There’s been a good deal of talk this offseason about how the Bears will model their offense after the Kansas City Chiefs, which makes sense given that new head coach Matt Nagy spent his last several years in Kansas City learning from Andy Reid.

But I think Chicago’s offense will end up looking more similar to what Philadelphia has run the last two years under Doug Pederson, another branch on the Reid coaching tree. Even though both offenses are similar, there are some subtle yet important differences that are worth looking at. So today I want to start by looking at personnel to see which one Chicago matches better, and then I’ll compare and contrast offensive styles.

Personnel

Kansas City’s offense was built around three main producers: running back Kareem Hunt, wide receiver Tyreek Hill, and tight end Travis Kelce. Those three combined for 4,069 of Kansas City’s 6,007 yards from scrimmage, meaning they were about 2/3 of the offense.

Quite frankly, the Bears just aren’t built to be that reliant on a small number of players. Outside of Jordan Howard and Allen Robinson, nobody has been a high-volume producer, and even Robinson has only hit 1,000 yards in a season once in his four years.

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John Fox’s coaching staff was bashed for not getting the ball to rookie tight end Adam Shaheen enough, but that doesn’t figure on changing much under Matt Nagy. Shaheen played just over 24% of the snaps last year. That number should increase in 2018, provided he can beat out Dion Sims as the starting in-line tight end. But if the moves this team has recently made turn out the way they think, it’s hard to see Shaheen catching a lot of passes in 2018.

Trey Burton & Friends

He’s not much of a blocker, but the Bears signed Burton to be their top tight end. The Bears made him one of the highest-paid tight ends in the league. That’s not happening if they don’t expect him to play nearly every snap. 

Burton’s signing alone didn’t indicate a smaller role for Shaheen. The club also invested heavily at receiver by paying Allen Robinson star money, Taylor Gabriel starter money and trading a 2019 second rounder to draft Anthony Miller with the 51st pick. Not only did the Bears spend a high pick on Miller, but they reportedly tried to move back up into the end of the first round to draft Calvin Ridley.

Their aggressiveness at the position is a strong indication that they’re going to have three receivers on the field quite a bit. Not a surprise. In his time in Kansas City, Matt Nagy’s offenses rarely utilized the second tight end. Over the past five years, KC’s second tight end averaged just 5.6% of the team’s targets — 29 per season. This is about the same as the fourth wide receiver. The third receivers came in at 9.2%.

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• The Bears have two wins because they have a good coach and a good quarterback. You were told that they would win some games for that reason, I know you were because I’m the one who told you. (Pats self on back).

• Through five games in 2014, Matt Forte had 118 touches. Through five games in 2015, he has 120. I don’t know when we should start worrying about over-usage, but he looks damn good right now. He isn’t the only one getting the ball a lot, the Bears backup running backs have combined for 26 touches after totaling 42 last year. Fox wasn’t kidding when he said he wanted to run the ball, the Bears are 12th in attempts after finishing 30th last year.

• Coming into the game, there was a debate about which team had the better quarterback. That debate is dead. You saw on Sunday why turnovers aren’t the end all, be all when it comes to quarterback play. The guy still has to be able to make plays. Smith can’t. Cutler can.

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(1) Saw no issues w/upper body strength. To contrary he planted defenders into the ground several times. Love how he finishes blocks.

(2) All his mistakes – including Cutler sack/TD – were assignment errors, not physical errors. He AND Slauson both confused on sack.

(3)

Grasu 3. His athleticism is obvious. Tom Thayer did a nice job breaking down how impactful it is in this video: http://t.co/HrqBofWbjY

— DaBearsBlog (@dabearsblog) October 13, 2015

(4) His comfort level and confidence increased every quarter. He was a stone wall on the Bears two touchdown drives.

(5) It is only one game but this kid can play. If this game was an example of his growing pains, the Bears found a good one.

Where do we start? Oh yeah, the quarterback.

• There can’t be more outlets – mainstream media or internet – who’ve been more strident in their belief that Jay Cutler can be a winning quarterback than right here. The last two weeks he’s shown why. If the Bears are in the game, if their defense does not allow 300 points, if Cutler is put in a position to win…he can go out and beat any team in the league.
• Cutler’s touchdown pass to Marquess Wilson was the prettiest throw I’ve ever seen from a Bears quarterback.
• Cutler dropping the snap, picking it up and finding Forte with defenders at his feet TO WIN THE GAME was no less impressive.
• Jay still makes mechanical mistakes on a lot of throws, especially when there’s pressure coming from his blind side. Just needs to step into his throws and deliver the ball.
• Matt Forte might just deserve a two-year extension. I don’t care how old he is. He’s playing like a 25 year-old.

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BLOCK EM AND BEAT EM!

If the Chiefs, with nine sacks on the season, don’t get to the opposing quarterback, it’s over. That might be true for many teams but it’s particularly true for a team with Justin Houston, Tamba Hali and Allen Bailey. Houston has three sacks and per Gil Brandt leads the league in total pressures with 19. He’s a magnificent player. What are the solutions? Well Hue Jackson, Andy Dalton and Bengals provided them…

• Quick passing game that’s been effective under Cutler through two and a half games. (See the single play breakdown below) The Chiefs secondary is awful so Cutler has to get the ball into the hands of his receivers and give them a chance to make plays.
• Read option looks. Dalton is not a running quarterback but the Bengals showed enough read option, specifically to Houston’s side, to keep the rush on its heels. Can Cutler’s hamstring be healed enough to even hint at the possibility of a run threat?
• Power run game up the middle. This should be a week where the Bears pound Forte up the gut and allow Kyle Long to release off the line of scrimmage after Houston. Houston is an excellent pass rusher but he’s a bit lost in run support. Long should be able to muscle him off the line.

THE GAME POEM

On the head of an arrow

lay a drop of blood

Darker than red

thicker than mud

To feel it

is to remember life

The sharpened blade

of this tribal knife

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All point spreads provided below were listed on BETUS.com as of Wednesday afternoon.

Saturday 4:35 PM ET – Kansas City at Indianapolis

Line: Indianapolis -2.5

Analysis: I’m going with a three-pronged approach to this.

1. Andy Reid is always a little dicey when it comes to the postseason. All of a sudden how he controls the game/manages the clock becomes far more important and Reid is notoriously terrible at both of those things.
2. Since losing 42-28 on the road to the Bengal the Colts have thrashed the Texans, Chiefs and Jaguars. Yes I know two of those three are not the most impressive opponents and KC had nothing to play for in December but I like seeing teams dominate teams they should dominate.
3. Aren’t we due for an Andrew Luck, national spotlight, coming out party? While all the talk has been about Bob Griffin drama and Kaepernick struggling for ten weeks, Luck has quietly just gone about winning games. I think he’s going to have a big afternoon.

Final Score: Indianapolis 30, Kansas City 23

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