On this week’s episode:

Same old shit with a new song dedicated to the Detroit Lions and featuring the voice of Matt Millen.

Lines This Week:

Packers -5.5 FALCONS / Chargers -4 BRONCOS / PATRIOTS -9 Jets / GIANTS -9.5 Seahawks / JAGS -2.5 Bengals / Saints -6 PANTHERS / TEXANS -6 Raiders / Eagles -3 BILLS / VIKINGS -2 Cardinals / 49ERS -3 Bucs / STEELERS -3 Titans / COLTS -1.5 Chiefs / LIONS -6 Bears

Pick three games against the spread and you can’t duplicate the selections of myself or my brothers.

CURRENTLY ON THE BOARD:

The Brothers:  Jon (8-3-1), Jeff (7-5), Chris (7-5)

The Commenter Perfect Weeks: FQD1911 (2), Big Daddy (1), DYLbears23 (1), New Bear in Town (1), BossBear90 (1), Michael L (1), greenbayman (1)

The Bears are walking into a difficult, difficult situation Monday night.  Mike Francesa has talked about it on WFAN and I think he’s right: the Lions and their fans will see this primetime affair, against the Chicago Bears, as their “coming out party”.  The Bears will be walking into a maelstrom of emotion as the Motor City plans to revs its engines and announce to the national football audience, “This is our time.”

I don’t think it is.

WHY DO I LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS THIS WEEK?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.
• I think the Lions have a reckoning coming.  They have not been outplayed in the first halves of their last two games.  They have been blown out.  They have been dominated.  And they’ve worked their way back into these games based upon two elements:  (1) Bad coaching and quarterback play from their opponents.  Les Frazier inexplicably put a 20-point lead on the shoulders of McNabb over Adrian Peterson and Tony Romo was disgraceful down the stretch in Dallas.
• (2) Calvin Johnson.  Have you seen the catches he made to beat Dallas?  Both of them were jump balls in the end zone.  On one he was blanketed by a corner.  On the other he was surrounded by three defensive backs.  If the ball is in the air and Johnson can see it, he’s going to catch it.  You can double team him with Revis and Deion and he’s putting up triple-digit yards and a pair of scores.
• The other advantage the Lions have Monday night is their front four’s ability to rush the passer.  This is concerning but the Bears have played their two finest offensive games, both as a line and as a unit, against 4-3 defenses with good pass rushers.  I think that continues.
•  Look for the Bears to keep the terrific Tyler Clutts on the field as a safety measure against Suh and hand the ball to Forte/Barber 30+ times.  If they get the run game to be productive, the back end of the Lions defense is sub-mediocre.  Plays can be made downfield.
• Devin Hester’s season had been building to the Carolina game.  He was steps from breaking one throughout the first quarter of the season.  Teams will begin paying attention to him again now and he’ll start wreaking havoc on opposing game plans.  Hester’s had some lethal evenings indoors.
• The Bears know that stopping Calvin Johnson from getting his is just not something anyone on their roster is capable of doing and will commit this week to stopping the run.  I think pressure on Urlacher, Briggs and Roach will lead to them doing it.
• When they do, the front four must pressure Stafford.  If he’s going to complete passes to Johnson and Pettigrew, the Bears can’t let those plays be thirty and forty yarders.  The reason Steve Smith was able to find all those spaces in the zone was twofold: no pressure and Cam Newton’s escapability.  Stafford ain’t going to make people forget Houdini with his escaping.  He’s a pocket guy.  Julius Peppers has to make that pocket a frightening place to be.  Stafford’s had trouble surviving these Bears games.  Let’s keep the trend going.
• I think the Lion that wins the game is a Nittany one.  Robbie Gould on a late field goal.

Chicago Bears 26, Detroit Lions 24

POMPEI NAILS THE DEFENSE’S SIGNATURE FLAW

In his weekly Tribune film study column, Dan Pompei does not an excellent job with the defense as he points out some deficiencies fans are willing to ignore (specifically at linebacker).  His note on the safeties is most worth reading:

Brandon Meriweather‘s big hits are starting to make receivers look twice when they come over the middle, but unless he starts wrapping up, he is going to give up a lot of unnecessary yards.

On DeAngelo Williams‘ 26-yard first-quarter run, Major Wright could have had him after 3 yards and Meriweather could have had him after 12. Both missed. Wright also took a bad angle on Steve Smith after a catch, giving up 9 extra yards.

With the linebackers struggling to stay in their gaps the safeties are under pressure to make tackles.  They are not getting the job done.  Chris Harris’ return can not come soon enough.

PISA TINOISAMOA WORKING OUT FOR BEARS WEDNESDAY

All of the newspapers are linking to the story but the first place I saw it?  Where else but the Twitter feed of Chris Harris:

@pisatinoisamoa@spiceadams Pisa Delivery…

The Bears do not have a viable fourth linebacker on the roster currently and I would think the coaching staff is disappointed with the efforts of their second and third linebackers as well.  If the Bears don’t stop the run week-in-and-week-out, with their soft zone secondary, they’ll never hold opponents to less than 450 yards.

 THE DEVIN HESTER HALL OF FAME DEBATE IS NO DEBATE

Is Devin Hester a Hall of Famer?  This seemed to be a debate throughout the sports media universe in the aftermath of Hester’s record-breaking return touchdown against the Panthers.  Troy Aikman, a great player and shit analyst, weighed in:

“I think special teams is every bit as important as the other facets of the game,” Aikman told “The Mully and Hanley Show” on WSCR-AM 670. “This guy has been a dominant player in that regard. He’s been the best there has ever been with the return game. And so I would say yes, he absolutely deserves consideration.”

The Hall of Fame, for any sport, is meant to be a collection of the greatest players.  Not the great players.  The greatest players.  And nobody in the history of professional football has ever returned kicks/punts better than Devin Hester.  Think about how many players can make that claim, that no one ever performed their athletic task as well as them.  In the NFL currently, only four individuals can work their way into the debate: Ray Lewis, Tony Gonzalez, Ed Reed, Hester.  (Brady and Manning have more complicated arguments.)

If Hester retired tomorrow morning (and God willing he will not) he would be inducted into the HOF class five years from now when he became eligible.

The Detroit Lions are 4-0.  Undefeated.  And for a few hours every Sunday they are helping one of America’s great cities forget about the cobwebbed factories, rampant unemployment, inflating crime rates and Matt Millen.  They have magic too, this Lions team.  Les Frazier inexplicably refused to hand the ball to Adrian Peterson with a twenty point lead and instead let Donovan McNabb stop drives (and the clock) with his arm.  Stafford.  Calvin Johnson.  Lions win.  Tony Romo wasn’t content with throwing two pick sixes to revive an offensive-challenged Lions team Sunday.  He had to loft up a Favrean masterpiece of an interception late in the fourth quarter and ice his shitty quarterbacking cake.  Lions win.

Now ESPN is bringing the circus to town for the first Monday Night Football game in Detroit since the Carter administration and they’ve invited the Chicago Bears to play heel.  It will not be an easy place for any opponent.  The fans will relish the national stage.  They will make communication impossible inside that building.  It will be a celebration for the people of the city and an expected coronation of sorts for a rising franchise.  The Lions want to be the talk of the football world Tuesday morning.

But the Bears could be.  If Bears fans were offered a 2-2 first quarter of the season in August, many of us would have signed on the dotted line.  It has been a bizarre first quarter, to say the least.  The defense has showed an inconsistent pass rush, poor gap discipline against the run and struggled to weather injuries at the safety position.  Nevertheless they’ve managed to force turnovers in big spots and scored a pair of touchdowns.  The offense has been a puzzle but it’s become very clear they are at their best when Matt Forte has the football in his hands.  With penalties, drops on third down and shaky pass protection rearing their heads at various moments it is more than safe to say the Bears have yet to play a cohesive game offensively.

Now we start the second quarter of the season.  The issues of those first four games now must be addressed and fixed over the next four.  If you’re going to be a playoff team, a team that contends for the Super Bowl, these are the games where that championship infrastructure is built.  The Bears are not going to acquire depth at safety.  They are not going to see one of their wide receivers turn into Willie Gault, though their recommitment to Johnny Knox is welcomed.  But Brandon Meriweather is going to become more acclimated to the scheme.  Chris Harris is going to get on the field.  Jay Cutler is going to develop something of a rapport with Roy Williams.  Dane Sanzenbacher is going to continue his journey to Ricky Proehlness.  They will improve, if just by the benefit of time.

It all starts Monday night.  I won’t make any bold general statements, applying fictional meaning to the outcome. But personally I will be ready to take this Bears team quite seriously if they go into Detroit Monday, deliver an inspired effort and win.  I won’t be checking hotel rates in Indianapolis or anything but I’ll believe they are capable of stringing together enough wins to play one of them elimination affairs in January.  If the Bears want to play in the postseason, they’ll need to beat teams like the Detroit Lions.  Why not start with beating the Lions themselves?

Lovie Smith ought to be ashamed of himself.

Steve Smith is arguably the best receiver in football pound-for-pound.  He is a ferocious competitor and impossible for any corner to handle man-to-man.  Lovie Smith does not have to imagine what it’s like to battle against Smith because Smith singlehandedly eliminated the Chicago Bears from the 2005 postseason; embarrassing Lovie’s defense on the national stage.  So of course the defensive coaching staff would deviate from the normal defensive structure to prevent history from repeating itself, right?

In the lead-up to all of these games, opposing players get on conference calls with the Chicago media and are inevitably asked about facing the Bears defense.  It seems every week we’re serenaded with similar refrains: they’re not going to surprise you, they do what they do…etc.  Sure sometimes LoveRod send linebackers or defensive backs after the quarterback but most of the time they simply do what they do.

What they do is run a defensive scheme that allows for Tim Jennings, the team’s second best corner by a long run, to be lined up opposite Steve Smith.  Not because of any personnel strategy but because that’s the side of the field Smith lined up on.  And then, because such is the structure of the system, Jennings is allowed to let Smith run by him and become the problem of the safety.  Watching Darrelle Revis last night for the Jets was an interesting exercise for a Bears fan.  Revis marked a receiver and then followed him all over the field.  If he cut, Revis cut.  If he took off down the sideline, Revis was sitting in his pant pocket.  Tim Jennings is not in Revis’ stratosphere when it comes to cover skills but it would not matter if he were.  Lovie Smith’s defensive backs cover area, not people.  The passing attacks with deep rosters can exploit the spaces in the zone.  The elite wide receivers can exploit the whole system.

If Steve Smith is Roy Jones Jr., Calvin Johnson is Mike Tyson.  And if the Bears do not treat Johnson like the superstar he is, they’ll be staring down the barrel of a 200 yard, multi-touchdown performance.  For this coming week, as the Bears prepare for a Monday Night Football battle with the comeback kids up in Detroit, the talk around Chicago will not be on the offense.  Matt Forte’s bank account performance Sunday will calm those voices for another week.  We’ve seen Lovie Smith seize control of the offensive game plan and turn the Chicago Bears (at least for a week) into an off-the-bus running club.  Now we’ll see if he can adjust his baby, his pride and joy, his defense.  We’ll see if he can stop Stafford, Johnson, Pettigrew.

It will take pressure, of course.  Allowing Stafford to sit in the pocket will spell doom for the Bears.  But it will also take an aggressive approach with Johnson.  If he’s allowed to navigate freely across the field, the Bears will lose.

I used the same photo as the game thread because, basically, it felt appropriate.

• Here’s an idea.  Put your best corner on the other team’s best receiver.  If you want to pretend Steve Smith is an average wide receiver, that’s fine.  But he’s not an average wide receiver.  He’s pound-for-pound the best WR in the league and he demands the attention of your best defensive back.  Charles Tillman can sure create a fumble but I’m not impressed by covering LaFell.
• Enough with Johnny Knox returning every other kickoff.
• How about Johnny Knox starts again?  Cuz I have no interest in Roy Williams.
• We might need to address the concept that we can’t stop the run.  I’m not ready yet.
• Devin Hester is the best kick returner in the history of football and it isn’t close.
• Frank Omiyale should not start at right tackle next week.  And I literally don’t care who does.  If they need me, I will.
• Cutler and the coaching staff have an obvious disdain for one another that he likes to advertise on his face.  And you know what?  I’m fully on Cutler’s side.
• Burn more timeouts in dumb situations, Lovie.
• Get plays in the quarterback slower, Martz.
• How about we put the quarterback on his back, defensive line?  I love pressure but I need you guys to plant people into the ground.
• Adam Podlesh is growing on me.
• Sanzenbacher has to catch the ball on third down.  Otherwise what use is he?
• Matt Forte.  Words are not enough.  Brilliant.
• I like that we went from trading a terrific pass catching tight end to having no tight end ever on any play.
• I can’t believe that a head coach who suffered through that 2005 playoff loss to Carolina would not concern himself with Steve Smith.  I really can’t.  Next week we face Calvin Johnson.  He’s brilliant.  Maybe, just maybe, cover him?

There are some, mostly wearing the navy and orange, claiming today’s contest with the Carolina Panthers is not a must win.  Maybe they’re being political.  Maybe they’re trying to relinquish the pressure placed on their backs after two embarrassing performances, specifically on the offensive end.  There is only one thing I know for sure: they are lying.

If the Bears lose to the Panthers today it will reverberate throughout the organization for many weeks to come.  If they beat the Panthers, as I expect them to, it will stabilize the organization (even if only for a moment) and send them into Detroit next Monday night knowing they can seize the 2011 season with an inspired performance on the road in primetime.

Today is absolutely a must win.

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YOUR LINES FOR THE WEEK:

RAVENS -3.5 Jets / Pats -4 RAIDERS / PACKERS -13 Broncos / CHARGERS -7.5 Dolphins / Giants -1 CARDINALS / Falcons -4.5 SEAHAWKS / TEXANS -4.5 Steelers / BEARS -6.5 Panthers / Vikings -1 CHIEFS / Bills -3 BENGALS / BROWNS -1 Titans / Redskins -1 RAMS / Saints -7 JAGUARS / COWBOYS -2.5 Lions / BUCS -10 Colts / EAGLES -9 49ers

Pick three games against the spread and you can’t duplicate the selections of myself or my brothers.

CURRENTLY ON THE BOARD:

The Brothers:  Jon (7-1-1), Jeff (5-4), Chris (4-5)

The Commenter Perfect Weeks: FQD1911 (2), Big Daddy (1), DYLbears23 (1), New Bear in Town (1), BossBear90 (1)

Jeff Pearlman is taking a beaten from Chicago Bears fans and from seemingly everyone associated even peripherally with the great 1985 team.  Well regarded fans believe the personal life of Sweetness is private business and does not belong in the public forum.  Mike Ditka said publicly he would spit on Pearlman if he encountered him.  The issue even worked its way into the current group’s press conferences, with both Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher – two players who started their own careers after #34’s death – defending the character of the namesake of the NFL’s Man of the Year award.

I understand Payton’s legacy in the Chicago Bears organization and the city of Chicago.  I understand that to an entire generation of individuals he is more than a football player.  He is someone to idolize.  He’s (dare I say it) a hero.

This brings me to Tribune columnist John Kass; a nice guy by most accounts.  Quite honestly I’d never heard of John Kass until Tuesday night when he appeared rather prominently in Alex Gibney’s Catching Hell documentary on ESPN.  In the documentary, Kass attempts to hand Steve Bartman his business card just moments after Bartman’s fateful “mistake”.  Bartman, a devoted Cubs fan, had his life ruined by the Chicago media in the days following Alex Gonzalez’ inability to field a routine double-play ball.  Not by Kass.  You see, Bartman did not take Kass’ business card that day.  Bartman’s never taken an opportunity to speak to the media, no matter the financial gain. This doesn’t mean Kass wasn’t ready to lead off and make someone attending a sporting event the story of the sporting event.

Why do I tell you this?  Because Kass wrote a piece in the Tribune claiming Walter Payton did not deserve the treatment given by Pearlman.  What did Bartman deserve, John?  What made you so willing in the moment to exploit the mistake of a regular guy who’d purchased a ticket and yet makes you so squeamish at the thought of a great player’s off-field legacy being tarnished?  Tarnished, I might add, by what is apparently the truth.

I never idolized Walter Payton off the field.  Walter Payton or any other athlete.  And if Jeff Pearlman’s book is well-researched and accurate, why doesn’t it deserve to be written?  Why doesn’t the information belong out there?  Who decides which subjects are worthy of reporting and not worthy of reporting?

And not to go all Jason Whitlock on everybody but why would this tarnish anything of Payton’s legacy?  Mickey Mantle is still the most celebrated ballplayer in the history of New York City and his nights of carousing while a fifth of scotch took the fast lane to his liver have been the subject of multiple tomes and major film for HBO.  People greet this information with a snicker and sneer and accompany stories of his on-field dominance with a nostalgic, “and we barely woke him up at his locker that morning.”

So maybe Walter struggled with his life after being the most famous athlete in the city of Chicago and one of the most famous in the country.  Maybe he struggled with both the physical tool of all those hits and the emotional toll of no more stadiums full of adoring fans.  Maybe he sought to fill those voids with prescription  medication and the adoring women lingering after speaking engagements.  Who.  Fucking.  Cares.  This does not tarnish a yard Payton gained on football fields across this country.

The response to Pearlman’s book in and around Chicago feels like a natural counterpart to Gibney’s Bartman documentary.  Sports are something we all love.  When we confuse them with actual life, we’ve lost touch with a basic reality.  Walter Payton was a great football player and a flawed man.  What could make him more real than that?

If you gave me some truth serum, I might admit that I like Ron Rivera more than Lovie Smith.  Nope, don’t even need the truth serum.  Ron Rivers played linebacker for the greatest football team there ever was and coordinated the defense which nearly carried the organization to a second title.  He and Thomas Jones were shown the door and the Bears went back into the tank.  I know it was not a coincidence.  He’ll have something to prove Sunday at Soldier Field.  I just don’t think he has the horses in 2011.

WHY DO I LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS THIS WEEK?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.
• Defensively the Carolina Panthers just don’t possess much to actually frighten this Bears offense.  (The Bears offense does a good enough job frightening itself.)  They have only five sacks on the season and the Bears should be able to keep Charles Johnson, the most insanely paid player in the NFL, off Cutler’s back.  With the injuries Carolina has suffered at linebacker any blitzes will cost them big yardage on short throws from Cutler to Forte, Hester…etc.
• The Bears will sell out to stop the run because they know Ron Rivera and Chud are not crazy enough to have Cam Newton put the ball in the air 40 times against a defense that lives off the turnover.  The Bears also know the Panthers will see the tape of Starks and Grant running cutbacks free through their second level and will expect the same approach from Williams and Stewart.
• If Newton is going to beat the Bears in the air, he’s going to need to connect on the slant routes and under zone stuff he’s yet to successfully do as a pro.  The QBs that have success against this defense display two distinct qualities: patience and accuracy.  You have to wait for that tight end to slide away from the defender in the middle of the field.  You have to wait for the receiver to duck into the space between corner and safety.  You have to throw the ball into tight spots.  Is Cam that kind of player?  I don’t think so.  Certainly not yet.
• Pro Panthers, Volume I.  I am not one to read too significantly into the first three weeks but as I wrote yesterday the Bears are getting thrashed by pass-catching tight ends.  The Panthers have a good one named Greg Olsen.
• Pro Panthers, Volume II.  I still have nightmares of Steve Smith in the 2005 postseason.  When he’s possessed, he can’t be stopped.
• The Bears can’t ignore the rushing game for a third consecutive week, can they?  I think they’ll find themselves with an early lead in this game and run the ball between 25-30 times at least for better than 150 yards.
• The Panthers are registering touchbacks on half their kickoffs.  Robbie Gould is 11-14 on touchbacks.  That’s a rather significant statistic when you consider the weapons Chicago has in the return game, including Dave Toub making the calls.  Opponents won’t be able to keep the return units off the scoreboard all season.
• There are a few intangibles I think exist here.  (1) I think the Bears play their best football when they’ve been written off.  (2) They are even more dominant when they’ve been written off and face an inferior team.  (3) Anger.  I think there’s a lot of anger in that locker room right now, especially on the defensive end.  In 2005, the defense learned quickly they needed to dominate the line of scrimmage and win games on their own.  I think they start with that approach Sunday.

Chicago Bears 23, Carolina Panthers 6