The following is the first of a four-part series breaking down why the other teams in the NFC North won’t be contenders this season. (The Packers get two parts.)

The Vikings made the playoffs last year because Adrian Peterson had an eight-game stretch that was as good as any he’s had in his career. If the now 31-year-old back can’t do that again, they won’t be taking the next step so many are predicting for them.

After a stink bomb in their opener, AP averaged 116.3 rushing yards per game, scored five touchdowns and his team went 7-1, averaging 24.4 points per game.

After that, he averaged 71.1 yards per game and the Vikings went 4-4, averaging 22 points per game (despite blowing out the Bears and the Giants).

So outside of Peterson’s historic eight-game stretch, they went 4-5 outside and averaged 19.9 points per game.

Maybe we should never bet against Peterson, but history has shown us we should definitely never bet against Father Time. Peterson is 31 and had 39 more rushing attempts than any other player in the league last year. Just like 2013, a drop off is likely. Betting on a 31-year-old running back, no matter how great he was, just seems unwise.

If Peterson can’t carry the team again, who can? There’s no evidence it’s Teddy Bridgewater.

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• Context is the most important thing when it comes to evaluating training camp, but it often gets lost in the shuffle.

That was my biggest takeaway from Bears training camp Saturday morning as I watched the team run through routine drills before a few sessions of 11-on-11 scrimmaging. Daniel Braverman is too crafty for the Jacoby Glenns of the world to stand a chance, but does that mean he’s really standing out? He has stood out in the way that he’s caught more passes than any other player in camp, that he’s clearly better than Kieran Duncan and Derek Keaton, but the constant reports about him excelling are misleading because of who he is competing with and against.

There is an inherent problem with moving Braverman up the depth chart: Is he better than Marc Mariani? I don’t think he is and Mariani towers over Braverman (you don’t understand the size difference until you see them standing side-by-side. Mariani is significantly bigger). I expect Braverman to continue to stand out against the bottom of the depth chart guys and that should earn him a roster spot. I’d warn against anyone suggesting he’s going to earn actual playing time this season, however.

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It is understood that camp has yet to begin and injuries can always pile up and derail a season before Labor Day. But at this point in the calendar, the Bears look an awful lot like a 10-6 team. Why? Five reasons.

Reason #1: Run Defense

The old baseball maxim is you need to be strong defensively up the middle. I’ve always argued the same goes for football. If you can clog the middle of the field, stop the run, cover the tight end in the seam, prevent the home run, you can defend any offense in the sport.

The 2016 Bears have the potential to be great up the middle. Hicks and Goldman are immovable objects. Freeman and Trevathan are top tier middle linebackers. Amos, while still developing, is an already terrific closer. This crop of players has the ability to make opposing offenses one-dimensional. And that will free up a pretty solid collection of pass rushers to wreck the game.

Stat Prediction: Bears will jump from 22nd in yards rushing allowed per game to top 10.

Reason #2: Fast Start

Bears open at Houston, playing a Texans team that better hope Brock Osweiler is worth the ridiculous amount of money they gave him. They are then home to Philly, playing a team in transition. They then travel to Dallas to play a Cowboys team they’ve beaten handily over the last few years. Then home to Calvin Johnson-less Detroit.

Stat Prediction: Bears open 4-0.

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Here are the 10 best players on the team as they enter training camp.

10. Kevin White, WR. There’s definitely projection in this ranking but almost everyone has the same report on White: stud. While far from a finished product, most expect him to be a playmaker right away. He has the potential to be one of the best wide receivers in the league.

9. Jerrell Freeman, LB. When I watched Freeman, the one thing that really stood out to me was his ability to make blockers miss. Even in a phone booth, he’d make a little move to slip the block and make a play. Last season was by far his best, but the arrow seems to be pointing up even though he’s 30 years old.

8. Adrian Amos, S. A lot has been made of Amos not having ball skills, but I’m not too worried about that. He’s a torpedo who delivered more big hits than anyone else on the team last year. He has the potential to be one of the best safeties in the league.

7. Willie Young, LB. It was evident when Young got back to 100 percent last season. He had 18 hurries and  5 1/2 sacks in his final eight games as he recovered for a torn achilles suffered a year earlier. In two years with the Bears, he has 70 tackles and 16.5 sacks

6. Eddie Goldman, DL. A bit of projection in this one too but it seems safe. He was a good player at just 21 years old last year, showing more pass-rush than the Bears could have imagined. He struggled against the run early last year, but got better. He says he’s leaner this year, if that’s true, he could be able to dominate the middle of the line.

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Here are players who could be competing for starting jobs this season.

42. Khari Lee, TE. Most fans didn’t like giving up a 2017 draft pick to acquire Lee, but the Bears like him. He was a solid blocker last year and has potential as a receiver. Most fans underestimate how difficult it is for tight ends to make an impact as rookies but don’t be surprised if he takes a big step up this year.

41. Ego Ferguson, DL. When he played, Ferguson was immovable in the run game, but didn’t provide any pass rush. He was a starter, but they’ve added a lot to the position this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if he started and I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t make the team.

40. Sherrick McManis, CB. Should never play defense again but he’s a terrific special teams player.

39. Ka’Deem Carey, RB. A tough runner who keeps his legs churning. Will need to improve on specials and in pass protection to make the team this year.

38. Joshua Bellamy, WR. Made some big plays in the offense and is a quality special teams player. With Marquess Wilson likely to be out all of camp, Bellamy could have an impact on the outside again this year.

37. Nick Kwiatkoski, LB. I don’t expect the fourth-round pick to play a lot in the defense as a rookie but he should make an impact on special teams. Needs to get stronger, but showed good instincts in college and is an above average athlete.

36. Sam Acho, LB. Doesn’t do anything at a very high level, but he’s OK at everything. A solid defensive player and a quality special teams player. Still might have a hard time making the final roster.

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Training camp is here and the Bears have a number of interesting young players coming to camp who are worth getting to know. They also have a lot of players who you probably don’t need to know anything about.

To save everyone time, I did a little research on each player and ranked all those entering camp. You’re welcome.

Here are the guys on the bottom of the roster:

59. Jonathan Anderson, LB. His performance against the Packers on Thanksgiving might have been the best the Bears got out of any of their inside linebackers last year. He’s fast, but can’t beat blocks and may not have the necessary instincts. Still someone to watch in camp as a possible special teams contributor.

58. Tony Moeaki, TE. Just seems like he’s been done for five years. Worth a camp invite, but I don’t see him being much more than that.

57. Ben Braunecker, TE. Nicknamed Bronk because everyone wants to be nicknamed after Rob Gronkowski. Went undrafted in a fairly week TE class, but he’s a good athlete and he’s from Harvard.

56. Cornelius Washington, DL. A super freak athlete who hasn’t been able to have an impact on the Bears defense. He has been a good special teams player, but is coming off a serious injury.

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Training camp is two weeks ago and the Bears have a number of interesting young players coming to camp who are worth getting to know.They also have a lot of players who you probably don’t need to know anything about.

At the time of this writing, the Bears only had 90 players on their roster. Then they made a slew of moves and got down to 88. To save everyone time, I did a little research on each player and ranked each player who is entering camp. You’re welcome.

88. Jarrett Grace, LB. UDFA, non-combine invite from Notre Dame. Under 100 tackles in collegiate career.

87. Derek Keaton, WR. Walk on at Georgia Southern. Six catches last year, small not athletic. Was primarily a kick returner in college.

86. Joe Sommers, TE.  UDFA from University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh. Good athlete, decent size. Very low level of competition and didn’t dominate there even.

85. Donovan Williams, OL. Good size. Impressed them enough during a tryout in May to earn a contract.

84. Keith Browner, DL. Played three games for Houston in 2014, but he’s 28 years old and hasn’t had an impact anywhere yet.

83. Cornelius Edison, C. Good size, signed to practice squad last year.

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Administrative Note: This will be the first of 300 columns with the same headline.

When the 2021 NFL Hall of Fame Class is announced, Charles Tillman’s name should be on the list.

It’s not going to happen. Tillman spent his career being thought of as just a local hero even though he played in a major media market on a team that regularly had one of the best defenses in the NFL. While Tillman was one of the best players in the NFL, he was never really recognized for it.

Charles Woodson is a lock to be on that list. Tillman was a better player.

Woodson was most known for his ability to take the ball away, but he wasn’t necessarily better at that than Tillman. Woodson had a combined 98 interceptions and forced fumbles in 254 games. Peanut had 82 in 168 games. If you were to average that out to a 16 game season, Tillman would’ve averaged nearly eight per season, compared to around six for Woodson.

Woodson had more interceptions, but even there the difference isn’t great. Woodson averaged 4.1 interceptions per 16 games, while Tillman was at 3.6. While he could take the ball away, Woodson wasn’t nearly as good in coverage as Tillman was (the Packers typically put Tramon Williams on the other team’s best receiver).

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From Adam’s Facebook page, located HERE:

I haven’t shared this story publicly, but with the news of Charles Tillman’s retirement, it seems like the right time:

My son, James, has a couple congenital heart defects that will eventually require surgery. We first learned about these defects in 2014 when James was born prematurely and spent two months in the hospital. The fall of 2014 was stressful not only because of what was going on at home, but also because the Bears were going through a drama-filled season and it seemed like something crazy was happening every day at work. As if that wasn’t enough, 87.7 The Game suddenly folded in November, creating a tumultous (and awkward) final month and a half of the season.

Meanwhile, Charles Tillman was going through his own personal hardship after suffering a season-ending triceps injury for the second year in a row. But in the middle all the chaos, Tillman got word of what was going on with James from former PR guru Mike Corbo and pulled me aside at Halas Hall to talk to me about what was going on. As you may know, one of Tillman’s daughters needed a heart transplant when she was just three-months-old, so he could relate to the fear we were experiencing after hearing doctors put the words “heart” and “surgery” in the same sentence.

It was a small gesture, but one that meant a lot to both my wife and me. The fact that Corbo took the time to set that up and Tillman took the time to talk to me about everything won’t be forgotten.

I tend to be very skeptical when I hear people say that a particular athlete is “a good guy” or even “a bad guy” because the truth is that (for the most part) we don’t really know them that well. In Tillman’s case, I think the work he does with The Cornerstone Foundation speaks for itself, but there are also many other stories like this one that show the type of character he displayed on and off the field during his career.

The 2014 season seemingly got uglier and uglier every day, but Tillman didn’t go anywhere. He was hurt and likely knew it was his last season as a Bear, but he was right there on the field every day trying to coach up his teammates, when many players would have collected their money and watched from home. From time-to-time when I saw him, Tillman checked in with me on James and that continued even after the season when he was no longer with the organization.

I’ve said this before, but watching Tillman go one-on-one with Calvin Johnson twice a year was a highlight of my time covering football. And the “Peanut Punch” was an important contribution to the game. Congrats to Charles Tillman on retirement. A great player, a great Bear and a great person.

Special thanks to Hoge for allowing me to share this.