(1) If Tremaine Edmunds can’t play Sunday (concussion) it will be a huge blow to the Bills defense. The Bears will be able to stretch the Buffalo secondary with their outside speed and that could leave huge pockets underneath for Trubisky to exploit with his legs. Edmunds would have been the logical candidate to use as a spy. He’s raw but has exemplary closing instincts/speed.

(2) Two things to expect from Buffalo OC Brian Daboll: wildcat looks and bubble screens. The former was shown against New England and seemed to catch Belichick off-guard early. The latter just makes sense, as the Bears have struggled to defend the quick screen and these are easy, one-read tosses to get Peterman “comfortable”.

(3) Worst thing the Bears can do against a quarterback like Peterman is sit back in soft coverages. Fangio should press the receivers outside and bring extra pressure whenever he can. The quicker they make Peterman process information, the more likely he is throw a pick-six or two.

On this episode of DaBearsPod:

• (0:24) Jeff urges fans to see the excitement building in front of them and stop with the million tiny debates.
• (2:27) Del Reid discusses founding #BillsMafia, running 26Shirts.com & all other things Bills.
• (21:25) Reverend Dave compares this Bears season to paper plates in an Airbnb in Zanzibar.

It’s a good show. Give it a listen

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears…

…and they are simply the better team, again. Yes, the game is on the road. Yes, it’s very hard to win on the road in the NFL. But the Bills are scoring 10.9 points per game. And that’s with scoring 27 in a dominant victory over the Vikings – the season’s most absurd outcome. (If you take that game out, the Bills are only averaging 8.5 points in their other 7 games. In this NFL that’s borderline impossible.)

How to Beat the Bills in Eight Steps

(i) The Bills have a very good defense. They are sixth in yards-per-game while operating with one of the worst offenses in the history of professional football. In case you missed it earlier, the BILLS ARE SCORING 10.9 POINTS PER GAME. Expect Sean McDermott – a disciple of the great Eagles DC Jim Johnson – to attack Mitch Trubisky early and often because he knows creating mistakes is his team’s best chance to win.

(ii) So the Bears need to be patient on offense. Run the ball. Be conservative in the passing attack. Don’t take unnecessary risks. Field goals are fine because the Bills simply don’t score touchdowns. Field position is huge because the Bills aren’t going 80 yards on anyone.

(iii) The Bills are starting Nathan Peterman most likely. And Peterman is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the history of the NFL. Career: 45.7%, 360 yards in three starts, 3 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 31.4 passer rating. (The backup? #BarkleyTime.)

(iv) The Bills have slow, lumbering wide receivers. Zay Jones can move a bit but Benjamin, Holmes, Croom and Clay (tight end) get almost no separation and are not what you’d called big YAC guys. (Whether Terrelle Pryor is able to get healthy enough/up to speed for this weekend remains to be seen. Doubtful.)

(v) The Bills can run the ball a bit but their offensive line – loaded with Bears castoffs like Jordan Mills and Vlad Ducasse – is not good enough to control the line of scrimmage for an extended period of time. It also shouldn’t be good enough to beat Hicks, Goldman & Company at all. Still, expect LeSean McCoy and Chris Ivory to have a few moments Sunday. They’re good players.

(vi) This means the Bills will need sustained, multi-play drives to score points. And without a successful running attack they’ll need to convert on third-and-longs to achieve that. But they’re starting one of the most inaccurate quarterbacks in league history and fielding a crop of receivers who fail to gain separation. This is not a winning formula for Buffalo.

(vii) The Bears knew the Jets couldn’t beat them. So they didn’t beat themselves. Expect the same Sunday.

(viii) Score 14 points. Probably win.

The Game Poem

Oh, in the home

Where the Buffalo Bills roam

Lived a man called Gerard McTeer

Ran a chipper in Trim

And the town adored him

When he left, there were many-a-tear

Now in Western New York

They call for the stork

For his cooking makes everyone randy

Not fancy, these things

These Buff-a-lo wings

As sweet and delicious as candy

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Very strange game. The Jets didn’t have anywhere near the weapons to move the ball consistently. The Bears were just error-prone enough to keep the game competitive for three quarters. But it’s a win they absolutely needed. And unlike many recent vintages of the Chicago Bears, they got it. Rapid fire…

• Conditions were brutal for the passing game. But the Bears made the plays they needed to make. The Cohen screen set the tone for the entire afternoon but Trubisky’s brilliant throw and Miller’s brilliant catch put this game away. It was so good, I’m going to show it to you again.

• In conditions like this, Matt Nagy has to rely upon his ground attack and he seemed to figure that out as the game went on. But Trubisky also has to learn that the deep shots aren’t worth it when the wind is howling north of 25 MPH. When the first down is there, just get it, whether that means him tucking-and-running or accepting the check down option. That’ll come with experience.
• Folks can complain about Trubisky all they want, but through seven games Mitch is completing 64.6% of his passes for 1,814 yards, 15 touchdowns, 6 interceptions and a rating of 97.8. He’s also got nearly 300 yards rushing. This kind of production, and this position, simply doesn’t happen in this town. And it’s about time fans start appreciating it.
• Great, great job by the fans at Soldier Field. All of those pre-snap penalties go into the fan column.
• Jordan Howard is not complicated. You give him 20+ carries, you get big time production. No, they numbers weren’t gaudy but he single-handedly put this game on ice in the fourth quarter. He’s not been a focal point of this offense so far. He should be.
• Khalil Mack was the most dominant defender in football through four games. And now we’re seeing what this defense would have looked like if Ryan Pace didn’t make the franchise-altering trade on September 1st. They’re a toothless pass rush. Leonard Floyd is invisible. Opponents can double Hicks inside. Without Mack, this secondary is going to be under a lot of pressure when instead of Sam Darnold it’s Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins or Matt Stafford taking the snaps for the other side.

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Chicago, IL – December 26, 2010. Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears…

…and this is the first must-win of the 2018 campaign. If the Bears are going to mount a serious challenge for the NFC North they have to be 5-3 after eight games. That record will more than likely give them the division lead at the halfway point with five division games remaining.

The Game Haiku

From Ed, the chants come.

J-E-T-S Jets! Jets! Jets!

Silence, ladderman!

The Asshole From the Haiku

Why the Bears Will Win!

• Prolific Bears Offense.
  • Chicago has scored 48-28-31 in their last three.
  • Jets defense has allowed 30+ in three of their last four games, and are bottom third against the run, pass, overall and in turnover differential.
  • This is a game that should allow Matt Nagy, Mitch Trubisky and the entirety of the offense to flourish. Especially at home.
• Sam Darnold vs. Bears Secondary.
  • The Jets are decimated by injury at wide receiver, with Robby Anderson being their only viable outlet on the outside.
  • This week they signed Rishard Matthews after needlessly cutting Terrelle Pryor a week ago. When you’re trying to find contributors on the waiver wire after Week 7, things aren’t where you want them to be.
  • The Jets drop a million passes, often into the hands of defensive backs.
  • Darnold leads the league in interceptions with ten. Kyle Fuller is tied for the league lead with three interceptions.
• Bears NEED the Game. It is only their seventh game of the season but all one has to do is listen to comments from coaches and players to realize they feel a sense of urgency right now. Matt Nagy said the Bears are “in a valley” and need to get out. Roquan Smith and Mitch Trubisky – the young leadership of this team – wouldn’t accept “close” a week ago and both stated unequivocally it is time to get a win. The Bears are a touchdown favorite at home to a rookie quarterback. Good teams don’t lose in that scenario.
• Text From My Brother: “If the Bears throw it to back in the flat or the tight end over the middle, we can’t cover it.” Yea, I think the Bears can do these two things.

Why They Won’t

• Bears Rush Defense. Both New England and Miami got every yard they needed on the ground, with the Dolphins flat out dominating the line of scrimmage and pounding Frank Gore into the second and third levels. The Jets are one of the rare run-first teams left in the league. Everything they do offensively flows from the two-headed monster of Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell. With Powell on IR one would expect rookie Trenton Cannon to play a larger role at Soldier Field. The Bears can’t let the Jets keep the game in second/third-and-short.
• Todd Bowles Loves to Blitz. It’s how he made a name for himself as a defensive coordinator, matching Bruce Arians’ offensive aggressiveness on the defensive side. Bowles will want to send pressure at Trubisky from every direction and try to force the young QB into mistakes. Bears will need outlets ready. (They don’t need to look much further than last week’s tape to see how Flip/Cousins handled this.)
• Special Teams. The three best return men in football will now be facing the Bears in three consecutive weeks and the Jets’ Andre Roberts is a top five kick and punt returner. The Bears allowed the Pats to score on specials; a cardinal sin. But with the Jets, they can’t allow Roberts to flip field position. Make the Jets play on long fields and the Bears will find themselves on short ones.

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I sent yesterday’s piece to a friend of mine who happens to run an NFL franchise. He read it, or at least he says he did. (I don’t think he actually takes time to sit down and read my stuff but I do know he reads my Tweets! You’d be surprised by how aware organizations are by what happens on Twitter re: their teams.)

Here are three texts he sent me that I think should present fans with an even-keeled, deeply knowledgeable, “no horse in the race” approach to the development of this young quarterback, Mitch Trubisky. I’ve cleaned up the grammar since he texts like an uneducated second-grader. (Now I’ll find out if he reads these.)

TEXT I.

“I looked at Mitchell as a year three starter. Loved his talent set. Knew he needed time.”

This is the first time [REDACTED] has ever mentioned this to me but it’s not surprising. He’s always enforced with me how important the plan to develop Trubisky would be and was deeply skeptical of the previous regime’s ability to do so. [REDACTED] thought Pace should have fired John Fox the second he intended to draft a quarterback.

TEXT II.

“I haven’t watched beyond the highlights but our pro guys like what they see. Reminds them of early Cam Newton, both positive and negative.”

I’d thought about this comparison but never wrote about it. The two both had limited collegiate experience. Cam struggled mightily with throws downfield early in his career. There was a lot of arm strength and very little touch. Newton also used his legs to get out of trouble instead of stepping up in the pocket and navigating his progressions. He grew out of those issues. Mitch will too.

TEXT III.

“Matt’s the real deal. He’ll get him there.”

[REDACTED] doesn’t bullshit me about coaches. Some of the funniest texts I’ve ever received are him killing high profile coaches in the league. (His shit on college coaches is even funnier.) [REDACTED] trusts that Trubisky will get where the Bears need him to be because he’s being led by Matt Nagy. [REDACTED] loves him.

This column comes not to defend the quarterback of the Chicago Bears because the quarterback of the Chicago Bears requires no defense. This column comes to defend three elements missing from modern sports discourse: patience, perspective and rational thought.

Mitch Trubisky is an inexperienced signal caller in his second year. Sunday was his 18th start – his sixth in a new, complicated offensive system. Through this period there have been plenty of good and plenty of bad to evaluate in the kid’s performances. And that puts Trubisky in the same category as just about every other young quarterback to come through the ranks of the NFL; a fact seemingly lost on the many social media football fans who believe Sean is the patriarch of the McVay Football Family.

Aaron Rodgers and Steve McNair were non-existent at this point in their NFL careers. Troy Aikman and Peyton Manning were throwing the ball to the other team far more than their own. Drew Brees, the league’s all-time passing leader, was so mediocre his team took a quarterback number one overall after his third season.

But fans are in a panic. Why? Because Patrick Mahomes has been an exception to this general rule. But the pre-professional experience of Mahomes/Trubisky should not be discounted. Mahomes threw 1,349 passes at Texas Tech. Trubisky threw 572 at North Carolina. The difference? Roughly Sam Darnold’s career at USC. As a current NFL GM texted me Monday, “You couldn’t draw up a better developmental path for a young QB than what Mahomes got.” Trubisky got a year of hand it off, hand it off, dodge a sack on third-and-long.

Nobody is arguing Trubisky is going to be better than Mahomes. But, honestly, who gives a shit? It’s not like Mahomes is in Detroit! Barring the two clubs both ending up in the Super Bowl, these two quarterbacks will be on the same field in their careers what, three times if both stick in the league for a decade plus?

(Side note: Notice nobody is yelling about taking Trubisky over Deshaun Watson anymore? That’s because Watson doesn’t look like he’s even going to physically make it to the end of his rookie contract. Sadly, many of us predicted this due to his frame and playing style. The league needs more Watsons, not less. But Watson should be a warning: the first seven games of one’s career do not a career make.)

Trubisky has work to do over the final ten games of 2018 because (a) he needs to get better, (b) the Bears can still achieve things this season and (c) the organization is building massive momentum for next season. And since I’m in a Paul Simon mood these days, I’m using the music legend to frame the discussion.

A Mile Out of Memphis

Accuracy has been Trubisky’s biggest issue through the first six games of the 2018 season and it’s been two routes in particular that have given him issues: the quick, mid-range out and the deep vertical, specifically over the middle.

Here’s the fact, though: Trubisky is not an inaccurate passer. He’s completing 65.9% of his passes, which is a higher rate than Ben Roethlisberger, Pat Mahomes, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson. And Trubisky is not tossing screens or easy dump-offs, even though he probably should be throwing more of both. He’s throwing the ball down the field. Just as he’s 15th in completion percentage, he’s 15th in yards-per-attempt.

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Staff Photo By Nancy Lane/Boston Herald

Not a particularly difficult game to diagnose. So here comes the diagnosis:

• Two special teams touchdowns. Nobody is beating the New England Patriots if they allow them 14 points on specials. Cody Parkey had been consistently knocking kickoffs through the end zone until Sunday and his failure to do so again cost the Bears dearly. Punt blocks simply can’t happen.
• But that punt block and the Mitch Trubisky interceptions shared a theme: want to. The Patriots played with more heat, more fire, more passion. They wanted the fifty-fifty throws. They went after the punt. I wrote last week that the Bears needed to match the fever pitch of their fans in the building. They did not.
• Trubisky had a truly strange game that will be difficult to evaluate until coach tape becomes available. He was harassed in the pocket and that harassment definitely caused accuracy issues. But without his ability to improvise and run, the Bears would have likely been blown out of this game. His scrambling touchdown run is one of the best plays by a Bears QB in decades.
• The running game is broken. This has been coming all season long but yesterday, officially, it broke. Matt Nagy is still suffering through growing pains as the team’s play caller and utilizing his rushing attack is the biggest pain. Because Jordan Howard is never going to thrive on 12 carries a game. That’s not who he is as a player. Howard wears down the defense with his physicality. He’s a bruiser. And the Bears are using him like he’s T.J. Duckett.
• Khalil Mack is hurt. And the team needs to sit him down and get him right. Using him as a decoy is not effective.

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