And apparently, they’re ready to get to work.
https://twitter.com/ChicagoBears/status/1783680998951072208
Catch up on our live reaction to the picks from last night’s stream here:
Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze are Chicago Bears
And apparently, they’re ready to get to work.
https://twitter.com/ChicagoBears/status/1783680998951072208
Catch up on our live reaction to the picks from last night’s stream here:
Let me be honest with you — I haven’t allowed myself to think about Ryan Poles drafting any of the ‘Big 3’ Wide Receivers (Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze) for two reasons:
This logic made sense to me for a long time. But a few things happened yesterday that have me wondering if Ryan Poles has an explosive move planned for mid-Thursday night.
First off, when asked about whether Ryan Poles felt any need to add picks in this draft he had this to say:
Ryan Poles on whether he feels the need to add more than the Bears' four selections: "No, I feel really good with where we're at."
— Chris Emma (@CEmma670) April 23, 2024
Is that gamesmanship? Could be, but Ryan Poles has a habit of being unusually honest with the media in open sessions. I’ll never forget standing at Poles’ presser at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine where he all but told the media that he wanted to trade #1 overall before the start of Free Agency. Within days, the pick had been dealt.
But Poles (potentially) sticking at #9 doesn’t automatically signal interest in Odunze being the pick. The Bears could easily stick at #9 and take any of the popular pass-rushers on the board — names like Byron Murphy, Jared Verse, Dallas Turner come to mind.
But search presumed #1 Overall Pick Caleb Williams’ social media, and you’ll find a budding relationship blooming with he and Rome Odunze — is this a smoke screen? Or a smoke signal? You tell me.
We’ve got a few scouting reports coming later this week, but for today I’ve got a pair of Caleb Williams clips:
When it comes to Caleb Williams, plays like this get me much more excited than the 10+ second highlight extensions — watch this pocket movement.
RT beat, steps up. Feels LT & LG losing, sinks back for space. Whips a 3rd down completion amidst chaos. Rare pocket feel imo. pic.twitter.com/pLPQHTegbo
— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) April 15, 2024
It’s been a busy week for me in real life, so thanks for putting up with two audio posts back to back. Hoping to dig into some film by the end of the week.
Nick and I had a blast recording this last one — we talk through…
Late last night, the Chicago Bears acquired Chargers all-star WR Keenan Allen for their 4th round pick (#110) in the 2024 NFL Draft. I’ve got some quick thoughts on the move:
My overall grade? I like it. The fun factor is ~10/10. I’ve also already assumed that Matt Eberflus begged Poles to let him draft a 1st round defender anyways, so if this move is Poles’ way of making sure Chicago has weapons for a key 2024 season? I dig it.
This does make me wonder what the Bears’ plan is at WR going forward, but we can cross that bridge later. I’d love to draft a 2nd or 3rd round WR to develop throughout the year (Keon Coleman, Roman Wilson, Ricky Pearsall, etc), but I don’t know that the Bears will prioritize that. Also, is Keenan getting extended past 2024? I could see it, but he’ll be 33 next season. We’ll have to wait and see.
For now… Chicago added a 6-time Pro Bowler that’s a god amongst chain-moving WRs. He pairs perfectly with DJ Moore’s ability to threaten all levels of the field as well — those two should be monsters in 12-personnel.
I’m excited to see how this plays out — what an exciting time to be a Bears fan! What will Poles do from here? We’re just going to have to wait and see,
Below I threw in some of my favorite clips from a light film study last night — check it out and let me know what you think.
A few months ago I walked through Caleb Williams’ Notre Dame game & Drake Maye’s Georgia Tech game — it’s a great stream if you’re looking for a review of the presumed top 2 QBs in the 2024 NFL Draft Class.
I’m working on a few draft breakdowns this week, so we’ll be back with more content tomorrow. In the meantime, check this out if you missed it.
I’m happy to host this piece by Kyle Morris, a football statistician and a personal friend of mine, as he explores the differences between Caleb Williams, Justin Fields, Drake Maye, and how Time To Throw affects each Quarterback’s play on the football field.
If you’re a football fan who loves data, this is the article for you. If you aren’t a football fan who loves data, this article is still well worth your time — the insights held within it are core in discussing the ever-raging Bears’ QB debate, and Kyle does a great job numerically illustrating what I think the tape shows about each QB mentioned.
Kyle also has a podcast, which I’ll link right here. Enjoy the article, and let me know what you think in the comments below.
For the last six years I have attempted to determine how to best evaluate and project college quarterbacks to the NFL using advanced analytics.
For decades most NFL evaluators have adopted a fairly dismissive attitude toward college statistics, and for understandable reasons. Tim Tebow’s sparkling 66% college completion rate hid what became one of the NFL’s least accurate passers in recent memory. Josh Allen’s pedestrian numbers made him an enemy of most box score scouts, but actual scouts crowed about Allen’s physical tools. Even then, Josh is an outlier — he is a rare example of the NFL’s coaches improving a poor college passer, and the graveyard of prospects like Jake Locker and Kyle Boller demonstrate just how rare a story like that can be.
Ignoring a prospect’s college production carries as much (or more) risk as box score scouting. I’ve therefore spent a great deal of time trying to compile as many statistics as I can on every available college QB prospect, comparing them to each other, comparing them to their historical peers, figuring out what metrics might actually predict NFL success or failure, and which ones are just noise. Each year I look at what I got right or wrong, and I peel the layers back even further, trying to find out what I might have missed.
This leads me to today’s topic: Justin Fields, Caleb Williams, and the importance of Time To Throw.
If you’re unfamiliar with Time to Throw as a statistic, it’s pretty basic: it’s how much time after the snap a quarterback takes, on average, to throw the football. As basic this sounds, the factors that actually go into time to throw can be somewhat complicated — is a guy taking forever because he can’t read the defense and process information quickly? Is he getting rid of the ball too quickly, passing up options down the field and checking down immediately to avoid getting hit, thus passing up big plays in the process? Or is he doing the opposite of that and passing up wide open outlet throws (thus taking an extra second) to try and force an ill-advised throw downfield?
Given all this, how do we determine what factors into each individual quarterback’s time to throw?
When the Bears drafted Cade McNown in 1999, I didn’t care.
But do you remember the first game of the 2000 season? Against a very good Vikings team, McNown opened 27-41-290-2 and 10 carries, 81 yards and a TD on the ground. From my lounger at the now defunct ESPN Zone in Times Square, I got excited.
When the Bears drafted Rex Grossman in 2003, I didn’t care.
Reverend Dave and I watched that selection, thoroughly intoxicated with some British Browns fans, at a sports pub in Piccadilly Circus. It was a surreal and hysterical experience, but nobody celebrated anything. Yet by early in the 2006 season, there were few doubting Rex could be a top player at the professional level.
When the Bears drafted Mitch Trubisky in 2017, I didn’t care.
Well, I cared a little, as this was the first real scoop I had been given and was able to break on Twitter. I also won quite a bit of cash off the skeptical patrons of Mother Hubbard’s. (That ripped us off that night and I never returned.) I picked the Bears to go to the Super Bowl in 2019 specifically because of Mitch’s final drive against the Eagles in the Cody Parkey game; a drive I watched in the building.
When the Bears drafted Justin Fields in 2021, I didn’t care.
While the Robert Mays’s of the world got giddy on their podcasts (why is he always so damn giggly), I hadn’t been impressed by the two college games I’d seen Fields play and saw no reason for ecstasy. But there were clearly moments in his tenure I found genuinely thrilling, most of which were documented on this site. Fields is not a bad quarterback. He’s a limited one.
When the Bears take their next starting quarterback in April, I won’t care.
It’s draft season and Caleb Williams is on my mind — I’ll have a longer, more thorough breakdown out later this offseason, but today I wanted to highlight his play from within the pocket. Specifically, whenever I watch him I see the following:
Couple that with his tendency to keep his eyes downfield while scrambling, even when under duress, and you’ve got a very dangerous modern passer that looks like he’d fit right in on NFL Playoff Weekend after a bit of refinement in 2024.
Highlight reels are great, but how well does Caleb Williams play within structure?
Here's an 18-play reel that'll give you a feel for Caleb Williams within the pocket — you'll see quick throws, deep shots, progression reads, and plenty of talent. All from the big bad ND game. pic.twitter.com/PS33ThcJ0M
— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) January 9, 2024
One more I just found: the QB in Wisconsin has made plays like this famous over the last few weeks. Here’s the same throw under pressure made against one of the best defenses in college football.
Gorgeous Caleb Williams play from the pocket here:
– Reads Man coverage early, finds his open man
– Sees his LT get beat like a drum
– Creates space in the pocket, fades away from the pressure
– Flicks his wrist, drops a 33-yard dime in stride, WR tacks on YAC.Arm talent >>> pic.twitter.com/YnLyW6qfYO
— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) January 17, 2024
Editor’s Note: My son has been sick with stomach flu over the last few days, so I appreciate your patience within website content. It’s draft season, so I’ll see what I can whip up as I prep to head out to the Senior Bowl in a few weeks.
Last night I dove deep into the All-22 tape from both Caleb Williams & Drake Maye’s 2023 season to see what all the hype is about — throughout the stream I talked through:
Check it out and let me know what you think!
Your Turn: Do you even want the Bears to draft a new QB? Do you have a preference on who?
