Let’s be honest. If the Bears play offense this Sunday the way they played it last Sunday, they have zero chance to beat any team in the league. Not the Texans. Not the Jags. Not the Jets. No one. So the points being made below are being made under the assumption the coach will actually install a logical, professional game plan and the offensive linemen won’t all play their worst game at the same time. (At the time of posting this, it is believed Bill Lazor is calling plays.)

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VDM. (Victory Difficulty Meter)

39.7%

This is the “easiest” game on the Bears schedule. But after Sunday, it’s impossible to call any game on their schedule “easy”. The Bears opened as 6-point favorites in this contest. The line is now under 3 at most books.

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What Must the Bears Do on Offense:

• Don’t assume the run game will be there. Yes, the Lions are allowing 114+ yards per game on the ground but they have faced the Niners, Packers and Ravens – three of the best rushing offenses in the league. Run defense is about intensity. It’s about want to. And you only have to watch the Lions defense (under Aaron Glenn) for five minutes to realize they have both of those things in abundance.
• Take advantage of an aggressive pass rush. The Lions saw the tape of Bears/Browns and they’re salivating at the thought of facing this coach and offensive line. They’re going to be aggressive Sunday and the Bears need to counter that aggression with a combination of (a) screens/short passes and (b) a quarterback ready to accelerate up the field for big gains.
• Opposing passer rating against the Lions is 123.2 and one needs only watch tape of their game vs. Baltimore to understand why. Yes, the game ended on a Justin Tucker 66-yard field goal but it had no business being anywhere near that close. Hollywood Brown dropped 100 yards of passes and two easy touchdowns. (These are not questionable drops. These are Brown, by himself, at the end zone, letting footballs go through his fingers.) It should have been at least 27-0 at the half. If Nagy (and Lazor) can’t scheme open receivers against this secondary, they’ll never be able to do it.

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What Must the Bears Do on Defense:

• Be disciplined. Misdirection and play action are the hallmarks of this offense. The Lions can’t just line up, run plays and beat their opponent. They don’t have the talent for that. They need to keep defenses off-balance and these are their primarily tools to do so.

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After three weeks of the season, two things are unquestionably true:

• Matt Nagy installed an unforgivable game plan against Cleveland and was not able to fix it.
• Matt Nagy was right in that Andy Dalton should be the starting quarterback.

Sunday’s game was among the worst we’ve seen. The backlash against Nagy has been every bit as bad. And that’s fair. There is no excuse for managing just 47 yards and one net passing yard in a league where every single rule change is engineered for more passing, more yards, more points. It’s hard to figure out Sunday is even possible. But is it possible. It happened. And the blame has to be tossed on Nagy’s lap.

But does this season warrant a second look?

The Bears offense is close to the bottom of the league pretty much across the board, but it didn’t start that way. While few are willing to accept that Justin Fields really just may not have been ready, it’s hard to find another legitimate explanation. When Dalton quarterbacked the team, the offense was nothing short of competent. In the 11 drives Dalton served as the primary quarterback, the Bears averaged 43.1 yards, that mark would be good enough for fourth best in the league, according to Football Outsiders.

Yes, you read that right.

The common rebuttal to that is that the team didn’t score enough. And that’s true, their 1.91 points per drive would be just 24th in the league – almost equal with Tennessee.

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Nick Foles: “Offense isn’t working.”

Nick Foles “offense just isn’t working” pic.twitter.com/do0Uj8HQco

— Cody B (@Cody_ChiBears) September 26, 2021

Ben Roethlisberger, Volume I.

Ben Roethlisberger looking elite as usual pic.twitter.com/kWlIOsSSQd

— PGS NEST (@NestPgs) September 26, 2021

Ben Roethlisberger, Volume II.

Ben Roethlisberger throws this INT right into Logan Wilson’s hands. #Steelers pic.twitter.com/XJjj8vRHto

— Alex Kozora (@Alex_Kozora) September 26, 2021

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Adam Oestmann was a colleague of DBB during our ill-fated period at ChicagoNow. But he’s a writer I’ve always admired and a genuinely good dude. Thrilled to publish his thoughts here.

It didn’t take long after the Bears hired Matt Nagy in 2018 for the media to label him the offensive guru Chicago football fans had been hoping for. The former Chiefs’ offensive coordinator had spent just a single season in that role, and only part of it calling plays. Nevertheless, the Chiefs ranked among the NFL’s best when it came to scoring points that season, finishing sixth in the league, and Nagy, it seemed, was poised to turn the tide in Chicago.

That was 2018.

Three years and into a fourth season later and – when it comes to scoring points at least – Nagy is, statistically, one of the worst offensive head coaches in the history of this franchise. Nagy’s 2019, 2020 and, thus far, 2021 points-per-game rank among the worst for the team. Ever. It would seem the offensive-minded quarterbacks guru the Bears thought they were getting didn’t exist from Jump Street.

Following a three-game losing streak and heading into a Week 10 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings last season, a reluctant Nagy relinquished play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. The Bears went on to lose to the Vikings 19-13, but an interesting thing began to happen that cannot be seen on a stats page: the Bears’ offense seemed to be forming an identity. Finishing the regular season 8-8, the team earned a Wild Card playoff berth before being knocked out by the 12-4 Saints.

Bill Lazor’s calls, it turned out, were good for more than a touchdown per game over Nagy’s (on average). In a league where many games are decided by less, Lazor’s eight points-above-replacement number was significant. If Nagy had been able to find those eight points earlier in the season, his team might have won as many as three more games.

But let’s not get too lost in the weeds.

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Trevor Lawrence is a rookie quarterback. And he’s struggling. But his coach isn’t going anywhere, barring those pesky “health issues” that seem to plague him at 12-month intervals and ultimately land him in a job that pays more money, usually from a university handing out taxpayer cash.

Zach Wilson is a rookie quarterback. And he’s struggling. But his coach isn’t going anywhere because this is his first year on the job and he’s overseeing a massive rebuild project.

Mac Jones is a rookie quarterback. And now he’s struggling too! (Welcome aboard, Mac!) But his is the greatest head coach in the history of the sport and he knows he has to endure the struggles of 2021 for the promise of 2022 and beyond.

Trey Lance is a rookie quarterback. And he’s playing in spurts, even while the starter struggles. But there’s no pressure on the head coach because he’s adored; even if some of us question the level of that adoration.

Justin Fields is a rookie quarterback. And Sunday, in Cleveland, he didn’t even have the opportunity to struggle because the performance of the offense around him was as bad as anything you can find in this league. Coaches. Linemen. Receivers. (Tight ends didn’t get on the field so they’re exempt.) Fields spent the afternoon running for his life. His coach? Let’s just take a few moments to look at the basics.

Offensive Rankings:

• 2018: Yards – 21st, Points – 9th (with a lot of help from the defense)
• 2019: Yards – 29th, Points – 29th
• 2020: Yards – 26th, Points – 22nd
• 2021, through three game: Yards – dead last, Points – one spot from dead last

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It is often difficult to summarize a football game in one sentence.

Sunday’s game was not one of those.

The Bears had no chance to block the Cleveland Browns and subsequently no chance to run a professional offense.

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Offense.

• What do you say about an offensive line that can’t compete? They didn’t struggle at times. They didn’t fail in big moments. They were a noncompetitive group for the duration a football game. The play of the offensive today should confirm to every single Bears fan an unavoidable point: this is not a championship contender, by any means. Teams don’t win championships with lines like this. Hell, teams don’t win nine games with lines like this. This was their worst performances since the Giants beat up Jay Cutler in the Meadowlands many moons ago.
  • Jason Peters trying to block Myles Garrett can’t be a serious approach to an NFL game.
  • Germain Ifedi played his worst game as an NFL lineman.
• There will be a ton of criticism heaped onto the shoulders of Matt Nagy this week and rightfully so. Look no further than the other side of the field to see the improvement possible for a quarterback under the right head coach. Nagy has to prove to this organization that he’s the right guy to coach this quarterback moving forward. And with Exhibit A, the glove didn’t fit.
• A few thoughts on Justin Fields:
  • His “mistake” in the game was not dumping the ball to Marquise Goodwin on the RPO when he rolled left. Could have been a big game. But one has to assume, at that point, he was in “run for my life” mode.
  • Seeing the camera shot from behind Fields made it clear he was wise not to throw the football to his well-covered targets.
  • It just doesn’t seem Nagy’s schemes produce many easy throws. How do you combat a pass rush? End arounds? Screens? Sprint outs? Anything? Don’t tell me those things had no possibility of working when none of them were even attempted.
  • Top of the third quarter, Fields held on when he arm was throttled on a sack. No idea how he did that.
  • Fields will learn which guys he can or can’t outrun but folks have to understand that Fields is a passer first. His eyes are always downfield. He’s not Lamar Jackson and the Bears don’t want him to be that.
• The play didn’t matter but fourth and ten late, Nagy and Castillo left Peters on an island with Garrett AGAIN. How is that even possible? How does any objective observer not look at that play – that play ALONE – and conclude the coaching staff is out of their depth?
• Hey Goodwin, come back for the football.
• 3rd and 2 pitch outs to David Montgomery when you can’t block the edge are insane calls.
• Naked boots with Fields in the red zone are too.

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Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And the Justin Fields era is here!

Let’s Talk About Fields.

There will be two distinct camps emerging on social media over the coming days. Camp one will be the ecstatic, “Fields is gonna light up the league” types. Camp two will be the reserved, “all rookie quarterbacks struggle” types. While I firmly reside in the latter camp, I understand the emotions of the former. Most living Bears fans have only seen quarterback play ranging from mediocre to unprofessional. Pleading for patience may be prudent, but it’s also easy to understand any fan who says, “Screw patience, I want a star quarterback!”

But Sunday is not about Fields’ long-term future in Chicago. This Sunday is about next Sunday and the Sunday after that. Matt Nagy and the Bears need Fields to deliver the kind of performance that closes the book on the Andy Dalton era. That doesn’t mean some splashy statistical affair. It just means a performance wherein the kid displays that he’s got things under control.

It’s not an easy task. This is a good Cleveland defense in a hostile building. Fields will see coverages and pressures the Browns have never put on tape, and likely that he’s never seen before. But he’ll need to handle all of it and leave no doubt as to who is the starting quarterback for the Chicago Bears.

Stats of the Week

• Won through the air? Through two games, the Bears and Browns are two of the top nine rushing defenses in the league, coming in fourth and ninth respectively. With Cleveland’s injuries at receiver and Chicago starting a rookie QB, it’s unlikely either team will abandon the run, successful or not. (The teams rank eighth and third in rushing offense.)
• Only eight players in the league have more sacks than the 2.5 Robert Quinn currently has.
• Baker Mayfield is completing 81.6% of his passes. That’s just a gaudy number. There will be a ton of stress on the secondary Sunday to make tackles and limit YAC. Can they hold up?

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VDM. (Victory Difficulty Meter)

84.9%

The Bears have a rookie quarterback, making his first start on the road, against one of the league’s better teams. This is quite clearly an uphill climb.

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What Must the Bears Do on Offense:

• Allow Justin Fields to get comfortable. This is a big moment in the kid’s life. If the Bears come out tossing it every down it will look like a starting pitcher that gets too amped up to start Game One of the World Series – a lot of high fastballs. Put the ball in David Montgomery’s hands. Throw a few bubble screens. Call a few designed runs for the quarterback. Slow the game down early.
• The Texans moved the ball effectively against the Browns until Tyrod Taylor left the game with an injury. And they did so by throwing the ball down the field. The Bears can’t win this game with the dink and dunk approach they favored under an Andy Dalton regime. They must stretch the field, and that means Darnell Mooney and Marquise Goodwin over the top. The Bears have now what the speed they’ve desired for years. Use it.
• Tight ends, tight ends, tight ends. The Bears have talent at the position. Jimmy Graham is still a matchup nightmare in the red zone and Cole Kmet can dictate terms in the middle of the field. But Matt Nagy can’t stick them at the end of Fields’ progressions and hope he gets there. Call their numbers. Make them the first read. Give them a chance to make plays.

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What Must the Bears Do on Defense:

• Stop the run. Yes, this is a generic, goes-for-every-game bullet point but the injuries are starting to stack on the outside for Cleveland. Jarvis Landry won’t play this week. Odell Beckham doesn’t look like he’s playing anytime soon. The Browns will want to run the ball 25-30 times and if they’re productive with those runs, the Bears have very little chance of keeping them out of the end zone.
• Contain Baker Mayfield. Mayfield isn’t considered one of the game’s running quarterbacks but his ability to move the chains/score with his legs has been a difference maker for the Browns through the first two weeks. With receivers struggling to get separation down the field, the Bears can’t be undisciplined with their pass rush. They have to keep Mayfield in the pocket and when he breaks out of it, they can’t let him roam free.
• Tight ends, tight ends, tight ends. The Browns completed 11 passes to their tight ends – Harrison Bryant, Austin Hooper, David Njoku – last week. Baker only completed 19 passes the entire game. This is not the week to see aggressive, pass rushing Roquan Smith. This is the week for Roq to work the middle of field and limit the effectiveness Cleveland’s dynamic collection of tight ends.

While recent NFL history has plenty of success stories when it comes to rookie quarterbacks, Bears fans should prepare themselves for the most likely scenario: rookie quarterbacks struggle.

The 2021 season is the perfect case study.

All of the rookie quarterbacks were tremendous in the preseason. Trevor Lawrence went 11-for-12 with two touchdowns in his last action and Zach Wilson finished 9-for-11 with two scores. Those two are currently the lowest-rated passers with at least 20 attempts in the regular season. If you drop the number of minimum attempts to 15, the four lowest-rated passers in the league are Fields (38.2), Wilson (56.1), Lawrence (57.1) and Davis Mills (58.1).

Not good.

But numbers don’t tell the whole story. Fields had a dropped touchdown pass that went right threw Allen Robinson’s arms. Even with that completion on Sunday, his passer rating would’ve only been 71. Maybe better chemistry with Darnell Mooney could’ve led to a couple of more completions, but the interception and the fumble still happened and were nearly catastrophic.

In August, Sheil Kapadia of The Athletic did a story looking at rookie quarterbacks, wherein he determined that 24 of the 31 were below average. “The median rookie season was Mike Glennon,” Kapadia wrote.

In the last five years, there have been 17 teams that have had rookie quarterbacks play extensively. Only two of those teams finished inside the top 15 in terms of scoring and three were in the top half of the league in yardage. From 2016 to 2019, the worst offenses in the league were all quarterbacked by rookies.

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