The following thread will serve as the game day thread. Enjoy the evening and if you’re drinking at the local bar or a friend’s house…don’t drive. Call a cab. It ain’t that expensive.

The Super Bowl is to football what St. Patrick’s Day is to drinking: a day specifically for the amateurs. But within the confines of Amateur Hour today is a really spectacular football match-up.

My prediction? Baltimore Ravens 31 – San Francisco 49ers 28. Here are five major questions I have heading into tonight’s contest:

1. How will the Ravens handle Vernon Davis? They have no player in the middle of their defense (linebacker, safety) capable of containing Davis so might they enlist hot corner Corey Graham for the task?
2. Will either team find a pass rush? Neither team has successfully rushed the passer for a month. If one of them rediscovers it today they’ll be champions by midnight.
3. Can Joe Flacco be accurate as an intermediate thrower? We know Flacco is arguably the best deep ball thrower in the sport but can he can have the success Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers had recently against this Niners defense? Can Flacco be accurate from 5-10 yards and utilize weapons like Pitta and Boldin over the middle?
4. Will David Akers kill the 49ers? Last year Akers was the best field goal kicker in the league. This year he was the worst. That is a rare occurrence in the NFL and Jim Harbaugh has rolled the dice, bringing the flailing lefty to New Orleans. What happens if Akers misses a chip shot early? Can Harbaugh go back to him? If Akers costs the Niners a title you can expect the first criticisms of Harbaugh to echo throughout the Bay Area.
5. Which Colin Kaepernick will show up? Kaepernick has won two playoff games with two performances indistinguishable from one another. Will he attempt to tire the older Baltimore legs with his sprinter’s speed or will he able to shrug off the pressure of the game and hit receivers in stride the way he did in the second half of the Falcons game? Kaepernick strikes me as the type of player who can win a Super Bowl on his own if he so chooses. Will he?

It’s a wonderful game from a tactical standpoint. Here’s hoping the hullabaloo will end quickly and the contest will begin.

Special thanks to Cam for a terrific season. He’ll be back around draft time and definitely around for the 2013 season.

If you haven’t had an opportunity to hear Brian Urlacher’s open, honest interview on Waddly & Silvy yesterday – give it a listen. You can do so by CLICKING HERE. Here are my reactions to the spot:

•  I don’t know why but it always surprises when players admit to their complete ambivalence when it comes to issues with potentially drastic impacts on their lives and career. Urlacher said he didn’t follow the Bears coaching search and displayed a sort of apathetic ignorance when it came to Marc Trestman AND defensive coordinator Mel Tucker. Is it really possible Urlacher cared this little?
• Marc Silverman asked a nice question: would Urlacher have preferred following Lovie to his next destination should his former coach have landed a gig? Urlacher didn’t hesitate in saying no. He followed shortly with a line that rang true, “Chicago is my home.”
• He did admit that were the Bears not to engage him on a possible contract Lovie would have been appealing for system reasons.
• I should have opened with this point but I expected nothing less: Urlacher is healthy and wants to play. He’s currently training in Arizona.
• Urlacher will offer the Bears a “hometown discount” as he understands his age and health limitations. I’ve always contended Urlacher is well aware his value is greater in Chicago than any other location in the NFL. He admitted he will not make what he previously made.

Here’s what I came away with after listening to Urlacher: if Phil Emery wants him to be the Bears middle linebacker in 2013, he will be the Bears middle linebacker in 2013. I hope it comes to pass.

I used to make an argument that fans would prefer to see media members, former players and coaches debate the selections for the Pro Bowl than watch the Pro Bowl itself. But since the Pro Bowl has outperformed the World Series in the ratings for the second consecutive year, I’ll admit I may have been wrong. There is an undeniable fact about the yearly game in Hawaii that does not receive much media attention: people watch it. A lot of people watch it.

This week I had an idea. Is it a bizarre idea? Yes. It is an unlikely idea to ever be adopted by the NFL? Without question. But would it make for one hell of an interesting football Sunday? I think so.

I would combine the Senior Bowl and the Pro Bowl. Here are a bunch of thoughts on the subject, including identifying some definitive pratfalls.

• Pro Bowl selections would no longer be divided into separate conferences. This isn’t baseball. There are not different rules and there’s no reason for 6-8 corners to be selected to an all-star event. It would elevate the Pro Bowl’s status to that of an All Pro team.
• Since most of the actual Senior Bowl evaluations take place during practice sessions, the structure of those practice sessions would remain the same. College players won’t be judged unfairly by how they fare against professionals.
• On the Sunday before the Super Bowl the Senior Bowl team would play the Pro Bowl team. How much fun would it be to see the best senior defensive end battle Ryan Clady? How much fun would it be see Ryan Glennon attempt to complete passes on Charles Tillman? Wouldn’t we know more about Eric Fisher after watching him battle with Julius Peppers? Would the Senior Bowl side have a shot to win the game? No! But one or two of those players would stand out in the contest and think about how much money they could make.
• Wouldn’t this add intensity to the proceedings? Wouldn’t the Senior Bowl players do everything in their power to impress not only the sideline scouts but also the players opposite them? Wouldn’t the professional players go out onto the field with the ambition of showing these kids what they’re about to encounter?
• I would not be opposed to allowing non-seniors into the game. If a player declares early for the NFL Draft they should be allowed to participate in the game if they are deemed worthy. But the folks selecting the Senior Bowl team must be as rigid and meticulous as the Pro Bowl selection squad. It must be the the best of college football.

Is this idea silly? Sure. But it’s Super Bowl week. I’m allowed. And I can unabashedly say there is no chance in hell I would miss this game were they to actually play it.

(I say you help me in the comments and we’ll form this into a more coherent concept.)

In his playoff debut Colin Kaepernick ran rough shot through the fittingly cheese-like defense of the Green Bay Packers to the tune of 181 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns. Just when fans and media members started to believe we were seeing the championship ascension of a true rush-first quarterback, Kap put the run game in his back pocket and unleashed a 16-for-21 accuracy clinic and dissected the Falcons secondary en route to the Super Bowl in New Orleans.

Stopping a running quarterback, especially in the read-option/pistol style, is about gap discipline. It is about not over pursuing off the perimeter. And while it sounds remedial, it most often comes down to ball awareness. But there are far more qualified individuals than myself capable of breaking down the Xs and Os of defeating the formerly college-only run system. (Matt Bowen would be my local choice. Pete Prisco of CBS Sports would be my national guy if you can wade through his genuine disdain for read-option/pistol system itself.)

There is another way to stop the Kaepernicks and Wilsons and Griffins of the world. You run with them, sideline-to-sideline. You match their remarkable athleticism with athleticism of your own. In his prime, throughout nearly the entirety of the previous decade, Ray Lewis was matched only by the Bears’ Brian Urlacher when it came to athleticism at the middle linebacker position. There wasn’t a quarterback or running back in the league able to avoid his dogged pursuit.

It would be sacrilegious in some NFL circles to posit the theory that Ray Lewis is no longer a very competent middle linebacker. Commissioner Goodell, the networks and Lewis’ future employer ESPN have spent the last three weeks attempting to sweep the infamous events of Atlanta under the rug while celebrating Ray’s recently bloated tackles numbers. (Studying Lewis on tape will also reveal the sheer ridiculousness of the tackle statistic. Every time Lewis approaches the pile you he is credited with bringing down the ball carrier.) One can not quantify Lewis’ ability to call defenses or  inspire others around him. He is the unquestioned heart and soul of the Ravens. But physically, he is simply not Ray Lewis any longer.

I wonder if Jim Harbaugh won’t look at the tape of the 2012 Baltimore Ravens and notice the slow, aging middle linebacker wearing #52. I wonder if Jim Harbaugh won’t unleash his running quarterback in Lewis’ direction throughout the first half in an effort to test the future Hall of Famer’s speed and – perhaps more importantly – stamina. I wonder if the lasting image from the final football game of the 2012 season might not be Kaepernick surging down the sideline while Lewis watches from a distance.

I also wonder if Lewis isn’t capable of channeling the Ghost of Super Bowl Past and delivering one more brilliant on-field performance. Knowing he’ll wake up Monday morning a former player, will Lewis leave everything available to him on the Superdome carpet?

For me it is the most intriguing match-up of Super Bowl XLVII. Colin Kaepernick, in style and ability, is the future of the sport. Ray Lewis is the immediate past. Will the NFL take its first major step into tomorrow? Or will the sport pause one final time to reflect on previous greatness?

Mel Tucker took part in a series of videos with Super Bowl winning coach Brian Billick. Here he is breaking down the science of defensive play calling. They are a nice introduction to the man now in charge of the Bears defense.

Defending 4 Verts

Playing Cover 3

Calling Plays From the Field or From the Box

Hypothetical.

If the Falcons were to go 16-0 over the course of the 2013 regular season do you honestly believe Vegas would make them more than a three or three and a half point favorite against ANY opponent? And Vegas aside, would you enter that contest with any confidence in the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons?

In the 2010-11 playoffs, the 13-3 blackbirds lost their first playoff game to the Green Bay Packers at home 48-21.

In the 2011-12 playoffs, the Falcons lost their playoff game to the New York Giants 24-2 in one of the more pathetic displays of playoffs past.

This postseason the Falcons survived blowing a 20-point first half lead to the Seattle Seahawks with a heroic half-minute field goal charge that many believed would alter the organization’s modern history. It did not. A week later Atlanta blew another first half lead – this one 17 points – to the San Francisco 49ers. No magic wand this time. No lucky lotto ticket. The #1 seed in the conference exited the NFC playoffs having blown 37 points in first half leads.

The Falcons are setting a new standard for playoff futility. But there’s another team starting to creep up on them slowly. Who, you ask? I think you know.

Think about the Green Bay Packers for a minute. They won the Super Bowl in February 2011. They went 15-1 the following regular season and were runaway favorites to win the Super Bowl. The Aaron Rodgers bandwagon had reached a tipping point as comparisons to Joe Montana (not Joe Montegna) were rolling  and folks were starting to throw the “dynasty” word around on the national football broadcasts. There was no reason to move the Lombardi Trophy from Title Town. It would stay home for the next few years.

Then Eli Manning and the New York Giants walked into Lambeau Field, manhandled the Packers 37-20 and went on to win another Super Bowl for Big Blue. Clay Matthews claimed the Packers beat themselves. Local media blamed the lengthy layoff for the seemingly stale offensive output. The performance was written off as the exception, not the rule.

The Packers entered the 2012 season, once again, as one of a handful of favorites to win the Super Bowl. They won the NFC North division after a slow start behind the soon-to-fade Chicago Bears. But when faced with a win-and-bye scenario in Week 17 they failed to tackle Adrian Peterson once, a single time, EVER and were forced to play on wild card weekend.

Did that matter? No and yes. No because Joe Webb showed up at Lambeau on Saturday night and was grotesquely unprofessional. Yes because it meant the Packers would need to travel to San Francisco the following weekend and be manhandled in the postseason for the second consecutive season.

The Packers are 0-2 in the postseason against teams not quarterbacked by Joe Webb since winning the Super Bowl. They’ve lost those two games by an average 15.5 points.

I understand a response to this with, “Well he’s a Bears blogger. Of course he is spinning this negative!” I’d respond with words from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Bob McGinn:

A week ago, Jim Harbaugh called the Green Bay Packers the best team in the National Football League over the last number of years.

“They play tremendous as a team and they have guys step up when others are injured,” the 49ers’ second-year coach said before the San Francisco-Green Bay divisional playoff game. “They have great coaching . . . they have great talent.

“They do the things that all teams aspire to be. Which is not just consistent, but consistently good.”

Three days later, the Packers showed their consistency in another area. They’re a soft football team, and in a sport that forever favors the tough, soft is a very, very bad thing to be.

The Packers’ season ended just as it started, in a convincing defeat handed down by an opponent that is physically superior.

What general manager Ted Thompson and coach Mike McCarthy do about it will determine if this team is to go down as “just another fart in the wind,” as the 1990s one-and-done title team was characterized by GM Ron Wolf, or wins another championship.

And that same newspaper has not only called into question the physicality of the club. Rob Reischel called into question the leadership of the star quarterback:

Aaron Rodgers, one of the leaders of the Green Bay Packers, sat alone at his locker, staring aimlessly around the room. Rodgers was asked if he’d talk about the season that just ended.

“Nope,” Rodgers said.

Instead, Rodgers began eavesdropping on an interview linebacker Desmond Bishop was conducting.

After each question, Rodgers made a snide remark about the queries loud enough for anyone within earshot to hear.

“I can’t believe they’d ask that,” Rodgers said.

“Nice question,” he said another time.

Finally, doing his best Drew Rosenhaus, Rodgers bellowed, “Next question.”

Instead of preparing for the NFC Championship Game, Rodgers was now critiquing reporters.

It’s this type of leadership that had some taking shots at the 2011 most valuable player this season.

One can argue the pressure has been relieved from the Atlanta Falcons heading into the 2013 season. Nobody will care one way or another what the team does unless they find themselves playing in the last game of the season in New Jersey.

The pressure on the Green Bay Packers is just beginning to mount and 2013 may be the fork in their championship road.

The last nine Super Bowls have been won by six quarterbacks. Their names will be familiar to you. A couple Mannings. Brady. Roethlisberger. Rodgers. Brees. It is this trend of high-paid, statistical machine quarterbacks being exclusive holders of the Lombardi Trophy that has given way to the insufferable and utterly inconsequential “elite quarterback” debate.

I don’t care if a quarterback is elite because I don’t think the word “elite” is being bandied about in this case to do anything more than fill segments on First Take and the NFL Network. And I don’t care if Quarterback A is better than Quarterback B or more clutch than Quarterback C. I care about one thing: is Quarterback A good enough to win a bunch of playoff games in a row and be walking down Main Street at the Magic Kingdom in Walt Disney World when they air the commercial come the ghosts of late February future.

In two weeks, in the Booze & Food Historical Theme Park known as New Orleans, either Joe Flacco or Colin Kaepernick will break the nine-game trend and become only the seventh active NFL quarterback to have led their team to a Super Bowl title. No matter which quarterback wins a simple debate will ensue: Is [Insert Winning Quarterback] Now Elite?

That conversation will segue naturally in Chicago to: Can Jay Cutler add his name to the championship list?

There are folks entrenched in the NO column. Thesy believe Jay Cutler is an arrogant, turnover generating coach killer incapable of being the kind of  on-field leader that wins the big one. If you ask these individuals a follow-up on Cutler they will also blame him for the face-tingling winds off the lake each January and for spotty cell phone service on the CTA.

There are also loyalists tied by chains to the YES pole in protest. They believe Cutler’s problems have not been Cutler at all (or at least not mostly). Jay’s problems have been the lack of offensive coordinator consistency, failure of the offensive line to protect either perimeter, the reluctance of pre-Emery management to add weapons on the outside and the lack of a no-fat vegetarian pizza option at Pizano’s on State Street.

Both sides have fair points to make.

Cutler is turnover prone and has shown a reluctance to be coached in his post-Mike Shanahan NFL career. His shoving J’Marcus Webb, walking away from Mike Tice and relaying an angry “Fuck him!” to Mike Martz (below) have made folks across the league question whether he possesses the emotional maturity to capitalize on his alarming physical gifts.

Cutler is not without excuses, however. He HAS been forced to adapt to three different offensive coordinators in four year. He HAS had almost zero pass protection while lacking a short passing scheme to compensate for lack of care along the edge. And before the arrival of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery in Chicago, who did he have to throw the ball to?

But Cutler ALSO taken the Bears to 7-3 (before injury) and 10-6 records over the past two seasons and almost by aligning of the planets – a silly tackle attempt and Adrian Peterson’s magnificence –  failed to make the postseason in either year. One finds it hard to analyze the playoff potential of a quarterback when the quarterback is not in the playoffs consistently.

The Bears can win with Jay Cutler at quarterback. Take a breathe. They can win with Jay Cutler at quarterback. But in order for them to know the true potential of this quarterback they must make their way into the tournament and give him an opportunity to showcase his talents on the NFL’s biggest stage. That was Phil Emery’s impetus behind relieving Lovie Smith of his head coaching duties and bringing Marc Trestman across the American border. Five of six years outside the playoffs was not only a failure for the Bears organization. It was a failure for the development/analysis of the Bears quarterback.

Until Cutler is IN the postseason with consistency – like flavor of the quarterback month Joe Flacco – the jury remains out on his potential as a championship-caliber quarterback. Until that point it is all speculation. And don’t we all watch and love professional sports to avoid speculation? Isn’t guessing reserved for real estate developers, day traders and college football fans?

Cutler is 1-1 in the playoffs and he only played the first half of the second game. Six quarters hardly seems the requisite sample size to judge the potential of a quarterback with so much, well, potential. Cutler has his coach now and will have a consistent offensive vision in place for the next 3-4 years. It is time for the Bears to get into the tournament and win there. If they can’t, I’ll concede Cutler as a non-championship player. Until then I’ll reserve judgement.

Trestman Met With Cutler Pre-Hire

Adam Schefter Tweeted the following Sunday morning:

Bears QB Jay Cutler played a small part in Chicago’s HC interview process, meeting with Marc Trestman before he ultimately was hired.

If you don’t follow DaBearsBlog’s Twitter account (you should!) you missed my responses to the Tweet. Here they are:

(1) Either you believe in your quarterback (Cutler) or you don’t. No team ever wins consistently w/ shaky relationship between coach/GM & QB. (2) Whether or not you believe Cutler can lead Bears to playoffs consistently (I do) you must like Bears now operating with unified vision. (3) Will Bears suffer defensively? Answer: yes. Rod Marinelli fleeing proves the impact Lovie had on defensive side of ball. Irreplaceable. (4) Phil Emery is operating under assumption he can restock defensive pantry soundly enough for minimal hit on that side of ball. We wait & see.

 “The Harbaugh Mentality” Reaches Super Bowl

I wrote about it a week ago and it has come to fruition: “The Harbaugh Mentality” has led both brothers to be coaching in the Super Bowl. Two bits from that piece:

When Alex Smith suffered a concussion in November, Jim Harbaugh watched Colin Kaepernick shred the Chicago Bears – at that time the best defense in the league – on a remarkable Monday night. When Kaepernick won his second start against the New Orleans Saints, Harbaugh made the decision that the human tattoo parlor from Nevada, not the Utah game manager, would be his starting quarterback moving forward. It was not that Harbaugh did not believe Alex Smith was capable of winning games. Of course he is. But just winning games is not enough for teams and coaches with title aspirations.

John Harbaugh and the Baltimore Ravens have title aspirations. And with three games to go in the regular they also had an offensive coordinator who’d lost the locker room, a majority of the fan base and his favorite bar stool at Bertha’s in Fells Point. Harbaugh’s Ravens were in the pole position for a division title but that wasn’t enough. Cam Cameron was fired Monday morning, December 10th.

Let’s hope Phil Emery’s decision to fire Lovie Smith pays the same dividends.

Journey to the Grey Cup?

I don’t know the details surrounding Rod Marinelli leaving the Chicago Bears and, to the best of my knowledge, those details have not been reported elsewhere. Marinelli could certainly have remained the defensive coordinator and led one of the top ten units in the league next year. Did he not want to work for Marc Trestman? Did he resent Phil Emery for firing his boss and buddy Lovie Smith? Did the promotion of Joe DeCamillis to the utterly meaningless role of assistant head coach rub him the wrong way? Was the lure of being on Monte Kiffin’s final defensive staff in Dallas too strong? Any of these answers may be correct. Marinelli’s decision is not.

Now Halas Hall’s first true General Manager/Head Coach team – Phil Emery & Marc Trestman – must decide what coach will be charged with earning the trust of an installed veteran locker room while developing new talent on a consistent basis. It won’t be easy for a new coach to step in front of Tillman, Briggs, Urlacher, Peppers…etc. and demand the love and attention the former defensive coaches did. Perhaps no one can.

But the new defensive coordinator might be looked at as more of a caretaker position than anything else.

Marc Trestman has been hired to re-imagine the entirety of the offense: new protection schemes, new passing game, new attack. Trestman’s role is essentially to usher the Bears into the modern era of NFL football. The new defensive coordinator will have a diametrically different charge: don’t fuck up a good thing.

Will it be a promoted John Hoke? Mel Tucker? Raheem Morris? Mike Singletary? We will likely find out by the end of the day what Trestman and Emery decide. One thing we know based on the track record of these two men? The decision will be handled in a thorough, meticulous manner.