We’re not going to start addressing the offseason until the offseason. That’s been the rule around here since we started and it will continue to be the rule. You’re only guaranteed 16 games a season as an NFL fan/follower/writer and some of my favorite moments watching this team have come in regular season games with zero postseason impact.

Here is the Bears playoff prospective.

1. Bears must win their last two games for any scenario to matter. They must go on the road and win in Arizona and Detroit to finish the season 10-6.
2. Minnesota must lose one of their final two games at Houston or home to Green Bay. They will be a significant underdog in both although there is a possibility the Packers rest their starters for the finale.
3. NFC East Scenario I: If Dallas loses to the Saints Sunday and beats Washington in the final week, Bears are in.
4. NFC East Scenario II: If Washington loses to the Eagles Sunday and beats the Cowboys in the final week, Bears are in.
5. NFC East Scenario III: If the Giants drop one of their final two (at Baltimore, home to Philly) the Bears do not need to concern themselves with Washington and Dallas. Bears can’t beat Giants for wild card due to conference record.

So here’s what a Bears fan wants.

Early Games Sunday: Vikings lose to Houston and either Washington or Dallas lose. If neither of the latter teams lose….

Late Games Sunday: Bears beat Arizona and Baltimore beats the Giants.

What are the odds on any of this happening?

Not bad actually. I think Minnesota will drop at least one of their final two. And if the Ravens could deal the Giants a second loss the Bears will find themselves going to Detroit, most likely, for a shot at the sixth seed.

But the real question is this: can the Bears win back-to-back road games?

Here are my rapid fire thoughts from a depressing afternoon on the Lakefront.

• I believe we have seen the end of the Gabe Carimi era in Chicago. His benching at guard after struggling mightily era should spell his release this spring.
• This game completely changed on Cutler’s mindless interception at the end of the first half. He can not throw that pass. Simply can’t throw it. And he certainly can’t act surprised because Devin Hester did something wrong.
• I’m frankly getting tired of the Jay Cutler sideline show. Nobody on this offense seems to have any clue what’s going on and Cutler kicking and screaming on the bench isn’t making an impact. Just go to the sideline, shut your mouth and wait for your next shot.
• I have never seen offensive pass interference called on one player like that in my life. Refs didn’t decide this game but Alshon Jeffery is owed an apology.
• And the only reason Jeffery saw man coverage all afternoon was because Dom Capers decided to do everything possible to take Brandon Marshall away. And Marshall STILL scored a touchdown. Jeffery had to step up and I thought he did.
• Was Kellen Davis targeted a single time yesterday? Was any tight end?
• Nice start to the game for Corey Wootton and Julius Peppers but where were they in the second half?
• Charles Tillman has not stopped being great all year.
• Tim Jennings has been the most meaningful injury suffered by the Bears this year.
• Other than Lance Louis, is there a single Bears offensive lineman that should return in 2013? Maybe you could sell me on Roberto Garza – who commits false starts like he invented them – but I’d argue the Bears need four new bodies.
• The cross-field throw on the punt return was the single dumbest call of the season. How can Mike McCarthy think the Bears were alive in this game? Why would he toss them a lifeline? That play was legitimately insane.
• At some point Lovie Smith is going to take DJ Moore off Randall Cobb right? Was the game plan really to leave Moore on whomever is in the slot even if its the opposition’s best receiver? (I’m going to make this the centerpiece of my conversation with Cam Worrell this week.)
• I actually thought Devin Hester had a bit of a burst yesterday on returns. Bears should let him keep doing those.
• You see how the Packers run their passing game behind a bad offensive line? They make quick drops and take the 3-5 yard completion. They take their shots down the field, of course, but those shots are catalyzed by success underneath. The Bears do none of this stuff. Their entire game seems predicated upon sitting Cutler into a deep pocket. And it’s terrible. The passing game was far more dynamic under Mike Martz. I don’t see how the Bears allow Mike Tice to call plays in Arizona.
• It didn’t matter but burning time outs early in the third quarter is the act of a coach who doesn’t seem to mind he may be fired.
• Joe Anderson played special teams like he has no interest in visiting the practice squad again. And he shouldn’t. He should also be given a chance to catch some passes before the end of the year.
• The play calling at the goal line…wow. That was the definition of unexciting. Why not just take knees and kick the field goal?

I’d like to see the Bears win these final two games, finish the season at 10-6 and figure out this offense in the spring (with or without a coaching change). But I have not seen enough from this team over the last few weeks to believe they’re capable of winning back-to-back road games. We shall see.

Final points for an uncomplicated game:

• Pressure Aaron Rodgers. If he’s given a pocket of any duration, with any consistency, the game  is over. So how about Julius Peppers putting an injured defense on his back and sacking Rodgers three or four times? Peppers battles double teams with regularity but so do all the upper echelon pass rushers. It’s time for Peppers to shine.
• Limit or completely abolish turnovers. Cutler & Co. can’t give the Packers short fields at any point in this game and expect to avoid trailing. If they trail with any significance, they’ll lose.
• Make a big play on special teams. Kick return. Block. Anything. It doesn’t have to result in a touchdown but it has to result in a momentum shift.

A season can be saved but it requires an inspired effort at home. Bear down.

Side note: Go Browns, Steelers & Rams.

Congrats to I Bleed Navy + Orange on a terrific, come-from-behind victory in the blog picks contest. Crown had the thing wrapped up for seven or eight weeks and Bleed kept in it. Please email me (jeff@dabearsblog.com) to discuss prizes and such.

What are we rooting for this weekend as Bears fans?

• Browns over Redskins. This is perhaps the biggest non-Bears results. If the Redskins win on the road in Cleveland they will most likely head to Dallas in Week 17 with the same 9-6 record as the Bears (should Chicago lose to Green Bay).
• St. Louis over Minnesota. I don’t think the Vikings are going on a run here down the stretch but why not have them lose?
• Pittsburgh over Dallas. The Bears win over Dallas makes them the least intimidating of the WC contenders but knocking them back a step would certainly be welcomed.
• Buffalo over Seattle. If the Bills could beat the Seahawks this week there is still an opportunity for the Seahawks to fade from the playoff picture as they have a home tilt with San Francisco next week.
• Take your pick on New York v. Atlanta. Someone has to win the NFC East and whomever is left will be thrown into the WC mix. I would prefer the Giants fall out of the playoff picture because – let’s be frank – do you think the Bears can beat them in that building on wild card weekend?

Big point. If Bears beat Packers they should solidify a position in the postseason.

Lovie Smith has won far more games than he’s lost as the head coach of the Chicago Bears. And he’s won far more games that his two post-Ditka predecessors did on the Lakefront. Dave Wannstedt was 40-56 in the regular season, 1-1 in the postseason. Dick Jauron was 35-45 in the regular season, 0-1 in the postseason. Lovie is 79-62 in the regular season, 3-3 in the postseason. Irrefutable point: Lovie Smith has been a consistent, winning head coach in the NFL.

Many fans, and employees at both our brilliant (sarcasm) daily newspapers, want Lovie fired as a symbolic gesture to those clamoring for more than above-average success. They want an announcement from Halas Hall stating, “8-8, 9-7 and a division title every couple years is not enough! These are the Chicago Bears!” (This is a statement that makes no sense in the Super Bowl era as those records and the occasional division title has been exactly what the Chicago Bears are.)

Who do they want Smith replaced with? This is a far trickier predicament for the blood thirsty. Those dying for a Chicago Bears Super Bowl crown often point their attention to former Super Bowl champions like Bill Cowher and Jon Gruden, ignoring one of the more glaring and obvious facts in football history: no coach has ever won a Super Bowl with two different teams. The savvier will begin targeting successful college coaches (David Shaw) and hot coordinator candidates (Jay Gruden) from across the landscape of the NFL, even though success on either end can not be described as anything other than a crap shoot. Some just want a different human being on the sideline and they don’t much care who. This was the prevailing sentiment surrounding the firing of GM Jerry Angelo.

What is the difference between a winning team and a championship team? Let’s compare two of the banner franchises of the modern NFL.

The New England Patriots won three Super Bowl titles between 2001 and 2004. Since that year the Pats have been one of the most remarkable regular season teams in the history of pro sports. Records: 10-6, 12-4, 16-0, 11-5, 10-6, 14-2, 13-3 and currently 10-3.  In that period of time they have won 7 playoff games. They have not won a championship.

The New York Giants, since Tom Coughlin’s arrival in 2004, are 82-59 in the regular season. Six games better than Lovie Smith’s Chicago Bears over the same period of time. They have won 8 playoff games en route to two Super Bowl titles. Outside of those two Super Bowl campaigns the Giants have not won a single playoff game during the Coughlin era.

What Couglin’s Giants have proven is you just have to make the tournament. Regardless of seed or regular season play, you just have to arrive at the dance to meet your potential mate. What Belichick’s Patriots have proven is making the tournament every single season is no guarantee of glory. If Belichick had begun his coaching career in 2005, I wonder if the Boston media would not be calling for his ouster as a result of “failure to reach the Promised Land”. And why haven’t they reached the Promised Land? Because David Tyree caught one of the most ridiculous passes in NFL history and Wes Welker dropped a ball he’d catch 99 out of 100 times. That’s what the NFL comes down to. A play or two.

Lovie Smith’s defenses have had their down moments (cough, 2009, cough) but have never been the primary issue facing the Bears. One could easily argue that 75% of his Bears defenses were more than capable of winning the Super Bowl.

Lovie Smith’s offenses have been something of a disaster for three reasons. (1) Until the arrival of Jay Cutler, Lovie never had a quarterback. And even the first year or so of Cutler was shaky. (2) Lovie’s offensive coordinator choices have never been able to consistently balance the coach’s expectations of a run-first approach with the league’s clear favoring of a pass-first attack. (3) Outside of a free agent-based collection of veterans in 2005-2006, Jerry Angelo struggled mightily to find guys who can block.

So what’s the point? The point is any fan or writer who calls – prematurely or otherwise – for the ousting of Lovie Smith should recognize a few things. (1) They would not be doing so if Major Wright intercepted Russell Wilson’s errant pass late against the Seattle Seahawks. (2) They would not be doing so if Alshon Jeffery and Devin Hester caught their respective touchdown passes against the Minnesota Vikings. These are basic facts because these three plays would have resulted in victories, moved the Bears to 10-3, guaranteed thems a 2012 playoff position and changed the discourse from replacing Smith to extending him. That is the difference between winning and losing in the current NFL and this is the difference between a coach being heralded or berated by their respective fans.

Lovie Smith is a good head coach. You’re not 17 games over .500 with a crop of Jerry Angelo players unless you’re a good head coach. If the argument was Angelo could not find talent and Lovie won with the lack of talent found, doesn’t that mean Lovie is a good head coach?

Can the Bears win a championship with Lovie Smith as their head coach? If Phil Emery believes the answer is “no” he will show Lovie the door should the Bears fail to make the 2012 postseason and bring in his own man. Personally, I don’t see how a coach who has BEEN to the Super Bowl would be incapable of WINNING a Super Bowl. He got there by beating two Super Bowl winning coaches. He got there with Rex Grossman, currently third string behind two rookies in Washington, playing quarterback.

I’m pulling for the Bears to beat the Packers Sunday at Soldier Field Sunday not only because I have pulled for the Bears every Sunday of my entire life. I am pulling for the Bears Sunday because I’m pulling for Lovie Smith. The Bears will have a better chance to win a title over the next three seasons if he’s the head coach.

If the Packers were playing well – and they are certainly not – I don’t know if I could conceivably pick the Bears this week. Even as it is now, I’m about at the bottom of the confidence drain. Nevertheless…

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.
• The only non-football reason I can conceive is the Bears approach this game with a “nobody believes in us” mentality. The coach is being fired in the media. The players are being called decrepit. Is this the kind of game wherein a back-to-the-wall Bears deliver an inspired effort? Or do they go gentle into that good night?

Admin Note: Tee Shirts Out Friday, Monday

The second round of tee shirt orders are now being processed and will be placed in the mail on either Friday or Monday. You should receive the shirts by the end of next week. I want to thank everyone for their patience during what was a tricky time and we sincerely hope you enjoy these shirts. The shirts will be available again on a day-to-day basis when we re-launch the site on March 1 at straight-up DaBearsBlog.com.

On the Emotional Evolution of Packer Week.

Brett Favre killed the Packer Week of the modern era. Or at least he attempted to kill it. For the last two decades it was very easy to understand the emotional relationship between the Chicago Bears and the other teams in the NFC North. (For the sake of brevity, we’ll leave the Tampa Bay Bucs out of this discussion since the NFL decided Tampa, Florida was neither in the “central” part of the nation nor the “north”.)

The Lions were not worth any consideration. Sure, it was difficult watching Wannstedt’s boys attempt to tackle Barry Sanders and thrilling to see Paul Edinger kick the Wayne Fontes team out of the postseason in 2000. But, especially in modern times, the futility of the Matt Millen Lions was more endearing than anything else.

The Denny Green Vikings were a pain in the ass, especially with Culpepper, Moss, Carter, Robert Smith…etc. They were an offensive juggernaut. But there was never anything hate-inducing about them. The were inoffensively challenging and the Bears tended to play them pretty well.

The Packers have always been hated. In the blood. In the cradle. On the big yellow school bus and the small white one escorting folks to their medical appointments. And never more so than when Brett Favre was under center for the cheese. His grotesque on-field attitude, overblown media persona and sheer dominance at Soldier Field made him archenemy number one to a football fan base and the majority of a city.

Then he went to Minnesota. Myself and many other Bears fans found their abject rage shifted from the green and gold to the purple folks out west. I still disliked the Packers, of course, but I’d spent so many years thinking the Packers were #4 that I could not let that notion go. So I didn’t.

While the Lions have become a despicable unit, the Packers have returned to the top of the NFC North food chain and become once again the focus of my disdain. It’s because I don’t like their quarterback. It’s because I don’t like their coach. But primarily it’s because Brett Favre has finally faded from memory.

Goodbye, Brett.  Welcome back the true spirit of Packer Week.

Analysis of the Actual Game

• All eyes will be on Olindo Mare as he replaces one of the NFL’s all time great kickers. The Bears will not be able to stall drives at the forty and kick long field goals. Mare’s range is inside 45. Nothing longer.
• I expect the Packers to follow the trend of recent Bears opponents and give them a steady diet of the run game. Alex Green and Ryan Grant will be given an opportunity to run away from Lance Briggs, especially in the first quarter. If the Bears can’t contain the run and let their safeties stay high, they’ll lose.
• With Craig Steltz on IR, the Bears need to keep their safeties on the field.
• I expect nothing from Kellen Davis and Devin Hester on offense. I’m not insane. I do think the Bears will Jay Cutler look to Alshon Jeffery early and often.
• I expect Dom Capers to actually scheme Brandon Marshall out of this game and I expect Jay Cutler not to care. It should result in 7-10 catches. 80-100 yards. 1 touchdown. 1-2 interceptions.
• The Lions didn’t necessarily dominate the Packers with the run game but they controlled the line of scrimmage most of the evening. The Bears need to do the same. This should be a 25-35 carry afternoon for Matt Forte. Forte has yet to have a signature performance in 2012 and looked ready to burst out against Minnesota. Is Sunday his game to win?
• We know EXACTLY how the Packers want to attack the Bears. Stretch runs. Quick throws over the middle to slot receivers and tight ends. Shots down the sideline to players like Cobb. How do the Bears stop it?

Why This Game is Entirely About Pass Rush

The Bears have suffered injuries this year but Julius Peppers, Izzy Idonije, Shea McClellin, Corey Wootton and most of the interior defensive line will be healthy and active Sunday. If these fellas don’t pressure Rodgers and allow him a safe pocket, they will be torched. And if they can’t exploit the weaknesses along this Packers offensive line, this unit may need to be seriously evaluated at season’s end.

Some Folks Are Depressed By the Bears. Watch.

Thrive/Survive

• Thrive: It is time for Charles Tillman to have another brilliant game. I can’t imagine a scenario where the Bears line up Kelvin Hayden or a hobbled Tim Jennings on Randall Cobb and Cobb has become Aaron Rodgers’ number one target by a wide margin. It’ll be on Peanut to shut him down.
• Survive: Who else? Lovie Smith. This is the most important regular season game the Bears have played since the 2008 finale against the Houston Texans. That day, with the playoffs on the line, the Bears were an embarrassing no show. Another performance such as that and Lovie’s club will no longer have destiny in their own hands for the 2012 campaign. And Lovie may be captaining a sinking ship.

Prediction

Dogfight. Close to the end. And in a surprise moment for the 2012 season, Olindo Mare wins it with a field goal. A win Sunday saves the Bears the season.

Chicago Bears 20, Green Bay Packers 17

It is not as flashy as losing Brian Urlacher – the face of the franchise over the past decade – for the remainder of the regular season. It is not as deflating as losing Jay Cutler – the offense’s only hope for survival – to a concussion. And it may not even be as impacting as losing Tim Jennings – one of the best corners in the sport this season – to some vague necky shoulder thing. But make no mistake about it: putting kicker Robbie Gould on IR is a potentially devastating development for the 2012 Chicago Bears.

Gould is reliable. He is clutch. And he has developed an underrated, accurate leg from distance over the last few seasons. He was borderline-guaranteed points for an offensive attack that has struggled to find them. Did anyone on either sideline doubt Robbie would knock Bears v. Seahawks into overtime as he stared down a forty-six yarder at Soldier Field? Of course not. Because Gould NEVER misses that kick. Not on a Sunday in December. And not in a Division Round game against the same opponent in overtime, 2006.

Most kickers do miss that kick. Olindo Mare certainly has but that’s not to attack a player who has a pretty decent kicking resume in the league. 90% of NFL kickers are an out and out crap shoot. Look at Green Bay. Look at San Francisco. Look no further than the final moments of the AFC Championship Game last year. To be able to line up for a field goal with the game on the line and know with near certainty the ball is traveling through the uprights is a luxury the Bears have shared with few other organizations over the last half decade.

The Bears may not lose games as a result of Robbie Gould’s calf injury. We’ll have to wait for Sundays to know that. But it won’t take an absurd dose of sodium pentothal for Lovie Smith and Dave Toub to admit they’ll be holding their breath on every kick, from every distance, for the next 180 minutes of football and possibly beyond. That’s what happens when you remove one of the best kickers in league history from your sideline.

Many fans have already made their decision on the 2012 Chicago Bears and their long-tenured head coach. Season? Over. Coach? Fired. No, Lovie Smith did not drop five touchdown passes this year. No, Lovie Smith did not attempt to arm tackle Adrian Peterson as an undersized safety. No, Lovie Smith did not injure the Bears QB, best interior offensive lineman, middle linebacker, Pro Bowl corner, kicker…etc. But Lovie Smith is the man in charge. And just as he perhaps received too much credit (accompanied by inane contract extension discussion) for the 7-1 Bears, now the coach is receiving abundant blame for four losses over the last five games.

Is it fair? Nobody cares. This is the NFL. Head coaches are judged by one thing only: wins and losses. At 7-1 the Bears were winning. At 1-4 they are losing. But just as their team does, Lovie Smith and this current crop of Bears coaches control their own destiny. If they win out they will make the postseason. (They may not need all three, of course.) And if they make the postseason as either a wild card or somewhat less probably as the NFC North champion it is unlikely Phil Emery will be looking to hire his first head coach come the dead of winter.

These are not games to dread for Bears fans. These are not games to watch hiding behind an oak tree, grasping your childhood blanky. Are the Bears a great team charging toward a Super Bowl crown? Absolutely not. But are they clearly in the discussion as one of the six best teams in the conference? Absolutely. And its the six best teams in the conference who make the tournament to decide who’ll travel to New Orleans.

We constantly overrate regular season competition as “litmus test” games or “must-wins” or say things like, “We’ll know a lot about this team after this one.” There is no overrating the three-game stretch – beginning with the Green Bay Packers – facing the Chicago Bears. These are the definitive games of the 2012 regular season and may be remembered as the definitive games of Lovie Smith’s tenure. If the Bears win them they’ll play at least one meaningful game in January and Smith will coach in Chicago the next three seasons. If they lose enough of them to miss the postseason, the tenure will be over and we’ll all remember Lovie for “Rex is our quarterback” and a Super Bowl failure.

It will not be determined in the backrooms of Halas Hall or on the pages of the two major dailies. It will be determined on the field. Starting at Soldier Field. Starting against the Green Bay Packers.

Because this is what comes from losing these last two miserable games, now attention must be focused on those teams competing for the wild card slots in the NFC.

Chicago Bears

home Green Bay, at Arizona, at Detroit

Thoughts: Who the hell knows but it seems almost likely the Bears will be 8-6 heading into Detroit with a win-and-you’re-in scenario. If they beat Green Bay at home next weekend their road is considerably easier.

Seattle Seahawks

at Buffalo (Toronto), home San Francisco, home St. Louis

Thoughts: They don’t lose at home and their win in Chicago has clearly reignited their season. I think they’ll be the only contender to run the table and that will buy them an express ticket to a first round beat down in New Jersey. (It looks like you would much rather be the 6 seed than the 5 seed in the NFC.)

Washington Redskins

at Cleveland, at Philadelphia, home Dallas

Thoughts: Two things working against the Redskins right now. (1) The health status of Bob Griffin. Kirk Cousins will be a good player down the road but I’m not sure he is ready lead a team on a playoff charge. (2) Cleveland and Philly are not pushovers right now, especially with Nick Foles.

Dallas Cowboys

home Pittsburgh, home New Orleans, at Washington

Thoughts: They’ve lost to Seattle and Chicago so Dallas needs one of those traffic jam tiebreakers to happen. If Seattle is the team I think will run the table, Dallas is the team I think will slowly walk the table and MAYBE win one of their last three.

Minnesota Vikings

at St. Louis, at Houston, home Green Bay

Thoughts: I think Minnesota’s win over Chicago was their Super Bowl. They will be significant underdogs the rest of the way and I think they’ll be content to finish 8-8 and make their decision at quarterback in the off-season. (They can’t start 2013 with an unopposed Christian Ponder. Someone else must be brought in. Alex Smith?)

I didn’t see it coming. I didn’t see this Bears team playing the kind of game they played Sunday in Minneapolis. Now the last three weeks of the season will be a painful exercise in scoreboard watching. There will be a lot of big picture writing this week but today we’ll focus on the game.

• What is going on with dropping touchdowns? Seriously, when did this start? If the Bears simply catch their touchdowns they most likely win these last two games. Yesterday it was not only Jeffery and Hester dropping touchdowns that haunted the receiving corps. It was also Mashall dropping a key fourth down and Kellen Davis – ever so reliable – dropping a ball over the middle on a key drive. Its hard to criticize Mike Tice’s play calling when Brandon Marshall is the only fella catching the ball.
• There may not have been a bigger play in the game than J’Marcus Webb’s holding call. Emotionally devastating to the drive and team.
• Chris Conte will never tackle Adrian Peterson.
• Kelvin Hayden did not make anyone forget Tim Jennings.
• I don’t think I’ve ever seen a team so content not to throw the ball as Minnesota was Sunday. They had no interest.
• Gabe Carimi may not be a guard if he’s asked to pull. Looked way to slow when whiffing outside.
• One interception on Jeffery. One on Cutler. Cutler was a bit high on a lot of throws but he just received zero help.
• The real shame of Kellen Davis is yesterday we saw how productive a tight end can be in this offense. They practically run 10 plays a game designed for the position.
• Kyle Adams. Stay in bounds.
• Has Eric Weems officially become the kickoff return man? Because if he has, that is idiotic. I don’t care if Devin Hester is struggling. He’s the return man.
• James Brown is going to play before the season is out.
• I wonder if it would have been different game if the Bears had a field goal kicker available.
• Decent game from Matt Forte but yesterday you saw why I didn’t think Forte was worth elite money this summer. Elite money goes to the back on the other sideline.
• Jason Campbell was excellent. That was a positive.

There’s more but I lack the passion to list them. This will be a bizarre Packers Week but one thing is certain: the Bears need Sunday’s game about as much as any regular season game in recent memory.