Many fans have already made their decision on the 2012 Chicago Bears and their long-tenured head coach. Season? Over. Coach? Fired. No, Lovie Smith did not drop five touchdown passes this year. No, Lovie Smith did not attempt to arm tackle Adrian Peterson as an undersized safety. No, Lovie Smith did not injure the Bears QB, best interior offensive lineman, middle linebacker, Pro Bowl corner, kicker…etc. But Lovie Smith is the man in charge. And just as he perhaps received too much credit (accompanied by inane contract extension discussion) for the 7-1 Bears, now the coach is receiving abundant blame for four losses over the last five games.

Is it fair? Nobody cares. This is the NFL. Head coaches are judged by one thing only: wins and losses. At 7-1 the Bears were winning. At 1-4 they are losing. But just as their team does, Lovie Smith and this current crop of Bears coaches control their own destiny. If they win out they will make the postseason. (They may not need all three, of course.) And if they make the postseason as either a wild card or somewhat less probably as the NFC North champion it is unlikely Phil Emery will be looking to hire his first head coach come the dead of winter.

These are not games to dread for Bears fans. These are not games to watch hiding behind an oak tree, grasping your childhood blanky. Are the Bears a great team charging toward a Super Bowl crown? Absolutely not. But are they clearly in the discussion as one of the six best teams in the conference? Absolutely. And its the six best teams in the conference who make the tournament to decide who’ll travel to New Orleans.

We constantly overrate regular season competition as “litmus test” games or “must-wins” or say things like, “We’ll know a lot about this team after this one.” There is no overrating the three-game stretch – beginning with the Green Bay Packers – facing the Chicago Bears. These are the definitive games of the 2012 regular season and may be remembered as the definitive games of Lovie Smith’s tenure. If the Bears win them they’ll play at least one meaningful game in January and Smith will coach in Chicago the next three seasons. If they lose enough of them to miss the postseason, the tenure will be over and we’ll all remember Lovie for “Rex is our quarterback” and a Super Bowl failure.

It will not be determined in the backrooms of Halas Hall or on the pages of the two major dailies. It will be determined on the field. Starting at Soldier Field. Starting against the Green Bay Packers.

Because this is what comes from losing these last two miserable games, now attention must be focused on those teams competing for the wild card slots in the NFC.

Chicago Bears

home Green Bay, at Arizona, at Detroit

Thoughts: Who the hell knows but it seems almost likely the Bears will be 8-6 heading into Detroit with a win-and-you’re-in scenario. If they beat Green Bay at home next weekend their road is considerably easier.

Seattle Seahawks

at Buffalo (Toronto), home San Francisco, home St. Louis

Thoughts: They don’t lose at home and their win in Chicago has clearly reignited their season. I think they’ll be the only contender to run the table and that will buy them an express ticket to a first round beat down in New Jersey. (It looks like you would much rather be the 6 seed than the 5 seed in the NFC.)

Washington Redskins

at Cleveland, at Philadelphia, home Dallas

Thoughts: Two things working against the Redskins right now. (1) The health status of Bob Griffin. Kirk Cousins will be a good player down the road but I’m not sure he is ready lead a team on a playoff charge. (2) Cleveland and Philly are not pushovers right now, especially with Nick Foles.

Dallas Cowboys

home Pittsburgh, home New Orleans, at Washington

Thoughts: They’ve lost to Seattle and Chicago so Dallas needs one of those traffic jam tiebreakers to happen. If Seattle is the team I think will run the table, Dallas is the team I think will slowly walk the table and MAYBE win one of their last three.

Minnesota Vikings

at St. Louis, at Houston, home Green Bay

Thoughts: I think Minnesota’s win over Chicago was their Super Bowl. They will be significant underdogs the rest of the way and I think they’ll be content to finish 8-8 and make their decision at quarterback in the off-season. (They can’t start 2013 with an unopposed Christian Ponder. Someone else must be brought in. Alex Smith?)

I didn’t see it coming. I didn’t see this Bears team playing the kind of game they played Sunday in Minneapolis. Now the last three weeks of the season will be a painful exercise in scoreboard watching. There will be a lot of big picture writing this week but today we’ll focus on the game.

• What is going on with dropping touchdowns? Seriously, when did this start? If the Bears simply catch their touchdowns they most likely win these last two games. Yesterday it was not only Jeffery and Hester dropping touchdowns that haunted the receiving corps. It was also Mashall dropping a key fourth down and Kellen Davis – ever so reliable – dropping a ball over the middle on a key drive. Its hard to criticize Mike Tice’s play calling when Brandon Marshall is the only fella catching the ball.
• There may not have been a bigger play in the game than J’Marcus Webb’s holding call. Emotionally devastating to the drive and team.
• Chris Conte will never tackle Adrian Peterson.
• Kelvin Hayden did not make anyone forget Tim Jennings.
• I don’t think I’ve ever seen a team so content not to throw the ball as Minnesota was Sunday. They had no interest.
• Gabe Carimi may not be a guard if he’s asked to pull. Looked way to slow when whiffing outside.
• One interception on Jeffery. One on Cutler. Cutler was a bit high on a lot of throws but he just received zero help.
• The real shame of Kellen Davis is yesterday we saw how productive a tight end can be in this offense. They practically run 10 plays a game designed for the position.
• Kyle Adams. Stay in bounds.
• Has Eric Weems officially become the kickoff return man? Because if he has, that is idiotic. I don’t care if Devin Hester is struggling. He’s the return man.
• James Brown is going to play before the season is out.
• I wonder if it would have been different game if the Bears had a field goal kicker available.
• Decent game from Matt Forte but yesterday you saw why I didn’t think Forte was worth elite money this summer. Elite money goes to the back on the other sideline.
• Jason Campbell was excellent. That was a positive.

There’s more but I lack the passion to list them. This will be a bizarre Packers Week but one thing is certain: the Bears need Sunday’s game about as much as any regular season game in recent memory.

Three final thoughts:

• If the Bears don’t win today they’ll face a mighty difficult road to the postseason so an argument can be made on today being a must win. If the Bears lose the focus will immediately shift to Lovie Smith’s future with the club.
• No excuses from either side of the ball today. Cutler and the offense need to put up 28 points or more and the defense needs to mildly contain AP while limiting Christian Ponder’s connections with Kyle Rudolph. If those three things don’t happen, folks start receiving blame.
• I like that Brandon Marshall wants to “carry a bigger load” but how in the hell is that possible? Cutler-to-Marshall is already the entirety of the Bears offense. How about a running game emerge and dominate the line of scrimmage?

Big game. As always you can follow my thoughts throughout the day and during tonight’s Lions v. Packers game by checking out @dabearsblog on Twitter.

Well the blogs picks contest is basically in the books. I Bleed Navy + Orange is going to be the champion without making another selection in the deal. But what the hell? Let’s put the lines out there.

(Home team in CAPS)

WASHINGTON -2 Baltimore

CLEVELAND -6.5 Kansas City

INDIANAPOLIS -5 Tennessee

New York Jets -3 JACKSONVILLE

Chicago -3 MINNESOTA

Atlanta -3 CAROLINA

TAMPA BAY -7 Philadelphia

St. Louis -3 BUFFALO

CINCINNATI -3 Dallas

SAN FRANCISCO -10 Miami

NEW YORK GIANTS -4.5 New Orleans

SEATTLE -10 Arizona

GREEN BAY -6.5 Detroit

Selecion du blogpere: For no other reason than I’m emotionally against giving this crappy Jets team points on the road, I’ll take the Jags.

Another terrific conversation with our buddy Cameron Worrell. During the chat Cam discusses:

• Why the defense has struggled with read-option quarterbacks over these last two season.
• What it feels like to be a helpless defender at the end of a game like Sunday’s.
• The toughness and leadership of Brian Urlacher and why the Bears will miss him over the next month.
• How Geno Hayes and Kelvin Hayden will handle the step into the starting lineup.
• A defensive player’s approach to tackling Adrian Peterson.
• Whether the Bears are currently one of the top defenses in the league and where he thinks they’ll be a month from now.

Give it a listen. It’s worth it.

It is very difficult to write another game preview for Bears v. Vikings when I just wrote one two weeks ago and almost nothing has changed. The Bears still need the game. The Vikings still need the game. Percy Harvin is not playing. Adrian Peterson and Jared Allen are.

But I shall do so anyway.

WHY DO I LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS THIS WEEK?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.
• Christian Ponder’s last six games have been – with the exception of an excellent performance against Detroit – terrible. Exclude the Lions game and Ponder is completing just over 50% of his passes (50.12), he’s thrown 4 TDs and 7 INTs and his quarterback rating is 49.54. (By no coincidence, Harvin hasn’t played an entire game since October 25th.)

ADRIAN PETERSON IS TRULY GREAT

I can’t root against Adrian Peterson in the same way  could never root against Barry Sanders. I have too much respect for his greatness. The difference between Peterson and Sanders? This:

I’d like to write the Bears need to stop Peterson to beat the Vikings but the Packers allowed AP to go off for 200+ and still won by double digits. So I would say this to the Bears defense: limit AP and win.

IT IS JAY CUTLER’S TIME

28 points. That should be the minimum number for Jay Cutler and the Bears offense this week. 28 points. The Bears defense is reeling off Russell Wilson’s two-drive, 177 yard mauling at Soldier Field and right now can not be expected to shutdown the Vikings with the ease they did at Soldier Field in late November. We’ve all commented on the progress being made by Mike Tice and the offense but now – over these final four games – that progress needs to translate into points. 28 points. Sunday.

PAULA COLE: WHERE HAS ALL THE PASS RUSH GONE?

Here is my problem with the Bears pass rush: over the last three games the combination of Peppers, Idonije, McClellin and Wootton has three total sacks and even those three sacks feel completely unimpressive. Watching the Bears defensive line up close on Sunday, only two players jumped off the field: Henry Melton (spectacular) and actually Nate Collins. If the Bears don’t find a consistent edge rush over the next month they will do no better than .500.

ANALYZE THIS, THAT & THE OTHER…

• The loss to the Seahawks overshadowed two things. One was of course Cutler’s magnificent performance. But the other was Adam Podlesh, at crunch time, dropping a punt inside the 5. Podlesh has been better of late and I’ve noticed.
• Players on notice: Geno Hayes (you can’t be 54 but you can tackle), Kelvin Hayden (you can’t be Tim Jennings but you can try), DJ Moore (back in the nickel spot) & Eric Weems (be smarter on kick returns).
• I would hope the Bears defensive meeting rooms this week were infatuated with Kyle Rudolph. If  Ponder can’t get the ball to his big tight end he can’t get the ball down the field so it’s incumbent upon the combination of LB/nickel/safety to keep Rudolph from exploiting the middle of the field now to be vacated by the absence of Urlacher. (Side note: the Bears have used Briggs and Roach far more over the middle this year than in previous years due to the limitations on Brian’s legs.)
• If Christian Ponder were a read option quarterback, I’d take the Vikings to win.

PREDICTION

As the week has progressed I’ve started to believe the Bears are going to deliver a big effort in Minnesota Sunday. I think there will be a testiness about the defense and a take charge nature about the offense. And if Earl Bennett catches the damn football Sunday I believe we were primed to see a 300+, 3 or 4 TD effort from Jay Cutler.

Chicago Bears 30, Minnesota Vikings 13

If the acquisition of Brandon Marshall for a couple of silly third-round draft picks were the only move of Phil Emery’s first off-season as General Manager of the Chicago Bears, the off-season would have to be considered a success. Marshall is not only having the best season in the history of Bears wide receivers. He is having one of the great offensive seasons in the organization’s history…period. And if the Bears can ever give the quarterback a few seconds to look down field, Marshall’s numbers will have nowhere to go but up.

But Emery was also applauded for adding depth to the Bears roster in positions that had been somewhat neglected in recent years by the Angelo administration. He allowed Corey Graham to walk out the door but compensated for that loss by adding Blake Costanzo for special teams tackles and Kelvin Hayden for a veteran presence at corner. Knowing his linebackers were not the springiest of chickens, Emery brought in Geno Hayes – a well-regarded underperformer who would serve as a fourth outfielder of sorts for a unit sporting a pair of superstars. And while the Bears had utilized Danieal Manning and Earl Bennett in the past to step in for Devin Hester on returns, Emery collected Eric Weems – a terrific return man in Atlanta –  to add a spark and another body on the receiving corps.

Now with five days until a pivotal division tilt with the Minnesota Vikings,  Hayden, Hayes and Weems are all preparing to play starting/pivotal roles.

The Bears can not lean on the injury excuse should they fail over these final four days of the 2012 regular season. Losing Brian Urlacher or Tim Jennings or Devin Hester or Earl Bennett are not valid enough reasons for this campaign to be calebhanied into a redundantly painful death. Losing Jay Cutler is an excuse. Losing Brandon Marshall – 88% of their current offense – would be an excuse. And after watching him dominate Sunday I’m not sure losing Henry Melton would not be a a deathblow to the entirety of this defensive unit. But those three men will be on the field Sunday in Minnesota and most likely for the remainder of the year.

Emery has only had one off-season, it’s true, and this season won’t fall on him should the Bears fail to make the tournament. But the GM’s ability as a talent evaluator will face scrutiny if players like Hayden, Hayes and Weems fail to produce down the stretch. And Emery’s draft picks – especially McClellin, Rodriguez and Jeffery – will be pivotal in solidifying a roster than seems to be falling faster than the Yanks and Rebs at Gettysburg.

Championships are not won with roster depth. Teams need their stars to perform and perform well in the postseason if they want to be crowned Super Bowl champion. But seasons ARE survived with depth and the Bears may soon find themselves in need of survival. Will Emery’s added talent be able to deliver? It is the question of December and its answer may determine whether the Bears are relevant in January.

Here is where the Bears stand as they enter what Lovie Smith labels “the final quarter” of the 2012 regular season. They are 8-4, tied for the lead atop the NFC North (which they’d currently lose on a tiebreaker) and two games ahead of a small crop of middling contenders for a wild card position. None of the final four games of this year are unimportant by any means but the next two – at Minnesota and home to Green Bay – will define how the performance of this schedule will be looked at in January and beyond.

Minnesota

If the Bears beat the Vikings Sunday in Minneapolis it would essentially end any hope for the purple to make the postseason and all-but-assuredly put the Bears in as no less than a wild card. They would hold at least a two game lead on Dallas, Minnesota and St. Louis while also holding head-to-head tiebreakers over each one. (The only club that might pose a threat is Tampa but they have a schedule that does not lend itself to making up two games.)

If the Bears lose to the Vikings, all bets are off and the remainder of the regular season becomes a dogfight, complete with a LOT of scoreboard watching.

Green Bay

If the Bears lose to Minnesota, their home game with Green Bay is a battle for survival – not for the division title.

But if the Bears beat the Vikings (and the Packers hold serve against the Lions) it sets up a great December showdown between two heavily-flawed but talented teams on the Lakefront. If the Bears won they would have a one game lead with two remaining. If the Bears lost, the final two weeks of the season would become about deciphering what road stadium they’ll be traveling to on Wild Card Weekend.

And think about it this way. All of the wins and all of the losses…will any of them mean anything to you if the Bears wake up on Monday morning, December 17th as leaders of the NFC North? If the Bears beat the Packers on the Lakefront and take control of the division will an overtime loss to Russell Wilson or humiliation at the hands of Colin Kaepernick be any more than a footnote to the 2012 regular season?

These next two games are everything. They are the season.

With the game on the line, nursing a 14-10 lead, the Bears allowed rookie quarterback Russell Wilson to engineer a 97-yard, implausible touchdown drive to seemingly defeat Chicago in regulation. After a miraculous connection between Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall sent the game to overtime, the Bears defense rinsed and repeated their awfulness by allowing Wilson to navigate 80 yards with ease. The only way the Seahawks could have beaten the Bears on two drives was to successfully move the 177 yards for two touchdowns. They did. And they had very little resistance.

It is easy to reach for the extremes after a defensive collapse so dramatic. It is easy to blame the age of the defenders and question whether a gimp-legged Brian Urlacher is able to contain running quarterbacks the way he once did. (The Bears have been dominated by Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson.) But the age of the defense was decidedly NOT in question with three minutes remaining in the game. Is it possible age takes 57 minutes to emerge? Is it possible Julius Peppers, Charles Tillman and company only have 55 good minutes in their bodies at this stage in their career?

There was a season for the Bears defense before the 177 yards. It was a season of remarkable touchdowns, the globalization of the Peanut Punch, the best corner back play the city has seen in more than a generation, surprising development from the safeties and, well, did I mention touchdowns? They were one of the best defenses in the league and perhaps the best defense of Lovie Smith’s tenure.

What will the season be for this defense after the 177? More than anything else, this is the question that will define the 2012 regular season campaign. Not Mike Tice. Not Jay Cutler. Not the offensive line. The defense will determine how far along the NFL road the Bears travel. And anybody who tells you they know how this group will perform moving forward is selling you something.