Super Bowl Shorts, Volume II: Betting the Over/Under

| February 7th, 2023

The Number: 50.5.

Here are some things to consider when looking at that number.

  • From Lineups.com: “…in 54 Super Bowls played [with an over/under], the total has gone over in 27 of them, and the total has gone under in… 27 of them.” The game itself offers no historical insight. This is a coin flip bet.
  • Nobody likes to bet the under on Super Bowl Sunday. Who the hell wants to root for less points? But as Dannehy pointed out last week, these are superior pass rushes. And historically, in the Super Bowl, the great pass rush beats the great offense. (See: whenever the Giants and Pats met in a Super Bowl.)
  • DBB considers Thanksgiving the line of demarcation for the NFL season. Before that day – a day in which I am reminded how much I love stuffing only to not eat it again for a year – a team’s form is rather inconsequential. Since that day:
    • Eagles are averaging 34.1 points per game with Jalen Hurts.
    • Eagles are allowing 19.4 points per game, albeit against some shockingly poor quarterbacks.
    • Chiefs are averaging 27.3 points per game.
    • Chiefs are allowing 19.6 points per game.

I like the loser of this game around 20 points. That means the winner needs to hit 31 for the over, and that signals the game as something of a blowout. Unlikely.

Bet the under. 

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