4-2 last weekend, losing only the coin flip game between Washington and Tampa and the game everybody lost, Los Angeles at Houston. (Where the hell did that Justin Herbert performance even come from?) Still, a very good start to the postseason and my quest to make some money off the NFL in 2025.

Saturday January 18th – 4:30 PM ET

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)

I’m going to lay the points because I think the Chiefs have spent the entire season preparing for this game and what they did in the 2024 regular season is not particularly relevant. I expect Mahomes to look like Mahomes, Kelce to look like Kelce, and Chris Jones is going to make it impossible for CJ Stroud to mount any kind of comeback. It is January. The Chiefs will Chief.

Saturday January 18th – 8:00 PM ET

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5)

Since the Hail Maryland, which I was lucky enough to witness in person, these are the score differentials of the Washington games: 5, 1, 8, 8, 23, 1, 3, 6, 4, 3. Since November, they rarely win big, and they rarely lose big.

I think Detroit will win this game, and ultimately win the NFC, but this strikes me as game wherein Washington could either (a) score early and keep it close, or (b) score late for the backdoor cover. Because I’ve got multiple working scenarios, I’ll take the points.

Read More …

Sunday 4:30 PM ET

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)

Packers are 7th against the run.

Eagles are 10th against the run.

But I would argue it is far more important for the Packers to establish the run in this game than it is for the Eagles. Jordan Love is not a great quarterback. He’s not going to be able to drop back 40 times Sunday and dice up this Philly secondary without being harassed by their deep front.

Vic Fangio is usually great in these spots; he’ll show Love looks he hasn’t shown another team this season. I wish the line was 2.5, but it’s not. I’ll survive. Lay the points.

Sunday 8:00 PM ET

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

The hardest game for me to predict this weekend.

Tampa just needed to beat a lifeless Saints team Sunday to win the division title, and they struggled mightily. Jayden Daniels has been good in 2024, but he’s still a rookie quarterback starting a playoff game on the road. This feels like the game with the widest range of potential outcomes.

I’m looking to the same stat as I did in the previous game to choose a winner. Tampa allows 97.8 yards per game on the ground, fourth in the league. Washington allows 137.5 yards per game on the ground, 30th in the league. Bucky Irving is the most talked about player this wildcard weekend. Lay the points.

Monday 8:00 PM ET

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Los Angeles Rams 

This game is entirely about Sam Darnold.

A week ago, the talk around the league was Minnesota committing long term to Darnold and dealing J.J. McCarthy to the highest bidder. But after Darnold laid an egg versus Detroit in arguably the biggest game of his career, will that narrative continue if he lays another in L.A. on Monday night in what is inarguably the biggest game of his career?

I’m rooting for the Darnold career resurgence, but I think he’s going to struggle with serious pressure in this spot. Take the points.

These notes/summaries were written during the actual quarters. Hindsight is not allowed.

QUARTER ONE

• A bit surprised to see D’Andre Swift at the starting tailback position to start the game. Not because of his performance but because of the Roschon Johnson media buzz all week.
• 3rd and 4 on first offensive drive. Perfectly called out to Cole Kmet and Rome Odunze blows the block. The play was not only going to be a first down, but it was also going to be a massive gain. The story of this early season hasn’t been scheme, in my mind. It’s been execution.
• 3rd and 5 on first defensive drive. Bears blitz and don’t get home. This is a very good defense but what will keep them from being elite is their inability to harass quarterbacks on pivotal third downs.
• Mark Sanchez does something analysts shouldn’t do, and that’s trying to make broad points on every single down. Some plays are just plays.
• Gervon Dexter Sr. is one hell of a player. When you have a pass rushing force in the middle of your defensive line, it allows so much creativity elsewhere. It will be interesting to see if the Bears start moving him around to create mismatches and complement Sweat.
• I’ve tweeted this a number of times, but I still don’t understand what this new kickoff rule is trying to achieve. Do they want more returns? Why would this increase returns? I just want to understand the logic.
• The “blindside block” rule…what is Braxton Jones supposed to do on that play? He’s directly next to the man. How long does he have to wait?
• Second offensive drive worse than the first. 1st and 25 is manageable, but not when you’re running up the gut on first down. This is the modern NFL, folks. The Bears have to be willing to chuck it down the field on early downs and this coaching staff continues to coach afraid.
• Tory Taylor makes my heart sing. What a weapon.
• Stafford gets Chris Williams to do the unthinkable and jump offsides. Another individual mistake. And fairly or unfairly, that kind of mistake falls on the head coach.

Score: Bears 0, Rams 3.

QUARTER TWO

• Stafford hits Tutu or an easy downfield completion on first down and the Bears commit another idiotic penalty. This time it is Brisker with a late hit.
• There’s a timeout! Where? On the field! Ohhhhhhh…
• Brisker was clearly out of bounds before the reversed interception. Here’s my question: why? Why does this team seem to be completely lacking in awareness through the first month of the season?
• Carter catches kickoff about a foot into the end zone. He still doesn’t return it. I’m so confused by the whole rule change.
• Bears run the ball on first down. Drink.

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Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.

Time to Get Things Sorted

The Rams are 29th in passing yards allowed per game through three weeks. They have only four sacks, while allowing seven passing touchdowns. Opposing quarterbacks are tossing to a rate of 127.3, ranking them next to last in the league. Line ’em up, spread ’em out, chuck it.

(They are also a bad rush defense, but does that matter?)

There is a grace period in the NFL, when teams are allowed to look messy and disjointed. Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal, hosts of my favorite NFL podcast, joked that while we the NFL fans were ready for this season, the NFL season was not ready for us. But that grace period usually ends after the first four weeks. The Bears have looked solid and prepared on defense, incoherent and unprepared on offense.

They don’t have to light the Rams up for 40 Sunday, but the non-rookies need to start producing.

Lumet III: Theatrical Roots/Theatrical Cinema

Let’s start linking these units together. We discussed Lumet’s ideological foundations with The Group Theater, and his development of early television aesthetics. So, it’s unsurprising that Lumet’s cinematic career, at least at the early stages, is peppered with stage adaptations.

Stage Struck (1958), his second film, is based on the play Morning Glory. But it’s a light comedy and produces light fare. Lumet quickly understands the in order to bring the stage to the screen, and achieve his sensibility, he has to bring the stage’s heavyweights to the screen. And while he’ll make some script alterations here and there, he’s loyal to the power of the text. (This will be discussed later in the term as one of the reasons Lumet is not a favorite of the auteur theory folks.)

Who are these heavyweights? Tennessee Williams. Arthur Miller. Eugene O’Neill. The three most important American dramatists of the first half of the 20th century. In 1960, Lumet adapted Williams’ Orpheus Descending as The Fugitive Kind, starring Marlon Brando. The film is a strange one, but worth seeing as an example of the dramatic hurdles one faces when bringing the stage to the screen. Lumet’s adaptation of Miller’s A View From the Bridge is far more straightforward, but a rather bland cinematic effort.

It is with Long Day’s Journey into Night that Lumet finds his theatrically adaptive form. It is a beautiful film and an exquisite piece of cinematic craftsmanship. From Film at Lincoln Center:

The definitive Eugene O’Neill on film, Lumet’s flawless adaptation of the author’s autobiographical, Pulitzer Prize-winning masterpiece stars Ralph Richardson as the embittered stage actor James Tyrone, husband to a recovering (or relapsing?) morphine addict (Oscar-nominee Katharine Helpburn) and father to an alcoholic fellow actor (Jason Robards Jr., recreating his role from the original Broadway production) and a tubercular merchant seaman (Dean Stockwell). Shot entirely in sequence at New York’s Chelsea Studios following a lengthy rehearsal period with the cast, Long Day’s Journey swept the acting prizes of the 1962 Cannes Film Festival, winning a collective Best Actor trophy for Richardson, Robards, and Stockwell, and Best Actress for Hepburn.

“After such an experience, I don’t see how one can niggle over whether it’s ‘cinema’ or merely ‘filmed theatre.’ Whatever it is, it’s great…Katharine Hepburn has surpassed herself—the most beautiful comedienne of the thirties and forties has become our greatest tragedienne; seeing her transitions in Journey, the way she can look eighteen or eighty at will, experiencing the magic in the art of acting, once can understand why the appellation ‘the divine’ has sometimes been awarded to certain actresses.”
—Pauline Kael

Lumet always felt he didn’t get enough credit for the cinema of this adaptation. I think anyone revisiting it now understands his displeasure was well-founded.

Here is my favorite speech from the piece. Watch the subtlety of Lumet’s camera, and the effectiveness of the lighting design, in allowing Dean Stockwell, as Edmund, to tell this story.

Read More …

Rams, nothing but sheep. 

Yet this will not be their field.

Bears call this one home.

Tomorrow: Week 4 game preview!

All times are ET. Home team in CAPS.

Saturday 4:30 PM – HOUSTON v. Cleveland (-2.5)

His name is Flacco.

No, not the Manhattan owl.

But still the man soars.

Saturday 8:00 PM – KANSAS CITY (-4.5) v. Miami

It will be frigid,

projected at six below.

Too bleak for Flipper.

Sunday 1:00 PM – BUFFALO (-10) v. Pittsburgh

It’s the Bar Bill wings,

versus Primanti Brothers.

Dip this win in blue.

Sunday 4:30 PM – DALLAS (-7.5) v. Green Bay

America’s team.

A nation’s eyes upon them.

Will they hold up? Yes.

Sunday 8:15 PM – DETROIT (-3) v. Los Angeles

Jared was a Ram.

And Matthew was a Lion.

The latter moves on.

Monday 8:00 PM – TAMPA BAY v. Philadelphia (-3)

The home team is bad,

and the road team might be worse.

Someone has to win.

The Picks: Cleveland -2.5, Kansas City -4.5, Pittsburgh +10, Dallas -7.5, Los Angeles +3.5, Philly -3 (but I won’t be betting the last one).