Friday night, news leaked that Mitchell Trubisky would be the Bears’ week 1 starting QB. While this is a decision that greatly surprises me, I want to explore what the Bears need from Trubisky in order to make it work.

This immediately led me to look for what he has done differently when he has been the most successful in his Bears career. There was actually a stretch in 2018 when he performed pretty well, starting with his breakout game against Tampa Bay in week 4 and continuing until he hurt his shoulder against the Vikings in week 11. In that 7 game stretch, Trubisky was 138 of 217 for 18 TD, 6 INT, and a 107.3 passer rating. Not every game in there was good – he had 3 games with a passer rating below 80 – but overall it was easily the most impressive stretch of his career, as you can see below (note: I’m ignoring his rookie season in 2017 and focusing solely on what he has done in this offense the last 2 years).

Three things stand out to me here:

1. He moved the ball efficiently. Look at that yards/attempt; it’s beautiful. For context, the average NFL pass gained 6.7 yards in 2019. Trubisky was well above that for one magical seven game stretch, but has been below it for the rest of his career. And this isn’t just a one-game outlier; Trubisky was above 10 yards/attempt in three of the 7 games, and only below 6.5 in one of them. For a little more context, 8.7 yards/attempt would have ranked 2nd in the NFL last year, while Trubisky’s 6.1 yards/attempt was last in the NFL among qualified quarterbacks.
2. He threw touchdowns. 4.5% of all passes thrown in the NFL in 2019 went for touchdowns. In that seven game stretch, Trubisky was nearly double that. Even if you remove the Tampa Bay game as an outlier, he’s still at 6.3% for the other 6 games, which is well above league average. For the rest of his career, he has struggled mightily to throw touchdowns.
3. His legs were a weapon. This has more to do with running efficiency than volume, though you can see he also ran more often when he was at his best. From weeks 4-11 of 2018, Trubisky averaged over 8 yards/carry, while he was around 4 yards/carry in the other samples.

Those are the differences. Trubisky didn’t throw it more or less often than in other times, he didn’t complete more passes, and he didn’t avoid interceptions. He just gained more yards, threw more touchdowns, and ran it more effectively.

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The two quarterbacks

Dueled in the Chicago sun.

Anybody win?

Mack, motivated.

Fear is coming off the edge.

Hell follows with him.

As a long-suffering Bears fan, it’s become a semi-tradition to dust off the gem above every September as kick-off nears.

Maybe it’s to try to hype myself up like a haka dance.

Maybe it’s to steel myself.

Maybe it’s so I just don’t check out entirely in order to do something more productive, or at least far less infuriating, than watching yet another Bears season.

I glance at IG stories with a hint of envy. There’s my homie on top of a Malibu hiking trail overlooking the Pacific. There’s my other friend training for a marathon and MMA. Another smoking a blunt at a BBQ. There’s that chick sipping mimosas poolside.

And here I am in my mancave, screaming at the pirated, pixelated Bears, venting online to some internet Fight Club support group.

And yet I keep doing it. Season after season, year after year.

My step-dad, a hard working earnest man, always asks me with a shit-eating grin, “You ready for a new season?” It comes complete with a mixture of pity and admiration. Then it just trails off in his drawl, “I dunno how you do it” and he’s off to work on his 57 Studebaker.

Honestly, I never used to think about it. It just became habit – like being stuck in a bad marriage. Aristotle once observed that most don’t even recognize the best time of their lives until much later and the same can apply to the worst times.

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[REDACTED] is a fella I’ve known for a long time and he’s made some appearances on this here site previously. He’s a neighborhood friend, who just happens to be a high-profile member of a professional football organization. His brother is somebody who can drink as much Guinness as I can. (And that ain’t easy to do.) It’s been a crazy summer but I finally got him to respond to an email.

———-

DBB: I think the Bears have one of the best defenses in the league. So here’s my hypothetical question. Aside from injuries, if they’re not a great defense, why?

[REDACTED]: I got nothing, Jeff. They’re not great opposite Fuller or Jackson on the back end but with that front they don’t have to be. Nobody can afford eleven All-Pros on either side of the ball but that defense is pretty close. Without Goldman, they need Hicks to stay healthy or the middle of their defensive line could become an issue against the run.  

DBB: Do you think Ryan Pace will start Mitch Trubisky to protect his own ego?

[REDACTED]: Once they declined the fifth year, they made their feelings pretty well-known around the league. But we do feel ownership over the guys we draft, especially the guys we draft early. He and Matt will be looking for signs from Trubisky whereas they won’t be with Foles. They know what they’re getting there. But our folks just think Trubisky doesn’t process the game fast enough and that deficiency doesn’t reveal itself until Sundays. 

I drafted a back once. Fought like hell in the organization for him. We took him relatively early and in camp we thought we found the next Barry Sanders. His first action was later on in our second preseason game and he was lost. Third preseason game was worse. Kid never got off the practice squad. I still defend the pick. I mean, I was clearly wrong about him but I defend picking him.

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After visible training camp practices concluded Saturday, nearly ever beat reporter had Nick Foles ahead of Mitch Trubisky in the team’s quarterback competition. That tells us all we need to know about Trubisky.

(In fairness, those on the Bears beat are hardly experts when it comes to judging quarterbacks and nobody has any actual idea what the Bears are looking for. But all reports have indicated that Trubisky has yet to grow out of the maddening inconsistencies that led to Foles being acquired in the first place.)

Whether it’s running out of bounds for a two-yard loss instead of throwing the ball away, making questionable decisions or throwing scattershot incompletions and interceptions, Trubisky has seemingly looked exactly like the player he has been throughout his career.

That might be surprising to some because there was at least a portion of the fan base that thought Trubisky’s faults weren’t actually his in the first place and blamed his shoulder injury, which came after he already had three mostly bad showings, as well as his offensive and his skill players and the moon and the stars. Even for the more realistic fans, there was at least some hope that Trubisky would be more motivated this year. In a contract year, with a challenger looking him in the face, how could Trubisky not be at his best?

Well maybe we’ve already seen his best.

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Saturday would have been the third preseason game; the final opportunity for those trying to grab the 2-3 spots at the bottom of the roster. Instead Saturday was just another Saturday, and the last time any laymen would have an opportunity to look at the 2020 Chicago Bears before their season opener.

How Different This Summer Has Been

Writing about an NFL team has a seasonal rhythm to it. After the dead period of May and June, July begins a slow, deliberate crescendo to the nervously thrilling first whistle of opening day. In my case, there’s always a boozy, beachy Labor Day weekend that serves as a calm before the season’s storm. Then that Tuesday it’s all day, every day, until the season ends. Not this year, except for the boozy bit.

No fans at training camp has meant no leaked video or secretive email reports. These usually start flooding my email box on the first day of camp and don’t stop. And honestly, they’re pretty helpful. Last year, while many were excited about the prospect of Riley Ridley making a rookie impact, I was getting word early on that the kid was completely overwhelmed by the professional game. Turned out to be the truth.

The media isn’t shown anything of worth anymore and now can’t say much about what they are shown. So we’re left with scraps of reports.

No joint practices or preseason games means there’s nothing to which we can tangibly react, which has predictably taken all the dramatic steam out of the quarterback competition. This summer, for the first time since I started doing this, I was excited for the preseason because it was going to determine the starting quarterback.

Instead the season will just…start. Sunday September 13th will come. We will all wake up, have our breakfast, settle into our routines, and the game will begin. And fans across the league will be surprised by what they see.

Statement from Chicago Bears Players

Like many in the sports world, the Bears took a pause on Thursday to meet and discuss the racial issues facing our country. Their statement:

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It’s remarkable to think the NFL is going to kickoff the 2020 season in Kansas City two weeks from yesterday. But barring a Covid tsunami or another testing lab debacle in New Jersey or the players mounting an NBA-style walkout, the show will seemingly go on. So with so little time remaining before they start keeping score, what don’t we know about the 2020 Chicago Bears?

How Will the Backfield Look?

In the wake of David Montgomery’s injury, the Bears could use Cordarrelle Patterson and Tarik Cohen to piece together their backfield. Or they could elevate the status of undrafted free agent Artavis Pierce. And why not? We see “scrap heap” type backs emerge around the league every year. If Juan Castillo gets them blocking up front, Pierce could become as a key component of the offense. Why not give the kid a shot to carry the load? He’s got talent.

Who is the Quarterback?

A tale of two tweets.

Tweet 1.

Amazing panel of 7 #Bears reporters. Most believe Foles has slight edge now, but end result was a 4-3 projection that Trubisky will start vs #Lions in opener. This shocked us. @DickersonESPN @danwiederer @kfishbain @dmillerabc7 @MarkPotash @patrickfinley @JJStankevitz pic.twitter.com/62K4QAH5Hr

— Silvy (@WaddleandSilvy) August 26, 2020

Tweet 2.

As far as the #Bears QBs, Nick Foles turned in the best period we’ve seen thus far. More on that later as well. pic.twitter.com/EG4o0H1dtq

— Adam Jahns (@adamjahns) August 26, 2020

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It’s a weird position, running back. While many, including myself, had high expectations for Montgomery, every year we see a half dozen backs emerge off the free agent scrap heap and have productive seasons. If the Bears get decent quarterback and line play, they should be able to survive losing Montgomery for an extended period without taking too much of a hit.

Now they must search for his replacement. Options include:

• C.J. Prosise
• Devonta Freeman
• Spencer Ware
• Bilal Powell

Flip called Nick Foles a point guard. Nagy has praised #BDN’s ability to process information. It’s these two attributes that should make him the frontrunner to start against the Detroit Lions in a few weeks.

The reasons why are pretty simple.

(1) The Bears have a pretty standard 1-2 punch at wide receiver with Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller. But outside of that combination they’re going to be looking at a unique collection of players to move the football through the air. Tarik Cohen and Cordarrelle Patterson are hybrid backs that present match-up problems. Jimmy Graham is a “tight end” who doesn’t block but has shown a propensity to be uncoverable down in the red zone. These are guys who need the football in their hands quickly, and in space. A second or two of indecision from the quarterback could cost the Bears a big play.

(2) This team’s offensive line is not as bad as many suggest but they’re not one of the league’s best units, especially on the outside. Both Charles Leno and Bobby Massie are good players but they’re unlikely to hold the edge for 4-5 seconds. It will be imperative for the signal caller of this offense to read the defense QUICKLY and get the ball out of his hands. This has been one of the more intense weaknesses in Mitch Trubisky’s game.

(3) Who is more accurate with the deep ball? It’s not very close. From Data a while back:

Both have a very low completion percentage, but Foles is around league average in yards/attempt, while Trubisky is awful there. This suggests that Foles takes deeper “deep” shots, and thus gets a higher yards/completion mark to make up for his low completion percentage.

Foles has higher than normal rates of both touchdowns and interceptions, which leaves him around the league average in TD:INT ratio on deep shots. I don’t put too much stock in these numbers for Foles due to a small sample size; he only has 89 deep passes compared to over 200 for every other QB in the table, so we’re talking a total of 8 TD and 6 INT here. Still, the data at least suggests to me that Foles is aggressive in his deep passes, giving his guys a chance to make a play but also leaving himself prone to defenders making a play on the ball.

And the Bears now have, in Teddy Ginn and rookie Darnell Mooney, two players capable of taking the top off every defense in the league.

This space will not be used only to argue for Foles starting over Trubisky. But unfortunately it’s incredible difficult to make the argument for the other side.