Super Bowl Shorts, Volume V: Prediction

| February 10th, 2023

Four Thoughts on the Ballgame

  • The legs of the quarterbacks could possibly be the story. Patrick Mahomes has always extended drives with his legs in the biggest moments of his career. Jalen Hurts’ ability to carry the ball is the added dimension that makes Philly so difficult to defend. Mahomes is on one leg. Hurts has been reticent to carry the ball since injury. It begs the question: which player is more lethal with limited mobility? The answer is simple: Mahomes.
  • How do these two quarterbacks handle the pressure? Hurts and the Eagles were sacked 44 times. Mahomes and the Chiefs only 26 times. What does it mean? It is a question of design. The Eagles want to get the ball to their big-ticket wide receivers. And doing so takes time. The Chiefs are perfectly happy to dink and dunk their way around the field, especially considering they can dink to an unstoppable Travis Kelce.
  • If you’re looking for a statistical dividing line between the two clubs this regular season it is turnover differential. Eagles were +8. Chiefs were -3. What questions can we ask? Can the Eagles continue this trend of not turning it over? Can the Chiefs survive a turnover or two against this, the best opponent they have faced all season? How might an early turnover swing each team’s approach?
  • This feels even, with two players capable of being game winners: Chris Jones (KC) and DeVonta Smith (PHI). If one of these two guys dominates, I think it swings the result. If neither dominates, I like the Chiefs narrowly.

Kansas City Chiefs 24, Philadelphia Eagles 21

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Super Bowl Shorts, Volume IV: The Prop Bets

| February 9th, 2023

Five fun bets for Super Bowl Sunday, and as always, the odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook

Coin Toss: Tails (+100)

Tails, it has been said, never fails. And if something never fails, why would you not place a wager on it?

Travis Kelce: First TD Scorer (+650)

How much explanation does this require? Kelce might be the best pass-catching tight end in the history of the league and he’s the favorite weapon of Patrick Mahomes. When they get down inside the red zone, Kelce is options one, two and three.

Jalen Hurts: Under 49.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

It’s been well over a month since Hurts has eclipsed fifty yards rushing, and he did so against the Bears on December 18th. Hurts is sort of an up-the-gut rusher, exploiting gaps left by interior DL. The Chiefs have some of the best players in the league in the interior of their DL. The Eagles will run the ball effectively, but not with the quarterback.

Chris Jones: Over 0.25 Sacks (-135)

Hard for me to imagine a scenario where Jones doesn’t get on the stat sheet. Not a ton of value here but you should be able to parlay it in some locations, perhaps with your choice to win the game on the money line.

DeVonta Smith: 125+ Receiving Yards and 1+ TD (+1000)

The odds are long for a reason. This is a long shot bet. But as someone who has earmarked Smith as a potential MVP of this game, I feel it’s worth a slight financial risk. $10 to win $110 sounds about right.

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