I took a twenty-year sabbatical from the world of fantasy football, returning in 2022 and stunning the fantasy world with a third place finish that season in the Thomas H. Bowden league. (The league is named after one of our original members who passed on 9/11.)

In 2023, my expectation rose, and my draft haul of Tyreek Hill, Davonte Adams, Deebo Samuel and Michael Pittman suggested those expectations would be met. But this is a keeper league. And I kept Justin Fields. I also took an earlyish-round shot on a tight end I thought was going to have a monster year: Darren Waller. I finished in third place once again, but most of that was luck.

Other than listening to The Fantasy Footballers podcast – a delightful show I make part of my daily NFL season routine – I do zero research before the draft. But I’m still asked to discuss the Bears on fantasy podcasts around the country. This year, the Bears are fantasy relevant, and those requests have tripled. (My acceptance rate has not.) Here are some thoughts I have shared.

D’Andre Swift is being under drafted.

Most platforms have Swift being taken as the RB22-25, behind the likes of Rhamondre Stevenson, Najee Harris and Aaron Jones. But there are three reasons I’m targeting Swift.

(1) The Bears did. This was a player the franchise identified and acquired extremely early in free agency and for good reason. He is going to be a focal point of this offense.

(2) Preseason usage. One screen. 50 yards. No snaps since. If the Bears are planning to platoon Swift and Herbert evenly, they sure aren’t suggesting that with their summer snaps.

(3) Receiving game. Shane Waldron’s two backs in Seattle last year – Walker and Charbonnet – caught 62 balls for 468 yards. And neither of those backs presents the threat in the passing game that Swift does.

Another Back I Love: Isiah Pacheco. It has been a long time since Andy Reid has fielded a proper three-down back and I think Pacheco is destined for that kind of season.

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D'andre Swift
•Just got paid RB1 money
•Elite pass catching ability
•Positive touchdown regression
•Top 10 in Fantasy points per touch in 3 of last 4 seasons pic.twitter.com/1d3WdhFRmy

— Nick Guglielmo (@NextLvl_Fantasy) June 30, 2024

Let’s be honest. If the Bears play offense this Sunday the way they played it last Sunday, they have zero chance to beat any team in the league. Not the Texans. Not the Jags. Not the Jets. No one. So the points being made below are being made under the assumption the coach will actually install a logical, professional game plan and the offensive linemen won’t all play their worst game at the same time. (At the time of posting this, it is believed Bill Lazor is calling plays.)

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VDM. (Victory Difficulty Meter)

39.7%

This is the “easiest” game on the Bears schedule. But after Sunday, it’s impossible to call any game on their schedule “easy”. The Bears opened as 6-point favorites in this contest. The line is now under 3 at most books.

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What Must the Bears Do on Offense:

• Don’t assume the run game will be there. Yes, the Lions are allowing 114+ yards per game on the ground but they have faced the Niners, Packers and Ravens – three of the best rushing offenses in the league. Run defense is about intensity. It’s about want to. And you only have to watch the Lions defense (under Aaron Glenn) for five minutes to realize they have both of those things in abundance.
• Take advantage of an aggressive pass rush. The Lions saw the tape of Bears/Browns and they’re salivating at the thought of facing this coach and offensive line. They’re going to be aggressive Sunday and the Bears need to counter that aggression with a combination of (a) screens/short passes and (b) a quarterback ready to accelerate up the field for big gains.
• Opposing passer rating against the Lions is 123.2 and one needs only watch tape of their game vs. Baltimore to understand why. Yes, the game ended on a Justin Tucker 66-yard field goal but it had no business being anywhere near that close. Hollywood Brown dropped 100 yards of passes and two easy touchdowns. (These are not questionable drops. These are Brown, by himself, at the end zone, letting footballs go through his fingers.) It should have been at least 27-0 at the half. If Nagy (and Lazor) can’t scheme open receivers against this secondary, they’ll never be able to do it.

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What Must the Bears Do on Defense:

• Be disciplined. Misdirection and play action are the hallmarks of this offense. The Lions can’t just line up, run plays and beat their opponent. They don’t have the talent for that. They need to keep defenses off-balance and these are their primarily tools to do so.

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