If the Bears don’t win today they’ll face a mighty difficult road to the postseason so an argument can be made on today being a must win. If the Bears lose the focus will immediately shift to Lovie Smith’s future with the club.
No excuses from either side of the ball today. Cutler and the offense need to put up 28 points or more and the defense needs to mildly contain AP while limiting Christian Ponder’s connections with Kyle Rudolph. If those three things don’t happen, folks start receiving blame.
I like that Brandon Marshall wants to “carry a bigger load” but how in the hell is that possible? Cutler-to-Marshall is already the entirety of the Bears offense. How about a running game emerge and dominate the line of scrimmage?
Big game. As always you can follow my thoughts throughout the day and during tonight’s Lions v. Packers game by checking out @dabearsblog on Twitter.
Well the blogs picks contest is basically in the books. I Bleed Navy + Orange is going to be the champion without making another selection in the deal. But what the hell? Let’s put the lines out there.
(Home team in CAPS)
WASHINGTON -2 Baltimore
CLEVELAND -6.5 Kansas City
INDIANAPOLIS -5 Tennessee
New York Jets -3 JACKSONVILLE
Chicago -3 MINNESOTA
Atlanta -3 CAROLINA
TAMPA BAY -7 Philadelphia
St. Louis -3 BUFFALO
CINCINNATI -3 Dallas
SAN FRANCISCO -10 Miami
NEW YORK GIANTS -4.5 New Orleans
SEATTLE -10 Arizona
GREEN BAY -6.5 Detroit
Selecion du blogpere: For no other reason than I’m emotionally against giving this crappy Jets team points on the road, I’ll take the Jags.
It is very difficult to write another game preview for Bears v. Vikings when I just wrote one two weeks ago and almost nothing has changed. The Bears still need the game. The Vikings still need the game. Percy Harvin is not playing. Adrian Peterson and Jared Allen are.
But I shall do so anyway.
WHY DO I LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS THIS WEEK?
I always like the Chicago Bears.
Christian Ponder’s last six games have been – with the exception of an excellent performance against Detroit – terrible. Exclude the Lions game and Ponder is completing just over 50% of his passes (50.12), he’s thrown 4 TDs and 7 INTs and his quarterback rating is 49.54. (By no coincidence, Harvin hasn’t played an entire game since October 25th.)
ADRIAN PETERSON IS TRULY GREAT
I can’t root against Adrian Peterson in the same way could never root against Barry Sanders. I have too much respect for his greatness. The difference between Peterson and Sanders? This:
I’d like to write the Bears need to stop Peterson to beat the Vikings but the Packers allowed AP to go off for 200+ and still won by double digits. So I would say this to the Bears defense: limit AP and win.
IT IS JAY CUTLER’S TIME
28 points. That should be the minimum number for Jay Cutler and the Bears offense this week. 28 points. The Bears defense is reeling off Russell Wilson’s two-drive, 177 yard mauling at Soldier Field and right now can not be expected to shutdown the Vikings with the ease they did at Soldier Field in late November. We’ve all commented on the progress being made by Mike Tice and the offense but now – over these final four games – that progress needs to translate into points. 28 points. Sunday.
PAULA COLE: WHERE HAS ALL THE PASS RUSH GONE?
Here is my problem with the Bears pass rush: over the last three games the combination of Peppers, Idonije, McClellin and Wootton has three total sacks and even those three sacks feel completely unimpressive. Watching the Bears defensive line up close on Sunday, only two players jumped off the field: Henry Melton (spectacular) and actually Nate Collins. If the Bears don’t find a consistent edge rush over the next month they will do no better than .500.
ANALYZE THIS, THAT & THE OTHER…
The loss to the Seahawks overshadowed two things. One was of course Cutler’s magnificent performance. But the other was Adam Podlesh, at crunch time, dropping a punt inside the 5. Podlesh has been better of late and I’ve noticed.
Players on notice: Geno Hayes (you can’t be 54 but you can tackle), Kelvin Hayden (you can’t be Tim Jennings but you can try), DJ Moore (back in the nickel spot) & Eric Weems (be smarter on kick returns).
I would hope the Bears defensive meeting rooms this week were infatuated with Kyle Rudolph. If Ponder can’t get the ball to his big tight end he can’t get the ball down the field so it’s incumbent upon the combination of LB/nickel/safety to keep Rudolph from exploiting the middle of the field now to be vacated by the absence of Urlacher. (Side note: the Bears have used Briggs and Roach far more over the middle this year than in previous years due to the limitations on Brian’s legs.)
If Christian Ponder were a read option quarterback, I’d take the Vikings to win.
PREDICTION
As the week has progressed I’ve started to believe the Bears are going to deliver a big effort in Minnesota Sunday. I think there will be a testiness about the defense and a take charge nature about the offense. And if Earl Bennett catches the damn football Sunday I believe we were primed to see a 300+, 3 or 4 TD effort from Jay Cutler.
If the acquisition of Brandon Marshall for a couple of silly third-round draft picks were the only move of Phil Emery’s first off-season as General Manager of the Chicago Bears, the off-season would have to be considered a success. Marshall is not only having the best season in the history of Bears wide receivers. He is having one of the great offensive seasons in the organization’s history…period. And if the Bears can ever give the quarterback a few seconds to look down field, Marshall’s numbers will have nowhere to go but up.
But Emery was also applauded for adding depth to the Bears roster in positions that had been somewhat neglected in recent years by the Angelo administration. He allowed Corey Graham to walk out the door but compensated for that loss by adding Blake Costanzo for special teams tackles and Kelvin Hayden for a veteran presence at corner. Knowing his linebackers were not the springiest of chickens, Emery brought in Geno Hayes – a well-regarded underperformer who would serve as a fourth outfielder of sorts for a unit sporting a pair of superstars. And while the Bears had utilized Danieal Manning and Earl Bennett in the past to step in for Devin Hester on returns, Emery collected Eric Weems – a terrific return man in Atlanta – to add a spark and another body on the receiving corps.
Now with five days until a pivotal division tilt with the Minnesota Vikings, Hayden, Hayes and Weems are all preparing to play starting/pivotal roles.
The Bears can not lean on the injury excuse should they fail over these final four days of the 2012 regular season. Losing Brian Urlacher or Tim Jennings or Devin Hester or Earl Bennett are not valid enough reasons for this campaign to be calebhanied into a redundantly painful death. Losing Jay Cutler is an excuse. Losing Brandon Marshall – 88% of their current offense – would be an excuse. And after watching him dominate Sunday I’m not sure losing Henry Melton would not be a a deathblow to the entirety of this defensive unit. But those three men will be on the field Sunday in Minnesota and most likely for the remainder of the year.
Emery has only had one off-season, it’s true, and this season won’t fall on him should the Bears fail to make the tournament. But the GM’s ability as a talent evaluator will face scrutiny if players like Hayden, Hayes and Weems fail to produce down the stretch. And Emery’s draft picks – especially McClellin, Rodriguez and Jeffery – will be pivotal in solidifying a roster than seems to be falling faster than the Yanks and Rebs at Gettysburg.
Championships are not won with roster depth. Teams need their stars to perform and perform well in the postseason if they want to be crowned Super Bowl champion. But seasons ARE survived with depth and the Bears may soon find themselves in need of survival. Will Emery’s added talent be able to deliver? It is the question of December and its answer may determine whether the Bears are relevant in January.
Here is where the Bears stand as they enter what Lovie Smith labels “the final quarter” of the 2012 regular season. They are 8-4, tied for the lead atop the NFC North (which they’d currently lose on a tiebreaker) and two games ahead of a small crop of middling contenders for a wild card position. None of the final four games of this year are unimportant by any means but the next two – at Minnesota and home to Green Bay – will define how the performance of this schedule will be looked at in January and beyond.
Minnesota
If the Bears beat the Vikings Sunday in Minneapolis it would essentially end any hope for the purple to make the postseason and all-but-assuredly put the Bears in as no less than a wild card. They would hold at least a two game lead on Dallas, Minnesota and St. Louis while also holding head-to-head tiebreakers over each one. (The only club that might pose a threat is Tampa but they have a schedule that does not lend itself to making up two games.)
If the Bears lose to the Vikings, all bets are off and the remainder of the regular season becomes a dogfight, complete with a LOT of scoreboard watching.
Green Bay
If the Bears lose to Minnesota, their home game with Green Bay is a battle for survival – not for the division title.
But if the Bears beat the Vikings (and the Packers hold serve against the Lions) it sets up a great December showdown between two heavily-flawed but talented teams on the Lakefront. If the Bears won they would have a one game lead with two remaining. If the Bears lost, the final two weeks of the season would become about deciphering what road stadium they’ll be traveling to on Wild Card Weekend.
And think about it this way. All of the wins and all of the losses…will any of them mean anything to you if the Bears wake up on Monday morning, December 17th as leaders of the NFC North? If the Bears beat the Packers on the Lakefront and take control of the division will an overtime loss to Russell Wilson or humiliation at the hands of Colin Kaepernick be any more than a footnote to the 2012 regular season?
These next two games are everything. They are the season.
With the game on the line, nursing a 14-10 lead, the Bears allowed rookie quarterback Russell Wilson to engineer a 97-yard, implausible touchdown drive to seemingly defeat Chicago in regulation. After a miraculous connection between Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall sent the game to overtime, the Bears defense rinsed and repeated their awfulness by allowing Wilson to navigate 80 yards with ease. The only way the Seahawks could have beaten the Bears on two drives was to successfully move the 177 yards for two touchdowns. They did. And they had very little resistance.
It is easy to reach for the extremes after a defensive collapse so dramatic. It is easy to blame the age of the defenders and question whether a gimp-legged Brian Urlacher is able to contain running quarterbacks the way he once did. (The Bears have been dominated by Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson.) But the age of the defense was decidedly NOT in question with three minutes remaining in the game. Is it possible age takes 57 minutes to emerge? Is it possible Julius Peppers, Charles Tillman and company only have 55 good minutes in their bodies at this stage in their career?
There was a season for the Bears defense before the 177 yards. It was a season of remarkable touchdowns, the globalization of the Peanut Punch, the best corner back play the city has seen in more than a generation, surprising development from the safeties and, well, did I mention touchdowns? They were one of the best defenses in the league and perhaps the best defense of Lovie Smith’s tenure.
What will the season be for this defense after the 177? More than anything else, this is the question that will define the 2012 regular season campaign. Not Mike Tice. Not Jay Cutler. Not the offensive line. The defense will determine how far along the NFL road the Bears travel. And anybody who tells you they know how this group will perform moving forward is selling you something.
The steam has really escaped this regular season in a way I can’t remember it happening in the past. One of the major reasons for that is the remarkable separation that’s occurred at the top of the respective conference tables. In both leagues an argument can be made only playoff spot is currently up for discussion. The Bears can go a long way towards cementing an appearance in the postseason by beating the Seahawks today and one hopes they’ll match the desperate intensity sure to be on the visitors sideline.
All eyes on the offensive line today. If Cutler is sacked less than three times Bears win easily.
The Seahawks will make taking Brandon Marshall away item number one on their defensive agenda. It will be up to Marshall and Cutler to beat double and sometimes triple teams if they are going to be successful. Other than Cutler to Marshall the Bears have done little else reliably this year.
I’m off to Chicago. I’ll be in Section 108 Sunday, taunting the Seahawks bench.
Picks Contest:
(Home Team in CAPS)
CHICAGO -3.5 Seattle
To read my game preview, including my prediction of a 20-13 Bears win, click here.
GREEN BAY -8 Minnesota
Huge game for both teams. If Minnesota loses their playoff hopes are essentially down the drain without a miracle table run. If Green Bay loses they are thrust head first into the wild card field and would actually have a tricky tiebreaker situation with a certain club in Seattle. I think Green Bay routs em. Packers 38, Vikings 14
San Francisco -7.5 ST. LOUIS
Have we ever seen so precipitous a kicker decline as David Akers? Last year Akers was the best kicker in football, making everything including the Pro Bowl. This year he’s Doug Brien. Niners 21, Rams 10
NEW YORK JETS -4.5 Arizona
You see Ryan Lindley play against the Rams? Jets don’t need Fireman Ed for this one. Jets 17, Cardinals 6
Carolina -3 KANSAS CITY
With the first pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs select… Panthers 27, Chiefs 16
DETROIT -4.5 Indianapolis
Here’s how you know a team is poorly coached. Every week when you’re looking at the slate of games you say, “You know Detroit should win this game. But they won’t.” Well Detroit should win this game. And I say they do in what might end up being the most entertaining game of the day. #SchwartzStrong Lions 33, Colts 30
BUFFALO -5.5 Jacksonville
I can’t quit the Bills. Fighting Chans 17, Henne & Co. 14
New England -7 MIAMI
The unit to watch in the NFL over the final five weeks is the Pats pass defense. If they can move from 29th in the league to say…20th or so…I think this team has a good shot to make the Super Bowl. Pats 28, Dolphins 14
Houston -6 TENNESSEE
Can’t figure out why this line isn’t higher. Texans are one of the best teams in football and I personally witnessed the Bears drop a 50 spot on the Titans in Nashville. Texans 51, Titans 22
DENVER -7 Tampa Bay
Points. Lot of points. I’m not quite on board with the surging Denver defense yet. Broncos 40, Bucs 37
Cincinnati -1.5 SAN DIEGO
Oh, who cares. One of the Teams 17, The Other Team 14
DALLAS -10 Philadelphia
Great job, NFL and NBC. Just keep forcing this grotesque Eagles thing down our throats until we vomit. If you ever doubted the value the networks place on having Dallas in prime time, this should put those doubts to rest. Cowboys 106, Eagles 12
It is a tight race at the top of the standings and – to this point – the picks contest bonuses have been more elusive than a Super Bowl ring at Andy Reid’s house.
Tonight’s bonus:
Total passing yards for Matt Ryan & Drew Brees combined. That is all. You must be within 5 yards. So if your guess is 825 yards, you’d be correct from 820-830. This is the widest range of the season.
