Last week my attempts to go 8-8 on point spreads and over/unders failed, as I came in a measly 5-8. (I was 13 seconds from a triumphant 6-8.) This week I smell a 4-4. Do you?

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AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-7), Over/Under 54.5

• The Bengals should not have beaten the Raiders. The Bengals would not have beaten the Titans if Ryan Tannehill showed up. This is a different animal, in a different environment. Chiefs win by multiple touchdowns, making the -7 an easy play.
• Not overthinking it. The Chiefs are playing. Over.

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NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5), Over/Under 45.5

• The Rams have had huge leads in their last three games and failed to sufficiently close two of them. Does this team have a killer instinct? They’ll need one against a Niners teams that is finding ways to win every week without the services of a quarterback. Rams play their most complete game of the year and cover the -3.5.
• These teams have played twice. First meeting total was 41, with the Rams only scoring 10. Second meeting, the Rams blew a big lead to the total of 51. Kyle Shanahan has dominated his matchups with Sean McVay, so it’s unlikely the Rams will shut down the Niners offense. That puts both teams in the 20s, and that means I’m slamming the over.

Atlantic City at 40 (Original Photo)

Last week, the guide was actually about gambling (i.e., trying to make money) and my slips in Atlantic City proved that advice to be solid. This week, I’m going to try and nail all eight general bets. That’s every spread and every over/under. Will I achieve that? Of course not. But it’s a worthy endeavor.

As always, all lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Saturday

4:30 PM ET

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-3.5) – Over/Under 47

• Has a number one seed ever received less attention than Tennessee? They’re the least sexy team remaining but they’re also one that hasn’t been at full strength in months. If Derrick Henry returns – and all signs are pointing to him doing so – I think they move on. But the involvement of the hook (that extra half point) makes me nervous. Still, I’m taking Titans -3.5.
• Usually when I’m playing the number, I play guess the score. I keep settling in around 23-17. Maybe 24-20? 27-17? One of these teams needs a major offensive output to get over. Under 47.

8:15 PM ET

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-6) – Over/Under 47

• Since I picked the Packers to go to the Super Bowl, I’m picking them to win this game. But I think six is a lot of points for a game with projected weather conditions around 0 degrees. Packers win, because it’s not the NFC title game yet, but it’s a close one. 49ers +6.
• Kyle Shanahan is going to want this game slowed down to a crawl. Control the line of scrimmage. Keep it in the 20s. And I don’t think this Packers defense is good enough to prevent that, even with injury concerns at QB for San Francisco. Under 47.

Sunday

3:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) – Over/Under 48.5

• Do we overreact to the Rams victory over the Cardinals Monday night? Anybody paying attention over the last six weeks knows the Cardinals have been awful. Do we overreact to the Bucs embarrassment of the Eagles early Sunday? The Eagles have a quarterback who can’t throw and were ultimately 0-8 against playoff teams this season. Sunday is the biggest game of Matthew Stafford’s career. Stafford is the story. I’m taking Tom Brady. Bucs -3.
• The first time these two played – in September – Brady threw for 432 yards. Stafford threw for 343 yards. That’s nearly 800 yards through the air, folks. This game is going Over 48.5.

6:30 PM ET

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) – Over/Under 54

• When the line is below three points, I ignore it and just pick the winner. And I find it hard to pick against Josh Allen right now. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense thrives when he’s manufacturing pressure but if the Chiefs overcommit, Allen will eat them alive on the ground. The winner of this game feels destined for the Super Bowl. Bills +1.5.
• How do these two offenses stay under the number? Buffalo’s defense is very good, but they’ve been diced up several times this season, especially by any team with a competent rush attack. And Kansas City’s discovery of Jerick McKinnon last week gives them an additional element with which Les Frazier’s unit must deal. Over 54. 

DBB is currently on a short 40th birthday vacation in Atlantic City, NJ. If news breaks on the GM/coach front, we will break that sabbatical and have commentary right here.

All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Saturday

• Money Line Parlay: Bengals over Raiders, Bills over Patriots (+112).
  • I’m a believer in Bisaccia magic, and I think the Raiders pass rush will give Joe Burrow trouble, but the Bengals just have too much firepower to lose at home in the first round. I wouldn’t feel confident laying the six points, so I’m hanging onto the money line.
  • The most overrated victory of the season was New England’s Monday night victory in Buffalo. It wasn’t a real game. It was a football chess match played in a typhoon and Belichick might be the sport’s only master. The Bills are the better team, with the better quarterback. That’s where my money goes in the postseason.

Sunday

• Money Line Parlay: Bucs over Eagles, Cowboys over Niners (+113).
  • Philly is 0-7 against playoff teams this season and the way you exploit this Bucs defense is with an accurate quarterback. (The Eagles don’t have that.) Tom Brady isn’t losing to Jalen Hurts.
  • Cowboys vs. Niners profiles as the game of the week but I don’t think San Francisco’s secondary can hang with these Dallas weapons. How the hell are the Niners covering a receiving corps that goes 4-5 deep with talent? (They’re not.)
• Same Game Parlay: Chiefs -12.5 over Steelers / Under 46.5 points (+264).
  • I think the Steelers score ten points in this game, which means the Chiefs need to score only 23 to cover the number. It also means they need to score 37 to hit the over, and in frigid conditions that seems unlikely. 30-10 hits both bets safely and that’s my final score prediction.

Monday

For me, Cardinals at Rams is a gambling stay away. I don’t particularly trust either team. But the guide needs to have some action.

• Spread: Rams -4 over Cardinals.
  • Since beating the Bears on December 5th, the Cardinals are 1-4, only eking out a victory over the Cowboys. This is a team, and a head coach, that peak on Halloween every season. And last week, in a game they needed, they let Rashaad Penny run for 8.3 yards per carry. You need to be tough to win on the road in the playoffs. That’s not this team.
  • Why is it a stay away, then? Because Matthew Stafford has been sneaky terrible for over a month. Would anyone be surprised if he threw three picks and threw the Rams season away?

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And this is a game, at least one on paper, the Bears are expected to win. Do I expect them to win? Stay tuned.

Chase, Higgins, Boyd.

That’s the game.

The Bears should be able to move the football against the Bengals, especially at home. (They were able to comfortably move the ball for much of the game in Los Angeles, against a far superior unit.) But moving the football is only as valuable as the points generated and the Bears, especially with Dalton at quarterback, lack explosiveness in the red zone.

The Bengals have one of the more explosive collections of pass catchers in the game. Ja’Marr Chase is going to be a top receiver in the league sooner than later. Tee Higgins is built like a tight end but runs like a wideout. Tyler Boyd is the sort of crafty inside guy that will give the Bears fits all year. Sure, the Bears are three-point favorites but the Bengals seem like a matchup nightmare for this Bears secondary.

Norm, the great.

I was on a golf course when Reverend Dave called me. I didn’t answer. People don’t call me, so I figured, “This is either Justin Fields is now the starter or something bad.” A few moments later I got a text from another friend. “Gutted” was all it read, and this is not a person known for their emotional responses to anything. A few moments later a text thread began between my two oldest friends – two guys I have known since I’m four years old. The thread began with a clip montage of Norm Macdonald on Conan.

And I knew.

I don’t want to talk about why Norm was one of the funniest people to ever set foot on this earth, or what he meant to me. I feel like Norm, of all people, would fucking hate that. So I’ll just share some of my favorite Norm stuff.

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Norm Macdonald Live.

The silliest, craziest talk show ever produced.

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Norm at the ESPYs (1998)

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Norm with Conan.

Norm MacDonald’s moth joke is maybe the funniest five minutes of television ever: https://t.co/tXXuzoq6FK

— Adam Steinbaugh (@adamsteinbaugh) September 14, 2021

Man what a legend Norm Macdonald was.

His legendary appearance on Conan where he roasts Courtney Thorne Smith for doing a movie with Carrot Top was legendary. pic.twitter.com/Gi2NP2gQky

— Danny Deraney (@DannyDeraney) September 14, 2021

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What follows will be a stream of consciousness blog, written in real time as I watch the the Bears and Bengals practice against each, in pads, with referees and paying fans. There will be no editing after the fact and, honestly, very little done while I’m writing. 

6:48 PM (All times presented in Eastern Standard)

One thing matters tonight: health. Here’s hoping every Bears starter that jogs onto the field, jogs off the field. The Bears starters could look terrific or look like total shit. Who cares? The season is still a full month away. Mitch Trubisky just met this entire receiving corps, with the exception of Kevin White. One would hope their chemistry would be drastically improved in September.

6:55 PM

I drink. A lot. But I also take off chunks of time, famously the first two months of every year. I haven’t had a drink in a week and it’s very funny to watch how my sweet tooth develops as a result. (There is so much damn sugar in booze.) Today I saw M&M peanuts at the grocery store and it was like the most beautiful girl in the world offered me a handy in the candy aisle. (Good name for a song – “Handy in the Candy”) I couldn’t resist. As I write this, I’m eating them like popcorn.

7:00 PM

I never knew Cincinnati was referred to “The Queen City”. Maybe in the second half I’ll google why. I’ve never been to Cincinnati. I can’t for the life of me think of a reason I would go to Cincinnati, unless Cincinnati Playhouse in the Park wanted to produce something of mine.

And the Bengals’ play-by-play guy just referred to the Bears as “the 0-1 Chicago Bears”. Do broadcasters really do that? They use win/loss record in the preseason to label the opponent?

7:07 PM

KICKOFF! Taquan Mizzell is back to return. So I see the Bears are very concerned with tonight’s game.

7:09 PM

Trubisky throws a bullet into the hands of Kevin White and he drops it. On the play, Trubisky got “roughed”. That’s what you want, your starting QB and the future of the franchise taking cheap shots from the league’s dirtiest team. In a practice game.

7:13 PM

Trubisky just took off on third down and I literally screamed “NO!”

7:15 PM

People seem to think I want them to hate the preseason too. I literally don’t care what anybody does for enjoyment, as long as its within the boundaries of the law. I watch Golf Channel 10 hours a day. I don’t expect other people to do that. I have multiple Fiddler on the Roof cast recordings in my car. I don’t care if you share my opinions. But that ain’t gonna stop me from sharing them.

7:21 PM

John Timu. Apparently got slower.

I have golf on my actual TV and they run commercials constantly for a local casino called Empire City. Here’s what I don’t get: why? The ad is just people walking out of the casino building with a pile of cash. They don’t advertise what’s special about their place. They just advertise that you can walk in without a lot of money and walk out with way more. Why does this require advertising? Everybody knows what a casino is. Just flash the address.

7:27 PM

Taquan draw on first down. Exciting shit.

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