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BLOCK EM AND BEAT EM!

If the Chiefs, with nine sacks on the season, don’t get to the opposing quarterback, it’s over. That might be true for many teams but it’s particularly true for a team with Justin Houston, Tamba Hali and Allen Bailey. Houston has three sacks and per Gil Brandt leads the league in total pressures with 19. He’s a magnificent player. What are the solutions? Well Hue Jackson, Andy Dalton and Bengals provided them…

• Quick passing game that’s been effective under Cutler through two and a half games. (See the single play breakdown below) The Chiefs secondary is awful so Cutler has to get the ball into the hands of his receivers and give them a chance to make plays.
• Read option looks. Dalton is not a running quarterback but the Bengals showed enough read option, specifically to Houston’s side, to keep the rush on its heels. Can Cutler’s hamstring be healed enough to even hint at the possibility of a run threat?
• Power run game up the middle. This should be a week where the Bears pound Forte up the gut and allow Kyle Long to release off the line of scrimmage after Houston. Houston is an excellent pass rusher but he’s a bit lost in run support. Long should be able to muscle him off the line.

THE GAME POEM

On the head of an arrow

lay a drop of blood

Darker than red

thicker than mud

To feel it

is to remember life

The sharpened blade

of this tribal knife

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That’s more like it. The Dolphins crashed and burned. The Bears were never going to be beaten by more than a field goal. Detroit was every bit the equal of Seahawks in Seattle. 3-0, over the hump and back in the saddle again.

Chicago Bears +10 over Kansas City

Didn’t understand the line when it was released. Don’t understand it now. Usually that means I’m lost but I just don’t see this game as particularly lopsided and that’s an awful lot of points. More to come tomorrow…

PACKERS UNDER 27.5 PTS HOME TO ST. LOUIS

Packers always score a boatload of points at home. But I like them at 27 or below for two reasons:

• This Rams defensive front can be hell for Aaron Rodgers to deal with for four quarters, especially Aaron Donald in the middle. Rodgers won’t have any time to look down the field for big strike, quick point plays. No big plays means points will take longer to score.
• Todd Gurley. That was a “wow” performance from Gurley a week ago and I expect him to get better week-to-week. Want to keep Rodgers off the field? Feed Gurley.

NEW YORK GIANTS -7 VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Niners are dead. They are the worst team in football. They have the worst quarterback in football. And they are going to play the eventual Super Bowl champion in primetime? No chance.

Record: 6-5-1 (+$40)

Four Tweets after studying Fuller (and only Fuller) on the coaches tape.

• He played a flawless first half, blanketing four or five different players. Never targeted. Not once.
• Lost Crabtree on key play in the Q3 & responded two plays later by dislodging a huge 3rd down pass at goal line. Saved TD.
• Showed terrific closing speed for tackles all afternoon. And was aggressive with contact. Didn’t miss a tackle.
• Unbelievable to think this was same guy who looked like he couldn’t play a few weeks ago. Played like top corner Sunday.

THAT DARNED STAT

• Bears are currently 7th in yards allowed per game (309) and 5th in passing yards allowed (189.8). Considering the lack of consistent pass rush and deficiencies in secondary personnel, these are remarkable statistics.
• The ten teams leading the league is total rushing attempts are a combined 13-27.

• Turnovers remain the most important stat in the sport. Not a single team in the top 12 in turnover differential is under .500.

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It was only one win but it felt like six. Thoughts:

• This was the classic Jay Cutler performance, even without proper usage of his legs. He moved the team up and down the field, behind a makeshift offensive line and without his top wide receiver. He threw one stupid pass. But with the game on the line and the ball in his hands he drove the Bears to their first victory of the season.
• Cutler continues to be a winning quarterback when the Bears play defense. The model isn’t brain surgery, folks. Cutler is not a shootout-type quarterback. There are only about five of those in the league and he isn’t one of them.
• Losing Will Montgomery can’t be overstated. NFL teams have collapsed under the weight of losing their starting center. But the Bears used their third round pick on center Hroniss Grasu this year. If he’s not moved into the starting lineup this week, one wonders how far off the kid is from playing?
• Still not sure I understand Matt Forte picking up 25 carries while Rodgers and Langford total 3.
• Hated how John Fox handled the ends of both halves. In the first half, once the Bears sack Carr on first down, Fox has to use the first timeout. He gave away a clear scoring chance. At the end of the game, who plays for a 49-yard field goal? I don’t care how good Robbie Gould is kicking right now – and he might be at his career best – there was far too much time to get ultra-conservative with the game on the line.

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Chicago Bears Schedule

“Oakland wants to run the clock down here…they’re going to go hurry up though.”

-Something Chris Simms actually said while calling Raiders v. Browns

KYLE LONG V. KHALIL MACK

If you’re looking for a single reason to be excited for Bears v. Raiders, this is it. Mack rarely moves off left side of the defensive line (if at all) and that means a showdown between two of the best young players in the sport for sixty minutes. Mack has the advantage of being a pass rusher for the last half decade while Long has been a tackle since Labor Day. If Long consistently wins this battle it will reaffirm the belief of many that he’s destined to be one of the best tackles in the sport for years to come.

WHAT THE RAIDERS LIKE TO DO IS…

• Feed Amari Cooper and feed him a lot. It is rare to see a young wide receiver as polished and versatile as the young man from Alabama. Derek Carr is just as comfortable throwing him a quick fade on first-and-ten from his own 20 as he is throwing him a slant on third-and-goal at the one with the clocking winding down on a victory. Cooper embarrassed Joe Haden in Cleveland and the Bears don’t have a defensive back anywhere near Haden’s league.
• Play with balance. Even when the Raiders were nursing a substantial lead against the Browns they managed to mix in the pass with some effectiveness. After the Browns got within 7 of them late in the fourth quarter Sunday, here was their drive (the fumbled punt by Cleveland cost them the gain):

• Run the power game with Latavius Murray. Murray reminds me an awful lot of Frank Gore. He’s not only big and strong but he’s got real explosiveness once he get through the initial hole. He’s hell for any secondary to deal with in the open field.
• Sit their safeties back and make opponents throw underneath. One reason tight ends have had such success against the Raiders (see Bears of intrigue) is that neither Charles Woodson nor Nate Allen are capable of covering anyone. Both are far more comfortable 15-20 yards off the line of scrimmage, playing a center field role. One would imagine this approach will change against James Clausen as giving Clausen any easy throws is a schematic mistake. No throws are easy for Clausen if there’s a defender within five yards. (If Cutler plays, expect Woodson to sit deep and rely upon his proven track record of reading Cutty’s eyes.)

THE GAME POEM

They come….

Raid, raid, pillage and plunder!

…young and hungry…

Raid, pillage, pillage, raid!

…a western horde…

Plunder, pillage, raid!

…ascending to the top of the hill…

Raid. Pillage. Plunder.

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Another 1-2 week has left me reeling through three weeks of the season. Gave the Ravens too much credit (and didn’t deduct enough points for Marc Trestman’s involvement in their organization). Didn’t give the Bears defensive coaching staff enough credit. Nothing is over. Nothing. I shall rebound.

DOLPHINS UNDER 20 POINTS V. JETS IN LONDON

If you get an opportunity to watch the replay of Bills v. Dolphins from Sunday, spend the hour and do so. It felt like, from the opening whistle, we were watching the last game of the Joe Philbin era in Miami. The offense was useless. The defense made Tyrod Taylor look like Roger Staubach. The coaching staff didn’t make a single discernible adjustment over the course of 60 minutes. And they’ve completely lost the plot with their use of Suh.

Are the Jets great? No. But their defense is capable of wrecking this game for the Dolphins and I can’t see Tannehill getting this group to three touchdowns.

BEARS +3 OVER RAIDERS

Full report on this selection will be available in tomorrow’s game preview.

LIONS +10 AT SEAHAWKS

Let’s look at the Seahawks first three games. They were humiliated defensively in week one by Nick Foles and a Rams offense that have gone AWOL since. They were somewhat lifeless at Lambeau Field, losing by double digits in a game that never felt that close. Sunday, at home against Jimmy Clausen, they were entirely unimpressive. So how are they double-digit favorites against ANYBODY? Not only do I think this game is close, I wouldn’t be surprised if Detroit has a chance to win late.

Record: 3-5-1 (-$260)