Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Administrative Note: The Weekend Show will return Super Bowl week and continue to run throughout the off-season. Our guests will not only be Bears-related but also branch out to other Chicago institutuions – bars, restaurants, culture, politics…etc. And we’ll do A LOT on the quarterbacks available in this draft.

Went 3-1 against the spread last week but only 2-2 picking winners. So I’m an alarmingly mediocre 4-4 ATS and 5-3 picking winners this postseason. Not good.

Packers +5 over FALCONS

Atlanta had the most impressive win of the division round. Took some body blows early from a proven contender and then did what this franchise has failed to do for what feels like a decade: knocked out an opponent. This is unquestionably the most exciting and dynamic offense left in the playoffs. But what I love about the construction of this roster is they are now equipped to hold a lead because of a young, exciting pass rush.

Will that matter against Aaron Rodgers? Nobody knows. Rodgers is now playing the quarterback position better than anyone in the history of the league. His receiving corps stinks. His running back is a slot receiver. He has a brilliant pass blocking offensive line but the rest of Ted Thompson’s team is the definition of mediocrity. Can Rodgers win this game? Of course he can. But I’m saying the magic runs out. Barely.

Falcons 41, Packers 38

Steelers +6 over PATRIOTS

I have no idea what to make of this game.

Houston’s defense was brilliant a week ago but were beaten by two things: (1) Weirdo Tom Brady moon balls his receivers managed to haul in and (2) their own quarterback throwing the ball to the other team. If the Patriots had either the Chiefs or Steelers on the other side of the field Saturday night, I don’t think they’re playing this week.

Kansas City should have beaten Pittsburgh but Andy Reid and Alex Smith executed an offensive game plan the league hasn’t seen since the invention of the forward pass. (Reid is quickly venturing into Schottenheimer territory.)

Here’s what I know. Le’Veon Bell is amazing, Bill Belichick knows that and agenda item number one for the Patriots will be stopping him. If they do, they win. If they don’t…?

Patriots 24, Steelers 21

Is it a generic, almost clichéd way to approach the Championship games? Yes. But after years of writing about the Bears in January – whilst the Bears are often in hibernation – this is what we got. The four remaining teams in the NFL playoffs have valuable lessons to teach the Bears moving forward.

QUARTERBACKS

Tom Brady beat Brock Osweiler. Aaron Rodgers beat Dak Prescott. Ben Roethlisberger beat Alex Smith. Matt Ryan beat Russell Wilson. I understand that football is the ultimate team game but it isn’t coincidence that the four better quarterbacks all advanced this past weekend.

There are three kinds of teams in the NFL.

• Teams with star quarterbacks that can compete for titles every single season.
• Teams with better-than-average quarterbacks who won’t be in the postseason every year but can still be good enough to win a title here or there.
• Everybody else.

All four of these teams belong in the first category. (And half the league spends their time debating whether their quarterback is a category 2 or category 3 man.)

CONTINUITY

Three of the four coaches remaining are also three of the five longest tenured in the NFL. But…they’ve also had a franchise quarterback in their holster for the duration of their tenure.

IF DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS…

…how do you explain the NFC? Green Bay and Atlanta play little defense and are more than likely to blow their over/under of 61.5 out of the water.

Here’s how the eight teams that played in the Division round ranked in points allowed per game this season:

1 – Pats (win)

3 – Seahawks (loss)

5 – Cowboys (loss)

7 – Chiefs (loss)

10 – Steelers (win)

11 – Texans (loss)

21 – Packers (win)

27 – Falcons (win)

What do the four conference finalists have in common, however? All four are top 10 in turnover ratio. The lesson: you can survive playing subpar defense if you take the ball away from the opponent more than they take the ball away from you.

DaBearsBlog is celebrating a birthday in New Orleans this weekend. Should anything of note happen in Bearsland, I’ll be sure to put something up. Otherwise I will be spending my weekend on the 15th at English Turn, cozying up on the front corner stool at Napoleon House and gorging on Willie Mae’s fried chicken.

Picks for the weekend:

3-1 picking winners last weekend. But a miserable 1-3 ATS.

Falcons -4.5 over Seahawks

Patriots -15.5 over Texans

Chiefs -1.5 over Steelers

Packers +4.5 over Cowboys (Dallas 30, Packers 28)

There are three players in tonight’s national title game between Clemson and Alabama worth paying special attention to from a Bears perspective.

Jonathan Allen, DE, Alabama

By the time the draft arrives, Allen will be the consensus pick to the Bears…if he makes it that far. Daniel Jeremiah is in love with Allen, well-reported in his piece for NFL.com:

I reached out to five NFL personnel executives to find out who Allen reminds them of at the NFL level. Here’s a look at their responses.

Executive 1: Richard Seymour
“Allen isn’t as long or as tall as Seymour, but I see him as the same type of player. He’s very talented.”

Executive 2: Sheldon Richardson
“This is a tough one. He reminds me a little of Sheldon Richardson. Similar size. However, Richardson had more juice and Allen is stronger.”

Executive 3: Ndamukong Suh
“I haven’t come up with a great comparison for him. I do see some similarities to Suh when he was at Nebraska.”

Executive 4: Brandon Graham
“He is a really good player but I don’t view him the same as some of the top interior guys like (Geno) Atkins and (Aaron) Donald. He’s a tweener, similar to Brandon Graham when he was coming out of Michigan. Good player, not an elite player.”

Executive 5: Gerald McCoy
“He’s a tougher, grittier version of Gerald McCoy.”

Summary: That’s one vote apiece for Graham, McCoy, Richardson, Seymour and Suh.

Conclusion: I’ve struggled to come up with my own comparison for Allen. I compared him to Jurrell Casey after studying him this summer, but I no longer think it fits. He’s more powerful than Casey and I think he’s more versatile, too. In my opinion, he dominates college games similar to the way Suh dominated games at Nebraska. However, I think Suh had rare strength and power. I don’t put Allen in that class. I look forward to watching the rest of Allen’s season and hopefully I’ll be able to settle on a comparison with more time to study him leading up to the 2017 NFL Draft.

A defensive line of Allen, Goldman and Hicks in 2017 would make the Bears front an absolute force. Not the flashiest bunch by any means but strong, tough and borderline immovable.

Mike Williams, WR, Clemson

You know who Mike Williams reminds me of? Mike Williams. Seriously, can we stop with all these wide receivers named Mike Williams? It’s confusing.

Read More …

Miami +10 over PITTSBURGH

28-13 Steelers late. Matt Moore brings the Dolphins down the field for a solid backdoor cover.

Steelers 28, Dolphins 20

New York +4.5 over GREEN BAY

Three reasons:

• Green Bay’s win out has been wildly overrated. They are a few weeks removed from blowing a 17 point lead to Matt Barkley. Packers are here because the NFC North was an unmitigated disaster in 2016.
• Not sure people realize how good this Giants secondary is. There’s not a pass catching threat on the Pack that will give them problems, as long as they don’t allow Rodgers to run around and buy time.
• It’s the tournament. You’ve seen what Eli does in these games, right?

Giants 17, Packers 13

The Picks For Today

Oakland +4 over HOUSTON

You’ve heard the stat all week. Connor Cook is the first quarterback to make his first start in the postseason. And he’s doing so against one of the league’s best defenses. The gambler in me is screaming, “TAKE THE TEXANS!”

But I’m not doing it. Because I don’t think Brock Osweiler is any good and this seems like the perfect stage for him to formally end his Houston career. Not saying the Raiders win the game. Saying they keep it close.

Texans 16, Raiders 13

SEATTLE -7.5 over Detroit

Lions stink. And Devin Hester!

Seahawks 27, Lions 14

ON THE WEEKEND SHOW!

• Adam Jahns for a half hour, discussing what the postseason press conference means about the future of the Chicago Bears. Special focus on the quarterback position, Alshon Jeffery, Kyle Fuller, injuries to the 2015 draft and how to approach the secondary starting in March.
• Picks for the Wildcard Round: Raiders +3.5, Seattle -8, Miami +10, New York +4.5.
• Lots and lots of Shea McClellin talk!

Ryan Pace and John Fox addressed the media today. The following are my thoughts:

• Both Pace and Fox set the perfect tone for a 3-13 press conference. They acknowledged the injuries but made clear the results of the season were unacceptable.
• Pace sure sounded like a GM zeroing on the quarterback position this offseason. Made very clear that his decisions at that position this offseason will greatly impact the future of the organization. As Pace said, “Everything is on the table”.
• Bears only have 19 players on the roster from previous regime. That’s kind of amazing.
• Alshon Jeffery discussion was tepid. Pace did not sound like a GM willing to commit major resources to a player whose production – though excusable – has plummeted.
• “Ball security is critical” -John Fox. It was obvious from the head coach’s comments that he does not want a QB who throws the ball to the other team.
• Pace was on the money with his evaluation of the Bears secondary. They need to add playmakers with better ball skills.
• Pace is “not giving up on Kyle Fuller”. His commentary on Fuller was some of his most passionate. Fuller will be given every opportunity to compete for this team in 2017.
• Fox’s way of saying injuries cracked me up: “consistency of games available”.
• Pace believes Jonathan Bullard needed this year to learn to play defense a different way. He expects a leap next year.
• Both coordinators are staying.

I really like Ryan Pace. But this is a massive offseason for the young GM.

It’s so easy to look at the record, 3-13, and pronounce the Bears an awful team with no hope. But that simply isn’t what took place this season. The Bears were in year two of a rebuild, lost $60M worth of players to IR and played 6 of their 16 games with Matt Barkley at quarterback. Bill Belichick wasn’t getting this group to the postseason.

So what did we learn from this difficult campaign?

• The Bears found their offensive identity. The 2017 Bears will be defined on offense by a bully interior of their offensive line and the best power back they’ve had in recent memory, Jordan Howard. Expect every decision made on that side of the ball this offseason to complement this approach. And don’t be surprised if the Bears look to add another back to the rotation who can provide more than a spell for their workhorse.
• The team does not have one reliable player in their secondary. The Bears won’t come into next season with seven new guys in their secondary. They’ll continue to develop players like LeBlanc, Hall, Callahan, Amos and maybe even Bush and HJQ. But the team must make secondary the primary focus of the spring and add several – not one or two but several – valuable assets to this unit.
• Pass rush, pass rush, pass rush. Leonard Floyd looks the part. Pernell McPhee should be healthy come September. But the Bears must add to their pass rush. Whether that means finding rushers for the defensive line or zeroing in on a top edge guy in the draft, the only way for this team to increase their turnover total is to increase the pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
• Ryan Pace deserves our faith. Look at Pace’s additions this offseason: Sitton, Whitehair, Howard, Floyd, Freeman, Trevathan, Hicks, Massie. Every one of them a significant improvement. Hell, even Hoyer and Barkley kept the Bears competitive as backups. The Bears had their best offseason in terms of personnel additions in years. Now they face two huge questions this time around. Is Alshon going to be brought back? Who is playing quarterback? Pace deserves a chance to answer both.
• John Fox may not. Fox will get 2017. But he will get no more excuses.

The arrow is pointed decidedly up. But just as one great offseason can move the organization in the right direction, a bad offseason can derail the train as quickly. The next five years of Bears football will be defined by what Ryan Pace does between now and Bourbonnais.