257 Comments

Three-Pick Parlay To Keep the Sun in NFL Sunday

| November 12th, 2021


Falcons at Cowboys over 53.5 points (-110)

Week 9 was one of the strangest in league history but two things struck a note of predictability: the Falcons couldn’t hold a lead and the Cowboys couldn’t win a big game.

Atlanta is figuring out their offense without Calvin Ridley, and it involves a heap load of “tight end” Kyle Pitts. (Side note: what makes Pitts a tight end? Because it sure isn’t the position he plays when on a football field.) This season’s offensive revelation has been Cordarrelle Patterson and the Cowboys don’t have an answer for him in the passing game.

Dallas is desperate. And home. These weapons aren’t being held down two weeks in a row. This feels like a game where both teams could get into the thirties.


Titans -2.5 over Saints (-110)

There seems to be a general belief that at some point the Titans have to lose. But Mike Vrabel’s team had the most impressive win of the season Sunday night in Los Angeles; without their best player; on the back of their defense; against perhaps the league’s best team (before Sunday). Tennessee’s schedule down the stretch is a pathway to the number one seed. Sure seems like that is the direction in which they’re headed.

And while Sean Payton is one of the best coaches in the league, he’s now playing with third stringers at QB. (He opened the season with a backup playing the position.) Eventually, that car runs off the road. They lost last week and three of their next four are against the Titans, Bills and Cowboys.


Colts -10 over Jaguars (-115)

Colts point totals since October 3rd: 27, 25, 31, 30, 34, 45.

Average: 32.

Jaguars point totals since October 10th: 19, 23, 7, 9.

Average: 14.5.

Colts 32, Jaguars 15.


This three-game parlay goes off at +581 so $100 bet will win you $681.38.

Tagged: , , , , ,

68 Comments

Reflections on Watching the Other Teams Play Football

| November 24th, 2020


(1) Colts came into the week as the league’s top-ranked defense. Chiefs came into the week as the favorite to win the Super Bowl. Both teams allowed 31 points. Both teams won. The above Tweet from Mike Francesa mirrors something Gil Brandt Tweeted not so long ago and something I’ve been harping on this season. The days of building a team around the defense are over. You have to build a team that can score seven points with a minute remaining. Explosive players. Speed. Oh and someone who can accurately throw the football to explosive players with speed.

Monday Night Football’s game between two top 5 defenses should have cemented this idea.


(2) Just marvel at what the Steelers have done. This was a team defined by running the ball and playing defense for fifty years. They still do the latter well, drafting consistently good players on that side of the ball. But they saw how the league was changing and completely shifted their offensive philosophy. And year-after-year they’ve added more weapons, and more speed on the outside. Smith-Schuster. Washington. Diontae. Ray-Ray. Claypool. They’ve adapted to the modern game. And they have the quarterback.


(3) Carson Wentz is broken. His mechanics have gotten shaky. His internal clock is way off. Sometimes he rushes throws because of phantom pressure. Sometimes he holds onto the ball for an eternity. Is it fixable? Probably. But one has to believe Doug Pederson is considering more than just a Jalen Hurts package. Can Hurts possibly be worse than this?


(4) Everyone needs to stop with their anti-NFC East nonsense. We have divisions. You win the division, you get into the tournament. That’s the sport. And for those who don’t know, the NFC East carried the league’s ratings water for about twenty years. This was the best division in the sport for a long, long time. They’re having a down year. But I’m going to seriously enjoy watching this play out. (And I think it may be decided on the field, Week 17, when the Giants and Cowboys meet.)


Read More …

Tagged: , , , , ,

70 Comments

A Look at the QB Situations of the Potentially-Available Head Coaching Gigs

| December 22nd, 2017

Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images (Edited)

The question I’ve been asked most since getting to Chicago: “Do you think Trubisky will be a positive when looking for a new coach?” My answer each time has been a definitive yes because I truly believe it will.

But I decided that, instead of leaning on my gut, to poll my two pals in the league on the question, factoring in all of the potentially-available gigs and their quarterback situation. I’ve grouped the teams into categories.

(I’ll be referring to my friends as AFC GUY & NFC GUY.)


Colts

They get their own category because think of the waters GM Chris Ballard has to navigate. When he’s looking to hire a coach in January he may not be able to tell the candidates whether Andrew Luck, their franchise quarterback, will require an additional surgery sidelining him six months or more. He won’t be able to tell the candidates if they have a franchise quarterback in 2018 or not.

NFC GUY: “Chris is going to have to sell that job. And every potential coach will want to know if they’re considering drafting a quarterback early.”


Bucs / Titans

These are two jobs that, should they come open, will come open with a quarterback in-place. But…do you want them?

  • Marcus Mariota has questions to answer regarding his play in 2017. Because he’s been awful. Said AFC GUY: “If he’s not hurt, he’s a problem.”

Read More …

Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

199 Comments

Bears Fall Short in Indy: Rapid Fire

| October 10th, 2016

Hard game to get emotional about. But there’s things to talk about so let’s talk about them.

  • Brian Hoyer played a terrific game for a backup quarterback. But when your team racks up 500+ yards and scores only 23 points, it’s time to start asking why. Hoyer doesn’t extend plays with his legs. He doesn’t throw the ball to the Bears best player (for some bizarre reason). And…he’s just limited. Jay Cutler wins Sunday’a game. And I happen to believe he wins it by a couple of touchdowns.
  • Hoyer dinks and dunks. His drives take 10-12 plays to get into the end zone. Those drives can be derailed entirely by one mistake or penalty. Penalties told the story of the game.
  • John Fox, through five games, is having a rough season. Challenges, timeouts, personnel decisions…etc. One has to wonder if he has any feel for this roster right now. Sadly, Fox can’t be properly evaluated until the actual team is on the field.
  • Why would you bench Bryce Callahan? Let the kid learn on the field. He was playing a solid game yesterday.
  • Terrific performance from Cameron Meredith. The fumble was bad, and cost the Bears the game, but his emergence was far more significant.

Read More …

Tagged: , , , , , ,