Everyone who supports the Chicago Bears wants them to win tonight. Everyone wants the defense to shut down Tom Brady and for the offense to put together four consistent, productive quarters. But the most likely scenario is there will be some great and a bit of bad on defense, a tad bit of good but mostly bad on offense, and the Bears will lose because Brady plays for the other team.

And you know what? That’s okay.

I know preaching patience is not going to win DBB any awards in the clicks department. Patience and nuance are anathema to the whole of the sports media landscape. Anybody familiar with Mike Greenberg’s new radio show on ESPN can tell you that. Every single day he proclaims a new team “the best” in football. (After Week 2, I believe that was the Arizona Cardinals.) Every single day a new player “is the frontrunner for MVP”. (Kyler Murray, of course.) The trick to being successful in this climate is to make absurdly bold yet utterly forgettable proclamations as often as you possibly can. Five Things Ryan Pace Needs to Improve Upon columns are met with resounding indifference. Five Reasons the Bears Must Not Only Fire But Perhaps Murder Ryan Pace in His Sleep columns? Click click click click click click click.

Nick Foles had his first full practice with Bears starters a week ago. A week ago. He will have had about four serious practices with this offense as they head into tonight’s game, against the greatest quarterback in the history of the sport. If you expected Foles to take over the job midway through the third week and arrive in midseason form, I’d only ask one question: why? Why would you believe that?

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How much does a pirate pay for corn?

Buck an ear.

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And I think the offense will get better in the weeks to come. Do I think they’ll be at full stride tomorrow? No. But I think signs of progress will be evident, as they work towards getting the new quarterback up to speed.

On Brady’s Bucs…

As always, you can go look at the statistical rankings and draw your own conclusions on Tampa’s strengths and weaknesses. I watch the Short Cuts of all their games on Sunday Ticket and try to give you in-game insights.

• Tom Brady’s approach isn’t particularly different than it was in New England. Every once in a while he’ll take a deep shot (Scotty Miller is his guy down there) but his bread is still buttered by the quick toss, intermediate stuff to tight ends and small white receivers and a diverse collection of screens. When Brady’s in rhythm, he’s unstoppable. When he’s pressured out of that rhythm, he’s been giving the defense opportunities to make plays on the football.
  • It could be a product of age, but Brady’s arm strength seems to come and go over the course of a game. He had no zip on the football early against LA. He was flinging it in the third quarter.
  • Mike Evans has become a possession receiver. And a good one.
  • The injury report will have a massive say in what this offense looks like tomorrow night. Most of the skill guys in Tampa are on their report.
• Ronald Jones power runs are the tone-setters for this offense but Jones has been a real asset in the passing game lately. Will be an interesting test for Roquan Smith, coming off arguably his best game as a Bear.
• Defense can be attacked vertically, especially on early downs. If the Bears think they can take the same approach they took Sunday and try to bully the Bucs on first downs with the run game, they’ll find themselves behind the chains all day long. (The Chargers had zero success with early-down runs.) When the Bears find themselves chasing down and distance, they need to expect Todd Bowles to bring pressure and attack that pressure with the screen game.
• An element of the Bucs passing game that the Bears must be ready for is the tight end verticals. O.J. Howards is out for the season but don’t be surprised if that injury doesn’t increase Rob Gronkowski’s role in the game plan.

In Honor of the Buccaneers, My Five Favorite Big Screen Pirates

(5) Steve the Pirate, Dodgeball

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(4) Captain Hook, Hook

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(3) Pirate King, Pirates of Penzance 

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(2) Smee, Disney’s Peter Pan

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(1) Dread Pirate Roberts, The Princess Bride

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Matt Nagy, an offensive head coach, has had far too many postgame press conferences like Sunday, wherein he proclaimed the offense “wasn’t good enough”. No, his offense wasn’t good enough Sunday. They weren’t good enough in year one. They weren’t good enough in year two. And through four games of year three, they’re still not good enough.

The sign of a good head coach is one who has success on the side of the ball from which he came.

• Bill Belichick always has top 10 defenses.
• Andy Reid has only ranked outside the top 20 in scoring twice — his first and last years in Philadelphia.
• Kyle Shanahan has had a bunch of injuries this year, but his team in 11th in yardage and 13th in points. (Shanahan’s 49ers have never ranked outside the top half of the league in yardage or in the bottom 10 in scoring.)

But after Sunday’s woeful performance, the Bears are 25th in scoring and 24th in yardage. They’re 31st in third down conversions, 25th in the red zone.

The passing game is averaging an anemic 6.4 yards per attempt while still being intercepted 3.2 percent of the time. They’re sixth in passing attempts — partially due to the fact that they fall behind every week — yet 21st in yardage. It isn’t a stretch to say they have the worst passing offense in the league.

And, hey, it’s not just that they can’t pass the ball, they’re 20th in rushing and are the only team in the league without a rushing touchdown this year.

This comes after they changed out the offensive coordinator, offensive line coach, quarterback coach and, of course, the quarterback himself.

Nagy is running out of people to blame.

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Here come the rapid fire reactions to a snooze of a ballgame. And a ballgame the Bears deserved to lose.

• The Colts were quite simply the better team. They played harder, hit harder, committed fewer penalties and won at the point of attack consistently.
• Rivers was bad in this game, as expected. But bad was good enough.
• Nick Foles played a terrible game, generally. But it was to be expected. The Bears have to figure out a way to get their QB up-to-speed before Thursday or they’ll be heading into a ten-day layoff at 3-2.
• Who do the players perform their celebrations for when the stadiums are empty? Do you think they feel as ridiculous as they look?
• Rich Gannon, who NEVER STOPS TALKING, referred to Khalil Mack as an “all day sucker”. That might be the most disgusting description of a player I’ve heard.
• Has there been a great return man who is also great at covering kicks? Cordarrelle Patterson is every bit that.
• Three pivotal moments in the first quarter:
  • Kyle Fuller called for a pass interference on the touchdown drive. Just didn’t feel like that call needed to be made. But here’s the bigger issue: do you know what PI is? Do the players know what PI is? It’s become a vague, undefined penalty.
  • Khalil Mack’s dropped interception. That’s leaving points on the board.
  • Bears allowing Alie-Cox to beat them for the touchdown. How is not the focal point for Chuck Pagano on that play? Rivers has been looking to him constantly for weeks in those exact situations.
• Guard play was terrible for the Bears early in the game. Daniels and Ifedi missed pivotal blocks that killed drives.
• Re-capping the first half:
  • About as undisciplined a half as the Bears can play. Penalties and mistakes everywhere. Strange coaching decisions.
  • Defense has to get off the field on third-and-long, especially when they’re getting pressure. The middle of the field is just wide open weekly. Why?
  • Bend-don’t-break is what this defensive identity is becoming. They’re not dominant. They’re solid, across the board. With this offense, currently, that’s not gonna be good enough.

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Our sponsor this week is the legendary Merz Apothecary and they’re doing a fantastic giveaway!

Because there isn’t any theatre for JQ to do, he’s been forced to actually watch all these Bears games live and his heart is struggling to take it. So the winner of this week’s contest will receive a package of goods designed for heart health and stress relief. We can’t have the Chicago Bears killing anyone!

You’ll get Himalaya HeartCare Capsules, Carlson Fish Oil Capsules and Urban Moonshine Joy Tonic. It’s a package worth $75. This is high-end stuff.

The Contest

In the comments section below, guess the total number of yards receiving for Bears WRs Sunday. No backs. No tight ends. Just Robinson, Miller, Mooney, Ginn, Wims…etc. First correct answer wins the package so don’t duplicate someone else’s guess. (If nobody guesses the number exactly, we’ll roll the prize over to Thursday’s Bucs preview.)

Good luck!

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And while I think there will be some growing pains for Nick Foles with these receivers, my confidence level in this team is significantly higher with him under center.

Thoughts on the Colts

• I have watched all three Colts games and I don’t really know what to make of them defensively. (I guess the same could be said about the Bears.) Kirk Cousins played one of the worst games I’ve ever seen a quarterback play two weeks ago. Then Sam Darnold topped him last week. If you think the Colts defense caused those performances you really need to look at the tape. Both guys missed wide open receivers all over the field. Both guys just seemed to casually throw interceptions. This is definitely the best defense the Bears have faced to this point but their number one ranking is inflated by these grotesque QB performances.
• When you watch them defensively, it’s their aggressiveness that jumps off the screen. They are a group that likes to hit people. It’s the reason Matt Eberflus was being considered for some head coaching gigs last off-season and why he’ll be a top contender once Eric Bieniemy is announced as the new coach of the Falcons.
• Mo Alie-Cox looks to be finally developing into a nice weapon for Phil Rivers at the tight end spot. He’s only got ten catches on this young season but you can see the confidence level growing each week. Bears need to be wary.
• Stopping the run is key every week but it’s absolutely essential Sunday. If the Bears have shown a vulnerability in the passing game it’s the deep middle, underneath the safeties. Those throws require arm strength and the first three QBs they have faced have had it in spades. Rivers does not. He can not pick them apart if he’s trying to fit the ball into tight windows, 10-12 yards down the field.
• Kicker Rodrigo Blankenship was one of my favorite players in the 2020 NFL Draft and he’s been fine kicking for the Colts. But…he’s doinked three kicks through three weeks. Imagine if the Bears had drafted him and he did this? It would have broken half the fan base.

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Bears are 3-0. They won’t win more than 8 games. And are stuck in draft pick purgatory from trades they’ve made. Rough spot to be in

— Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) September 28, 2020

Jason La Canfora does this a lot.

And he’s not alone.

There are a good number of (mostly national) football writers who go out of their way to take shots at Ryan Pace’s Chicago Bears whenever they see the opportunity. The reason is not Ryan Pace. The reason is Chris Ballard, the current General Manager of the Indianapolis Colts.

Very few personnel men in the league were as, let’s just say, open with the media as Ballard. His press friends were many. Folks like Matt Miller and La Canfora trusted his scouting word as gospel and they promoted him for just about every GM opening that came around.

When the Bears interviewed Ballard for the gig that eventually went to Pace, the former was unsurprisingly vocal. He told people around the league the job was his to lose. He even said that to one of the other contenders for the gig! Ballard considered the interview process a foregone conclusion, believing that George and Ted would go with a known, comfortable commodity in the wake of the failed Phil Emery experiment.

He didn’t get the job. Not because he wasn’t a qualified candidate, mind you. The Bears quite liked Chris Ballard before and during the process. Ballard didn’t get hired because Pace blew the doors off the joint. He was smart, detailed and charismatic. And the endorsement given by Sean Payton was one of the more enthusiastic they’d experienced. The Bears didn’t just believe in Pace. They believed in his vision for what the Bears could and should be.

Ballard did not take this rejection well.

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Phil Rivers was paid a fortune to take over a franchise that saw their 2019 derailed by an early retirement and injuries at the sport’s most important position.

Tom Brady was paid a fortune to take over a franchise that saw their 2019 derailed by a quarterback who stubbornly refused to stop throwing the ball to the other team.

Neither is the player they once were. They both do everything in their power to avoid contact. They both lack the zip required to fit the football into tight, intermediate windows. They both lack precision on the deep ball, not uncommon for quarterbacks in the twilights of their careers.

But how the Chicago defense performs against these two wily veterans will greatly determine what kind of season this team is going to have. To this point, the defense has been far more bend-don’t-break than recent vintages. They have forced the three opposing QBs – Stafford, Jones and Ryan – to execute long drives to threaten to the end zone. (With the glaring exception being the Atlanta opening drive Sunday.) Being that the unit is ranked 9th in points allowed, it’s hard to argue that strategy hasn’t worked, to a point.

These next two games, that must change. The run defense must be better because both of these quarterbacks are at their best when they get ahead of the chains. The pass rush must dominate because neither of these quarterbacks can operate with players around them. The coverage must be tight because neither of these quarterbacks can make the kinds of throws Stafford make in Week One. If you allow Phil and Tom to dink and dunk you to death, it’s EXACTLY what they’ll do.

The Bears needed to come out of their first three games at 2-1, minimum. They exceeded that, in somewhat miraculous fashion, managing to also close the book on The Trubisky Affair. Now they need a split of these next two. 4-1 (or long shot 5-0) means they’ll have ten days before a a game in Carolina they’ll be expected to win. That is exactly the kind of start that means you’re playing meaningful games in late December, and hopefully beyond.

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The Chicago Bear recipe for a successful 2020 season always included one absolute necessity: great defense. Three games into the season, they’ve been far from great.

The rankings? They don’t look that bad.

• 9th in points allowed.
• 12th in takeaways.
• 15th in yardage.
• Allowed the fewest passing touchdowns: 2. (two)
• 2nd in opponent passer rating (71.4), despite playing three solid quarterbacks.

The biggest problem is the run defense, as the Bears have allowed a shocking five yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns. And numbers alone don’t tell the story.

The statistics don’t tell you about how in each of the Bears first three games, the other team was missing its best offensive player. They don’t tell you about the dropped touchdown in Detroit or the fourth down failures that allowed the Giants to get within 10 yards of a win. The numbers don’t tell you that Atlanta was without two of its top three wide receivers for the second half and went uber-conservative.

(In fairness, they also don’t tell you about the bad calls that took a pick-six away, or two very iffy roughing the passer penalties — one of which took away a strip sack. But you can bet every team has similar arguments.)

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(Jose M. Osorio/ Chicago Tribune via AP, Pool)

The Bomb Finally Went Off.

As the first quarter came to a close, the Bears took possession, trailing 6-3.

On first down, Mitch Trubisky threw a bomb down the right sideline to a single-covered Ted Ginn.

The throw went out of bounds.

On third down, Trubisky threw a bomb down the left sideline to a single-covered Tarik Cohen.

The throw went way out of bounds.

Later, at the end of the second quarter, he threw a deep ball to Darnell Mooney. You can guess where it went. Moments later he finally landed one in bounds, airmailing a wide open Anthony Miller.

Briefly stated, Mitch Trubisky was in Atlanta who we thought he was. But Matt Nagy didn’t let him off the hook.

Trubisky’s tenure as the quarterback of the Chicago Bears has not definitively come to an end. He’s the backup now for a 3-0 football team and in this league, he should know he’s one blindside sack from being back on the field. And it is a fitting role for #10 because his playing ability suggests the backup role is where he belongs.

Backups can hit the easy, open, short and intermediate stuff. Backups can find fluky runs of form. Backups tend to make their biggest plays when the play has already broken down.

But backups are not expected to complete bombs down the field in rhythm. They’re not expected to produce touchdowns consistently in the red zone. They’re expected to make a few plays weekly that leave fans saying, “Yep, that’s why he isn’t a starter.”

This is the lonely, roadside motel room in which Trubisky now resides.

Peaceful Transition of Power.

There was a moment in Sunday’s game where Nick Foles did a very Nick Foles thing.

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