This is how we begin each season and it shall never change.

This is how we begin each season and it shall never change.

Because he must rant. Because he lives to rant. Because ranting is to the Reverend as booze is to the alcoholic. It is the fuel that wakes him in the morning and drives him through rush hour traffic.

It is the first of sixteen guaranteed game previews that will occupy this space and I’ve never been so happy to write anything. So…

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?

I ALWAYS LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS

BUT WHAT FOOTBALL REASONS, JEFF?

• If you’re Marvin Lewis and Mike Zimmer, what offensive film are you studying this week? Do you break down the tape of the Trestman/Gannon Raiders? Do you look at the CFL film to see what attack Trestman had Anthony Calvillo execute? Do you put any serious consideration into the plays run this preseason? This will be the most general defensive approach the Bengals take all season long because there’s no way to know what they’re going to see.
• After Kelly and Haynesworth signed deals to make them zillionaire defensive tackles, their quality of play slipped. Is the reason motivation? Will Geno Atkins continue the trend?
• Where is the player on the Bengals defense who can contain Matt Forte in the screen game? I can’t find him on the roster.
• I like the way James Harrison plays football. I think the NFL needs people like Harrison around. But his position change can not be understated. It is a difficult transition and I would expect a three or four-week period is necessary for him to feel comfortable.
• Either you believe in Kyle Long and Jordan Mills or you don’t. I do. And the two rookies on the right side know they (1) have something to prove in real non-preseason action and (2) can prove it against top shelf competition on opening day in front of the home fans. I expect an intense, angry performance from both.
• Bears are better at QB, RB, overall depth of WR, LB, secondary and specials. In that scenario they should not lose at home.

DA BEAR CONCERNS

• Bears concern #1: the 2012 Cincinnati Bengal were a wonderful road team, finishing the regular season at 6-2. Even though there road schedule was almost painfully easy they did win at Washington to open the season and at Pittsburgh in December. They won’t be intimidated by their surroundings.
• Bears concern #2: the middle of the defense. I’d expect Jay Gruden to test the new Bears linebackers – Bostic, Williams, Anderson – in coverage and unleash both Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert. Even when Urlacher was at full strength the Bears were susceptible to tight ends up the seam. It won’t get better Sunday.
• Bears concern #3: Giovani Bernard screens. I expect the Bears pass rush to explode onto Soldier Field Sunday but Bernard has that Sproles-like explosiveness capable of turning a bail out screen into a fifty-yard touchdown. Again, the pressure slides to the rebuilt linebacking corps.

THE MATCH-UP OF REMARKABLE IMPORTANCE

Peanut Tillman vs. A.J. Greene

• With Hawkins injured the Bengals passing game will be significantly reliant upon their all-worLd WR Greene to dominate on the outside. Lovie Smith (for the most part) lined up Tillman on one side of the field and Jennings/other corner on the other and left them there. Will Mel Tucker follow suit or will he stick his best on their best and let the best man win?

GREAT QUOTES

From Andrew Hawkins:

“I probably wouldn’t be in the NFL had I not had the opportunity to play for him,” Hawkins said via the Chicago Sun-Times. “He taught me how to be a professional — about my work, my attitude. I’ve said it numerous times: I thank God for the opportunity to play under him, because I don’t think I’d be where I am today without him.”

Hawkins played two seasons for the Montreal Alouettes (2009-10) under Trestman, posting 41 receptions, 457 yards receiving and five touchdowns. Their relationship is further documented in Mark Potash’s posting, which also reflects the receivers’ perspective on his current head coach Marvin Lewis in comparison to his former mentor.

‘‘I have a great coach in Marvin Lewis — he lights a fire under you. He wants to motivate you verbally and get you to go out there and get things done. That’s a great way to do it. With Marc, what’s so unique about him is you’re not used to seeing that style in a football setting. He doesn’t raise his voice very much. He tells you exactly what he wants in the same tone. He’ll tell you you’re wrong in the same tone he tells you ‘Great job.’ It’s unique. I think it works. You buy into it. I think you don’t have a choice but to buy into it because it’s proven.’’

THE MOST INTERESTING PLAYER ON THE FIELD

• Devin Hester. Some people out there – fans, bloggers, media types – believed Hester was on the roster bubble for 2013. I never believed he was and people I spoke with told me, without pause, “Hester is viewed as a weapon by the organization”. Hester’s touches Sunday will be the most interesting of the afternoon. Is it still there? Is the ability to electrify a city with the mere act of catching a punt still there? Imagine if Hester takes one to the house Sunday. The shock waves it would send through the league…

THIS VIDEO HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH FOOTBALL…

A SINGLE STAT PREDICTION

• Neither team rushes for 100 yards.

WRAPPING IT UP IN ONE SENTENCE…

• Both the Bengals and Bears defenses will control this game but the Bears are at home and will win the field position battle due to a resurgent performance from Hester.

FINAL SCORE.

Chicago Bears 20, Cincinnati Bengals 13

Tonight’s game prediction:

Denver Broncos 27, Baltimore Ravens 13

I am re-running my ruminations/predictions column from August 27. This column will also serve as tonight’s opening game thread.

I do it every year and have been 50% or better on predictions each year I’ve done em. This year I mix and match prediction with ruminations. Every team gets at least one mention with an overwhelming emphasis on your 2013 Chicago Bears.

1. I think the Bears win the NFC North.
2. Without Nicks and Cruz healthy I don’t see the Giants as more than an 8-8 team. And Nicks and Cruz are never healthy at the same time. Also, I think it’s odd that Victor Cruz signed a lucrative contract extension and a week later: “I think the No. 1 wideout is Hakeem Nicks,” Cruz said. “I mean, he’s been here longer, he understands this offense. He’s our big-play guy, he’s on the outside. So I definitely think he’s our No. 1 receiver, there’s no doubt about it.” To use the Andrew Brandt approach, translation: Yeah I’m rich but don’t expect too much.
3. Second point on the Giants. What’s their aversion to having talented linebackers? In the late 80s/early 90s the Giants had Lawrence Taylor, Carl Banks and Harry Carson playing LB and now they have Mark Herzlich, Keith Rivers, Spencer Paysinger, Jacquian Williams…etc.?
4. Enough on the Giants, Jeff! Okay.
5. Cowboys have an offensive head coach (Jason Garret) whose been stripped of his play-calling duties (in favor of Bill Callahan) and has a legendary defensive coordinator (Monte Kiffin) put in place. Find me any time in the history of football where this kind of setup worked.
6. I’m rooting against Chip Kelly because I just don’t like him. I think these college coaches who cheat the system, leave their programs to be ravaged by the NCAA and flee to the NFL are one of the lowest life forms in the sporting universe. And his quarterback is a dog killer. And his team plays in Philadelphia. Has there been a team in recent memory this easy to root against? 4th place in the NFC East.
7. If Robert Griffin III plays 12+ games in 2013 the Redskins win the division. If he plays fewer it’s a crap shoot.
8. I think Matt Forte will eclipse 1,750 yards total from scrimmage this year. If he gets to 2,000 he will be a top two or three candidate for MVP.
9. The Bears need eighteen sacks out of Shea McClellin, Corey Wootton and Henry Melton. I say they get it.
   
10. Norv Turner is probably the modern era’s finest offensive coordinator but I’m not buying the preseason Brandon Weeden hype.
11. I think Jarvis Jones is going to be one hell of a Steelers linebacker.
12. When Joe Flacco drops back to pass and Torrey Smith is covered downfield…where is he throwing the ball? Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin are the reasons Joe is much, much richer these days. I don’t see the replacements on that roster.
13. There is no more important in the whole of the NFL than Andy Dalton. You think that’s an exaggeration? It’s not. The Bengals lineup is loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. If Dalton plays well they are title contenders. If he struggles, they struggle.
14. I think Devin Hester finds the end zone three times year.
15. I think the Bears offense will finish the season ranked 14th in the NFL.
16. I think Jay Cutler will throw more than 30 TDs and less than 15 INTs.
17. How does the Detroit Lions buzz start each year? Do all of the national writers look at their roster, see the talented guys and declare them ready for the postseason at once? Where are they better in 2013 than they were in 2012? Reggie Bush? That just isn’t enough for me.
18. I think Matt Cassel starts more games than Christian Ponder at QB for the Minnesota Vikings. I don’t think injuries will be involved.
19. The reason Brett Favre never missed a game in all that time: luck. Not toughness. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are every bit as tough as Favre  but you can’t out-tough a torn ACL or dislocated neck. And Favre was a big fan of playing poorly whilst injured and blaming the injury after the fact – because he’s an asshole. If Aaron Rodgers keeps taking hits the hits will take their toll. And this looks to me like a worse offensive line than he had a year ago.
20. Brandon Marshall will catch 106 passes.
21. Matt Forte will catch 67.
22. Alshon Jeffery will catch 48.
23. Martellus Bennett will catch 44.
24. Earl Bennett will catch 38.
25. The Jaguars play in Jacksonville, Florida. My brother lives there. (This fulfills my obligation to discuss every team.)
26. From our friend Jim Wyatt at The Tennessean: “Several others are also having an impressive camp, but [Chris] Johnson has been turning heads since the first practice. He’s in good shape, looks explosive and re-energized. Early signs are he’s going to benefit greatly from having Shonn Green around to help shoulder the rushing load.” Why do I think the Titans won’t be too bad this year?
27. My prediction for Breakout Player of 2013: Colts WR T.Y. Hilton. Reggie Wayne was excellent in 2012 but I think Andrew Luck passes the baton to his new favorite target in 2013. I say 82 catches, over a 1,000 yards and over 10 touchdowns.
28. It is not easy to be the Houston Texans. They won’t play a game that truly matters this season until January. Eventually these Super Bowl or Bust teams either win the fucking thing or implode. It’s usually the latter.
29. Adam Podlesh will cost the Bears in a big spot this year.
    
30. Bears will struggle to defend the middle of the field early in the season due to a severe learning curve for Frey and Bostic.
31. The most important statistic for Jay Cutler this year will be average completion (sans YAC). If he is completing a majority of his passes within the 3-10 yard range he is executing this offense and not taking reckless chances from a collapsing pocket.
32. There are three teams in the AFC East who did not lose their best wide receiver to free agency. There are three teams in the AFC East who did not lose their best tight end to another in a long line of debilitating injuries. There are three teams in the AFC East who did not lose one of their most valued weapons because it turns out he’s a mass murdering fuckhead. And I didn’t even consider picking one of those three teams to win the division. #TomBrady
33. Peyton Manning with Wes Welker is the most perfect pairing of veteran quarterback/receiver since Randy Moss signed to catch balls from Tom Brady.
34. Why I like the Chiefs this year: (1) They’ve erased their two most significant issues by replacing the head coach and quarterback. (2) They have four games against the Raiders and Chargers.
35. How long ago was it Phil Rivers was being discussed as one of the best quarterbacks in the sport? Probably back when he had Darren Sproles and Vincent Jackson and good players around him.
36. I almost feel bad for Terrelle Pryor. He’s not good. He’s just not Matt Flynn, who is wretched.
37. Seahawks GM John Schneider has been rightfully lauded for his recent drafts but this is the same man who traded for and paid Flynn millions based on one game. NFL personnel decisions are 8% analysis, 92% luck. Seahawks should have paid for that decision for years but instead the whole league – including them – passed on Russell Wilson twice.
38. San Francisco is just good everywhere. If they are not in the postseason they’ve been ravaged by injuries.
39. When is the last time Larry Fitzgerald had a professional quarterback throwing him passes? Expect one of those eye-opening statistical performances from him in 2013. I think this year’s Carson Palmer-to-Fitz targets will make last year’s Cutler-to-Marshall targets look puny.
40. Has anybody mentioned the name Tavon Austin this preseason? No. The reason is simple: Jeff Fisher is too smart a coach to risk a potentially game-changing superstar for the sake of what naive fans call “reps”. I hear it all the time on Twitter. THIS GUY NEEDS REPS! THIS GUY NEEDS REPS! You know which players need reps? Fringe ones.
41. The biggest surprise on the Bears defense this year will be the emergence of Chris Conte as one of the game’s best safeties.
42. Robbie Gould will not miss a field goal of less than 45 yards all season.
43. Bears will no longer be futile on third-and-one because they’ll hand the ball to Michael Bush and tell him to follow #75.
44. I was watching a Broncos preseason game and after Peyton Manning had been pulled from a game, he kept his helmet on. When a trainer came by and take it from him Peyton pointed to his ear. He was listening to the play calls in his helmet and watching the execution. This is what Cam Newton was doing when he was pulled from a recent Panthers exhibition: GOOFING AROUND. Does it mean Newton is not good? Of course not. But Thomas Davis – a linebacker and leader – reportedly brought it to his attention. The knock on Newton is maturity. And he doesn’t seem to have matured.
45. I’m already bored by the 10+ win Falcons.
46. Why I like the Bucs this year: (1) Darrelle Revis – healthy – takes away Julio Jones, Steve Smith and Marques Colston. He c an seriously debilitate some explosive passing games. (2) Josh Freeman showed flashes of brilliance in 2012. Another year in Mike Sullivan’s offense will do him wonders. (3) I like them to take three out of four from the AFC East. Split the division and they are 6-4 while drawing Philadelphia and Detroit based on 2012 finish. (4) I’m willing to overlook the influence of Dave Wannstedt.
47. I make playoff predictions and try to throw a few curve balls into the mix. Anybody can pick the favorites. I like to mix it up.
48. AFC Playoffs: Broncos, Texans, Bengals, Patriots, Steelers, Chiefs
49. NFC Playoffs: 49ers, Falcons, Bears, Redskins, Seahawks, Bucs
50. AFC Wildcard Round : Bengals over Chiefs, Steelers over Patriots
51. NFC Wildcard Round: Bears over Bucs, Redskins over Seahawks
52. AFC Division Round: Broncos over Steelers, Bengals over Texans
53. NFC Division Round: 49ers over Redskins, Bears over Falcons
54. Championship Games: Broncos over Bengals, 49ers over Bears
55. Super Bowl: 49ers over Broncos

Packers fans may send their complaints to NobodyGivesAShit@dabearsblog.com.

If

Jay

Cutler

plays

great

the

Bears

will

have

a

chance

to

win

the

Super

Bowl

and

he

will

become

very

very

VERY

rich.

We can debate Shea McClellin and Alshon Jeffery and Adam Podlesh all we want. If Cutler’s great, Bears win. A lot. That’s the season.

Alshon Jeffery is unstoppable.

Almost.

The second year man from St. Matthews, South Carolina…

…is  one of the most physically imposing receivers in the game at 6’3″ and more than 215 pounds. His sub-4.5 speed makes him hell to deal with down the sideline and a realistic threat over the top on every snap. The existence of Brandon Marshall, one of the game’s best players, makes Jeffery a defensive coordinator’s afterthought. The Dom Capers and Rob Ryans of the world will intentionally walk Marshall and pitch to Jeffery. That approach has led to some remarkably productive seasons from lesser talents, i.e. Price comma Peerless.

Two questions hang over Jefferey’s 2013 season. (1) Can he handle the pressure and spotlight of being a big star in a big city? (2) Can he stay healthy?

There is no way to answer the first and speculation of any kind would be unnecessary and unfair. To this point Jeffery’s professional career has been a relatively anonymous one, plagued by injuries and overshadowed by the scope of Marshall’s 2012 work. Hell, watch NFL Network and drink every time someone calls him “Jefferies” and you’ll be pissing on the side of a convenience store by the end of NFL AM – TV’s worst show. But Jeffery is no longer a rookie in the development stage of his career. In year two he is being asked to make the leap.

There will be a fumble here or there. There will be a drop in a big spot. There will be a young player brain cramp when the football is in the air. Those errors will be accompanied by Tribune column space featuring words he’s rarely seen written about him during his football life. How he handles it may define his career in Chicago.

As for his health, it’s always been an issue. After a breakout sophomore season at South Carolina (88-1,517-9) he struggled to stay on the field as a junior and many believe his decision to jump the college ship early was based upon he and his team deciding it was not in the best interest of his body to continue taking a beating without monetary compensation. Needless to say Jeffery does the Bears no good in a jumper on Sunday afternoons, leaving Earl Bennett and Marquess Wilson and Joe Anderson to cover the slack.

No sir, he does not. This situation is clear. The Bears receiving corps is only dynamic if Jeffery is on the field. Otherwise it’s just Brandon Marshall and a bunch of other guys. Jeffery is the element that can elevate the Bears from a good passing game to a great one.

If you ask me, the only person who can stop him is himself.

This is Part I of a three-part series previewing the upcoming Chicago Bears series.

The New York Giants constantly change the way things are done in the NFL. Lawrence Taylor did not only alter the type of athletes general managers sought on the defensive side of the ball but also – as you can read in the book-far-better-than-the-film The Blindside – created the need for opposing offenses to draft and pay athletic, bid bodies to block them.

(Side note: The Blindside movie isn’t a bad movie. But it never lives up to it’s wonderful opening.)

When Tom Brady and company were winning every game they played in 2007 and scoring a zillion points a week, the world awaited their coronation on Super Bowl Sunday as quite possibly the greatest football team to ever play. (We know around these parts who currently holds that distinction.) Then something unexpected happened. The Giants changed changed the way things are done again by launching an assault from a pass-rushing well that seemed ever-ending. They did the same to Brady in 2011.

Since 2007 pass rushers have become the hottest commodity in American sports and former Bears GM Jerry Angelo embraced this concept by purchasing Julius Peppers for the more than $90 million, $50 million of which Peppers is sure to receive. The approach of Angelo and Lovie was simple: buy an elite edge rusher and develop young talent opposite him.

That young talent is Corey Wootton and Shea McClellin and they – as a duo – are essential to the success of the 2013 Chicago Bears. The Bears have a terrific secondary and the greatest fumble causer in the history of the league in Peanut Tillman but the modern NFL does not allow for secondaries to dominate a football game. Every rule change made in the last decade has been made to benefit the wide receiver. If the Bears showcase an anemic pass rush and give opposing quarterbacks time, receivers WILL get open. Plays WILL be made. Points WILL be scored.

Writers, even myself, are prone to establish quantitative rationale to success at the defensive end position. So and so needs this many sacks to have a successful year. This team needs this many sacks from this guy to blah blah blah. It just isn’t the way football works. If Shea McClellin sacks Andy Dalton five times on opening Sunday and finishes the year with 10.5 sacks, was that a successful campaign? (I’ll hang up and listen to your answer.)

The Bears need consistent, down-for-down pressure. They need to hurry opposing quarterbacks. They need to hit opposing quarterbacks. If they make life uncomfortable for Dalton, Stafford, Rodgers, Roethlisberger footballs will end up in compromising positions and no defense in the league takes more advantage of compromised footballs than this current crop of Chicago Bears. Peppers will draw enough attention from offensive coordinators to provide McClellin and Wootton with opportunities. If they take advantage the Bears will among the elite defenses in the NFL.

This weekend, Labor Day weekend, is for many NFL fans a final weekend of peace.  A final weekend without trying to appease the gods of suburbia on Saturday in a desperate attempt to free the Sunday calendar. A final weekend of slept-through Saturday nights, free from the mind’s breakdown of covering the deep middle and protecting the blind side. A final weekend without the nerves and rituals that accompany our particular Sunday experiences and the Monday morning hangover that follows.

Peace.

Football is America’s greatest sport for a great many reasons but the most often overlooked is the simplicity of its schedule. Once a week. One time a week a team gets a chance to prove itself. The other six days leave the fans and media scrambling for information and answers, desperate to know who did what and why and can it be fixed. So much of the drama of the NFL happens off the field and outside the locker room. It happens in the minds of the fans as they sit at the work desks on Wednesday and relive the dropped ball or missed field goal or phantom holding call. It stews and builds and boils and then…

Sunday.

It releases in the experience of watching your team play once again.

Catharsis.

And then the boardwalk wheel is spun once again.

This is the final weekend of peace, the final weekend before the drama and I urge you to enjoy it. We football obsessives don’t know quite how engulfed we become in the game for these next 4-5 months.

Ask your wife….

or girlfriend…

…or boyfriend…

…or priest or mechanic or video store clerk…

…or prostitute you visit at the airport Hyatt on Monday nights.

Ask them how you behave on a Monday following a victory. Ask them how it changes after a loss.

Maybe it’s immature. Maybe it’s not. But it isn’t normal. Not to those who don’t understand.

This weekend, enjoy normal. Enjoy the peace. Around 12:00 pm CT Sunday take a cup of tea and biscuit out into the yard and discuss the mess in Syria or the last time you had a really good quiche.

Enjoy the peace. It ends next week.

It’s no surprise I hate the preseason. It is a meaningless, no-win exercise in trying to keep your roster intact for when the games matter. The good things that can come from a preseason game? Slight. The bad things? Season over. The seesaw’s got a fat guy on it and I don’t wanna play.

Tonight’s game is an embarrassment to the NFL. When a franchise like the Bears tells the football world, “This game is not important enough to risk Josh McCown”…we know what we’re dealing with. McCown is no good and if franchises really valued these “reps” fans keep Tweeting me about, he’d be playing. But they don’t. They know the whole enterprise is an economic sham.

So what should you watch if the draw of North Carolina v. South Carolina is not too strong?

• Is Michael Ford v. Armando Allen still a thing? It shouldn’t be. Ford has looked physical and explosive this summer and is a logical replacement for Devin Hester should the injury bug bite him.
• Does Brandon Hardin have a logical chance to make the roster? It won’t have anything to do with how he plays tonight. Hardin has been nowhere while Walters and Steltz have cemented their roles as backup safeties.
• Will Fendi Onobun catch a ball thrown directly to him?
• Jordan Palmer is playing quarterback. Ugh.
• Is anything at stake for Marquess Wilson and Joe Anderson? I doubt it. But whomever sees massive playing time tonight may find himself jobless this weekend.
• Jason Campbell is starting for the Browns. Remember him? (I still wish he’d stayed in Chicago and I bet he does too.)
• This may be your last chance to see JT Thomas play snaps this year!
• For some reason the Bears are hinting that Jon Bostic is playing tonight. If Bostic is set to start next week there is no conceivable reason to put him on the field as he’ll gauge nothing from working with eleven twos. So at least there will be a player on the field to shout “Take him out!” about.
• I still wonder about J’Marcus Webb. Can the Bears keep both he and Jonathan Scott on this active roster? If Scott does not recover in short order will the Bears drop him on PUP and reevaluate the situation in seven weeks. Webb has started full seasons at both left and right tackle. He is an asset as the team’s flex tackle coming off the bench. They’d be crazy to cut him.

Enjoy. The next football game after tonight’s sham is the real deal.