The Bears play three of their next four games on the road: at the Martz-had-no-use-for Greg Olsen in Carolina, at the Lovie-found-no-use-for Devin Hester in Atlanta and at Tom Brady and the now prematurely-buried Patriots. Sandwich in a home game against the Miami Dolphins and you have a four-game stretch that will set this season’s tone. Some teams battle for division titles. Some teams chase the top of the table all year long. How the Bears perform over these four games will position them in one of those two categories.

This is not a long-winded column. This opinion does not require a ton of explanation. When the Bears emerge from their bye week in November they play five of the their final eight games at home, including the warm weather, dome-based Saints and Cowboys in Soldier Field on cold evenings where both have been unmitigated disasters in the past. The other three games are at their division rivals. Those eight games will define the 2014 Bears.

Four out of four means the Bears are title contenders. Three out of four means they’re a serious playoff team. Two out of four means they’ll have a meaningful final two months of the season. Anything less is a crap shoot. Anything less than .500 over these next four games will be a serious cause for concern and more than likely leave the Bears with a second wild card ceiling.

To paraphrase Al Davis, “Just win…half of em…baby.”

Player Trades In-Season Are Rare But…

The Oakland Raiders are dreadful while Charles Woodson is playing every snap at an apparently high level. From an ESPN mailbag:

Woodson, who turns 38 next month, has been one of the Raiders’ best and most reliable defensive players. He has played every defensive snap. That is remarkable for a player of his age. When the Raiders brought him back in 2013, they were just hoping for some leadership and situational help on the field. But Woodson is giving him so much more. He is ending a Hall of Fame career on a high note. It’s really cool to witness.

Does he really want to wrap his career on a 2-14 Raiders team? If you’re Phil Emery, and you know what you’re fielding at safety, why not make an offer? Woodson would not only be the Bears best safety by a wide margin but also has a brilliant knowledge of the divisional opponents and leadership the secondary is now lacking with Peanut’s absence.

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The Packers deserved to win. Their offense made fewer mistakes than the Bears offense. But this game left me hollow for a lot of reasons. Rapid fire…

• The referees destroyed this game for me. Even when the Bears have been blown out I usually find my angles of watching, my momentum for the coming week. But the calls made is this game were the worst I’ve seen since Mike Holmgren and the Seahawks were jobbed out of a Super Bowl. On both sides! But the Bears defense is not good enough to overcome Aaron Rodgers being handed new sets of down on ridiculous, nonsensical calls. The hold on Bostic on the field goal? The late hit on Lamarr Houston? Once again, the referees were not the reason the Bears lost. But they absolutely ruined the afternoon.
• Bears defense was horrible. Outside of Willie Young making a few nice hustle plays and blocking a kick, I can’t think of a single player on the defensive side of the ball worthy of praise.
• Mel Tucker criticism is warranted but Aaron Rodgers made a half dozen outstanding throws. He was special yesterday.
• This game was decided by a simple factor: mistakes. The Bears dropped a perfectly called onside kick. Cutler missed a wide open Alshon Jeffery high in the end zone. Josh Morgan should score on a screen but didn’t bother to extend the ball. Martellus Bennett runs a route at the one yard line instead of the goal line to end the first half. Brandon Marshall runs the wrong route on the second interception. Bears have a lot to clean up.

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Three Final Thoughts

(1) Unless Cutler goes 31-37, 385 yards and three touchdowns and the Bears lose a shootout, the quarterback will be the story today. Sometimes the NFL is not about Xs and Os. Sometimes its just about about one guy putting a team on his back and saying, “We’re not losing today, fellas.” That is what Cutler needs to do today.

(2) Bears need Jared Allen. They need his presence and they need his production. If he misses the game due to illness or is limited due to weakness, the Bears will need heroic efforts from Young and Houston.

(3) Mike McCarthy likes to be creative with his special teams calls against the Bears, especially at Soldier Field. Bears should be careful every time the Packers line up to kick/punt and be wary of the Packers overloading the Bears right side when P.O.D. is dropping back.

Why do I like the Chicago Bears this week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

(But this week just a bit more.)

A Thought on Aaron Rodgers

For the first time in his tenure with the Green Bay Packers, The Golden Boy hath lost his shine. His gold is more a beige. The Beige Boy.

It started a year ago with Greg Jennings criticizing Rodgers on the way out the door, causing national NFL media types to start a letter-writing campaign in hopes of having Jennings ex-communicated from the league. Aaron Rodgers not a good leader? Aaron Rodgers not a great teammate? How dare anyone insinuate such a thing!

(Side note: Outside of Devin Hester, who couldn’t play the position he was asked to play, how many players from Jay Cutler’s huddle have made such accusations?)

On opening night of the 2014 campaign there was Aaron Rodgers verbally ripping his fifth-round rookie center in front of a national audience. After the Packers loss to Detroit, one of their most woeful offensive performances in years, he ripped the individuals responsible for adjustments. (Some call these individuals “coaches”.) From Packers.com:

“We didn’t make enough adjustments to score enough points,” Rodgers said.

Adjustments?

“Adjustments, yeah. We didn’t make enough adjustments,” Rodgers said.

“Their goal was they were going to limit the number of one-on-one coverages and roll the coverage to Jordy. We need balance. We have to run the ball better, more effectively. We haven’t done it in the first three games,” Rodgers said.

So it’s the coaches and their adjustments. And it’s those responsible for running the ball. So everybody on the offense except for…him? You think this was harmless? Mike McCarthy did not and took veiled shots back when he met the media:

“I’m not really up here to talk about scheme,” McCarthy said at his Monday news conference. “One thing I always talk to our players about all the time is scheme is not a crutch. The fundamentals and the things we do from an execution standpoint were not good enough, clearly, on offense.”

There is blood in the water for the first time in the Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay. If the Bears don’t pounce on them at home like Alex Kintner, they are not ready to seize the moment and control of the NFC North.

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SOME STATISTICAL STUFF

• Two quarterbacks will play Sunday at Soldier Field. One has completed 66.1% of his passes for 750 yards and a TD-INT ratio of 8-2. Passer rating? 98.2. The other has completed 62.7% of his passes for 697 yards and a 5-1 ratio. Passer rating of 95.1 Heading into Bears v. Packers, Bears have the quarterback playing at the higher level.
• Through three weeks, the Bears have the league’s sack (Willie Young, 4) and interception (Kyle Fuller, 3) leaders.
• Bears defense has not allowed a second half touchdown.
• Bears offense is 27th in yardage and 9th in points. If you read this site you know how I feel about quantifying offensive performance with yardage gained. It is nonsensical, especially in the current NFL where yards simply aren’t that difficult to gain. How an offense performs in the red zone is how that offense is defined. Points matter. Yards don’t.

ON MATT FORTE’S “STRUGGLES”

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This was an ugly win of an ugly game for the Chicago Bears. But I have news for you. Every team that goes into the Meadowlands to play the Jets is due for an ugly contest. The Jets have the best young defensive line in the NFL. They have a coach who is a mastermind at blitz schemes. They want ugly. They thrive on ugly.

Here are my thoughts on the Bears.

• Did Mike Tirico have the “Mundy Night Football” call ready to go? If so he just out-Nantzed everything Jim Nantz has ever spewed at the end of the golf tournament. (And why would he have that call ready?)
• Did Jay Cutler play a great game? No. But he was brilliant at times and if he doesn’t miss a few throws high the night would have looked much better. His first touchdown pass to Martellus Bennett showed a wonderful presence in the pocket and trademark arm strength. But his drive at the start of the second half was a thing of beauty and ultimately won the game for the Bears.
• Last night with a hobbled Brandon Marshall, a useless run game and an over-matched offensive line, he was cool. He was a leader. And as he sits with 750 yards and an 8-2 TD-INT, he is starting to make the MVP talk seem less silly.
• Was that Jared Allen starting his Bears career in the fourth quarter? Sure looked like it. He was manhandled by Brick Ferguson for the first three.
• Through three games, Mel Tucker’s defense has not allowed a touchdown in the second half. They have allowed only 12 points. No opponent has scored more than 20 points. He is having a solid year as defensive coordinator thus far.

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