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Reviewing Bears’ Defensive Standouts From Thursday Night

| November 14th, 2023

Yesterday I finally got access to the Bears’ All-22 from Thursday Night — let’s review some defensive highlights.

Andrew Billings is the beating heart of the Bears’ run defense

First off, Andrew Billings is so much fun to watch work. I’m a sucker for a big dude in the trenches making plays, and that’s exactly what #97 has been for Chicago all season long.

https://twitter.com/robertkschmitz/status/1724198523191673305

He’s a force to be reckoned with, even when double-teamed at the point of attack — here, on 3rd & 1, he simply refuses to be moved. I’m happy to see him extended.

Bryce Young and the turf became well-acquainted throughout the game

The Panthers’ rookie signal-caller spent the majority of Thursday Night on his back — sometimes that was the fault of Carolina’s simple route concepts/poor OL play, but sometimes you saw nice moments from the Bears’ defensive line that seemed to get after him in a hurry.

Justin Jones created more pressures than I remembered on re-watch, Gervon Dexter had his moments, but Montez Sweat was all over Bryce Young from jump street and made a physical impact on every play he could.

First, here he is chasing Young down on a bootleg…

And later, a Bears blitz got Montez Sweat free off the edge and Sweat made Young pay the price as he got rid of the ball.

It was a nice, physical game for Sweat. He rushed the passer better than any other Bears’ defensive lineman and often provided the only pressure Chicago could muster on some plays — even if that pressure wasn’t more than just moving Bryce Young off his spot.

Sweat does seem to have an edge to him he wasn’t playing with in Carolina, so I can’t help but wonder if his role as a leader on this defense may be invigorating him. Either way, Carolina certainly felt his presence throughout the game.

The Bears’ young DBs popped

Kyler Gordon had far & away his best game as a Bear, and if anything I’m disappointed all I have is one highlight to show from his performance.

He was a demon in run defense and a problem Carolina couldn’t solve in both man and zone coverages. He hunted short throws underneath and matched feet with receivers both down the field and over the middle — considering that Gordon was one of the worst CBs in the NFL last year, it’s been inspiring to see the strides he’s made as he’s learned to channel his agility while also growing as man-cover defender.

He started the year hot with a nice game against Green Bay too, so here’s hoping games like this are signs of future play to come.

It wouldn’t be one of my reviews without my being unnecessarily positive on Tyrique Stevenson, and you’d better believe I’m not going to stop now!

Stevenson and Johnson both took far too many penalties throughout Thursday Night’s game, but my expectations for rookie DBs are so low that I don’t mind seeing them from #29 — he’s getting better every game at managing his own physicality with WRs, and it’s leading to more and more reps that look like the one listed below.

Of course, I’d still love to see Stevenson given more chances to press his WR… but that’s a conversation for another day.

https://twitter.com/robertkschmitz/status/1724192243714498731

Gervon Dexter seems to be settling in

The recent Bears’ 2nd rounder struggled with basic movement as recently as the preseason, but seems to be settling in nicely at the halfway point of the season — the cross-chop he’s been working on since August is starting to show fruit, though the fruit isn’t ripe yet. Still, it’s nice to see that he’s improving.

Dexter is a project, but the juice feels worth the squeeze when you remember how naturally strong he is. Reps like the one below (where he simply throws his man aside) provide a light at the end of Dexter’s developmental tunnel — if he can learn to strike more efficiently and access that kind of power-base more often, he could be dangerous as both a 1-Tech & 3-Tech defensive lineman.

He still has plenty of technical issues to clean up, but he should be able to hone in on those issues as he gets more playing time — he played 29 snaps on Thursday, more than Andrew Billings, and if that’s any indication of how the coaches will continue to deploy him I imagine he’ll have plenty of time to work on his problem areas.

https://twitter.com/robertkschmitz/status/1724211641242259951

Note: Zacch Pickens also had quite a good game, though he only played 12 snaps to Gervon’s 29. I’ll try to get a clip or two up of his handiwork later.

Your Turn: What stood out to you in Thursday’s defensive effort?

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187 Comments

Bears Currently Winning Race For First Overall Pick

| November 13th, 2023

With the Arizona Cardinals looking more than functional in a big win over Atlanta, your Chicago Bears are once again in possession of the #1 overall pick.

In a season that’s seen nearly everything go wrong for Chicago, a positive like the Carolina Panthers’ 2023 implosion is not one to be taken for granted. Without Ryan Poles’ move to pick DJ Moore, the potential 2024 #1 overall pick, and even more draft assets from the Panthers’ pockets, Bears fans would be left discussing whether or not a win like last Thursday’s had sabotaged their future — instead, they can bask in the glory of a pair of Top 5 draft picks and a very reasonable chance at a franchise-changing Top 2 pick in 2024 (more on that another day).

No win is guaranteed in the NFL, but if we take a look at the Panthers’ upcoming schedule they’ve got quite a few doozies ahead.

Specifically…

  • Playing a great defense like Dallas is never easy for a young QB, plus Dak and the Cowboys’ offense always seem to shine against poor opponents
  • The Panthers’ division rivals (Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans) have each lost winnable games recently & should be motivated to ‘get right’ against Carolina
    • Also, with the Bucs currently sitting at 4-5 after yesterday’s win, there’s a very reasonable chance that the Buccaneers will carry playoff hopes into their Week 18 contest
  • Tennessee & Jacksonville each host the Panthers, only adding to those games’ difficulty
  • And then there’s the Packers, but with Carolina facing Green Bay so late it’s worth wondering whether the Packers will finally see their injured defenders (Jaire Alexander, Quay Walker) return & bolster a struggling unit. Those additions may tip the balance.

I couldn’t be more biased — I want the Bears to pick at #1 again, after all — but there’s a very reasonable chance the Panthers win 1 game or less going forward. If that’s all they manage to win, they currently hold Strength of Schedule tiebreakers over the Giants, Cardinals, and Patriots and would ultimately deliver the first pick in the 2024 draft to Chicago. An exciting thought.

Their trip to Tennessee should be a pivot game — if Will Levis and DeAndre Hopkins can overcome the post-bye Panthers, Carolina won’t have much runway left on the schedule. But we’ll have to wait and see.

Your Turn: What, if anything, has you upbeat about the Bears right now?

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265 Comments

Chicago Bears Dominated Their Foe, Secure Future On Thursday Night

| November 10th, 2023

Coming out of halftime, Bears’ Head Coach Matt Eberflus promised the nation that he ‘had tricks up his sleeve’ in the 2nd half of Chicago’s game against the Carolina Panthers. He may not have had much more in mind than a battering D’Onta Foreman touchdown run and a suffocating defensive gameplan, but he reached into his sleeve and pulled out a gritty, ugly win on Thursday Night Football all the same.

Sometimes we don’t ask how the win happened, we simply ask how many wins the team can provide. Chicago’s latest win keeps their own playoff hopes alive (even if only technically) while pushing Carolina down a path that the Panthers may not recover from this season — with Chicago holding onto Carolina’s 2024 1st round draft selection, that’s great news for the Bears indeed.

ESPN Analytics list the Bears as having a 42% chance at the 2024 NFL draft’s #1 overall pick, with even better odds that they land a top 2 pick rather than exclusively #1. That’s great news for Chicago regardless of whether you want to see the Bears reset at Quarterback or not — as we saw in last year’s DJ Moore trade, high picks are valuable commodities that create extraordinary opportunities for the teams that possess them.

Thursday’s contest was anything but a pretty game, and chances are the results didn’t change your opinion of Matt Eberflus one way or another. If you didn’t like him before, his conservative offensive game-plan, goofy halftime quote, and bizarre decision to kick the extra point with the score at 10-15 (rather than going for 2 and playing for a 7-point lead) likely didn’t sway you now. But if the offensive line’s recent chutzpah and the defense’s clear improvement have gotten you thinking about what Flus’ vision could look like given another offseason, I wouldn’t blame you for that either.

Next week’s Detroit game looms large for Matt Eberflus — if he wants to make a statement, he’ll need to make it in his trip to Motown. But between then and now, enjoy 11 days of that winning feeling.

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

Read More …

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Week 10 Game Preview: Can a Two-Win Team Face a Must-Win Game? Oh Yea, Baby!

| November 9th, 2023

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.

A Must Win?

Heading into tonight’s game, the draft order is as follows: (1) Cardinals, (2) Panthers -> Bears, (3) Bears, (4) Giants, (5) Patriots. This is the complete list of teams with two wins or less and, I believe, they are the only five teams currently competing for the top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The Cardinals are going to get Kyler Murray back, likely this Sunday, and one would expect his presence to help them win a few more games. The Patriots are not a good football team, but does anyone think Bill Belichick won’t squeeze out a few victories over the second half of the season? And, honestly, the Bears showed good fight against New Orleans and will likely be better on both sides of the ball moving forward. 5-6 wins for them is not out of the question.

No, if the Bears want the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, they need it to come from the Carolina Panthers, and that means the Panthers need to finish with a worse record than the house-on-fire New York Giants. The Giants go to Dallas this week as 16-point underdogs, with Tommy Devito as their starting quarterback. If Devito continues to struggle, they’ll turn to #BarkleyTime. Even with their easy schedule on the horizon (Commanders, Patriots, Packers, Rams, etc.) there is a scenario wherein the Giants don’t win another game in 2023.

The clearest path to the top pick for the Bears is via the Panthers. And the Bears need to bury the Panthers tonight at Soldier Field to keep that path unfettered.

Dick Butkus Video of the Week

Quick Hit Movie Reviews

Killers of the Flower Moon is unlike anything Martin Scorsese has ever done, while also fitting perfectly into his remarkable canon. To see an 80-year-old takes these kinds of aesthetic leaps is a testament to the man’s genius. The film of the year, and the most emotionally and intellectually paralyzing final 20-minute passage I can remember.

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Bears Offensive Issues Run Deep. Maybe Too Deep.

| November 8th, 2023

Last night I dove deep into the Bears’ tape from Sunday’s game in New Orleans — throughout the stream I talked through:

  • What fueled the good parts of the Bears’ Sunday offense?
  • Why can’t Chicago pass the ball in the 4th quarter?
  • Who stood out on the Bears’ offensive line? Who was left lacking?
  • Where are the Bears’ coaches making life harder on their players? How can they fix those issues?
  • What did Jack Sanborn do to make so many plays in relief of Tremaine Edmunds?
  • Which DBs stood out positively? Did any stand out negatively?
  • And much, much more

Check it out and let me know what you think!

Your Turn: What, if anything, are you hoping to see change on Thursday from what you’ve seen over the last few weeks?

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Checking the Tape: Bears Offense in the Superdome

| November 7th, 2023

It’s a short week for us fans as the Bears get set to play what may just be the biggest remaining game on their schedule — whether you’re a fan cheering for Bears draft position or simply a fan cheering for the Bears, Chicago has a chance to all but lock in a Top 2 Pick in the 2024 NFL Draft with a win over a bad Carolina Panthers team that plays nothing but tough teams (and Green Bay) down the stretch.

But we’ll get to Thursday soon — first, let’s take a look back at what the tape said about Sunday’s offensive showing. My observations (along with associated cut-ups) are listed below:

Sections today are:

  • Discussion of each of the 5 major Offensive Linemen
  • Talking through some of the ‘gross’ within the Bears’ offense
  • Where Bagent won, where Bagent lost, what I’d like to see from Bagent on Thursday
  • A quick Cole Kmet mention

Teven Jenkins played phenomenally

Nobody in a Bears uniform plays with the natural nastiness that Teven Jenkins does, especially when run-blocking. #76 finished run after run against New Orleans and looked like a down-in and down-out leader as he did.

He had a great day in pass protection as well. If he can stay healthy for the rest of the year, I’d hope Ryan Poles explores an offseason extension.

Here’s another look at Teven mauling open a run lane later in the game…

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Disappointed, But Not Surprised

| November 6th, 2023

I’ve been trying to come up with something passion-fueled to say this morning, but honestly yesterday’s Bears game was one of the most ho-hum performances I’ve ever seen.

The Bears’ offense surprised early and moved the ball with ease, but ultimately their UDFA Rookie QB struggled with turnovers late and became yet another Bears QB that can’t seem to score points in the 4th quarter.

The Bears’ defense held the Saints’ offense to a hair over 300 yards on the day (and a very solid 4.9 yards per play), but when you take a look at Derek Carr’s passing chart it becomes clear that Chicago didn’t challenge the Saints to do anything dangerous and the Saints offense willfully obliged. For the fourth time in the Eberflus era, this resulted in zero sacks and zero takeaways on what must’ve felt like an easy day for New Orleans.

This game played out so similarly to the rest of the Matt Eberflus era that I don’t have it in me to get mad about results like this anymore. You could say it was ‘Disappointing, but not Surprising’ and I’d agree with you. Chicago’s defensive head coach needed his offense to be the leaders today, and ultimately that was too tall an ask for a Rookie UDFA QB playing against DVOA’s 8th toughest defense in football. As usual, that added up to a loss.

Oh well. Onwards to Thursday!

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

The Good:

  • Cole Kmet, Take A Bow. Kmet has been a lightning rod for criticism ever since Matt Nagy picked him in the 2nd round of the 2020 NFL Draft, but against New Orleans the 24-year-old tight end stepped up in a huge way. He capped off the Bears’ first drive with the most physical catch of his life (turning a potentially dangerous throw into a touchdown in the process), added another score just two drives later on a perfect block/release route, and stacked big first downs for his quarterback throughout the rest of the game.
    • Most Fantasy Football experts have identified a Tight End’s ‘breakout age’ to be between 25 & 26 — could Cole Kmet’s best days be ahead of him? Days like Sunday make you believe he just might have a ‘next step’ in him.
  • Who doesn’t love good offensive line play? Darnell Wright played another stout game on the right side, Teven Jenkins buried multiple defenders in the run game, and Braxton Jones slotted in at Left Tackle as if he hadn’t missed any time at all… until his coaches pulled him and set him & Larry Borom on another one of the OL Rotations we’ve become accustomed to in Chicago. Still, the young core of the offensive line controlled the line of scrimmage for the majority of the game — nothing could be more important for the Bears’ future than seeing that become consistent.
    • NFL Next Gen Stats has Tyson Bagent’s Time To Throw clocked at 3.29 seconds, yet the young QB only took 2 sacks on 30 dropbacks — I’d call that a credit to Chicago’s offensive line, especially since New Orleans’ EDGE Rushers are a difficult pair to keep at bay.
  • The Defense tackled well, but I’m waiting for the All-22 to assign credit. Everyone flew around throughout the day — Jack Sanborn, TJ Edwards, Montez Sweat, and all the DBs made tackles chasing down RBs and cutting down underneath WRs. Ultimately the performance wasn’t enough to keep New Orleans at bay, but the broadcast copy didn’t seem to point the finger at any particular defensive player moreso than the scheme itself. The players played the scheme admirably.

The Bad

  • Tyson Bagent, rookie or not, was too chaotic down the stretch. Tyson Bagent had a fabulous first half — he distributed the football, he took shots past the line of scrimmage, he targeted NFL windows, and he navigated pockets with poise. Unfortunately, as the Saints defense shifted away from Zone coverage and mixed in more Man coverage looks, windows got tighter for Bagent as the clock ticked down and it seems nerves got the better of the young signal caller. Suffice to say, no QB is going to succeed when they turn the ball over three times in the 4th quarter.
    • A big-picture note on Bagent: Too many on the internet laid unreasonable expectations on a UDFA rookie and are now acting disappointed that he looks like a rookie QB. I’m not a fan of that. Tyson Bagent only started repping the Bears’ in-season offense 6 weeks ago (he was surely running scout team until he was named the backup in Week 5), so he’s learning what he can & can’t do against NFL starting defenses on the job. If anything, I’m surprised a performance like this didn’t happen sooner.
    • In the bigger picture, Bagent showed during the first half that he can operate an NFL offense efficiently when his run game is working for him and the score is close. That is much more than anyone should’ve expected from a UDFA Rookie QB, especially given that his background compares better to 5th round pick Clayton Tune and UDFA Veteran Backup Brett Rypien than other starters around the league. The moment he started getting compared to Justin Fields, Brock Purdy, and other starters was the moment he’d already vastly exceeded expectations — don’t let four nasty turnovers in his 2nd road start seal your opinion of him.
  • I hate this staff’s willingness to rotate OL. I’ve never seen an organization so willing to create chaos on the offensive line for the sake of ‘getting a guy some work’ — the only traditional times we see offensive lines change mid-game is when players get hurt, but this Bears org willingly creates that change when they rotate in offensive linemen coming off of injuries. I don’t want to be blind to an injured player’s stamina/conditioning, but is it really so surprising that Tyson Bagent’s strip sack came with Larry Borom in the game? I can’t (and won’t) pretend to understand how the rotation helps.
  • The defensive game plan will never stop frustrating me. Eddie Jackson ‘said that on film, [the Bears] saw a Saints team that threw it downfield. They expected more chances at INTs’. I don’t know why they expected that after a week where Justin Herbert checked the ball down to extreme success. The Bears’ defensive willingness to call Cover 2/Tampa 2 with a 4-down rush opens them up to major gashes underneath when they don’t tackle. It also opens up the middle of the field when their linebackers overreact to Play Action handoffs. Want to guess where New Orleans made their hay?

The Ugly

  • ‘Playing the Vets’ defeats the purpose of the season. Gervon Dexter & Zacch Pickens got less than 15 snaps each despite Dexter clearly making strides. Tyrique Stevenson got benched as the game got close despite Carr rarely testing the outside boundary. Matt Eberflus clearly smelled a chance to win his 6th game in his Bears tenure and elected to play experienced players over the rookies that stand to be part of this organization for longer than he does, and I see that as a glaring lack of understanding.
    • I mean no disrespect to Jaylon Jones in saying this — the former UDFA has played well when given chances throughout the 2023 season, and you truly can never have too many good DBs. But I didn’t see Tyrique do anything bench-worthy before Jaylon got sent in the game. To me, this felt like a coach under pressure trying to ‘control what he can control’ — I’m not a fan. Do what’s best for the organization and get rewarded by the rest of the league.
  • The Bears’ inability to close out games is a disease. The Quarterback has changed, the Wide Receivers have changed, the Offensive Line has largely changed, but one truth still remains — once the 4th quarter starts, the Bears’ offense can’t pass the ball. The defense gave them four chances to simply tie the game, and all four ended in either a turnover or a 3-and-out. Eventually, the coaching staff has to answer for results this consistent.

Postgame Podcast:

Nick and I recorded a podcast where we talked through the ups, the downs, the ins, and the outs of Chicago’s latest loss here:

Your Turn: How do you feel about yesterday’s game?

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