Note: All blog podcasts are supposed to be available on iTunes by searching DaBearsBlog. Let me know if it fails.
John McClain is one of the legend of the football writing business and I was honored he spent a few minutes on the phone with me Wednesday evening. On the call he discusses:
Circumstances surrounding the Houston Oilers leaving Houston for Nashville and how an NFL franchise ultimately returned
Similar Texas demeanors of head coaches Gary Kubiak and Lovie Smith
Influence of Wade Phillips on the Texans organization
Why Danieal Manning has thrived in a new city, new system
Houston’s liability in the middle of their run defense
Brian Urlacher’s Hall of Fame credentials (he’s a voter with influence)
How a longtime NFL writer ends up with a side career acting in Hollywood pictures
Please make sure to follow John on Twitter by CLICKING HERE and read check out his latest works at Chron.com.
Note II: There WILL be a picks contest bonus tonight. It should go live late afternoon.
They are both 7-1. They both play terrific defense. And they are both looking for a signature win for this 2012 regular season. One of them will get it Sunday night at Soldier Field. But who will it be?
WHY DO I LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS THIS WEEK?
I always like the Chicago Bears.
I think the Bears are splitting the next two and I think San Francisco, on the road on Monday night, is a tall order.
PERTINENT STATISTICS
We know the defenses are terrific. Let’s compare each team’s big 3.
Brandon Marshall has 59 catches, 797 yards, 7 touchdowns. Andre Johnson has 42 catches, 562 yards, 2 touchdowns.
Arian Foster averages 4 yards a carry. Matt Forte averages 5 yards a carry. But here’s the point: Foster has 85 more carries than Forte. 85! (Foster has 12 catches for 77 yards. Forte has 20 catches for 179.)
Matt Schaub and Jay Cutler are having incredibly similar seasons in terms of completion percentage, yards and touchdowns. But there two major exceptions. Cutler has twice the interceptions (8 to 4) and Cutler has been sacked 18 more times (28 to 10).
STOPPING ARIAN FOSTER = THE GAME
Is Arian Foster a great running back? I don’t think so. But I think he is one of the more versatile backs in the game. (Outside of the tear-jerking press conference that opens the below video, just watch how many ways Kubiak uses Foster in their offense.)
The Texans want to stretch the Bears defensive line with Foster early and allow their own big, fast athletes up front to control the line of scrimmage. This will set up the cutback run game that has hurt the Bears in the past. (Head coach Gary Kubiak learned the zone-blocking system from Shanny in Denver.)
The Texans haven’t been as likely to throw Foster screen or line him up outside to this point but don’t be surprised if that element returns Sunday night. This defense is a test for any coaching staff and the Texans have a good one.
If the Bears hold Foster down – he has scored one touchdown in 12 straight games – they can dominate on the defensive side of the ball. If they dominate on the defensive side of the ball, I think they win.
PARALYSIS BY ANALYSIS? SURE…
Owen Daniels is one of the five best receiving tight ends in the league, with 37-478-5. The Bears have done a solid job handling Jason Witten, Jared Cook and various other TEs but Daniels is Schaub’s go to man in the red zone.
There will be a moment in this game where the Bears require a big punt from Adam Podlesh. That could mean a bomb off the Bears goal line or an angled shot to pin the Texans deep. He’s been sub-mediocre in both areas throughout 2012 and the Bears will struggle in field position battles (this week, next week) without solid efforts in the punting game.
Okay, let’s talk about it. How are the Bears going to handle J.J. Watt? In truth, they probably won’t. They don’t have an individual on their offensive line capable of handling him in a one-on-one match-up and when Kellen Davis gets involved it seems only to compound the problem. For the Bears, the answer is simple: put Sunday night on the running game and don’t allow Watt or Antonio Smith or Brooks Reed or anybody else to tee off on the quarterback. And if the running game CONTINUALLY fails it does not mean the Bears must drop Cutler into a pocket and have him survey the field. Bubble screens to Hester. Roll out dump offs to Davis. Screens, screens, screens. Keep this pass rush off balance. Like this:
THRIVE/SURVIVE!
Thrive: When a team is as committed to the run as Houston, a big tackling linebacker can have a career game and I would not be surprised if Lance Briggs finished Sunday night’s contest with 15-20 tackles.
Survive: Well, I mean, of course it’s J’Marcus Webb. Webb was embarrassed in Green Bay by Clay Matthews and one would imagine that tape will be on a continual loop in J.J. Watt’s living room this week. Even though Carimi has been statistically worse, Webb will be the target. If Webb keeps a clean sheet Sunday night it could provide a necessary turning point for his career.
WHAT DOES THIS GAME REALLY MEAN?
It is very difficult to contextualize individual regular season games. If the Bears dominate the Texans Sunday night there will be a great many analysts and “experts” pointing to the weak schedule Houston has played and asking the Bears to repeat the effort the following Monday night in San Francisco. If the Texans dominate the Bears, those same individuals will point to the weakness in the Bears first-half schedule and claim they have little chance of making a deep playoff run against legitimate clubs with legitimate pass rushes.
The truth is neither would be true. The Bears need to be getting better each week. They need to start rushing the passer more consistently. They need to run the ball more. They need their offensive coordinator to improve at coordinating the offense. They need their quarterback to continue throwing the ball to his own players.
Would it be great to win Sunday night? Of course. Would it be doomsday if the Bears lost? Of course not. But ultimately both results will be forgotten with a solid or horrible performance in San Francisco the following week. That’s the sport in modern times. Nobody remembers the previous week. Hell, folks were saying Cutler and the offense have yet to have a game-winning drive on NFL Network Monday morning…8 days after Cutler and the offense executed a game-winning drive to beat the Carolina Panthers.
It’s the most important game of 2012 for the psyche of the Chicago Bears. Until the next most important game of 2012 for the psyche of the Chicago Bears.
PREDICTION
I love both defenses to control the line of scrimmage, pressure the opposing quarterback and limit scoring. But the Bears defense has some freakish Mojo working and Chicago’s specials are more capable of making a game-defining play. Couple those with the a fan base craving a game of this magnitude and you get…
Four years ago, DaBearsBlog endorsed Barack Obama for the Presidency of the United States. This year we abstained from making an official endorsement for a great many reasons but primarily because we can not endorse any political candidate who stands idly by and watches their constituents gunned down in movie theaters and classrooms without so much as entertaining the idea of a debate on the necessity for personal ownership of automatic weapons.
Tonight, however, we congratulate President Obama on earning his second term with a somewhat resounding victory. Even if you do not like the president’s politics we believe firmly in respecting the office of the presidency and the will of the people.
Do Chicago and other Bears fans proud, Mr. President. Serve this brilliant nation well.
The Bears are 7-1 after eight games – my best case scenario at the start of the season. They are playing their best defense since the vaunted 1985 group, their special teams are coming alive and their offense is beginning, ever so slowly, to find their identity. Before we begin to look at Houston, San Fran and the back eight of the schedule we shall do our best to wrap up the first half.
OFFENSIVE MVP – Brandon Marshall, WR
I spent time last week selling Marshall as a possible MVP of the entire league. He rewarded me by turning in a receiving performance for the Bears ages. On a day in Nashville where the Bears needed minimal offensive output, Marshall caught 9 passes, for 122 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has turned in the eight finest games in Bears receiving history.
Runners Up: none. Jay Cutler has yet to hit his stride and Matt Forte simply hasn’t been given enough reps.
DEFENSIVE MVP – Charles “Peanut” Tillman, CB
I am sparing some of you. You know who you are. The folks who commented below or emailed me things like “Are the Bears going to cut Tillman?” after he struggled mightily in a meaningless preseason game at the Meadowlands. I am sparing you because I have a heart. Tillman hasn’t only been the best defensive player on the Bears. He’s been the best defensive player in the sport and he’s turned his patented ball punch/fumble force into a near-mythological feat.
Even President Obama endorsed Tillman as Defensive POY:
Runners Up: Lance Briggs is playing as well as I’ve ever seen him play and Tim Jennings is complimenting Peanut’s shutdown side with the perfect amount of speed and ballhawk.
COACH OF THE YEAR – Lovie Smith, Head Coach
I’ve given this prize at year’s end to Dave Toub several years in a row but Lovie has been a masterful leader in 2012. He’s developed terrific young talent along the defensive line and not struggled with the challenge/clock issues that have dogged his past on the sideline. He may finally be settling in as a terrific head coach.
Runner Up: Rod Marinelli’s mixing of looks pre and post snap has been a thing of beauty and kept opposing quarterbacks uneasy all year.
FIVE THOUGHTS ON THE FIRST HALF AND BEYOND
Matt Forte is averaging five yards a carry and nine yards a reception. He is also averaging just north of 15 touches a game. That number doesn’t need to go up. He needs to go up DOUBLE DIGITS. Forte is a weapon in the passing game and its on Tice and Cutler to make sure he is utilized. (If he touches the ball less than 25 times against the Texans and Niners, I think the Bears may lose both games.)
If the team has an Achilles heel it is what we saw on that awful Thursday night in Green Bay. The Bears offensive line can run block and they can even pass protect in spots. But if the Bears find themselves down two touchdowns late and HAVE to throw they simply won’t hold up against the game’s better pass rushing lines. Fortunately for the Bears their defense has not allowed many folks to get up multiple scores.
Was the first half of the schedule easier than the second? Of course. But it’s not as if the Bears struggled to win games. (Outside of one poor effort against the Carolina Panthers.) The Bears will be favored for a majority of their second half games but there won’t be any 51-20s to be found. One of the reasons the Bears offense hasn’t played a complete four quarters is they haven’t HAD TO play a complete four quarters. That changes Sunday night against the Houston Texans.
The pass rush should still be considered a concern as they’ve not been great over the last month. It is wonderful to force turnovers but my belief is turnovers can not be required/depended on to play dominant defense. The Bears need their front four to take over games again if they intend to make a deep run in the postseason and beat Rodgers, Eli, Ryan…etc.
I tend to spend more time watching the punter than most folks and Adam Podlesh just isn’t impressive. He’s not a good directional kicker, he has a terrible track record of pinning teams deep and he seems to be at his weakest when the Bears need him to bomb a ball out of their zone. As the defenses improve field position and Podlesh will be in the spotlight more and more.
HOW DO I SEE THE REGULAR SEASON FINISHING?
I think the Bears split these next two games against the Texans and 49ers. I think they’ll also split their four remaining games against the NFC North. That leaves a home tilt with the Seahawks and a road trip to Arizona and I think they’ll win both of those games.
That puts the Bears 5-3 down the stretch. 12-4 on the season. Champions of the NFC North. #2 seed in the NFC with a first round bye.
There were a lot of odd things happening Sunday at LP Field – a beautiful ballpark on the banks of the Cumberland River. Things I’ve never seen or heard at an NFL stadium in my twenty-plus years going to NFL games.
First, let’s set the scene. No one, not a single person in the city of Nashville, will convince me there were more Titans fans than Bears fans at LP. On every beer line, in every men’s room, in the parking lots, on the pedestrian foot bridge…navy blue and orange. Everywhere. Bears fans not only took over the stadium for three hours Sunday. They took over the city for three days. It was as impressive a road display as I’ve ever seen.
Then there was the game. Before the unraveling of a giant American flag cut to the shape of the United States and an expensively thrilling flyover, I turned to Noah and questioned in a polite whisper, “Do you think we’ll hear boos when the Titans come out of the tunnel?”
We did. And they were resounding.
I couldn’t help think what the reaction would be to something so offensive happening at Soldier Field – if another team’s fans overwhelmed the world’s greatest sporting facility and booed the Bears as they emerged from the tunnel. I would stab someone with a harpoon. What would you do?
And, oh, it got worse. Much worse.
Chants of “let’s go Bears” filled every area of the park. Bears players were running up and down the sideline, asking for and receiving noise from fans in the stands. “Bear Down” was being sung at multiple urinals. Every time Packers highlights appeared on the Jumbotron, the boos could have been heard in Memphis. It was a surreal experience for a Bears fan. It must have been a sad one for the 7 Titans fans who didn’t sell their tickets.
I’m not a big believer in “the fourth phase” bullshit. I think it’s a marketing pitch to make fans think they’re more involved than they actually are. But you’d have to Helen Keller’s more blind and deaf cousin to not recognize the impact Bears fans were having on Bears players yesterday. I’ve been to many Bears games but as we gave the offense and defense standing ovations in the fourth quarter, I felt a kinship with them perhaps for the first time. We fans were thanking them for their effort and they were rewarding us with point after point after point.
And Noah and I stayed there. Stayed in our seats until the last Bears player, Chilo Rachal, had left the field. It was a respect thing. Like when you don’t leave the dinner table until your father has finished eating. Because without him there’s be no dinner. Without the Bears we’d have just been twenty thousand oddly coordinated dressers in the Music City. With them we truly were the fourth phase. We were part of it. And it’s a memory that will never fade.
We’ll go rapid fire because we don’t have the energy.
Unbelievable
Performance by Bears fans in Nashville. I have never seen the road team ask the crowd to make noise but the Bears did Sunday and it was amazing.
I thought Mike Tice’s play calling was horrendous early. But I will save criticism for games where it matters.
Matt Forte. Gold.
Jay Cutler’s deep touchdown toss to Brandon Marshall was gold.
Charles Tillman had his best game against the Lions a few weeks ago. He had his most Peanutty game Sunday.
Urlacher had a few wonderful plays Sunday but I was most impressed with him playing solid man-coverage with Chris Johnson down the sideline. Excellent.
Where’s the pass rush?
As good as Gabe Carimi is in the run, that’s how bad he is in the pass game.
Brandon Marshall is the Bears MVP.
Adam Podlesh isn’t very good.
Lance Briggs is.
Earl Bennett was clearly a starter. It showed.
Okay. More to come tomorrow. This was a Bears city today. And it showed.
Jay, Earl and DJ return to the scenes of their collegiate crimes. Four final thoughts:
If the Bears don’t disrupt the rhythm of Matt Hasselbeck, he will dissect them. Hasselbeck has taken what Lovie’s defense gives him for a decade and he’s got the group of receivers in Tennessee who’ll sit underneath the corners and move the chains. They may not score touchdowns but they’ll keep the football.
One of these weeks we’re going to get a 350+ yard performance from Jay Cutler. I thought it was coming against Detroit until he was slammed to the ground. This Tennessee defense is one of the worst in football and the table is set.
If the Bears run the ball 30-35 times, they win. Easily.
I have never quite experienced anything like this weekend in Nashville. It literally seems like the town is entirely populated by Bears fans. Made me very proud.
Bear down.
P.S. I am going to do my best to get a postgame wrap-up of some kind up here either tonight or tomorrow morning. But if I don’t, forgive me. I’m Honky-Tonkin’. Make sure you follow me on Twitter – @DaBearsBlog – for my instantaneous updates from inside LP Field and beyond.
You know the rules. If you don’t know the rules you are probably not in the contest and thus don’t NEED TO KNOW the rules.
(Home Team in CAPS)
Denver -4 CINCINNATI
GREEN BAY -10 Arizona
Miami -2 INDIANAPOLIS
Baltimore -3.5 CLEVELAND
HOUSTON -10 Buffalo
WASHINGTON -3 Carolina
Detroit -3 JACKSONVILLE
Chicago -3.5 TENNESSEE
SEATTLE -5 Minnesota
OAKLAND -1.5 Tampa Bay
NEW YORK GIANTS -3 Pittsburgh
ATLANTA -4 Dallas
Sélection du blogpère
Call me crazy but I think it’s over for Minnesota and now they go to the most difficult place to play in the NFL. I’m taking Pete Carroll and the Seahawks to stop Adrian Peterson and harass Christian Ponder into an afternoon of mistakes. I’m laying the 5 and reemerging in this contest (kinda).
Chris Johnson’s return to being Chris Johnson over the last five weeks
The struggling Titans defense and maligned coordinator Jerry Gray
The reaction Cutler & the Vandy alum should expect from a combination of Vandy and UT fans
Recommendations on where to get the best country grub in the great city of Nashville
I’m off to Nashville! For those Bears fans looking to get together, the plan is to meet post-game Sunday at watch Giants v. Steelers at Nashville’s best Steelers bar, Piranhas.For those looking to buy Noah and I drinks, section 310, row C.
