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Some Football Implications of the Khalil Mack Trade

| September 2nd, 2018

Khalil Mack is a Chicago Bear and much of yesterday was spent dissecting the context of the move: what the trade meant. But there are major football implications associated with this acquisition as well, especially for this defense as they are currently constructed. In other words, this is what the trade does.

  • The biggest beneficiaries of Mack’s acquisition are Leonard Floyd and Akiem Hicks. Throw on some Mack tape and you’ll see an endless array of double teams. (More often than not, he beats them too.) Mack will be Focal Point #1 for every opposing offensive coordinator because Mack is capable of ruining games. With all that attention on the newest Bear, expect Floyd and Hicks to see a lot of refreshing singles and subsequently expect a lot of production from both.
  • Mack had 79 QB pressures last season. The Bears team had 100. Total. For Mack, that’s five a game. That’s five times a game Aaron Rodgers or Matt Stafford don’t get to sit in a clean pocket and pick apart the Bears secondary. Expect more rushed throws and thus more opportunities for the Bears secondary to turn opposing QBs over.
  • It’s not easy to double team edge guys. It often requires keeping tight ends and backs out of the passing game. And in this modern NFL, tight ends and backs are wildcard weapons, keeping defensive coordinators on their heels, forcing guys with less speed to cover in space. When Mack gets disruptive it’ll force offenses to stay in a more conventional approach.
  • With all the focus on the edge, Vic Fangio will be able to drop Mack and Floyd into coverage and send Roquan and Trevathan at the quarterback. Vic will able to crash Mack inside and send Bryce Callahan on a slot corner blitz. Vic will be able to do whatever the hell he wants because that is what having an elite pass rusher affords you.

Mack makes every single player on the defense more dangerous. He is among the two or three best defenders in the entire league. And the Bears defense should be expected to rank in the top five across the board because of him.

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The Message of the Mack Trade

| September 1st, 2018

It’s on.

The time for patience has passed. The time for “Ryan Pace is building something interesting” has come and gone. The time for taking an emotionally balanced approach to this Chicago Bears campaign has boarded the 8:30 AM bus to, I don’t know, like three hours ago! (Forgive the shitty writing there but I’m pretty damn excited and I can’t wrap my head around all of this yet.)

It is on.

Does this move to acquire Khalil Mack from the Oakland Raiders mean they are a contender for the Super Bowl this season? I’d love to write a definitive NO. I’d love to echo Data’s contention that teams don’t go from crap to contender overnight. I’d love to write about the young, developing quarterback and the new coach/system and the quality opponents in the division and the blah blah blabbedy blah.

Ah, who am I kidding? I don’t want to write about any of those things. Because, as you might have noticed, it is definitively on.

In giving up multiple first-round selections for Mack, Pace is announcing that his team as presently built is ready to win far more games than they lose. In paying Mack a pile of money for his services, Pace is announcing that he’s ready to strike Super Bowl gold while his chosen quarterback is still operating on his rookie contract. Fans no longer have reason to be patient because today the Chicago Bears made the most thrillingly impatient move in the history of the franchise.

This wasn’t Jerry Angelo making the move for Jay Cutler. Sure, that was exciting but it was also bringing in a quarterback to a franchise that had never really had one. You can’t win consistently without a quarterback and Angelo understood that.

This move for Mack is about fortification. It is about fixing the only true hole in the defensive dam. It is a clear statement to the fan base that the Bears are not content with being one of the best defenses in the league. They want to be THE BEST. And with Mack added to this unit, they now have every opportunity to be just that.

Isn’t this what we always wanted? Weren’t we all tired of constantly settling for less-than-elite talent at positions across the field? This was the crux of The Great Cutler Debate (“not good enough to win championships”). This has been the crux of the Adrian Amos/PFF nonsense (“he’s a good player, stop believing he’s one of the league’s best”). Bears fans have grown accustomed to a roster of good players who struggle mightily when they square off with great ones, i.e. the fella playing quarterback up in Green Bay.

Today, Ryan Pace got a great one. That’s what Mack is. A great player at one of the most important positions in the sport. With great players come great expectations. Those expectations exist in Chicago, right now.

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Four Bold Predictions for the 2018 Chicago Bears: Prediction Three

| September 1st, 2018

They can’t all be positive. Three of the four will be, but not this one.


Prediction Three

The Bears will have ten less sacks in 2018 than 2017.


Why?

  • The 2018 Chicago Bears roster has a glaring hole: edge rusher. The best player at the position is Leonard Floyd and he’s coming off a season where he played 10 games and registered only 4.5 sacks. Couple those stats with the fact that he’s already broken his hand this summer and it’s hard to imagine Floyd having enough impact/consistency to elevate this short-handed group.
  • Bears got 10 sacks last season from the combination of Willie Young, Pernell McPhee and Lamarr Houston. All three of those guys are on the flip sides of their careers but they are bonafide, professional pass rushers. They know how to get to the quarterback and finish. Where are they making up for those numbers? Aaron Lynch? Nope.
  • Bears were ranked T-7 in sacks in 2017. Sacking the QB ten fewer times will land them in the bottom third of the league. It just feels like that’s where this unit is heading.

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Four Bold Predictions for the 2018 Chicago Bears: Prediction Two

| August 31st, 2018


Prediction Two

Eddie Goldman will make the Pro Bowl.


Why?

  • Goldman is the most underrated player on this roster because he plays one of the game’s least flashy positions. It is difficult for monstrous blocker eaters to make the Pro Bowl or win awards because they don’t light up the stat sheet. So a secondary part of this prediction is Goldman will get to 7 sacks on the season, just 1.5 shy of his career total.
  • The league slept on Akiem Hicks a year ago. That won’t be the case in 2018 so it shouldn’t be surprising if opposing offensive coordinators scheme Hicks out of games. Chicago’s lack of rush prowess off the edge should make this a forgone conclusion. Goldman will have the opportunity to dominate.
  • Nose tackles take time to hit their stride in the NFL. It took until his fifth season in the league for Haloti Ngata to mount a five-sack campaign. He went on to mount three straight, elevating his status in the league dramatically. It’ll only take Goldman until his fourth season to start climbing the league’s respect ladder.

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Four Bold Predictions for the 2018 Chicago Bears: Prediction One

| August 30th, 2018

Skipping the 50 Bold Predictions column this year. Too much work for too little payoff. Instead this space will be focused on predictions for this vintage of the Chicago Bears over the coming days.


Prediction One

Trey Burton will break Martellus Bennett’s single-season catch record for a TE by catching 92 passes.


Why?

  • The Andy Reid / Doug Pederson / Matt Nagy offense is often referred to as tight end heavy but that’s also been due to a string of terrific tight ends coming through their systems. Burton has spent time in this system, Nagy knows what he’s getting and Mitch Trubisky will rely on the tight end heavily in his first year navigating a professional offense.
  • No player had excited this coaching staff more than Adam Shaheen. I’d been hearing glowing things about him since the spring and he was poised for a monster year, especially in the red zone. Shaheen’s absence – which I believe will be substantial – should provide even more opportunities for Burton.
  • Burton can block. He can block quite well. Which means he’ll stay in the game for short-yardage and goal line situations. It means he’ll not only stand up outside but he’ll also play off the tackle. More opportunities.

Season line: 92 catches, 1,118 yards, 7 touchdowns.

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Did the Matt Nagy Bears Become a Team on Saturday?

| August 27th, 2018

There was a time, when I was a younger man, I would have taken David “Blue Moon” Haugh’s latest exercise in journalistic futility and dissected every single sentence, right down to the incorrect placement of punctuation. I would have shown you that not only was the work devoid of intellectual competence, but also another shining example of why it’s not a wise idea to hire someone for a writer’s position who isn’t good at writing. Haugh’s greatest crime is not his transparent attempts to write his blowhard nonsense into a daily spot on Around the Horn. No, his greatest crime is against the English language itself. That the same newspaper can employ both Blue Moon and the great Rick “Drinks Like an Actual Man” Pearson blows my fucking mind daily.

But I am not that younger man. If you haven’t read Haugh’s take on head coach Matt Nagy’s decision to bench his starters for the team’s fourth practice game, don’t. There will be no link provided here and don’t waste a valuable minute of your life searching it out. Instead, read a few chapters of John McCain’s wonderful book Faith of My Fathers or Neil Simon’s Biloxi Blues or some classic Royko columns being run in the Sun-Times. Hell, just read anything else.

What Matt Nagy achieved this weekend, in a practice game, was somewhat extraordinary.

Forget the result. The result means nothing. Nobody in their right mind believes the second units of the Chicago Bears are better than the first units of the Kansas City Chiefs, a playoff team a year ago. Nobody in their right mind believes Chase Daniel is a rare combination of Joe Montana’s accuracy and Steve Young’s elusiveness. Nobody in their right mind believes anything they see on the preseason field, except Denny Green of course, but was he ever in his right mind?

So what mattered?

Team Building

While Dan Pompei believed Nagy’s decision to rest players sent “the wrong message” and was an example of coaching “scared”, the sideline reflected the exact opposite.

Mitch Trubisky was the game’s loudest cheerleader, especially when it came to the play of his backup. The starters erupted in support of Kevin White’s first touchdown in a Bears uniform. Players like Danny Trevathan and Tarik Cohen were seen rushing to greet their teammates as they came off the field from a successful drive. These guys were engaged and excited. Why?

Because NFL starters, especially veterans, don’t want to play in these games. They don’t want to risk their long-term financial security in physical contests that count neither in the standings nor in the stat column that ultimately determines how many zeroes are on their paychecks.

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The Best Collection of Thoughts Ever Assembled on the Bears v. Chiefs Practice Game

| August 25th, 2018

LAKE FOREST, IL – MAY 16: Chicago Bears wide receiver Marlon Brown (81) participates during the Bears OTA session on May 16, 2018 at Halas Hall, in Lake Forest, IL. (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire)


Twitter exploded with the news that Matt Nagy was putting his entire roster on the bench. Hell, even Josh Bellamy got the afternoon off. But who types primarily with his middle fingers and is happier than a clam about the news? This guy.

  • Matt Nagy’s decision to sit the bulk of his starting lineup isn’t bold or brilliant. It’s practical. He’d rather his first units be a little bit rusty on opening night than be without any of their best players. Even this idea is kind of kooky because the Bears are still fifteen days from their first real game. How could 25 snaps in the preseason carryover for half a month? That’s not how football works.
  • Why is Nick Kwiatkoski starting? Perhaps because he’s not the starting ILB? Kwik has had a good summer but he’s simply not in the same athletic stratosphere as Roquan Smith. Expect the Bears to spend the next two weeks getting their number one pick ready for Green Bay.
  • Marlon Brown’s downfield block was the key to the opening drive Benny Cunningham TD. And it continues Brown’s strong summer. Hate to make everything about Kevin White but it just feels like his relevance is sliding continually as players like Brown show versatility.
  • Chase Daniel has really gotten better each time I’ve seen him this preseason. Looks poised. But his legs were damn impressive against Kansas City’s first-team defense.
  • Kylie Fitts has found himself one-on-one with the opposing quarterback, in the backfield, several times this preseason. The QB has escaped each time. That Fitts is in position to make big plays is a good thing. That he’s not making will land him on the practice squad. (Update: Later in the game, against some QB I’ve never heard of, Fitts finished a play.)

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