The offseason is winding down as we are now firmly in training camp and shifting into preseason mode, but before the real games start I want to sneak one last series examining part of the roster to give us a better sense of what to expect in the 2024 season.

I’ve spent quite a bit of time looking at the offense in the last few months, as we’ve learned together about new OC Shane Waldron, the WRs, the TEs, and expectations for rookies Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze. However, I’ve completely ignored the offensive line, and want to spend a little time this week focusing on the big boys up front who will be tasked with protecting the quarterback and opening lanes in the run game.

We’ll start today with the interior, and look at tackles tomorrow.

Guards

Pass Protection

Let’s start with guards, and then begin by examining pass protection, which is the most important part of an offensive lineman’s job. There were 62 guards (1.9/team) who had at least 300 pass blocking snaps in 2023, which is roughly starters. Chicago had three players in this sample: Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, and Cody Whitehair. The table below shows how they help up protecting the passer compared their peers around the NFL. A few quick notes:

• All data is from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
• True pass sets are intended to remove plays designed to minimize the pass rush and make the OL’s job easier, such as screens, play action, and rollout.
• Pass blocking efficiency measures overall pressure allowed, but weights sacks more heavily than other pressures. A higher number is better.
• In a 62 player sample, 31st would be the middle rank, while cells highlighted in green indicate they ranked in the top 25% (top 16) and red indicates the bottom 25% (47th or worse).
• Ryan Bates is also included, since he will be competing for a starting spot this year.
  • He didn’t play much in 2023, so his data is from 2022, and thus doesn’t have any ranks indicated.
  • The Bears plan to have him compete at center, but he’s only played 203 career snaps at C spread across 4 seasons, so that’s not much to go on. He played 821 snaps at guard in 2022, the only season where he’s had starting snaps, so that’s what we’ll evaluate.

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Yesterday, we explored the tackles, where Braxton Jones looks like a solid starter. Today, we will look at the guards.

Pass Blocking

The Bears had four guards play meaningful snaps last year, and the table below shows how they held up in pass protection compared to the 77 guards around the NFL who had at least 200 pass blocking snaps (Lucas Patrick did not have enough snaps to qualify, so his ranks are where he would have fit if he did). All data is from Pro Football Focus (PFF), and true pass sets are intended to remove plays designed to minimize the pass rush, such as screens, play action, and rollout. Cells highlighted in green indicate they ranked in the top 25%, while red indicates the bottom 25%.

A few thoughts:

• Like we saw with the tackles, the Bears minimized the amount of true pass sets in order to protect an offensive line that they didn’t trust to hold up in protection. And like we saw with tackles, they generally had good reason not to trust the line, as there’s a whole lot of red and not a lot of green in this chart.
• Looking at individual players, the top three aren’t too bad. Nobody really stands out as being all that good, but they’re mostly around average to maybe a bit below average.
• Lucas Patrick, on the other hand, was horrible. I know he struggled through injuries last year, but he was legitimately one of the worst guards in the NFL.

Teven Jenkins got a lot of hype from Bears fans last year, but he seemed to struggle a bit as a pass protector, especially in true pass sets. Of course, it was his first season as a starter, so it’s possible that he improved as the season went on, like we saw from Braxton Jones yesterday. The table below looks at his performance when splitting the season into four-game intervals. Jenkins got hurt during the season in 2022, so he only played five games from Week 9 on, and those are all put into one sample.

Here you can see that some improvement was made as a pass protector, at least based on PFF’s grades. This is especially evident in the true pass sets, which is where Jenkins most struggled. Hopefully that progress can continue going forward.

Read More …

By now, most fans have come to terms with what the 2022 season is going to be. And what it’s going to be is ugly. But this season won’t be a wasted one if the team drains every ounce of evaluative sweat out of this gym towel of a roster. What do they need to do short-term?

(1) Get Velus Jones into the offense. It is understandable to want his speed involved in the punt return game, but that experiment has failed with gusto. Jones brings a dimension to the offense – speed – that doesn’t currently exist. Oh, he’s struggling with the playbook? Adjust the playbook! You’re telling me Jones is incapable of running 3-4 go routes a game to take the top off the defense? You’re telling me he can’t consistently motion as a decoy? He’s the only player on this roster capable of turning a bubble screen into a 25-yard gain. Play him and commit to getting him five touches a game.

(2) Acknowledge David Montgomery is not your best running back. DBB’s Data has been all over this, for seemingly years, but it’s now obvious that Montgomery is not a better running back than Khalil Herbert. Is he more valuable in the passing game? Yes. And that should guarantee him a role in the offense. But if the Bears are considering giving Montgomery big money, they have completely lost the plot. (For the record, I don’t believe they are.) Start Herbert. Work Montgomery into the game. Start thinking about 2023.

Read Wood’s thread on the issue HERE.

(3) Get Sam Mustipher off the field / Alex Leatherwood on it. Move Lucas Patrick – if healthy – to center and bring the former Raider on to play guard.  It is time to start experimenting with this offensive line at just about every position but the two tackles, where the Bears benefit from seeing Braxton Jones and Larry Borom with a full season of work. Leatherwood’s early career has been a disappointment, but he plays with aggression and that aggression should work for this rushing attack. (And if Leatherwood doesn’t work out, stick Riley Reiff into the lineup. That’s still a move for the future as Patrick profiles better at center than guard, long-term.)

The Bears are seeing, with Kyler Gordon, the importance of letting young players play. Gordon looked like the worst corner in the sport for four weeks but has completely turned his season around. Get as many of these kids on the field as possible and keep them there.

• Injuries, injuries, injuries. Lucas Patrick’s injured right thumb might seem minor but it’s hard to imagine a more significant malady for a team’s center. There are still 42 days until they start keeping score, so it’s a good thing the injury happened early, but Justin Fields will need time with his center before the 49ers arrive at Soldier Field on 9/11.
  • My guess at the starting OL for the opener: Reiff-Whitehair-Patrick-Schofield-Borom.
• Training camp practices are always a double edge sword. If one position group is thriving, it must mean the position group facing them on the other side of the ball is struggling. There is very strong reason to believe Ryan Poles has rebuilt the secondary in a single draft. Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker are not only making plays, but also carrying themselves like they belong. So much of secondary play is about swagger and these kids have it. But this wide receiver group is not very good. Darnell Mooney is a top player on the ascent. Velus Jones Jr. has the potential to be a versatile, exciting tool. But Byron Pringle, N’Keal Harry, Equanimeous St. Brown are all basically fourth options. It would be worrisome if this group were consistently winning on the practice field.
• Teven Jenkins is severely trending in the wrong direction. No player on this roster needed to prove more during these practice sessions. His unavailability is disconcerting.

Camp Tweet of the Week

Courtney Cronin is killing it on the Bears beat and she’s 100% right about this. Teams are getting comically paranoid.

Teams are taking this “don’t create a competitive advantage for our opponents” stuff too far. It’s the FOURTH day of practice. They’re not even in pads. Want to run a bunch of trick plays in practice? Wait until the session is closed. This is bordering the line of lunacy. https://t.co/pAzRyj74za

— Courtney Cronin (@CourtneyRCronin) July 30, 2022

.@reba ❤️@NSYNC 🎤
& the longest 🍦 name I’ve ever heard…

I promise you don’t want to miss this 👇🏼 https://t.co/7vxFY2ngoI

— Lauren Screeden (@lscreeden) March 24, 2022

Patrick the Kick Returner?

Morrow, if Healthy, a Steal?