Putting the Three-Game Offensive “Surge” in Context

| December 14th, 2020

[Note: The following is an analysis of the last three games played by the Chicago Bears offense. Yes, it is understood that much of the offensive production in Green Bay occurred in “garbage time” but when it comes to this offense, we can’t really leave that production out of the discussion.]

Against the Packers: 363 yards, 25 points, 242 yards passing, 121 yards rushing.

Against the Lions: 407 yards, 30 points, 267 yards passing, 140 yards rushing.

Against the Texans: 436 yards, 36 points, 267 yards passing, 169 yards rushing.

So the averages over this three-game period are 402 yards, 30.3 points, 258.7 yards passing, 143.3 yards rushing.

  • Only one team in the league – Kansas City – averages more than 400 yards per game.
  • One four teams – KC, Green Bay, Seattle, Tennessee – average more than 30 points per game.
  • 258 yards passing per game would land the Bears 13th in the NFL for that category. Many of us argued that if the Bears could be in the top half of the league throwing the football they would be a surefire playoff team.
  • 143.3 yards rushing per game would land the Bears 7th in the NFL for that category, and three of the teams they would trail (Baltimore, Arizona, New England) feature a running quarterback as a primary weapon.

Is this production a mirage? Or has Matt Nagy finally pushed the right buttons?