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Week 9: Dolphins at Bears Game Preview, or Their WR Speed vs. Our Safeties = Fun!

| November 3rd, 2022

The Bears are selling off their best defenders and about to face one of the most explosive offenses in the league. So…

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.


So, who are the Chicago Bears Now?

The answer to that question is simple. They are their quarterback.

This franchise will no longer, at least in the short term, be defined by the question, “Can they get enough from the quarterback position to be competitive?” Their quarterback is settling into a groove, the coaching staff is building their plan around his abilities, and that combination of groove/plan is going to be the Chicago identity for the foreseeable future.

The Bears scored 33 against the Patriots. Because of their QB.

The Bears scored 29 against the Cowboys. Because of their QB.

As they trade off pieces, especially on defense, winning and losing will almost be arbitrary. If the Bears can steal a few takeaways, they can win almost every game left on their schedule. If they don’t, they are destined to lose some shootouts.

Shootouts.

The Chicago Bears.

Because of the quarterback.



Thought on the Miami Dolphins

Folks who only play fantasy football think Tua is having a magical season. Folks who actually watch the games see Tua consistently underthrowing deep balls to Tyreek Hill and Tyreek Hill running around entire secondaries to locate the football. The stats are phenomenal. The tape asks a few questions that are currently without answer.

When you watch Miami play, you see a college football offense. They simply have more speed than almost every opponent they face and a quarterback with a knack for winning ballgames.

But this is not actually a terrible matchup for the Bears, even without Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith. Tua lacks the midrange arm to exploit the holes in the defense. The strength of the entire Bears team right now is the play of their two safeties, Jackson and Brisker, who’ll be tasked with risk management on Sunday. The Bears may not win Sunday, but Miami’s primary strength should be mitigated to some degree.



Looking at the Relevant Stats

  • Dolphins are sixth against the run in YPG and 11th in YPC. This is one of the better rush defenses the Bears have faced all season long, and one of the weaker units against the pass. (Jared Goff looked like Joe Montana last week.) Will this alter the Bears plan at all? (Doubtful.)
  • Miami has only 15 sacks on the season. By contrast, last week’s opponent, Dallas, have 33. Opposing QBs pitch to a quarterback rating of 100 against them. This is a week where Justin Fields should have some cleaner pockets and some open looks.
  • Aside from a monster output in a crazy comeback vs. Baltimore, here are the Miami point totals in the games Tua has started: 20, 21, 15, 16, 31. That’s 20.6 points per game. This is a middle of the road offense, prone to fits of explosive play.


Tomorrow: Game Prediction!

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