Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears. And they’re going for three straight and .500 at the bye! What’s not to like?

Hey Bears, Play Offense on Sunday

John Fox and Dowell Loggains need to walk into the Superdome Sunday assuming the Saints are going to score in the 20s. Why? Because the Saints always score in the 20s. We’re talking about a team, playing at home, that is:

• 4th in points and yards per game.
• 10th in rushing yards per game.
• 3rd in passing yards per game.
• Least sacked team in the entire NFL, allowing only 5, and they’ve played the Minnesota (ranked 4th), Carolina (ranked 3rd) and Miami (ranked 10th) defenses this season.

If Fox/Loggains operate the same offensive mathematical equation…

(Run for 2 + Run for 1) x [3rd-and-7 Throw Under Obvious Pressure] = Success?

…they’ll find themselves chasing the game. And the Bears are NOT built to chase any game.

Tweet of the Week

Halftime of MNF & Eagles lead. If they win, Bears will be one game back of the second wild card. And that team has Brett Hundley at QB.

— DaBearsBlog (@dabearsblog) October 24, 2017

Three Reasons the Bears Win

• Saints have one of the most balanced offenses in the league but the Bears can render an opponent one-dimensional with their suffocating run defense. There isn’t a pair of interior defensive linemen in the league playing to the standard of Hicks and Goldman and Sunday the Bears held Carolina backs to 21 carries, 58 yards – a staggering 2.76 yards per. If Bears can force Brees to drop back every down, they’ll get to him.
• On the flip side, the Bears should be able to line up and run the ball on a New Orleans defense allowing 4.9 yards per carry. Green Bay QB Brett Hundley couldn’t play Sunday – it was obvious to anyone watching – and Dennis Allen’s Saints defense still allowed Aaron Jones to go 17-131-1. This kept the game competitive into the fourth quarter. So just because they know you wanna run it doesn’t mean they can stop you.

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Does it mean Ryan Pace is going for it in 2017? Not necessarily. But it does mean the Bears GM saw an opportunity to improve this year’s roster and took it.

I was mad.

The Bears were ahead by fourteen with less than eight minutes to go. Victory was a near certainty. But was I happy? No.

Considering this is a team that won just three games last season and hasn’t won more than eight since 2012, my anger in that moment was not justifiable.

What I, and many Bears fans, must do is learn to embrace these 2017 Bears. They’re ugly, sure, but style points be damned! This team is tough. They are also a game away from .500 and, you know what, they’re kind of fun.

Their offense needs to be better. I don’t expect they’ll be able to win many more games like they have the last two weeks, but it is what it is. Nobody should expect them to win the Super Bowl, or even just light up the scoreboard through the air. This team will never do that.

But they can play defense and the last two weeks they’ve done that as well as anybody in the league.

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Only 3 QBs in last 30 years have won games completing 4 or fewer passes: Weinke (4), Tebow (2), Trubisky (4).

John Fox was HC all 3 times.

— Gil Brandt (@Gil_Brandt) October 24, 2017

A Few Jahns Takeaways

AJ After Dark knocked out his 14 Takeaways Monday afternoon and the final three stood out to me:

12. I also only counted two play-action plays — one being Trubisky’s overturned touchdown run and the other resulting in a sack in the third quarter.

Bears have to throw on early downs. It doesn’t matter how they do it but they can’t keep running into run looks and expecting better results.

13. Running back Tarik Cohen was on the field for only seven offensive snaps. He dropped two passes to go with his 70-yard reception and a 10-yard catch that was negated by a penalty.

If Bears are not going to play Kendall Wright, Cohen has to become the centerpiece of the outside passing game. Treat him like a wide receiver if you must. But keep him on the field.

14. Despite the offensive struggles, there is a positive vibe around the Bears. Players know Trubisky will get better; defense can be special.

I do worry how much Mitch Trubisky will develop and improve if he’s not given a chance to take part the game outside of special occasions.

Gameday Tweet That Cracked Me Up

Well, at least I get to tell my great-grandkids that I once lost a bet against an NFL team that had 4 completions.

— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) October 22, 2017

Trubisky “Embarrassed”?

Adam Hoge of WGN writes about Trubisky’s response to only throwing seven passes, even while the team registered a second straight win:

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Watching the Bears beat the Panthers a second time was not much more entertaining than watching them do it the first time. But I wanted to focus on the offensive snaps. Here’s what I thought:

• Trubisky was hard on himself in the postgame presser but he only made three mistakes in the game: taking the sack before the Barth missed FG, overthrowing Zach Miller and the delay of game in the fourth quarter. Could he have taken a few shots when the pocket collapsed around him? Sure. But why would he in a game the defense was dominating.
• I’m sure other franchises have done it but I’ve never seen a team so relentlessly run the ball into 8 and often 9-man fronts. The plays are only mildly successful (if that) because Jordan Howard is one of the toughest runners in the league. He gets every inch out of every carry.
• Kendall Wright played 8 snaps Sunday. Reminder: he is the best wide receiver on the team by a wide margin.
• Trubisky’s back shoulder fade to Cohen early was an absolutely perfect throw. It literally hit Cohen on his back shoulder. If Cohen catches the ball, he’s got a strong chance to take it to the house.
• Is there a chance these conservative game plans were specifically designed for Baltimore and Carolina – two solid defenses? Is it possible these two games were early run calls setting up a more explosive approach in the weeks to come? Am I only dreaming?

Here’s how Roger Ebert opened his review of Joe Versus the Volcano, the brilliantly odd 1990 film from John Shanley:

Gradually during the opening scenes of “Joe Versus the Volcano,” my heart began to quicken, until finally I realized a wondrous thing: I had not seen this movie before. Most movies, I have seen before. Most movies, you have seen before. Most movies are constructed out of bits and pieces of other movies, like little engines built from cinematic Erector sets. But not “Joe Versus the Volcano.”

I have never seen a football game like Sunday’s Bears/Panthers tilt. Never. Think about what took place.

• The Bears attempted 7 passes, completing 4 and only 1 to a wide receiver. And won by 2 touchdowns.
• The Bears averaged 3.1 yards per carry, with a long of 11 yards. And won by 2 touchdowns.
• The Bears ran 19 plays in the second half (sans kneel downs) for a grand total of 28 yards. And won by 2 touchdowns.
• The Bears were outgained in total yardage 293 to 153. And won by 2 touchdowns.
• The Bears had the football for 17 minutes less than the Panthers. And won by 2 touchdowns.
• The Bears got 15 less first downs than the Panthers. 15! And won by 2 touchdowns.

You could live to be a thousand years old and never see a game like this again. The iconic “They Are Who We Thought They Were” game from 2006 was not this lopsided statistically. Oddly enough, Trubisky’s four completions were matched that night by Rex Grossman’s four interceptions.

Sunday’s win over the Carolina Panthers was defined by one moment, one play. After Trubisky’s lunge for the end zone was deemed short, John Fox faced fourth-and-a-foot with about a minute remaining in the first half. If the Bears went and scored, they’d lead 21-3 and receive the ball to start the second half. If they went and failed, chances are the Panthers would have run the ball three times, forcing Chicago to burn their timeouts, but still giving the ball back to the Bears with enough time to score.

There was almost no reason NOT to go. John Fox did NOT hesitate. Field goal. 17-3.

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Well that was fun.

Chicago’s defense scored not one but two touchdowns and shut Carolina’s offense down, staking the Bears with an early lead that held up for the entire game. Even though the offense never really got anything going, this was the Bears’ easiest win in a long time.

Offense

• The Bears were up 14 points before the offense was really asked to do anything. That shifted an already conservative game plan even farther to the safe side, making them even more predictable. As a result, they went three and out with regularity, picking up only 153 yards and 5 first downs on the game. This forced the defense to spend too much time on the field and get tired; credit them for holding up under those conditions.
• Credit to the coaching staff for not sitting on a 14-3 lead with just over 3:00 left before halftime, like we all expected after watching their conservative approach this season. They came out and let Mitchell Trubisky throw deep to Tarik Cohen on 1st down, resulting in 70 yards and 1st and goal from the 5 yard line. They were unable to finish for the touchdown, but a field goal (plus a little rest for the defense) on that drive was key.
• The second half offense was just plain offensive. Prior to the final drive that ran out the clock, the Bears had the ball 5 times, picked up 3 total yards, and went 3 and out five times. At least they didn’t turn the ball over, I guess, and they were able to run out the last 3:36 of clock with two 1st downs on the ground. Read More …

Player: Derwin James, Safety, Florida State

Game: vs. Louisville, 11:00 AM CT

Video

What They’re Saying

• CBS’ Chris Trapasso on Oct. 10: “As usual, James was good against Miami, yet I’m not seeing the variety of game-altering plays this season he had in 2015. He was a true difference-maker as a freshman at all levels of the field. This year, not so much. James is a gargantuan safety prospect who runs like a slot cornerback, and when he’s rolling, he’s a tackling machine who also flies to the football in coverage.”
• From USA Today: “I think he’s every bit as good as anybody we’ve ever played against,” Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban said of the Seminoles safety, via the Orlando Sentinel. “This guy’s just a very aggressive player.”
• Chad Reuter of NFL.com: “James in an enforcer, pure and simple. Everyone expected him to return to form after missing most of last season. James doesn’t appear to have lost any closing speed, and he’s certainly not afraid of contact. His length will help him play in the box on Sundays, likely in the hybrid linebacker/safety role that’s currently in vogue.”

I Think…

• …the Bears will win too many games to pick James at their actual draft position. With that kind of athleticism, one has to believe he’ll blow minds in Indianapolis and be gone by the fifth pick.
• …I haven’t seen many defensive backs look as comfortable as James rushing from the edge. Then I see his coverage skills and wonder, “Is this kid going to change the safety position in the NFL?”
• …I love that he’s owning this disappointing FSU campaign. A Tomahawk Nation blog post featured James explaining he could have done more in their recent loss to North Carolina State. That kind of stand-up behavior in the face of adversity will delight NFL scouts.
• …the Bears should avoid drafting anybody who has an injury history.

Why Watch This Week

As Clemson QB Kelly Bryant struggles with injuries and FSU struggles to win enough games to get bowl eligible, there’s a good chance Lamar Jackson and the Cardinals will be the most explosive, multidimensional offense James faces the rest of this season. Against a run/pass threat like Jackson, safeties have to be at their most disciplined and their most aggressive. Over-pursuit can lead to big plays down the field and staying back on your heels can lead to the mobile quarterback sprinting by you down the sideline. With some believing Jackson will play on Sundays (not quite sure if I’m one of them) this is the right quarterback to evaluate James against.