Good opening weekend with the bookmakers, hitting on three of four bets. And I can’t regret laying points with the Saints against Kirk Cousins. (Might be time to wonder if the Saints are ever getting back the final Sunday of the NFL season.) Four more games this weekend. Four more bets. (Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.)

Saturday 3:35 PM Central

Vikings at 49ers (-7)

Over/Under 44

The number one seed in the conference is laying LESS than a touchdown, at home, to the six seed. That’s how close all these teams are in the NFC. Kirk Cousins played way better in New Orleans than I expected and this Niners defense is nothing close to what it was over the first half of the season. Shootout. Bet: Over 44

Saturday 7:15 PM Central

Titans at Ravens (-9.5)

Over/Under 46.5

I’ve stared at this number all week and my choice is coming down to one player: Derrick Henry. Do I think he’ll be enough to beat the Ravens? No. But I think he’ll be enough to keep the game close. Bet: Titans +9.5.

Sunday 2:05 PM Central

Texans at Chiefs (-9.5)

Over/Under 51

Andy Reid just drew the worst team remaining in the playoffs. Andy Reid’s nemesis, Bill Belichick, is gone. The stage is set. This should be ho-hum, 31-14, coast into the AFC Championship game. Bet: Chiefs -9.5.

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Grading NFL general managers is not a simple process. Most are happy with hit rates of 50% in the draft. Most make mistakes in free agency. Most haven’t created perfect rosters because the salary cap makes a “perfect roster” impossible. Most get a coach hire wrong at some stage.

Ryan Pace took over the Bears after they had just completed the most embarrassingly pitiful defensive season in franchise history. He took them over after a season where they embarrassed the city and fan base on and off the field. Five years later they have the most talented defensive roster in the league. Five years later they are a tight, cohesive group. That’s not easy. Everyone doesn’t do that. As a friend, who scouts for another franchise told me, “it’s a top five roster”.

But Pace, to the objective eye, has three deficient positions. And they’re not minor.

Quarterback.

He loved Marcus Mariota. Mariota is not any good.

He thought Mike Glennon could hold down the fort for a year and lead the Bears to a winning season. Glennon is not any good.

He has seemingly put his career on the line for Mitch Trubisky. Trubisky, it turns out, is not any good.

Pay no attention to the lip service paid at the postseason press conference. Pace is not going to let Trubisky go unchallenged into 2020 and risk his entire tenure on one of the game’s worst quarterbacks. Pace is beloved by ownership. They want desperately for him to be at the helm of football operations for years to come. But they will not patiently allow Trubisky to destroy what they believed was built in 2018.

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Four games. I’ll give you a bet for each. (All odds courtesy of DraftKing Sportsbook.)

Saturday 3:35 PM Central

Bills at Texans (-2.5)

Over/Under 44

My heart is all-in for the boys from 716 but Josh Allen, facing a good pass rush, on the road, terrifies me. Look for Allen to use his legs a bunch in this one but I still don’t see Buffalo producing enough offense. If this line were a point higher, I’d go the other way. Begrudging Bet: Houston -2.5. 

Saturday 7:15 PM Central

Titans at Patriots (-5)

Over/Under 44

Bill Belichick will go into this game with a one-track mind. If the Patriots stop Derrick Henry, they win. But Henry has quietly become the best back in football and New England struggles upfront against these bruising-type runners. I don’t know if Tennessee wins this game but I like them to keep it close. Bet: Tennessee +5.

Sunday 12:05 PM Central

Vikings at Saints (-8)

Over/Under 50

I thought the Saints were in the best team in football in 2017. They lost in the playoffs on a ridiculous play.

I thought the Saints were the best team in football in 2018. They lost in the playoffs on a ridiculous call.

I think the Saints are the best team in football in 2019. They’re not losing to Kirk Cousins. Bet: New Orleans -8.

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Trying to take a few days off so enjoy the new year. Content returns, in earnest, Thursday.

I have a strange lack of service where I am so I’ll be sporadically posting here between now and Wednesday, barring major Bears news.

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears…

…and we’re only guaranteed 16 of these ballgames a year. The next time the Bears will take the field is nine months away. Might as well enjoy seeing the colors out there.

Three Reasons to Sit Through This Game

• It won’t mean much to disappointed Bears fans but 8-8 will feel much better to this locker room than 7-9. They can endure this miserable campaign and know they were only a play or two away from being in the tournament ANYWAY.
  • And 4-2 in the NFC North will reaffirm the club’s belief that they are only a few moves away from being back atop the division in 2020. (Of course one of those moves needs to be at the most important position in professional sports.)
• There are four metrics one can look at to get a good sense of a quarterback’s play: FO’s DVOA (value per play), DYAR (total value), QB rating and total QBR. None are close to perfect but I believe if you take the average ranking of the four you can get a clearer picture. Here is where Mitch Trubisky ranks in all four:
  • DVOA: 26th
  • DYAR: 26th
  • QB Rating: 28th
  • Total QBR: 28th
  • Fan of old school stats? Mitch is 32nd in average yards per completion and 27th in touchdowns. There’s not a single, discernible stat one can look to for optimism regarding Trubisky’s performance this season.
  • Verdict: he’s been better than rookies and backups this year. Nobody else. So why is this a reason to watch? Maybe it’s his last start?
• Khalil Mack needs a sack and a half to get to double digits on the season. One has to believe he’ll be motivated to get there. And the Vikings offensive line will help. They are bad in protection.

Tweet of the Week

Two teams are tied for playing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses (average DVOA: -4.9%).

The team with the best defense (New England) and the team with the worst defense (Miami).

Hardest schedule of opposing offenses: Chicago.

— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@FO_ASchatz) December 23, 2019

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So we reach the end

of another sad campaign.

Get thee to a pub!

Who shall bear the blame?

Trubisky? Nagy? The line?

It don’t matter now.

Where once sat Club Dub,

Now is an abandoned lot.

Will the lights return?

This year I started watching holiday films on the day before Thanksgiving, opening with the wonderful Home for the Holidays and Planes, Trains and Automobiles. A month later, I’ve sat through just about every Christmas movie, TV special and Christmas sitcom episode there is to sit through. 68 in total. Before getting to my ten favorites, a few notes.

• I can’t deal with It’s a Wonderful Life. It’s just so damn dreary. I know it’s beloved but not by me.
• No, A Christmas Story is not on this list. And I recognize that will be an issue for many but this is my list and I legitimately dislike that movie.
• Those stop motion pictures creep me out. Year Without Santa Claus, Rudolph…etc.
• Can’t an argument be made that A Christmas Carol is the greatest book ever written? Look at how many brilliant interpretations of that novel have been created (two on this list alone).
• Even the non-great films produce some beautiful scenes:
  • Mila Kunis and Christine Baranski in the church at the end of Bad Moms Christmas.
  • Seth Rogen tripping out at the sight of a crucified Jesus in The Night Before.
  • Nic Cage coming clean to the town in Trapped in Paradise.
  • Schwarzenegger rifling off the names of the reindeer in Jingle All the Way.
  • Tim Allen giving the cruise to his neighbors in Christmas with the Kranks.
  • John Lithgow’s scenery chewing in Santa Claus the Movie.
  • Danny Elfman’s great tunes in Nightmare Before Christmas.

The list, with clips and such instead of writing. All of these movies are known.

#10 Die Hard

I’m sure people have discussed this but here’s my verdict on Die Hard as Christmas movie.

The villain is named Hans Gruber.

The music of “Silent Night” was written by a man named Franz Gruber.

Christmas movie.

— HughesReviews™️ (@HughesReviews) December 15, 2019

#9 Bad Santa

#8 Home Alone

#7 Gremlins

#6 The Ref

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