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Match-Up That Matters: Bears at Giants

| November 17th, 2016

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The Giants are a bizarre team. Talented, poorly-coached, temperamental, exciting, boring and just overall perplexing. What’s the match-up that matters?

Entirety of the Bears Defense

vs.

Odell Beckham Jr.

Three thoughts:

  • Beckham is the most spectacular talent at the wide receiver position I’ve ever seen. But he has two supreme flaws. (1) He’s an emotional train wreck. Hit him a few times when he’s not expecting to be hit and he’ll probably start crying. Not metaphorically. He literally cries on the sideline. (2) He drops the ball quite a bit. While it doesn’t get covered by the national media, obsessed with his one-handed show stoppers, he’s less reliable with two hands. This is a game where the Bears need to stick a corner on Beckham early and tell Adrian Amos to separate him at the torso every time he tries to go over the middle of the field.
  • Giants offensive line is better than many believed it would be coming into the season – especially at home – but it’s still not a unit that should stonewall the surging Bears pass rush.
  • Eli Manning has had success getting the ball to Beckham on quick slants and slyly smiling as OBJ takes those three-yard completions for 70-yard touchdowns. As crazy as it sounds, the most important fundamental to beating the Giants is tackling. Tackle well on the outside and NYG will struggle to move the ball consistently down the field.

Stop Beckham, win. Do I expect the Bears to do either? Who cares, I’m in France.

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Recent Draft History Dictates Bears Approach at QB

| November 15th, 2016

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The following is a special piece from the artist known as Data.

 

Ever since Ryan Pace took over the Bears in the 2015 offseason, rumors have been swirling around Jay Cutler. First, Pace was desperate to move on from him and draft Marcus Mariota, but then that didn’t work out, Cutler stuck around for 2015 and had a very good year, and all of a sudden the Bears were building around Jay Cutler. Then a rough start to the 2016 season that saw more turnovers than touchdowns before an injury knocked him out for a month happened, Cutler was replaced by Brian Hoyer, and head coach John Fox seemed to indicate Hoyer might be Chicago’s starter going forward. But the Bears kept losing, Hoyer got hurt, and rumors swirled simultaneously that Fox was done with Cutler and Pace might be done with Fox. Then Cutler came back and played a tremendous game in an upset of Minnesota, and all of a sudden he’s the quarterback we need, but not the one we deserve.

All that in a season and a half. It’s been a whirlwind ride, and nobody has any idea what’s going to happen in the last half season that could change the narrative around Cutler in either direction. Here’s one thing that seems abundantly clear: Cutler is 33 years old and has a long injury history, so whether or not he’s with the Bears in 2017, they need to start looking to the future of the game’s most important position.

But there are a lot of different opinions as to how the Bears should do that. Some think they should cut (or more realistically trade) Cutler and draft the next QB with their 1st pick. Others think they should keep Cutler around but spend a draft pick on a QB to groom behind him.

In order to help figure out which approach gives you better odds of success, I looked at the draft history of recent NFL drafts to see what the odds are of landing a solid starting quarterback in various parts of the draft. It’s too early to pass much judgment on 2016, as only 2 out of 15 quarterbacks drafted saw the field. So instead I looked at the 2011-15 drafts, giving us a 5-year sample size.

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Summing Up the Bears Blowout Loss to Tampa in Seven Sentences

| November 14th, 2016

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Jay Cutler delivered one of the most bewildering and terrible performances from a Chicago Bears quarterback in recent memory; a memory including the likes of Jimmy Clausen and Caleb Hanie. Cutler’s decision making was putrid, accuracy was non-existence and concern for the football borderline criminal. As the game drifted away, others also aided and abetted this sporting crime, but the loss sits squarely and without bobble on the shoulders of one man: Jay Christopher Cutler.

One should not make leaps about Cutler’s future in Chicago off one performance – good or bad. But this was performance was SO bad, it will be impossible for many to resist. I can’t blame them. If Brian Hoyer were healthy Sunday, he’d have been on the field by the second quarter.


Administrative note: I’m off to France for a bit but the content will continue! Data, Andrew and myself from abroad will be here daily, playing out the string.

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Match-Up That Matters: Bears at Bucs

| November 10th, 2016

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The Bears travel to Tampa for a match-up of two pretty evenly-matched teams. What will tell the tale?

Bears Rushing Attack

vs.

Tampa’s Poor Rush Defense

Three thoughts:

  • The Bears ran the ball with toughness and determination against a terrific Vikings defense with backup guards. From all reports, Josh Sitton and Kyle Long will return to the lineup Sunday. Long and Sitton aren’t just their two best offensive linemen. They are two of the best players on the team and leaders on the field. Their return should be worth 25+ additional yards.
  • Bucs are allowing more than 117 yards per game on the ground at 4.1 yards per carry. If Bears stay committed to the run,  and we know they will, they should have tremendous success on the ground.
  • Only one back in the league has a better yards per carry than Jordan Howard. (That would be the revelation that is Jay Ajayi in Miami. Reason #31 you don’t break the bank for CJ Anderson.) Howard isn’t going to beat a healthy Ezekiel Elliot for Rookie of the Year but I expect him to make a formidable argument over the second half of the season. That starts in Tampa.

If the Bears run it well, they win. I think they will…and do.

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With Promising Roster and Declining Division, There’s Hope Aplenty for Bears Fans

| November 8th, 2016

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Aaron Rodgers may still be great. He probably is. But the team assembled around him by Ted Thompson, especially on the defensive side of the ball, isn’t very good. And somebody will probably lose their job in Green Bay because of it.

Minnesota’s defense is terrific. They have a young, talented roster and, in Mike Zimmer, a superb defensive mind. Their offense? Serious question. Do they have a single position on that side of the ball settled moving forward into 2017?

Detroit is Detroit – a middle of the road franchise with a middle of the road coach having a middle of the road season. Their season has only found that middle of the road because Matt Stafford is performing at the highest level of his life. He’s among a handful of candidates for MVP through the season’s first half.

And then there’s the Chicago Bears.

In this league, a team doesn’t need to be better than all thirty-one other clubs to make the tournament and compete for a title. All they have to do is be better than the three teams in their division. Then you catch a couple good matchups in the tournament and you can find yourself hosting the Thursday night opener eight months later.

Right now the Bears are 2-6. That’s what they are. But they are 2-6 having played five and a half games with their backup quarterbacks and most off all of the season undermanned at key positions.

But when it comes to the division, this 2-6 club is already pretty damn close. They beat Detroit decisively. They manhandled Minnesota. And before Matt Barkley’s appearance they were every bit Green Bay’s equal, even at Lambeau Field.

And honestly, this should have surprised no one. Especially if you read this blog.

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Eight Thoughts From an NFL Sunday

| November 7th, 2016

Thoughts from a solid, entertaining day with the NFL.

(1) Norv Turner may be gone but the Minnesota offense isn’t going to be a title contender with those tackles and those skill guys. Detroit’s defense – in their new building – should have been the remedy. But not only did they struggle moving the ball but they’re now getting Sam Bradford hit with regularity. And we all know what happens when you get Bradford hit. You get Bradford hurt.

(2) Matthew Stafford is becoming the best late-game quarterback in the league. Detroit’s offense was lifeless throughout the second half  but with the game on the line and clock expiring, Stafford did what he’s done so often for this organization: pulled a win out of a loss.

(3) John Elway has been a brilliant GM for the Broncos. But he is wasting a year of a great defense by doing this Trevor Siemian stuff. The second the Broncos fall behind in a game, they’ve lost.

(4) Ted Thompson has done a terrible job building the Packers roster and Mike McCarthy will probably be fired for it. Aaron Rodgers’ play will receive the most scrutiny but Andrew Luck ripped that defense to shreds Sunday. Why? Because that defense isn’t any good.

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