We are all about accountability here at DaBearsBlog and I thought this would be a fun time to see how my preseason predictions are turning out. I shot for 50% and I hit that on the nose.  I’ve wrapped a shitload of thoughts about the Bears and the whole of the NFL into the column.

1. Let’s start at home.  The Bears will go 10-6 or better.  They’ll make the postseason and win (at least) one playoff game. Looking pretty good here, boys.
2. Lance Briggs will play for them all year. Knock on wood.  2-0. By the way, remember when Lance Briggs’ contract was a big story in Chicago? I don’t think it’s been mentioned once anywhere since the season started.
3. Jay Cutler will be mentioned in the MVP race come November. I got this one wrong.  It’s Matt Forte who is in the thick of the MVP race should Aaron Rodgers get hurt.  2-1.
4. Rod Marinelli and Lovie Smith will realize they’re starting two strong safeties in Week 2 when Drew Brees beats them deep a few times.  They’ll rectify the situation in short order.  I am currently taking a bow.  This prediction is downright terrific.  Brees did beat them deep but it took Chris Harris’ expert performance in the Detroit game to make significant changes.  Conte and Wright have allowed only one passing TD when playing together.  I take it.  3-1.
5. The Miami Dolphins have a coach the owner doesn’t want and a QB the coach doesn’t want.  They’ll finish 4-12.  4-1, baby! Those people who thought Miami was going 0-16 simply weren’t watching their first 7 games of the year. Miami could easily be a four or five win team at this point but they’ve been awful at the end of games.
6. The Bears will injure Matthew Stafford’s shoulder.  (You can’t even get odds on this in Vegas, it’s such a no brainer.)  4-2. Though I like that I predicted this. The Bears defensive performance against Stafford and the Lions offense Sunday was a thing of beauty.  They made a formal decision that not a single yard could be gained without inflicting punishment on the man gaining that yard.  When they play that way, they can beat every single team in football.
7. When Jim Harbaugh is losing a lot of games with the Niners around mid-season, the discussion will be whether he’s tanking 2011 intentionally to bring Andrew Luck there in 2012.  4-3. If you knew the 49ers were going to be a good team, you knew the following: (1) Mike Singletary was the most inept head coach in the history of the sport. (2) Jim Harbaugh could instill his own toughness even with a shortened offseason. (3) Alex Smith’s career could be salvaged by good coaching. (4) This was one of the best collection of defensive players around.
8. This will be the year the Colts miss the playoffs.  (Special advance prediction: they make the playoffs as the #2 seed in 2012.)  Bing, bang, boing.  5-3. I believe I made this prediction before I knew the severity of Peyton Manning’s neck injury. If I were the Colts, and I in fact not the Colts, I would draft Andrew Luck and see what I can get on the trade market for Manning. Wouldn’t a franchise that thinks they’re a QB away (Redskins, Niners, maybe even the Jets) give up a king’s ransom for the greatest regular season QB of all-time? Imagine if the Colts could go into 2012 with Andrew Luck and the tenth or twelfth pick as well.
9. The Jets will lose opening night to the Cowboys, causing both camps to overreact to the result. 5-4 but I should have won this one. Why in God’s name was I so interested in the Jets v. Cowboys opening Sunday nighter? This was an interesting night that actually spoke to both of the seasons these two teams would have. The Jets were dominated by the Cowboys – signaling defensive flaws they’ve yet to rectify – but Tony Romo decided to Romo the game away.
10. The Jets will realize the New Meadowlands sucks as they lose prior to reaching the AFC Championship Game.  The Jets won’t be getting a playoff game in the New Meadowlands.  I’m 5-5. Here’s my problem with coaches who say too much.  After a while, it just becomes noise. Rex Ryan spent the summer imploring other coaches to beat the Patriots for him and then allowed the Patriots to steamroll his club twice this season. The Jets coach spends far too much time telling us how good his team is and far too little time coaching his team.
11. The Giants won’t be able to blame the stadium for finishing 7-9 or worse.  They can blame failing to re-sign the security outlets for a shaky, turnover-prone QB.  I really see this team and making the largest plummet in the league.  5-6. I am wrong here though I think the Giants are going to struggle with the remainder of their schedule. If they don’t beat the Eagles Sunday night, I can see them coming into a Week 17 date with the Cowboys that may decide the division/playoff destinies of both teams.
12. Six playoff teams in NFC: Eagles, Saints, Bears, Falcons, Cardinals, Packers. (4 out of 6 look good) I have to admit I’m surprised the Eagles are not the best team in the NFC East. Whatever has gone wrong with that team is just not a matter of X’s and O’s. Losing to John Skelton and Arizona at home? How is that even possible for a team with this much talent?
13. Six playoff teams in AFC: Jets, Pats, Chargers, Steelers, Ravens, Titans. (4 out of 6 look good) The Texans are in the pole position down South but the Titans are still in it and now have the better quarterback. The last three Chargers loss, one more unexplainable than the next, will slide the Raiders into the postseason.
14. My darkhorses.  NFC: Redskins.  AFC: Bills. You know, this looked pretty good after the fourth week of the season. I know the bulk of the NFL is writing the Buffalo Bills off but guess what? I’m not. Yet. If the Bills can win down in Miami, they’ll set up a game with the Jets at the Meadowlands that could decide the playoff fates of both. I watched every snap of their first game and I think Chan Gailey cost his team the game. Chan does this weird thing where he has Ryan Fitzpatrick throw bombs down the sideline on third-and-shorts instead of doing what the offense does best and attack underneath. He took the blame the first time. He’ll do better the second time.
15. No, I didn’t pick the Texans.  Because adding Wade Phillips to your staff, signing Danieal Manning and changing the position of your best defensive player don’t add up to division titles in my book.  5-7. Like I said before, the entrance of Matt Leinart into the race gives Tennessee a real chance. Leinart, however, is being given a true chance to revitalize his career. If he can win games down the stretch and play well doing it, Leinart might find himself competing for a starting job in someone’s camp next summer.
16. MVP: Phil Rivers.  5-8. Should I take two losses for this one? I don’t like the omen of insulting Phil Rivers the week he’s coming to Chicago but I can’t figure his season at all. The fumbled snap against Kansas City, the horrible pick sixes against Green Bay, the dead second half against the Jets…etc. He is either injured or he’s lost all control of Norv’s offense.
17. Tarvaris Jackson will not make it through half the season as the starting QB in Seattle. 6-8. I still can’t conceive of a single reason Pete Carroll chose to let Matt Hasselbeck leave town. For Tarvaris and Whitehurst? Does he really believe either of those guys are the answer at the most important position in all of sports?
18. Same for Donovan McNabb in Minnesota. 7-8. This was easy. Donovan McNabb has been done for 3-5 years, depending on who you ask. But having watched Les Frazier coach a few games this year, I don’t think he’s long for the job either. Frazier seems lost most times and his blatant refusal to make Adrian Peterson the centerpiece of his offense is mind blowing.
19. Same for John Beck.  Sexy.  Rexy. 8-8. What I didn’t predict here was that Rex would be the initial starter, Beck would replace HIM and then Beck would get benched for Rex. If I had predicted that, I’d be far happier with myself.
20. After winning their division narrowly, the Texans will be embarrassed by the Pats in the first round of the playoffs (at home) and Gary Kubiak will find himself unemployed with 24 hours.  Good writing here, huh?  I don’t pick the Texans to make the playoffs above but then I put them in the playoffs here.  Call it a push. Because even if Leinart keeps the Texans afloat and puts them in the playoffs, I can’t imagine a scenario where he beats the Ravens, Steelers, Jets or Bengals defense on wildcard weekend.
21. Devin Hester will lead the league in kickoffs returned from inside the end zone.  And it won’t be close. Someone should be in charge of keeping this statistic. I think the most overrated storyline heading into this season was the moving of the ball on kickoffs. Sure it has resulted in more touchbacks but it hasn’t affected my enjoyment of the games. I would also love to know if injuries on returns are down. (Wasn’t that the point of moving the kicks to begin with?)
22. Kyle Orton will have a productive half-year at QB and still get benched.  (Another bet Vegas won’t even take.)  9-8. When you have Tebus of Nazareth, there is nothing you can do. Kyle Orton’s career is rather fascinating, isn’t it? Drafted by the Bears, finds himself the starter in 2005. Wins a bunch of games and is replaced, at halftime, of a game he is winning, by Rex Grossman. Dealt to Denver. Has sensational year with Josh McDaniels. Enters 2011 as the starter as is replaced by Tim Tebow, whom John Fox decides it would be better if he doesn’t throw the football. 
23. The Buffalo Bills will allow more sacks than any team in football but also be fun as hell to watch.  I am not taking a loss on this yet.  The Bills offensive line has been in free fall as they’ve sent three or four starters to IR.  The end of this season could get ugly for Ryan Fitzpatrick.  I do wonder if the Buffalo Bills could have paid Fitz half that sixty million dollar contract if they were negotiating now.
24. Three surprising teams from 2010 will take a step back: Tampa, St. Louis, Kansas City.  All because of slightly regressing QB play.  10-8. I nailed all three of these. Josh Freeman has been absolutely awful for the Bucs, essentially throwing three picks a week. Sam Bradford has battled health issues but he’s also struggling with the downfield throws the Rams avoided like gingivitis last season. Matt Cassell is not good. He was not good in New England. He is not good now.
25. Steve Smith will realize Cam Newton is not capable of being an NFL starter yet and try to get out of Carolina before the trade deadline.  10-9. Just dead wrong, although much of the Cam Newton hoopla has receded in recent weeks. Cam is a touch pass away from being an elite NFL thrower and Steve Smith has to be considered alongside Calvin Johnson and Wes Welker for the All-Pro team.
26. The Browns will move from 5-11 to 8-8 and become the trendy pick in 2012. 10-10. I can’t remember what I liked about the Browns a few months ago but I was wrong. What amazes me about the Browns is just how little talent they have on the roster. How long does Mike Holmgren have to keep this GM charade going before he just walks down to the sideline and starts calling plays?
27. The Raiders will move from 8-8 to 5-11 and no one will be surprised.  And I drop below .500 to 10-11.  I like the Raiders. They are tough up front on defense and when Darren McFadden is healthy they can be one of the most physically dominating rush offenses in the game. If Carson Palmer turns out to be a viable starter again, I have to assume he was tanking seasons with the Bengals because he looked capable of throwing triple-digit interceptions last season.
28. More Bears stuff!  The Bears will have a top 6 defense in both yards and points allowed.  10-12.
29. Jay Cutler’s season numbers: 61%, 3,485 yards, 29 TD, 11 INT.  I am going to give myself a win here because this is basically what he’s projecting to.  11-12. I am still routinely amazed by Cutler’s arm strength.  I can’t imagine there’s another quarterback in the league with his kind of fastball.
30. Matt Forte will lead the Bears in reception yards.  12-12. It sure seems clear that Earl Bennett could have recorded one of those 100 catch seasons we’ve been dreaming about around here if he had stayed healthy throughout the first two months.
31. I will spend most of the season trying to come up with a good Rookie of the Year joke for Dane Sanzenbacher.  (Rosinbagger!)  13-12. That was a softball, I know, but I’m slumping. I have a feeling Great Dane’s role is going to be reduced more and more each week until we find him on the inactive list. It’s just a feeling.
32. The Bears will use three plays to cover early offensive line deficiencies: the quick toss, the screen and the draw.  They’ll be effective.  Let’s call this one a push. They’ve done some of these things, sure, but the truth is the Bears are thriving offensively based on their run game.
33. Julio Jones will have been worth it for the Atlanta Falcons.  He’s the year’s top rookie.  I’m not taking the loss here yet. Jones is finally coming on for the Falcons and they’ve got a pretty easy schedule down the stretch. Right now here are my rankings for Rookie of the Year: DeMarco Murray, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Jones, AJ Green.
34. Offensive Player of the Year: Chris Johnson.  Get off my knob.  Did you see this coming with Johnson?  13-13. Johnson is not only wasting the Titans money but he’s statistically one of the worst starting tailbacks in the league. He is also having the kind of year that must drive Matt Forte and Ray Rice absolutely insane. The last thing these guys want is their respective GM’s saying, “Look what that guy did when we paid him.” I think both Forte and Rice are destined for the franchise tag.
35. Defensive Player of the Year: Julius Peppers. Peppers is having an amazing year but I think he’ll unfortunately be judged almost exclusively by his sack totals. I think Pep belongs in an exclusive category with Revis and Ware.  His valuable is almost incalculable.
36. The teams I’ll be rooting against hardest: (1) Packers (2) Eagles (3) Jets. Well the Lions have quickly risen to #2 on this list. I am still impressed by how much I dislike the Detroit Lions. I wrote last year (I think) that the Vikings had replaced the Packers as the team I despised the most in the NFL. I still value the Bears v. Packers rivalry but I held genuine hatred for the Vikes. When Favre left town and the Vikes started stinking again, there was a hatred void in my soul. And wouldn’t you know it? The Lions and their cheap shot bullshit and annoying coach filled it with ease.
37. The teams I’ll be rooting for outside Chicago: none. I’ll be rooting for the Bills to get back into the playoff race. I’d really love for them to beat the Jets in two weeks.
38. I’m already regretting not picking the Colts to make the playoffs. I stayed strong.
39. 38 is enough.  Isn’t it?
40. Oh yeah!  Super Bowl prediction: Chicago Bears 31, New England Patriots 30. I don’t mind this prediction, even with the Packers runaway success. I like this Patriots team as they’re currently constituted. They remind me of those makeshift defenses Bill used to win with right down to using the wide receiver in the secondary. As for the Bears, the road to the Super Bowl (should they make the postseason) will be difficult without the games at home. But I don’t think they’d be a substantial underdog at New Orleans, New Jersey, Dallas, San Francisco…etc. Beating the Packers at Lambeau will be the name of the game. 

About a week ago I went on the Twitter and wrote something to this effect: Jerry Angelo’s front office work for the Chicago Bears over the last three years has been significantly better than the work done by Belichick in New England and the Polians in Indianapolis.  It created something of a stir.  I was called many bad names. And calmly I responded to each of my naysayers with, “Please go look at the data.”  The responses were either an apologetic “you were right” or nothing at all (which I took to similar effect).

There are three ways to add talent to an NFL roster: draft, trade, free agency. (Duh) In the last few years Angelo has drafted a now top five NFL back, traded for a top ten quarterback and signed in free agency the premiere 4-3 end in the game. That’s pretty darn good.  The collection of players he’s compiled led by the man he hired to be head coach, won the 2010 NFC North division title, went to the NFC Championship Game and they are a better team in 2011.

Nobody is going to argue that Jerry Angelo is the best General Manager in the sport.  He’s not.  But because the Chicago media operates with a Negativity First platform all of Angelo’s failures receive front page publicity while his successes are relegated to footnotes below the TV listings.  Yes, Angelo has struggled with his first-round selections but he’s also found Matt Forte and Devin Hester in the second round after the entirety of the league passed on them.  (We may not have the elite wide receiver some teams have but NOBODY ELSE has a Hester.) Yes, Adam Archuelta was a nightmare but Tim Jennings and Amobi Okoye have been flat-out steals. Yes, the offensive line remains a work in-progress but that is less the result of bad talent evaluation and more the result of having to rebuild the entire unit following the demise of the veteran-laden 2006 unit that included Fred Miller, Ruben Brown and a hanging onto his prime Olin Kreutz.

We’d all like that elite wide receiver, an Ed Reed-type at safety and Anthony Munoz protecting the blindside. But there isn’t a current team in the NFL that has everything.  The Packers, the current gold standard, have severe defensive deficiencies and a mediocre-at-best offensive line.  But their quarterback has strung together the most impressive twenty-game span the position has ever seen and many of their deficiencies have been carefully hidden behind that.  Look at how we idolized those organizations in Indy and New England.  The former was an injury to their quarterback away from going WINLESS and the latter has a patent pending on losing playoff games at home.  And look at what happened to the Philadelphia Eagles when they made the type of free agency splash fans clamor for.  They lost to a quarterback who played at Fordham.

With the heart of the defense (Pep, Lach, Briggs, Nut) having a few more years before their window closes, the Bears are only a few pieces away (if that) from winning the big one in February.  Hell, right now you could argue they firmly belong in that collection of next-tier teams below the Packers and I would relish the opportunity to see them in the conference title game at Lambeau this year.  Maybe I’m a minority opinion but I like the collection of guys Jerry Angelo has found and I would grade his tenure as GM with a plus sign.  And I think he could be one offseason away from cementing his legacy in the city.

I have argued for years, into the deaf ears of God knows who on God knows what bar stool, the NFL schedule should open with each team playing their four non-conference games.  These games have no bearing on playoff tiebreaking scenarios and would enable organizations to find a rhythm on both sides of the ball with the slightest win-loss stakes they’ll see all year long. (I understand no NFL game has a low win-loss stake but these games mean the least, comparably.) This is essentially how the major college conferences organize their schedules, giving programs an opportunity to work out kinks before playing the more heavily weighted conference schedule.  Not a lot of logistical elements are sound when it comes to the NCAA.  This one is.

The Bears survived their difficult early-season schedule, losing games to New Orleans and Green Bay that I’d love to see replayed today. (I continue to say that there isn’t a team in the league that could have survived Detroit on that Monday night.) They released their aggression from the false-start laden evening effort in Detroit by pounding the Vikings, running the Bucs out of London, delivering an inspired effort in Philadelphia and manhandling the Lions offense is the ultimate act of revenge.  They are now 6-3, in pole position for the NFC wildcard, and look like one of the handful of teams out there that can challenge the Green Bay Packers for the Halas Trophy and conference control.  The Packer success is, in fact, the only thing keeping the city of Chicago from being engulfed in dreams of the Super Bowl.  Folks know the road to ultimate glory will be on the road.

Now the AFC West stands in their way.  In the next four weeks, in a truly bizarre scheduling occurrence, the Bears will host the Chargers, travel to Oakland, host the Chiefs and travel to Denver. Who are these teams?  Let me tell you.

San Diego’s super Chargers are one of the sport’s true enigmas.  They are a talented group, specifically on offense, but their quarterback is having his worst season as a professional.  Rivers won’t care how far Chris Conte plays from the line of scrimmage; he’s throwing the ball deep.

The Oakland Raiders are now the Carson Palmer Raiders and that means one thing to me: the Bears are going to have 3-5 opportunities that afternoon to intercept the football.  Oakland has clearly been missing star tailback Darren McFadden of late but they are strong up front on defense and will be a playoff team once the former Arkansas star returns.

Kansas City is going to come to Soldier Field and be beaten brutally for two reasons.  (1) I’m going to be there.  (2) They’re not any good.

The Broncos game would have been all about Cutler’s return to Denver but Jay is a distant memory to an organization currently being led by Tebus of Nazareth.  If the Bears defense, with all their speed, is defeated by a team running an option offense, I may hang up my NFL fan boots.

These four teams arrive on the schedule at a time when the Bears are playing their best football and a 3-1 stretch will all but assure our boys in Chicago a berth in the postseason.  (The Bears may be favored in all four though I’m suspecting a bit of a letdown this weekend against SD.) The wildcard position looks like it is going to mean a trip to either New Orleans or New Jersey.  A vaunted opponent in an iconic setting.  Can the Bears win at either location?  Absolutely.  And if the Bears are not just a good team but a Super Bowl contender, they will showcase their wares against one of the shakiest divisions in the entirety of the league over the next month.

He’s never gotten enough credit.

When folks write the history of the Lovie Smith era in Chicago, specifically on defense, the text will inevitably start with the men in the middle: Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs.  They are the perennial All-Pros, the jersey sellers, the stars.  We’ll then slide perhaps to the high-price free agent acquisition Julius Peppers – a man who happens to be worth even more than the extravagant amount the Bears paid for him.  Then what?  A few dominant years from Tommie Harris in the middle, a revolving door at the safety position, big third down tackles by Alex Brown…etc.?

Yesterday, at Soldier Field, we saw the corner back performance of this /bears era era by the quintessential Lovie Smith defender.  Charles “Peanut” Tillman spent the majority of the afternoon locked up with the most impressive receiver in the sport, the man they call Megatron, and dominated him.  He did so not only within the structure of the traditional Lovie Deuce but also in one-on-one scenarios, spawned from the Lions going to three and four-wide sets.

Think about the role of the corner in this defense.  Usually in soft coverage, the corner must be able to make tackles and prevent the four-yard slant from becoming the twenty-yard backbreaker.  We know Lovie preaches turnovers thus the corner must know how to dislodge the football.  I would argue Peanut is among the finest tackling corners in the game and nobody, I mean nobody, is better at punching the ball out than Peanut.

Today I choose not to evaluate the ins and outs of the Bears victory over the Detroit Lions.  Today I choose to celebrate the man who has never received enough celebration.  Peanut, a corner nowhere near the top of any analyst’s list, beat the best in the business.  He stopped a man considered unstoppable.  For at least the next six days we are going to celebrate the time Charles Tillman has given to the organization we all love so dearly and celebrate the performance he delivered yesterday against Calvin Johnson.

Today is about Charles “Peanut” Tillman.  The Nut. The man who once ripped a game-winning TD pass from the hands of Randy Moss.  Today is about #33.  Outside of a fella named Revis in New Jersey, I don’t think there’s a corner I’d rather having wearing the navy and orange.

And for those of you interested in watching the scoreboards (specifically during the early games), Bears fans should be looking for the following:

New Orleans over Atlanta

The goal here is for the Saints to win the NFC North, leaving Atlanta and Tampa in the wildcard race.

Buffalo over Dallas

Dallas has a somewhat convenient schedule down the stretch and pushing them further back now might prove to be the factor elevating the Bears into the postseason.

Houston over Tampa Bay

I’m not really worried about Tampa but if you want to argue Tampa is still a threat, that argument is somewhat valid.

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Lines This Week (Home Team in CAPS):

Steelers 3 BENGALS

CHIEFS 3 Broncos

Jaguars 3 COLTS

COWBOYS 5.5 BIlls

Texans 3 BUCS

PANTHERS 3 Titans

DOLPHINS 3.5 Redskins

Saints 1 FALCONS

BROWNS 2.5 Rams

EAGLES 14 Cardinals

Ravens 6.5 SEAHAWKS

49ERS 3.5 Giants

BEARS 1.5 Lions

JETS 2 Patriots

PACKERS 13.5 Vikings

The Brothers: Jon (18-8-1), Jeff  (16-10-1), Chris (16-10-1)

The Commenter Perfect Weeks:, New Bear in Town (3), FQD1911 (2), SC Dave (2), BigDaddy (2), BossBear90 (2), Ufficio (2), tobijohn (2), Michael L (1), greenbayman (1), Sacramento’s #1 Bears Fan (1), ben in norcal (1), CanadaBear (1), #76 Mongo Murph (1), Shady (1), TheFifth (1), DYLbears23 (1), EnderWiggin (1), IrishSweetness (1)

NOTE ON PICKS CONTEST: The regular season for the Picks Contest will end on Monday night, December 5th.  You must have at least two (2) perfect weeks to advance to the postseason.  The postseason will be a lot of fun.

Are the Bears going to catch the Green Bay Packers for the NFC North division title?  No. Not chasing three games with eight to go and not with the Packers having already won at Soldier Field.   But the Chicago Bears can solidify the pole position among NFC wildcard contenders with a home victory against the Detroit Lions.  I think they do it.

WHY DO I LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS THIS WEEK?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.
• There has been a revisionist historical approach to what happened at Ford Field a few Monday nights back. The Bears played one of the sloppiest, dopiest, lights-too-bright-in-their-eyes games you could ever see and they LED AT HALFTIME!  Just by not having Frank Omiyale and Chris Harris on the field for the rematch, the Bears have improved by leaps and bounds.
• Since Jahvid Best’s brilliant performance against the Bears on Monday night, the Lions have sported a leading rusher with 37, 50 and 58 yards.  Their run game is in the tank and they seem to think Kevin Smith may be the answer.  Without the injured Best and a solid run game, they’ll be forced to throw it almost every down against the Bears defense and I don’t see them winning that way.
• The Bears won’t make the same mistake twice.  Calvin Johnson will not beat them deep.  He will get his 100 and a touchdown because he gets it every week but he will not beat them deep.
• I actually don’t believe there is a defense in the league that can stop the Bears rush attack.  And I think that means there is not a team in the league that can dominate them.  Teams have had success running right at the heart of the Lions defensive line.  (The Lions rush defense is bottom five.) The Bears will too.
• I think Jay Cutler is ready for one of those big money statistical games and I think the Lions secondary is ripe for the picking.  At home, in front of a riotous Soldier Field crowd, Cutler shines.
• Nobody likes the Lions.  I have never seen a team so seamlessly transition from national media darling to villain in just a few weeks.  The last three teams they’ve played left the field complaining about their extra curricular bullshit.  (The Bears let similar information out there, off the record.)  The Bears will be angry…
• …and confident.  The Bears defense plays their best when they are expected to fail but they play their second best when they don’t believe anyone can move the ball on them.  I have a feeling you’re going to see 90, 54, 55 and the boys flying around with a ton of intensity Sunday.
• There’s a dramatic arc to these Bears, as this playwright sees it.  Think about any great sports movie, or kung fu movie, or whatever.  The Bears lose on Monday night in Detroit.  They are humiliated.  They wake up Tuesday morning and are dead set on revenge.  They trounce a horrible Vikings team at home.  Confidence builds.  They journey to London and beat a decent Bucs team.  Confidence builds.  They go to Philadelphia, square off with one of the most talented teams in the league, and win.  Confidence builds.  Now the grand villain.  The one who embarrassed them on the national stage.  The one who set them on this path comes to Soldier Field.  I don’t think they let it get close.

Chicago Bears 27, Detroit Lions 10

From the moment he was hired on January 14, 2004 Lovie Smith was never a fan favorite in the Windy City. Bears fans want George Halas patrolling the sideline, wearing a pair of black frame glasses like he’s doing them a favor. They want Mike Ditka in the sweater vest, chewing out the Punky QB for all the world to see. Was the fan reluctance to embrace Smith racially motivated?  I don’t think so.  Was it geographically motivated? Absolutely. The “aw shucks” demeanor from Big Sandy, Texas simply didn’t connect with the Cheezborger! Cheezborger! intensity of Old Style country.

Lovie Smith has also made mistakes.  Tangible, see-em-with-your-eyes errors on the football field and in his pre-game meetings.  He hired Terry Shea.  He fired Ron Rivera. He was loyal to a fault with Bob Babich and Ron Turner and refused to acknowledge what the rest of could clearly see: Rex Grossman was not going to win the Bears a Super Bowl.  If we hang Jonathan Quinn on Shea’s coat rack, we hang Todd Collins on Lovie’s.  He is horrendous with timeouts and somewhat worse when throwing the red rag.  These are the kinds of mistakes fans notice when watching the game on television and the kinds of mistakes that infuriate them.

But the Lovie of late is not the Lovie of old.

ACCOUNTABILITY

For the first time in his tenure, there is real accountability being instituted at Halas Hall.  Chris Harris was benched after a porous performance against the Lions and responded with a string of Twitter complaints.  When put back on the field due to a Major Wright injury, Harris struggled against the Bucs and was subsequently cast onto the waiver wire.  When Frank Omiyale embarrassed himself on national TV, he was benched.  When Henry Melton failed to live up to the promise of a spectacular opening week, he was chastised publicly by his head coach and responded.

OFFENSIVE CONTROL

Does anyone doubt that Lovie Smith has usurped control of the offensive strategy?  The Bears are finally the running off the bus club Lovie’s been touting ad nauseam to Biggs and the boys at his midweek pressers for half a decade.  (I also think the movement of Mike Martz upstairs was a territorial gesture by Lovie.  It was an assertion of dominance over terrain like polar bears do it.)

STRATEGY FLEXIBILITY

The Bears decision to go to man coverage so often against the Philadelphia Eagles opened my eyes.  My primary criticism of Smith over the years has been his continually blind operation of a defensive system whilst lacking the players capable of operating that system at the highest levels.  Against the Eagles, Smith deviated from the standard structure of the Lovie Deuce and allowed his corners to beat up Andy Reid’s brittle speedsters.

ANGER

He didn’t snarl.  He didn’t throw anything. He didn’t call David Haugh a jerk (though who could blame him). But he said this in the aftermath of the Bears victory over Philly:

“We’re a good football team, just not getting a whole lot of respect,” Smith said. “When you go on a road, the Chicago Bears shouldn’t be eight-point underdogs when we come and play a team, and the guys took notice of that.”

A coaching mentioned the point spread in the press conference?  Lovie Smith being that coach?  This is a new guy we’re dealing with.

BUT HEY, JEFF, WHAT ABOUT THE GENERAL MANAGER?

When you come to a head coaching position with an exclusively defensive background, you depend upon your GM to find you talent on the other side of the ball.  It almost makes Lovie’s resume with the Bears more impressive when you look at the players he’s achieved his success with.  Lovie has won two of his three division titles with Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman.  He has never had a true number one receiver on his roster.  His GM traded away his best offensive weapon and the huddle’s true leader after the Super Bowl appearance.  In the modern NFL it is near impossible to win a Super Bowl title without a productive offense and, more specifically, a productive passing game to exploit the rule changes.  The Bears are only now finally moving in that direction.

If the Bears decide to fire Jerry Angelo (and they won’t), I believe the current defensive coaching staff would be able to continue their drafting and developing young players across the unit.  I don’t believe the firing of Jerry Angelo (that won’t happen) should also mean the releasing of Lovie Smith from his contract.

MY FINAL THOUGHT 

And it is perhaps the biggest point.  Michael Vick is going to be the quarterback of the Philadelphia Eagles for many years.  Aaron Rodgers is going to be the quarterback of the Green Bay Packers for many years.  And there is not a single defensive coach/system in the whole of the NFL that has more success against these two individuals. Lovie owns Vick and controls Rodgers, which these days feels like a Herculean achievement.  If the Bears are to remain a football team dedicated to a defensive style of football, they have the right man leading them in the current landscape of the NFC.

Even when Jerry Angelo drafts a good player in the first round, the Bears find a way to reduce his role.  This time, however, it’s a positive.  Gabe Carimi should be ready to return from his chronic knee injury for this Sunday’s pivotal contest with the Detroit Lions but is there a role for him in the starting lineup?  I don’t think so.

The Bears have their offensive line.  They have found the five men up front who give them the best chance to win games.  J’Marcus Webb may be getting max-protect, slide protection help but he is also clearly developing at one of the most difficult positions in the sport.  Chris Williams is in my top five voting for Bears MVP this season.  Roberto Garza’s transition to center and leader of this unit has left most Bears fans saying, “Olin who?”  Chris Spencer may have been signed as a center but he is a tough, bruising type player at guard.  Lance Louis is simply excellent at right tackle.  Nothing else one can say about it.

Carimi is an excellent talent and his ability to play both left and right tackles should give the Bears their best depth along the line in years.  Carimi’s return should also allow the Bears to make Frank Omiyale inactive each Sunday (though why they wouldn’t just cut him is beyond me).  But Lovie Smith and Mike Tice can not disrupt the continuity and development of the five men who’ve lined up against Minnesota, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia.  If they do, they’ll risk disrupting their run to the postseason.

I am going rapid fire here.  I am too excited to do anything else.

• Was I nuts?  Is Earl Bennett this good?  He looked like a legitimate number one receiver last night and I apologize to any commenter I criticized for saying that.
• Jay Cutler won the football game.  You have your quarterback, Chicago.
• Julius Peppers is beyond male.
• Izzy Idonije knew when to step his game up.
• The Bears have the best linebackers in football and I’m tired of hearing people say otherwise.
• Forte, stop fumbling.  Otherwise you’re gold.
• Did anyone have a single complaint about the Bears offensive line last night?  Me neither.  Amazing, Mike Tice.  Amazing.
• I love D.J. Moore.
• And Tim Jennings’ tackling.
• Adam Podlesh should not be forgotten for pinning DeSean Jackson in that corner when he fumbled.  Huge punt.
• The 51 yard field goal by Robbie Gould?  Also huge.
• I think Lovie Smith is a winning football coach.  And if you gave him a better GM, he’d win championships.
• Roy Williams, go fuck yourself.  You have to catch that bomb.
• On a similar note I would stop the Devin Hester experience on offense sooner than later.
• Did I mention Julius Peppers is post-male?
• We thought the story would be the safeties.  It wasn’t.  They were great.
• Chris Williams, I’m watching.  You’re becoming one of the best guards in the game.
• When Gabe Carimi comes back, you tell me where he goes…

I’m sure there’s more but I’m slightly less than intoxicated and I’m going to sleep.  See ya’ll tomorrow.  Big win for our Bears.