 catches, 71 yards, touchdown.
• Jaylon Johnson picks off Trevor at a pivotal moment in the fourth quarter, as the quarterback tries to force a pass to his young star, Brian Thomas.

Chicago Bears 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 24

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.

Caleb Williams, the Winning Haiku

From commenter “Please bear in mine” and I’m not sure I totally understand it but rolling with it anyway.

Ah, competition.
Chasing luck, Winter dance comes,
Mornings, fleeting youth.

Notes on Jaguars v. Colts

• This is a game where the Bears, and Caleb, need to attack the middle of the field with the passing attack. Joe Flacco exploited a ton of space for all four quarters.
• Jaguars are good against the run, currently ranked 8th in the league. The Colts had 34 points in Jacksonville last weekend and didn’t surpass 100 yards on the ground.
• With the Bears struggling against north-to-south rushing attacks, Tank Bigsby could be a real problem for them. Travis Etienne is a more versatile back, but Bigsby runs an awful lot like Chuba Hubbard and Hubbard averaged 7.5 yards per carry at Soldier Field. Watch the physicality Bigsby runs with on his touchdown in the middle of the third quarter. (Etienne is Trevor Lawrence’s quick outlet option, especially when he releases into a vacant space behind the defensive line.)
• Josh Hines-Allen v. Braxton Jones has the potential to be a game-defining battle. Hines-Allen doesn’t leave the right edge position and his burst off the line of scrimmage forced Flacco to release the ball quickly on at least 6-7 important downs. (Trevon Walker is a solid closer on the other side as well.)
• Trevor Lawrence was good to wide open deep options Sunday, but mediocre just about everywhere else.
• Mo Alie-Cox’s stat line for the Colts – 2/37/1 – may not look impressive. But he could easily have had a pair of additional touchdowns with a more accurate Flacco. Is this Cole Kmet’s breakout game in passing attack?

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His name is Trevor.

Seems a very British name.

Well, ‘allo Trevor!

Along Edgware Road,

Montez mangias on shawarma. 

Both white and red sauce.

(Note: Shawarma can be a three-syllable word, but I have never used more than two, so it’s writing in my colloquial.)

A bear in London,

is no werewolf of London.

Still, be wary, Jim.

Through five games, Caleb Williams:

• Completion percentage: 62.9%
• Yards: 1,091
  • Two 300-yard games in his last three.
  • Projects to 3,709 yards, just a hundred or so below the most in the history of the franchise
• Touchdowns: 5
• Interceptions: 4
  • 0 in last two games.
• Passer Rating: 81.3
  • Increased 30 points between weeks 2 and 3.
  • Increased 26 points between weeks 3 and 4.
  • Increased 20 points between weeks 4 and 5.
• And for all those salivating over Jayden Daniels, it is interesting to note that Daniels has one (1) more win, one (1) less touchdown and only 44 more passing yards.

So here is my poll question for the comments section below: what are fair seasonal expectations for Caleb Williams? Give me your answers in HAIKU FORM. Best response gets into this week’s game preview.

Bears did today exactly what they should be expected to do, at home, against an inferior opponent: they dominated. Both on the field AND on the sidelines, they dominated.

And they’ve got the real deal at QB. Finally.

3-2. Whole season in front of them.

— DaBearsBlog (@dabearsblog) October 6, 2024

Full content tomorrow. Nursing an injury,