All times are ET. Home team in CAPS.

Saturday 4:30 PM – HOUSTON v. Cleveland (-2.5)

His name is Flacco.

No, not the Manhattan owl.

But still the man soars.

Saturday 8:00 PM – KANSAS CITY (-4.5) v. Miami

It will be frigid,

projected at six below.

Too bleak for Flipper.

Sunday 1:00 PM – BUFFALO (-10) v. Pittsburgh

It’s the Bar Bill wings,

versus Primanti Brothers.

Dip this win in blue.

Sunday 4:30 PM – DALLAS (-7.5) v. Green Bay

America’s team.

A nation’s eyes upon them.

Will they hold up? Yes.

Sunday 8:15 PM – DETROIT (-3) v. Los Angeles

Jared was a Ram.

And Matthew was a Lion.

The latter moves on.

Monday 8:00 PM – TAMPA BAY v. Philadelphia (-3)

The home team is bad,

and the road team might be worse.

Someone has to win.

The Picks: Cleveland -2.5, Kansas City -4.5, Pittsburgh +10, Dallas -7.5, Los Angeles +3.5, Philly -3 (but I won’t be betting the last one).

This week, most outlets will focus on lessons to be learned from the teams reaching the final four. But what about the four teams that failed to advance this past weekend? What questions face those franchises? I am asking them directly.

Buffalo Bills. Who are you?

Buffalo’s performance against the Cincinnati Bengals should create something of an existential crisis.

They were a significant favorite. They were home, in front of some of the best fans in the sport. They even got weather. And they didn’t show up. But what is most surprising is just how unsurprising that was. The Bills were terrible a week ago against the Miami Dolphins, and just about any quarterback but Skylar Thompson would have beaten them.

Who are they? What is their offense? What is their defense? This team, as the season progressed, became nothing more than “Josh, go make a play” and that’s not a successful organizational template. Nobody needs to be fired. The roster doesn’t require significant alterations. But an identity on both sides of the ball needs to be established if this team hopes to find themselves playing beyond divisional round weekend.

New York Giants. Do you understand how far away your roster actually is?

Brian Daboll has become the toast of the town in New York City. He is also 3-6-1 in his last ten games.

Daniel Jones, according to WFAN and CBS’ Boomer Esiason, is looking at a potential contract totaling $130-140 million. He also pitched to a quarterback rating of 53.8 against the Eagles on Saturday.

The Giants overachieved in 2022 but that overachievement should be understood in proper context. Their roster is not remotely close to competing for championships. Saturday night in Philadelphia should have illustrated that for Joe Schoen. Did it?

Read More …

Kansas City 27, Jacksonville 20

Four mistakes.

Four mistakes cost the Jaguars a remarkable trip to the AFC Championship Game.

• They dropped an easy Chad Henne interception that would have likely been returned for a touchdown.
• Christian Kirk dropped a beautiful Trevor Lawrence deep shot that Cris Collinsworth inexplicably described as “overthrown.” (Collinsworth’s praising of Patrick Mahomes during this game became comical at times. Throws into the ground were being called brilliant.)
• Jamal Agnew let the kicker tackle him on a return when he was coasting into the open field. Every return man will tell you that the kicker can NEVER be the tackler.
• Agnew committed an unforced fumble, with the Jags driving for a score, down ten, just over five minutes to go.

A dissertation could be written about the Jaguar approach to Travis Kelce but even with the tight end’s dominant performance, Jacksonville should have won this ballgame. They didn’t. Because of four mistakes.

Eagles 38, Giants 7

It’s not surprising the Eagles won. It is a bit surprising that the Giants – who have been defined lately by their grit – were completely toothless. I came away from this snooze of a game with three thoughts.

• I don’t remember a more difficult evaluation than Daniel Jones and I don’t envy Joe Schoen in the coming weeks. Jones is clearly a starting quarterback in the NFL but is he an upper echelon starting QB? Do upper echelon starting quarterbacks pitch quarterback ratings of 53 in the postseason? Would Jones accept a contract in the Kirk Cousins realm: short-term and fully guaranteed? Three years, $75 million?
• The Vikings were the hollowest 13-game winner in the history of the NFL.
• Did the Eagles even need Robert Quinn? They have pass rush coming from every direction and that’s going to make them incredibly difficult to beat in their building next week. Folks are fond of saying the Niners have the best roster in the sport. The Eagles have a real argument.

Read More …

Ultimately, I went 7-5 on Wildcard Weekend, completely whiffing on Cowboys/Bucs to finish. (Each of Brett Maher’s FOUR missed extra points kept the game from hitting the over.) Now we enter the NFL’s best weekend, and the league has served us four terrific games. The goal is simply to stay above .500 the rest of the way.

This week’s three-bullet approach will be a point on each team and a score prediction. Again, my picks against the spread and the total are in the final score predictions. All numbers from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jaguars at Chiefs (-8.5), Over/Under 53

• There is nothing particularly interesting about the Chiefs. We saw this story in New England for decades. When you have the best coach and quarterback at the same time, you’ll find yourself in just about every conference title game. The Reid/Mahomes Chiefs have reached a point where they don’t play an important game until late January.
• The Jags did not look good in their regular season finale, and that carried over into Los Angeles. Fun comeback, sure, but felt more like a Chargers collapse than a Jaguars creation. (Still mind blowing that the scapegoat for that loss has been the LA offensive staff and not the head coach.)
• Chiefs 40, Jaguars 27

Giants at Eagles (-7.5), Over/Under 48

• Which quarterback is going to have more success on the ground. Jalen Hurts averaged 4.6 yards per carry this season. Daniel Jones averaged 5.9. Giants’ receivers won’t be as wide open against this secondary, and Jones won’t have hours in the pocket against this pass rush. If Jones isn’t moving the chains with his legs, the Giants will be chasing this game.
• There are 2006 Chicago Bears vibes with this 2022 Eagles team. Nobody believed that Bears team was capable of making it to the Super Bowl, even though they’d been the best team in the conference the entire season. The Eagles are quite simply the far better team here. Theyll find a way.
• Eagles 27, Giants 20

Bengals at Bills (-5), Over/Under 48.5

• Who the hell knows? Honestly, how is this spread five points? There is very little discernible difference between these two clubs, so the small advantage goes to Buffalo’s home field. (But they were home last weekend and looked about as sloppy as they have all year.)
• If you’re looking for a Bengals advantage, it is turnovers. Bengals were +6 on the season and used a shocking turnover to advance from the first round. Bills broke even with turnover differential during the season and tried everything they could to fumble and drop their playoff opener. My brain tells me this is a budding upset. But…
• Bills 33, Bengals 30

Read More …

This is less a gambling guide, and more an overview of the weekend’s action with predictions. But my gambling choices are evident in my final score prognostications. (All lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.)

Seahawks at 49ers (-9.5), Over/Under: 42.5

• Just as we all predicted in August, the 2022 season could be decided by Brock Purdy’s performance in the postseason. Purdy was a player I liked in the draft, precisely because I watched him play football and not run around in his underwear in Indianapolis. He was a gamer at Iowa State, and those types of guys tend to find a role in the NFL.
• Seattle is playing with house money and teams in that position are always dangerous. This feels like a game that is 13-13 early in the second quarter, and gamblers start getting nervous, only to see it completely unravel for the Seahawks after a costly turnover or two.
• 49ers 34, Seahawks 16

Chargers (-2) at Jaguars, Over/Under: 47.5

• This was the predictable Saturday night contest, but if the league had some leadership, they would have put it in the premier Sunday night slot and marketed the hell out of these two young superstar QBs. Instead, the game of the weekend will be played in the least-watched time slot.
• This game feels incredibly even, and when that’s the case I look at three essential elements: quarterback, coach and building. Quarterback is a push right now, and the home field in Jacksonville isn’t much of one. But this is the most significant coaching mismatch of the week. Doug Pederson is a big game guy and Brandon Staley has absolutely no in-game feel. The latter will make a head-scratching decision (he always does) to decide this contest.
• Jaguars 27, Chargers 23

Dolphins at Bills (-13.5), Over/Under: 47

• Was it the Dolphins? Was it the league? Was it his family? It’s not important. Tua Tagovailoa is not playing in this ballgame and that is important for the long-term health of the young man’s brain. Tua will now have the next seven months to establish whether he wants to assume the risk of continuing his football career. One hopes that he’ll visit with serious neurologists during that time, doctors unaffiliated with the league.
• Without Tua, this is a serious mismatch.
• Bills 40, Dolphins 17

Read More …

DBB is currently on a short 40th birthday vacation in Atlantic City, NJ. If news breaks on the GM/coach front, we will break that sabbatical and have commentary right here.

All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Saturday

• Money Line Parlay: Bengals over Raiders, Bills over Patriots (+112).
  • I’m a believer in Bisaccia magic, and I think the Raiders pass rush will give Joe Burrow trouble, but the Bengals just have too much firepower to lose at home in the first round. I wouldn’t feel confident laying the six points, so I’m hanging onto the money line.
  • The most overrated victory of the season was New England’s Monday night victory in Buffalo. It wasn’t a real game. It was a football chess match played in a typhoon and Belichick might be the sport’s only master. The Bills are the better team, with the better quarterback. That’s where my money goes in the postseason.

Sunday

• Money Line Parlay: Bucs over Eagles, Cowboys over Niners (+113).
  • Philly is 0-7 against playoff teams this season and the way you exploit this Bucs defense is with an accurate quarterback. (The Eagles don’t have that.) Tom Brady isn’t losing to Jalen Hurts.
  • Cowboys vs. Niners profiles as the game of the week but I don’t think San Francisco’s secondary can hang with these Dallas weapons. How the hell are the Niners covering a receiving corps that goes 4-5 deep with talent? (They’re not.)
• Same Game Parlay: Chiefs -12.5 over Steelers / Under 46.5 points (+264).
  • I think the Steelers score ten points in this game, which means the Chiefs need to score only 23 to cover the number. It also means they need to score 37 to hit the over, and in frigid conditions that seems unlikely. 30-10 hits both bets safely and that’s my final score prediction.

Monday

For me, Cardinals at Rams is a gambling stay away. I don’t particularly trust either team. But the guide needs to have some action.

• Spread: Rams -4 over Cardinals.
  • Since beating the Bears on December 5th, the Cardinals are 1-4, only eking out a victory over the Cowboys. This is a team, and a head coach, that peak on Halloween every season. And last week, in a game they needed, they let Rashaad Penny run for 8.3 yards per carry. You need to be tough to win on the road in the playoffs. That’s not this team.
  • Why is it a stay away, then? Because Matthew Stafford has been sneaky terrible for over a month. Would anyone be surprised if he threw three picks and threw the Rams season away?