For the thousands in attendance, and the millions watching at home…

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago Bears.

What Do We Make of Week One?

Not much.

No one has ever seen a Luke Getsy-run offense.

No one has ever seen a Matt Eberflus program in action.

No one has ever seen Trey Lance play starting quarterback in the NFL.

No one actually knows what the football game being played Sunday at Soldier Field will look like. But here’s what we do know about these two teams: one (the road team) almost made the Super Bowl last season and the other (the home team) didn’t come close. And that seems to be the basis for the seven-point spread on the game.

But what a dramatic matchup for the opener. And the entirety of the football world, intelligently or not, will see the contest as Lance vs. Justin Fields.

Lance spent the entire 2021 season on the bench, after a few early cameos. The Niners are a popular preseason pick to make the Super Bowl but that will be wholly dependent on his performance. (And the team has a built-in insurance policy with the re-signing of Jimmy Garoppolo.) There are folks inside the building in San Francisco that aren’t sold on the young signal caller. Might that change after Sunday?

Fields had a terrible rookie season, primarily due to mismanagement from the whole of the Bears’ football operation. His mechanics have been altered. His confidence has grown. And his performance in the third preseason game was a line of optimism cocaine for a city of football addicts. The Nagy narrative has spared Fields any high-profile criticism for his rookie performance. Starting Sunday, the performances land solely on his (hopefully broad) shoulders.

Tweet of the Week (Kinda)

Throwback to Deebo Samuel saving the #49ers season last year against the Bears

: @NFL pic.twitter.com/BKlJOOY9mc

— OurSF49ers (@OurSf49ers) September 3, 2022

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For Chicago Bears fans in their 30s, or early 40s, it might be hard not to compare Sunday’s quarterback showdown at Soldier Field with a similar contest 22 years ago. This one will hopefully end far better for the Bears in both the short and long term.

The San Francisco 49ers are led by a raw, second-year quarterback with tantalizing physical tools. They face a Bears team with a second-year quarterback who struggled as a rookie but was more highly thought of as a complete player. On Sept. 3, 2000, the Minnesota Vikings – a playoff team the year previous – started Daunte Culpepper, a raw, second-year quarterback with tantalizing physical tools. He faced Cade McNown, a second-year quarterback who struggled as a rookie but was more highly thought of as a complete player.

[EDITOR’S NOTE: I watched this game as a college student at the ESPN Zone in Times Square. Most bars in NYC still didn’t have league-wide accessibility.]

That game ended up being perhaps McCown’s best as a professional. He completed 27 of 41 passes for 290 yards and two touchdowns. He didn’t throw an interception. He also ran for 87 yards on 10 attempts, adding another touchdown. The Bears managed 425 yards and 27 points, and the Gary Crowton offense looked like the future of the league.

But the Bears lost the game.

Culpepper struggled as a passer, completing just 13 of 23 passes for 190 yards and an interception. He didn’t throw a touchdown pass but ran for three scores and 73 yards. A 20-9 Bears lead disappeared in the second half but both teams exited Week One feeling good about their young passers. Ultimately, neither proved a long-term answer. McCown was benched eight weeks later and exited the NFL abruptly. Culpepper had a far more substantial career, but the Vikings continually fell short of lofty expectations.

What can we learn? Simply that one game does not make a season and certainly won’t define a career. But the quarterbacks will always be connected.

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This is one of the more interesting seasons in recent memory, with the summer injecting unexpected optimism into the whole affair. So, what do I expect from the 2022 Chicago Bears?

Prediction #1. The Bears will beat their over/under number of six.

On the 2022 schedule: Giants, Jets, Texans, Commanders, Lions (twice), Falcons. Every one of those games is winnable and none of them will feature a point spread outside the 3-point margin. If Eberflus has the defense playing at a top-15 level, and he should, all of those teams are going to struggle to score on the Bears.

This is not to say the Bears will win double-digit games. But 7-10? 8-9? Even 9-8? All three seem perfectly feasible. And a side note to the prediction: this will be an inherently fun team to watch.

Prediction #2. The “starting five” will not be the “final five” along the offensive line.

Someone will flop. Braxton Jones at left tackle? Teven Jenkins at right guard? Larry Borom at right tackle? It is highly unlikely all three will find success and the Bears will have solved their offensive line woes in one off-season. Add in the waiver claim for Alex Leatherwood, with the cost associated, and it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where Chris Morgan and Luke Getsy work him into the starting lineup by mid-season.

Prediction #3. The Bears will struggle to rush the passer.

The last time Robert Quinn mounted back-to-back double-digit sack seasons was 2013-14. That is eight years ago. Quinn is capable of being an elite pass rusher (see: 2021), but his career has been defined by inconsistency rather than dominance. He’ll need help on the outside and help is not on this roster unless Trevis Gipson takes a massive leap in his third season. What is more likely is the Bears are debating between pass rusher and wide receiver in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.

Prediction #4. Cole Kmet will score five or more touchdowns.

Rookie season: 28-243-2

Sophomore season: 60-612-0

Third season: 78-1,008-6

Kmet’s lack of touchdown production in his second year had nothing to do with him. It was entirely about the previously regime’s Jimmy Graham obsession. Graham wasn’t just playing a majority of red zone snaps but was also in Graham-specific packages that included fade routes thrown by an inaccurate quarterback to an old tight end.

With attention being paid weekly to Darnell Mooney, Kmet should be the beneficiary of mismatches over the middle and profit greatly from a red zone scheme that will work to get him open for easy scores.

Prediction #5. Justin Fields will have a breakout season.

I’m not going to get into the numbers game because the numbers are not important. A singular conclusion will be reached by the end of the 2022 campaign: Fields is the franchise quarterback the Bears have been desperate to find.

With Labor Day comes

hope for the football season.

Hope is dangerous.

Crack open a beer.

Grill up a few frankfurters.

Summer is waning.

We frolic in Fields

of quarterbacking promise.

Can he be the 1?

Each year, for Labor Day weekend, I write about something wildly off-topic. That usually means bars or movies and since my brain is concentrated on the latter, with graduate school mere days away, that’s where the road shall take us. This post is a football palate cleanser, a nice distraction before five straight months of non-stop Chicago Bears.

To prepare my brain for a return to scholarly life, I watched 67 films this summer. Those films fell into three categories: movie musicals pre-1960, English language classics by acclaimed directors and foreign language classics. Some I had previously seen two decades ago. Some I had seen pieces of here and there as an undergrad. I also read 11 books on various film-related subjects. I won’t waste space by listing everything. Instead, you can see the entire list of films and books by CLICKING HERE. (There are stars next to certain films. They are not a value rating. Ignore them.)

Of the books, I can’t recommend Anna McCarthy’s Citizen Machine highly enough. The book examines how the concept of liberalism evolved from notions of solidarity and “the people” to a concentrated individualism in post-Cold War America, illuminating how various entities (corporations, labor, etc.) used television to sell that message. It is a brilliant work.

For the films, I’ll be listing them in no particular order, and providing a brief comment or video clip that I hope piques your interest.  Here they are. (If you’re interested in seeing any of these films, they are all available either to rent or stream. You can check them all at JustWatch.com.)

High and Low (Director: Akira Kurosawa)

A stunning piece of storytelling, Kurosawa’s masterpiece is part kidnapping melodrama and part police procedural. High and Low is, in some ways, a combination of Rashomon‘s narrative flexibility and Seven Samurai‘s big Hollywood sensibility. It is one of my favorite movies ever made.

Bande à part (Director: Jean-Luc Godard)

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Everyone loves the Buffalo Bills. Everyone. And quite frankly, that scares me. The NFL has become so unpredictable that it’s hard to imagine an overwhelming favorite making it all the way to the final Sunday and winning an expected title. But in order to get the Bills out of the Super Bowl, I need to find another team.

The Jets aren’t ready.

The Patriots don’t have the firepower.

The Dolphins worry me but it’s a big ask for a first-year coach.

The AFC South stinks.

The Bengals went to the Super Bowl last year. So why are the Ravens favored to win the division? (Vegas always knows something. Also, is “Vegas” even a thing anymore? Why aren’t the lines set in NJ or NYC?)

The whole AFC West is explosive, but it just feels like they’re going to beat the hell out of each other. That means the top seed is unlikely to come from the left coast and the top seed feels essential for those teams hoping to avoid the playoffs going through Buffalo.

The Buffalo Bills don’t have a major flaw on their roster, assuming Tre White eventually returns healthy, and in Josh Allen, they have the best player in the sport. If Von Miller can provide the prowess on the edge they’ll need in December and January, they will coast to an easy AFC East title and find themselves in Glendale playing for it all.

So, who wins the NFC?

I have no idea.

Am I taking the Packers again? No. Not with those receivers and not with the quarterback’s postseason record. (He’s one of the best regular season quarterbacks of all time but he’s a mediocrity in the tournament.)

I don’t trust Stafford’s health. I don’t trust Brady’s commitment. I don’t think Trey Lance is going to take a team to the title game in his first year as a starter. (And the Jimmy G re-signing strikes me as quite odd.) Who the hell else is there? Philly? Dallas? New Orleans? Nope. Nope. Nope.

I have zero conviction. And when you have no conviction, you just assume Tom Brady will do something ridiculous and overcome whatever he needs to overcome.

Super Bowl 57 Final Score

Buffalo Bills 30, Tampa Bay Bucs 23

While the most likely scenario is the 2022 Chicago Bears being out of contention before December, last Saturday’s preseason game was a reminder that the outcome of this campaign is far from certain.

There are plenty of question marks on the roster. Will Larry Borom, Teven Jenkins or Kindle Vildor end up being quality players? Flip a coin. Will Justin Jones and Nicholas Morrow stay healthy? Who knows? But there is a world in which a lot of these roster decisions go right, and fans caught a glimpse of that world on Saturday night. The talent on this roster may be better than it has been given credit for, especially considering some think it’s the worst in the league.

But there are two positions on every team that can drastically improve the outcome of any season: head coach and quarterback. That’s where fan focus should rest.

Eberflus.

It has been said over and over that Flus had top-10 defenses with worse talent than he has now. Of course, Eberflus isn’t the defensive coordinator (still a question mark) but his scheme is relatively easy to learn and the principles that made him successful in Indianapolis are being taught in Chicago.

What we’ve seen from the preseason is a Bears team that plays fast, but in control. Control is everything. They’re disciplined and assignment sure. Gone are the days of overcomplicated systems. The Bears will be simple, and they will play harder than their opponent.

Fields.

Enough has been written about his struggles as a rookie.

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From the final whistle of the last preseason game to kickoff of the opener is a weirdly dead time in the NFL. Teams are full week one install and shrouded in secrecy. Nothing gets out of any building. DBB season previews, predictions, etc. will all be posted next week. This week, we slowly waltz into Labor Day weekend and the de facto end of the summer. Today, some links.

• Rosters will be cut down to 53 players by this afternoon and Courtney Cronin has her predictions here. There is very little drama at Halas Hall, as any young player with potential is going to be kept around, i.e., Jack Sanborn. The cut who felt like the “bubble boy” was Dazz Newsome and the Bears made that decision a week ago.
• If you’re not finished digesting the final preseason game, Kevin Fishbain’s game story for The Athletic was the best out there. (Outside of my own, of course.)
• I pride myself on knowing the names of local newspapers for every market in the country. But I had no idea there was such a thing as The Canton Repository. Here is a nice story from that publication on their hometown boy, Dominique Robinson, a player that has had a terrific summer for the Bears and will be part of their future plans. (His injury suffered Saturday could have an impact on the structure of that future.)
• If the Jets were trying to trade Denzel Mims, showcasing him Sunday against the Giants was a smart move. His 7-102-1 performance captured some attention and Mims is saying all the right things about his future. This is a player the Chicago Bears should certainly be considering, but only at an extremely low cost.
• ACTUAL BEAR NEWS: Sometimes clickbait demands to be clicked. “Vermont Woman Has Dog’s ‘Ninja Moves’ to Thank for Helping Save Her from Bear Attack” is one of those stories.
• Josh Schrock of NBC Sports discusses the emergence of Elijah Hicks this summer. From the piece: “I really like his movement skills,” head coach Matt Eberflus said. “Elijah’s really doing a good job. You’re focused on that in the open field and also in man-to-man coverage. Can he mirror and stay with guys and then also be stout? Because it’s a physical game when you’re playing man-to-man, and he can do that. Can he anchor and stay attached to the tight ends or backs or whoever he’s covering? But yeah, I’ve been impressed.”

And a special shoutout to Brandon Thorn for isolating some of Teven Jenkins’ work on Saturday night.

A couple really nice reps from Jenkins
– Stab, climb & cut-off of JOK at the 2nd level
– Snatch & finish pic.twitter.com/BBD2k6jCeL

— Brandon Thorn (@BrandonThornNFL) August 28, 2022

The Bears played terrific defense in each of their three preseason games, doing so mostly without the involvement of their two best defensive players, Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn. The veterans (Morrow, Jones, Muhammad, etc.) contributed consistently and the kids (Brisker, Gordon) were the summer’s shining light. If this group can find enough pass rush, still a significant if, they will be a unit easily slotted into the top half of the sport.

The Bears also looked solid on specials in their preseason games and on the Lake Forest practice field. Cairo Santos is one of the most reliable kickers in the league. Trenton Gill is looking like a seventh-round steal, especially considering that the more ballyhooed punter in the draft, Matt Araiza, has now been accused of participation in a gang rape and is out of the sport. And the team has what you want when it comes to return men, the steadiness of a Dante Pettis and the explosiveness of a Velus Jones Jr. (Coverage units are difficult to evaluate during the summer because they are formed by the bottom third of the roster.)

When it came to the competitiveness of the 2022 Bears, it was always going to come down to the offense. Would the quarterback take the next step? Could the young line hold up? Do they have enough playmakers on the outside? How long would it take this group to grasp Luke Getsy’s system – a system that has historically struggled in year one? Questions, questions, questions, questions. But did the summer provide any answers?

Yes, I think one could argue it did.

The quarterback had his moment Saturday night. And it was a moment many inside the building were desperate to see. He was poised in the pocket, processed the field well, and was decisive and accurate with his throws. It was still a practice game, and it’ll be forgotten by the middle of the week, but it has to instill a tremendous amount of confidence in Justin Fields as he embarks upon the journey of his sophomore season.

The young offensive line has looked just fine and should improve when Lucas Patrick makes his expected return in September. This group is going to have its struggles. Braxton Jones is a rookie. Teven Jenkins is playing his first season at guard. Larry Borom probably shouldn’t be a starting tackle, but the team’s future will be better served getting him on-field experience this year. There will be drives that frustrate fans and drives that enthrall fans. That’s the story with young starters in the NFL. But this unit has certainly not been the liability this summer many predicted.

As for playmakers, of course the Bears don’t have enough. Not even close. Look at the talent outside for contenders like the Bucs, Rams, Bengals, Bills and the entirety of the AFC West. “Why can’t the Bears contend for a title this year?” is often asked by the most optimistic of fans on social media. (They must know, but they ask anyway.) This is the answer. But a few things should be noted here. First, a Larry Mayer tweet:

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If you’ve never been part of a dress rehearsal, they are crazy exciting. (And somewhat terrifying.) Until that performance you really don’t know what type of play you have.

Fields’ first half would have had us whispering in the wings, “I think we got something real here.”

— DaBearsBlog (@dabearsblog) August 28, 2022

It’s hard to get excited for a “dress rehearsal” when the opponent announces none of their stars will play and several of your own stars won’t play either. They don’t have dress rehearsals for a production of Hamlet and let the Claudius and Gertrude sit them out. Nevertheless, we watch.

Quarter One.

• Dante Pettis returns the first punt. He’s been reliable in that job this summer and he seems to have a solid spot on the roster.
• Why does David Montgomery need preseason reps? We know how limited the shelf life of running backs is in the league. Why would you subject one to a single hit they don’t need to take?
• Second drive for the offense provided a sense of how Getsy wants to approach the field. This is not an offense that will exist between the tackles. They want to use every inch, from sideline to sideline.
• Justin Fields taking cheap shots in the preseason. That seems valuable.
  • Fields’ touchdown strike to Ryan Griffin was on a rope. The kid has a remarkable arm.
  • He also played an extremely composed quarter. He sat in the pocket. He surveyed the field. He delivered the football accurately.
• Hard to really gauge what this defense will look like without seeing Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith out there. But they are checking all the boxes when it comes to intensity.

Quarter Two.

• David Montgomery looks quicker, but there was no reason for him to STILL be carrying the football in the second quarter.
• Fields to Pettis for the second touchdown. Another strike, after Fields looked all other options.
• Never overreact to preseason action but Jaquan Brisker has some superstar potential. He’s as good in run support, pursuing the player, as he is in coverage, pursuing the football.
• Fields throws a touchdown pass to a wide-open Cole Kmet. But the play was made by Fields’ patience. He had the checkdown early. But he didn’t take it. He allowed the play to breath. It did. Touchdown.
• Really strong performance all around from Justin Jones.
• Same for Kindle Vildor, who looks like he’ll have a significant role in the defense.

There is only one story of this half, and subsequently, game. The Bears saw what Justin Fields can be in this league. And what he can be is a top tier starting quarterback.

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