Last Minute Game Thoughts

• I truly expect to see the Bears re-install Matt Forte into the passing game. Since the return of Earl Bennett and as Cutler has become more comfortable with his receiving corps, Forte has been far less a factor in the screen game and as a checkdown. I think Hanie needs him today and I think he’s the difference.
• I expect a big game from Julius Peppers.
• I really believe a win here will put the Bears in the postseason. It’ll put them a game up on the Lions and next week the Bears have the Chiefs at home while the Lions travel to New Orleans in primetime. That means we could be up two with four to play. Playoffs.

Scoreboard Watch Alert!
Unless you think the Eagles are still a threat (they’re not) the only relevant game to Chicago is Minnesota at Atlanta. I tried to root for Les Frazier’s boys when they underused the now-injured Adrian Peterson and it is too frustrating for words. With Toby Gerhart starting who knows what Les will pull.

Don’t Think the Bears Are a National Franchise?
The Bears v. Raiders will be the nationally televised late afternoon game on Fox, making them a national game six out of the last seven weeks.

Program Note: There will be no Weekend Show! this week due to the holiday. We’ll return to action next week with a full program. Also, only tobijohn recorded a perfect Thanksgiving as almost every one of you picked the 49ers.

It is next to impossible for anyone to truly predict what will happen when the Bears travel to Oakland for a late Sunday afternoon affair in northern California. To make the prediction, you have to know what the Bears are going to receive from Caleb Hanie at the quarterback position and I don’t see how it’s possible to know that. Nevertheless…

WHY DO I LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS THIS WEEK?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.
• I don’t think Caleb Hanie is going to light up the box score with his passing statistics because I’m a believer that much of the Bears passing production is due entirely to Cutler’s ability to make throws only a handful of players in the league can make. What I love about Hanie in this offense is his mobility. When things break down, Hanie will lower his head and take off, moving the chains with his legs.
• If you read my weekly preview column, I rarely lean on the cliched run the ball-stop the run maxim for winning a football game. The Raiders rush for 156.8 yards per game (3rd in football) and allow 131.6 a game (25th) on 5.2 per carry (31st). What does this mean? It means they run it well and don’t stop the run at all and still win more games than they lose. But there is no way Carson Palmer is the same quarterback who diced the Bears secondary a few years ago at Soldier Field and if the Bears gang up on the run they will win this game.
• I think this phone call happened Monday morning:

 Agent: Hey Caleb you know you’re a free agent this winter, right?

Hanie: Uh huh.

Agent: You know that Kevin Kolb stinks and because he played one good quarter for the Eagles last year that dumbo Whisenhunt gave him $65 million, right?

Hanie: Uh huh.

Agent: Play well.

Hanie: Okay.

• What makes this game against the Raiders so tough is their kickers. Sebastian Janikowski can all-but neutralize the Bears kick return game by booting the ball into the tenth row and Shane Lechler is one of the best punters to ever play the game. This is the only time all season where I’ll be surprised to see Hester have a major special teams impact.
• I say this all the time but the passing approach that defeats the Bears is an accurate QB comfortable hitting big receivers in front of the Bears corners when they play 7-10 yards off. That’s not the approach Palmer takes with this offense. He’s been living off the downfield pass. And if the Bears front four shows up and plays huge, Palmer will be a sitting duck.
• Over the first five games (including a suffocating effort against the Falcons) the Bears defense allowed 24.4 points per game. Over the last five games, they’ve allowed 17 per game. They’ve improved by a full touchdown and they are now getting the turnovers which have been the signature of the Lovie Smith era. I think they carry the day.
• Here’s what I can’t get over with Oakland. Their last two home games have been a four touchdown loss to the Kansas City Chiefs and a two touchdown loss to the Denver Broncos.
• I think this game is going to be decided by Matt Forte in the screen game.

Chicago Bears 20, Oakland Raiders 17

___________________________

Your Lines This Week:

BENGALS -7.5 Browns / Texans -3.5 JAGS / Panthers -3.5 COLTS / TITANS -3 Bucs / FALCONS -9 Vikings / RAIDERS -5 Bears / SEAHAWKS -3.5 Redskins / Patriots -4 EAGLES / CHARGERS -6 Broncos / RAMS -2.5 Cardinals / JETS -8.5 Bills / Steelers -10.5 CHIEFS / SAINTS -7 Giants

The Brothers: Jon (22-10-1) – Giants, Texans, Bucs, Jeff (19-13-1) – Bears, Bengals, Jets, Chris (19-13-1) – Panthers, Bengals, Jets

The Commenter Perfect Weeks: tobijohn (4), New Bear in Town (3), FQD1911 (2), SC Dave (2), BigDaddy (2), BossBear90 (2), Ufficio (2),  Michael L (2), Shady (2), MikeV in OR (2), greenbayman (1), Sacramento’s #1 Bears Fan (1), ben in norcal (1), CanadaBear (1), #76 Mongo Murph (1), TheFifth (1), DYLbears23 (1), EnderWiggin (1), IrishSweetness (1), Who is Willie Gault (1), SC Dave (1)

Note: Only two weeks remains in the Picks Contest. Unless eight contestants find themselves with three (3) perfect weeks you will need two (2) perfect weeks to qualify for the postseason the weekend of December 11th.

I don’t want to do it. I doubt I’ll be able to do it vocally. I’ll probably do it with a clenched fist and a few extras beers than normal. It will make me a bit sick. Today, Thanksgiving Day 2011, I’ll be rooting for the Green Bay Packers.

On this day it is customary to give thanks and so I give thanks to each and every one of you who has spent even a second on this site. It is my passion, my first love, and I hope to keep filling space with my ramblings for years to come.

Also today…

• I don’t consider the Dallas Cowboys a serious wildcard threat but it wouldn’t hurt having the Miami Dolphins knock them off this afternoon. A 6-5 Cowboys teams would only get into the postseason by winning the NFC East.
• Root for the San Francisco 49ers. Why? Because aside from the quest for a perfect regular season, we’d want the Packers to have something to play for when they meet the Lions the final week of the season. Keeping the Niners close is a good thing.

BONUS PICKS CONTEST ALERT! 
We’ll be doing the Picks Contest as always this weekend but we’re giving you an opportunity to get another notch in your belt. You must get all three Thanksgiving games right to be credited with a perfect week. All picks must be in by 12:30 PM EST. Here are the lines:

Packers -6 LIONS / COWBOYS -7 Dolphins / RAVENS -3.5 49ers

The Commenter Perfect Weeks: New Bear in Town (3), tobijohn (3), FQD1911 (2), SC Dave (2), BigDaddy (2), BossBear90 (2), Ufficio (2),  Michael L (2), Shady (2), MikeV in OR (2), greenbayman (1), Sacramento’s #1 Bears Fan (1), ben in norcal (1), CanadaBear (1), #76 Mongo Murph (1), TheFifth (1), DYLbears23 (1), EnderWiggin (1), IrishSweetness (1), Who is Willie Gault (1), SC Dave (1)

The Bears turned the corner on the 2011 season, veering onto Favorite Lane from Underdog Boulevard. They haven’t just been winning games. They’ve been whipping teams at the line of scrimmage, scoring points in huge chunks and assuming a position near the very top of the NFL’s table. Then Johnny Knox fell down. Cason intercepted the Cutler slant and took off down the sideline. Jay decided a touchdown was not going to happen and, in slowing the play down, broke his thumb.

Now on the talk radio shows across the country’s airwaves, on the pages of both Chicago dailies and in the internet space occupied by the Peter Kings of the world the Chicago Bears are being relegated back to the realm of the disrespected. Suddenly the quarterback who was having a tremendous season in almost total anonymity is being noted as the straw that stirs the drinks. Without Cutler (the pundits will have you believe) the Bears are no longer a contender and may be a longshot for the postseason. They ignore their running game – one of the best in the sport. Ignore their special teams – THE best in the sport. Ignore their defense – a unit that has been stabilized by LoveRod’s moves at the safety spot and have now rediscovered their edge.

Somehow a team with a five-game winning streak has their backs against the wall as Caleb Hanie takes the steering wheel of this Bears bus. There isn’t a Bears fan alive that wouldn’t rather see Cutler taking the snaps in Oakland Sunday. I staked whatever bloggy reputation I’ve accrued over the years on my support of the Cutler trade, even during Jay’s low times, and now we’re finally seeing what this guy is capable of when the gentlemen up front give him a few seconds to load his cannon and fire on the enemy. (Yes that sounds gross but I’m not deleting it.) Cutler is the greatest quarterback this organization has ever employed and I’m confident he is going to win a championship in Chicago.

But I have to admit there’s a certain thrill to Hanie’s entrance. When Cutler throws a complete pass, fans respond with a pumped fist and a knowing smile. Franchise quarterbacks are expected to perform like franchise quarterbacks and most of us are relieved to have one. With every Hanie completion there will be a sense of genuine excitement and overwhelming relief. He has the opportunity to do what the rest of the 2011 Chicago Bears have already done: inspire the city and shock the football world.

And when is the last time a team on a five-game win streak has sounded the way the Bears sound? They sound angry, defensive, motivated. Urlacher says they have to be better on defense. Lovie says the offense has to be better at running the ball. The Bears have been given reason to recommit themselves to the 2011 season not out of the desperation of struggling on the field but out of the necessity of injury. The Bears cannot and will not rest on their laurels. They cannot spend a minute enjoying their winning streak. The Bears know they MUST IMPROVE if they intend to make the postseason. They fifty roster members not playing the quarterback position must transition from a very good team to a championship team.

When the Chargers game ended I thought to myself, “Now they can lose a tough one on the road in Oakland and be fine.” But over the last forty-eight hours my mentality has gone in the opposite direction. Now I want this one. Not just for Caleb Hanie but also to reward this club’s current mentality. I want this one almost as bad as I wanted the Lions rematch and I don’t remember the last regular season game I wanted as bad as the Lions rematch. I want a win Sunday in Oakland.

We are not going to harp on the Jay Cutler injury around here. For the foreseeable future Caleb Hanie is the starting quarterback of the Chicago Bears and no expansive word count columns from me are going to change that. Here’s what I saw Sunday.

• I wrote about it earlier in the year and was maligned by some commenters but Nick Roach is turning into a terrific linebacker. He’s no longer a placeholder, the third guy. He’s a playmaker now.
• I am hearing a lot of criticism of the fake punt Lovie called late. I guess I’m in the minority because I loved the call and the Bears had about seven open receivers on the play. I like that kind of aggressiveness with a lead. That’s how championship teams act.
• Frank Reich.
• My MVP of the game is Tyler Clutts, one of the most underrated Jerry Angelo signings of his career. When Pat Mannelly went down for the year with a ruptured ACL, Clutts handled the long-snapping duties with ease. When long snappers go down, teams often struggle executing extra points. The Bears did not miss a beat thanks to Clutts.
• Roy Williams is running crisp routes and catching the ball. Caleb Hanie is going to need him to continue doing so.
• I think Mike Martz needs to start working in more pitches to Matt Forte. The offensive line is far better blocking in space than out-toughing big defensive tackles up the gut. Get Forte outside and let him make tacklers miss.
• Henry Melton sometimes looks like he can be the best defensive tackle in the sport.
• Jeff Hostetler.
• I don’t use pop culture references in my sportswriting because I think it’s easy and Bill Simmons made his career on it. But I started hearing Lloyd Bridges in Airplane! watching Peanut Tillman cover Vincent Jackson, thinking I picked the wrong day to quit sniffing glue. After a week of being touted for Pro Bowl consideration, Peanut struggled mightily to stop VJ from doing anything.
• Peanut did record one classic Peanut ball punch. I’ve never seen anything like Tillman’s ability to force fumbles.
• I’ve never seen a coach do what Norv Turner did yesterday. He wanted to challenge the Marion Barber down by contact late and instead of just challenging it, he burns a timeout. Then, AFTER the timeout, he challenged it. And lost that challenge because the play WAS NOT CLOSE. So Norv burns his last two timeouts for no conceivable reason.
• Tom Brady.
• Someone explain to me why any team would punt the ball to Devin Hester. I’m not writing this rhetorically, either. I need to see some data now. Because it keeps happening and Hester keeps not being tackled. Is there some moronic nerd stat that I don’t know about saying teams actually benefit from kicking the ball to Hester?
• Nice to see Corey Graham and Brandon Meriweather making contributions. Somehow I like the Bears secondary depth.
• Aside from the falling down, Johnny Knox played an excellent game.
• One point on Cutler’s injury. I can’t think of a way I’d rather see the franchise quarterback get injured. On an interception that was entirely Johnny Knox’s fault, Cutler saved a touchdown with his hustle and aggressiveness. If Favre did what Cutler did, it would have been the lead story on every highlight show for a month.
• When a safety is struggling in Lovie’s defense, there is usually no deep coverage on the go route. Chris Conte is a step or two away from making big plays in the pass game. He looks quite comfortable back there.
• The football finds Major Wright.
• Give Chargers tackle Brandyn Dombrowski some credit. Even when he didn’t have help on the outside, he played Julius Peppers well all afternoon.
• How does Philip Rivers consider what he did “throwing the ball away”? Why would he not release the ball out of bounds? Rivers is having a terrible year and plays like that make it quite obvious his issues are not entirely physical.
• I wanted to write about Earl Bennett but he’s just a good receiver. Every week. He’s becoming the most consistent wide receiver we’ve seen around here since Marty Booker. If you pair him with a real ten-catch-a-game #1 you will have some serious weapons on this roster.
• It has become very apparent that Devin Hester is becoming a smaller and smaller part of what the Bears do on offense.
• DirecTV and the NFL need to solve some things. Chargers at Bears was the national game yesterday, airing in New York on CBS 2. So this means the DirecTV channel airing the game is blacked out. Because the Bengals and Ravens game went down to the wire, we were forced to miss the first two drives of the game. I get blacking out the DirecTV feed for the local teams because local TV stays with every snap of those games. But folks pay far too much money for the NFL and DirecTV to force us to miss full drives of our favorite teams. If ALL the local networks aren’t on the national game yet, you MUST free up the DirecTV channel until they are.
• The Bears are 7-3 and a serious case can be made for them being the second best team in football when the QB is healthy. Lovie says he expects Cutler back before the end of the regular season. I may be crazy but I think he’ll play Christmas night in Green Bay. The Bears need to grind out victories now and put themselves in the postseason. It seems Jay Cutler’s toughness is so often the talking point around Halas Hall. Now the toughness of the other fifty-two men on the roster is the story.

UPDATE: Lovie Smith just stated during his Monday press conference that the Bears expect Cutler to return prior to the end of the regular season.

There is no way to positively spin losing Jay Cutler for the next six-to-eight weeks, should that turn out to be the result of his broken thumb. The Chicago Bears have become one of the best teams in football and recently, as opposing defenses have ganged up to stop Matt Forte, the primary reason has been Cutler. He has learned to maneuver around shaky pass protection and found a rhythm with his receiving corps, even including Roy Williams in the mix against the Chargers Sunday. Quite simply he is playing the position as well as anyone ever has for this organization.

And now he’s gone. The difference between six and eight weeks is drastic, however. Six weeks means he could return that second weekend in January for the wildcard round of the postseason. Eight weeks means the Bears would have to win two road games with Caleb Hanie for Cutler to return and face his buddy Aaron up at Lambeau. (And if Hanie wins two road playoff games, there will surely be those clamoring for him to keep his job.)

This injury changes the season. It changes the expectations. The 7-3 Chicago Bears are in the thick of the NFC playoff picture but getting to play a 17th game will be an uphill battle without their offensive leader and one of the best quarterbacks in the sport. Is it a long shot that Hanie can win four of the Bears remaining six games and cement them a postseason spot? Not in the slightest. The way the schedule finishes, one can easily conclude Hanie will be the best QB on the field for four of the final six games. He is better than Palko. Better than Tebow. Better than Tarvaris. Better than Ponder.

The expectations change and so does the pressure. Mike Martz has to reform the offensive system, simplify things and make protection the number one goal. The offensive line has to win the one-on-one battles inside and give Matt Forte holes to dash through. And the defense. Oh, the defense. They must become the core of this team once again. They must dominate opponents like they did last week against Detroit. They can no longer expect the offensive output they’ve been receiving and must treat every drive like they’re protecting a six-point lead with a minute to play.

Caleb Hanie will be the focus but it is incumbent upon every member of this roster to fill the void left by Cutler’s absence. If you believed this team was capable of winning the Super Bowl, and I certainly did, put those thoughts on hold for the moment. The goal now is the postseason. And that road starts Sunday in Oakland.

As always, I am here to provide your one-stop shopping for scoreboard watching.

Carolina Panthers over Detroit Lions

I think the Lions may be in something of a free fall and losing this game just four days before meeting the Packers on Thanksgiving would be the nail in their coffin.

Washington over Dallas

It’d be nice to see the Cowboys blow one of these games they should win but I don’t see it happening here.

Tennessee over Atlanta

Huge. I’ve said it many times but it’s worth repeating: the Falcons have an easy schedule the rest of the way and the Bears will consider their week one victory the biggest win of the season. Dropping the Falcons back another game here would do wonders.

I should be dropping Tweet bombs throughout the early games. You can read them on the right side of this page or follow me on Twitter by CLICKING HERE.

On this week’s show: Cameron Worrell dishes on the changes in the secondary, Peanut Tillman’s success and playing for special teams coach Dave Toub. Also the Reverend rants against, who else….me.

Your Lines This Week

FALCONS -5.5 Titans / DOLPHINS -2 Bills / RAVENS -7 Bengals / Jaguars -1 BROWNS / LIONS -7 Panthers / Cowboys -7.5 REDSKINS / 49ERS -9.5 Cardinals / RAMS -2 Seahawks / BEARS -3.5 Chargers / GIANTS -4 Eagles / PACKERS -14.5 Bucs / PATRIOTS -14.5 Chiefs / Raiders -2 VIKINGS

The Brothers: Jon (20-9-1), Jeff (17-12-1), Chris (17-12-1)

The Commenter Perfect Weeks: New Bear in Town (3), tobijohn (3), FQD1911 (2), SC Dave (2), BigDaddy (2), BossBear90 (2), Ufficio (2),  Michael L (2), greenbayman (1), Sacramento’s #1 Bears Fan (1), ben in norcal (1), CanadaBear (1), #76 Mongo Murph (1), Shady (1), TheFifth (1), DYLbears23 (1), EnderWiggin (1), IrishSweetness (1), MikeV in OR (1), Who is Willie Gault (1)

Three weeks remain in the Picks Contest Regular Season. Currently there are eight qualifiers for the postseason. You must have two perfect weeks under your belt to qualify.

On the surface this game looked to be a complete bore. But now the Jets are floundering at the bottom of the AFC wildcard pack and the Denver Broncos, led by the angelic Timothy Tebow, are running an offense that has not been seen consistently at the professional level since Yale’s Walter Camp famously threw a forward pass to Oliver Thompson to beat Princeton in 1876. It is a fascinating football exercise, pitting a prehistoric scheme against one of the more complex defensive minds around. And I know I won’t be the only one rooting for the fella from Florida to drop to one knee a few more times tonight.

I’ll be Tweeting for the duration of the ballgame. You can view those comments on the right side of this page or by following me on Twitter by CLICKING HERE.

Norv Turner’s San Diego Chargers come to Soldier Field Sunday desperate to salvage what is left of their season. They’ll meet a Chicago Bears team riding a four-game win streak and on a grand emotional high. Can the Bears make it five straight? I think so.

WHY DO I LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS THIS WEEK?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.
• The Bears front can wreak havoc on the Chargers offensive line, forcing Phil Rivers into the bad decisions that have defined their season to this point. Rivers seems to put half a dozen balls up for grabs each week and the Bears secondary seems to be finding their takeaway spirit. What the Bears can’t do is sit comfortably off the receivers and allow Rivers to develop his own rhythm.
• I watched the Raiders’ Michael Bush run almost rampant through the Chargers defense. Matt Forte struggled to find holes against the Lions (not his fault) but I don’t see him having back-to-back poor efforts in 2011.  He goes well over 100 yards Sunday.
• I do think the Bears must be wary of Antonio Gates ruining the game on them. Gates has not been able to stay consistently healthy but when he’s out on the field he’s still one of the best tight ends around. LoveRod looks like they’ve fixed the deep threat situation as the tandem of Conte/Wright have allowed a single passing TD but Rivers is more than capable of finding Gates behind the linebackers.
• The Chargers have notoriously bad special teams. Notoriously bad. And the Bears continue to be the best special teams units in the league. I can’t imagine Norv will kick the ball to Devin Hester but then again I can’t imagine half the things Norv does prior to his doing them.
• It’ll be interesting to see how defenses approach Earl Bennett moving forward. Over the last two ballgames, Bennett has clearly emerged as Jay Cutler’s primary target, living in the middle of the field. Once Bennett begins pulling the opponent’s number one corner on a consistent basis, I expect the field to open wide for Knox, Roy and whomever else the Bears line up out wide.
• I’m not getting worried yet but I’m not in love with Adam Podlesh’s inconsistent distance on punts or Robbie Gould all of a sudden becoming a 75/25 proposition on field goals between 40-45 yards. Clean it up, fellas.
• If I recall correctly, Cutler and Rivers did not care for each other when they were divisional opponents. I am waiting for Jay to put up one of those 400 yard efforts. It’s going to happen. Will it be this Sunday in front of his old pal?
• The two guys in the Chargers secondary that stand out to me are corner Quentin Jammer and Eric “Have You Seen how Much I Get Paid” Weddle.  Jammer wants the ball and often sells out in order to get his hands on it.  Weddle is having a terrific year, justifying his huge money contract, but I maintain he can be attacked over the top. The Bears have to test both these guys by allowing one of our speedy receivers to stretch the field. Go max protect, give Cutty a pocket and chuck the thing a million yards to either Hester or Knox. See what happens.
• What is also strange about the Chargers is I’ve seen every snap of their games against the Jets, Chiefs and Raiders and I don’t get it. They looked like a Super Bowl contender for the first two quarters against the Jets and like the worst team in the league for the last two quarters.  Rivers was taking a snap to center the ball for a game-winning field goal against the Chiefs. A win that would have proven a nice tonic for the Jets loss and possibly stabilized their season. But of course he fumbled it and the Chiefs won. And against the Raiders, SD couldn’t stop the run and let receivers run free in their secondary. I have a feeling the Chargers will have a new head coach in 2012 and that guy is going to add toughness.
• I don’t see the Bears falling into the letdown game trap. I wrote last week that I believed that everything in Bears universe seemed to be leading up to the Detroit rematch and the team was unmistakably amped. Now after a dominant victory they face a non-conference opponent and the prevailing wisdom in the gambling world is the Bears might not have the required energy level. If this game were in San Diego, I’d be worried. But I don’t think the Soldier Field will allow any dip in energy from this Bears team.

Chicago Bears 33, San Diego Chargers 20